Is Turkey preparing to open a Military front against Al-Assad

[STURM]

and given the international stance i think its save to say that Assad his days are numbered.

Many months ago, people were saying the same thing. Bashir Assad may well be on his way out but then again he could somehow miraculously hold on indefinitely. Back when the Muslim Brotherhood declared war on the Baathists and Assad the elder razed Hama to the ground, it was also speculated that his days were numbered - though admittedly the situation
then was not as bad as it now.

Bashir Assad is certainly in a terrible position, he is without Arab allies, his only regional ally is under tremendous pressure, his government is shaky and he is facing rebels who are supported by the West and are hell bent on his ouster. It reminds me of 1982, when Assad the elder had to simultaneously face off Israel in Lebanon, had to duel with Saddam and at the same time with George Shultz, who was pressing Syria over Lebanon, only now its much more serious now, off course.

An intersting article that gives much food for thought.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-syria-its-not-as-simple-as-that-8201347.html

Turkish jets intercept a Syrian commercial plane which is forced to land.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/10/201210101804010971.html

http://blogs.aljazeera.com/blog/europe/nobody-turkey-wants-war-syria

 

[explorer9]

Many months ago, people were saying the same thing. Bashir Assad may well be on his way out but then again he could somehow miraculously hold on indefinitely. Back when the Muslim Brotherhood declared war on the Baathists and Assad the elder razed Hama to the ground, it was also speculated that his days were numbered - though admittedly the situation
then was not as bad as it now.

Bashir Assad is certainly in a terrible position, he is without Arab allies, his only regional ally is under tremendous pressure, his government is shaky and he is facing rebels who are supported by the West and are hell bent on his ouster. It reminds me of 1982, when Assad the elder had to simultaneously face off Israel in Lebanon, had to duel with Saddam and at the same time with George Shultz, who was pressing Syria over Lebanon, only now its much more serious now, off course.

An intersting article that gives much food for thought.

Plucky little Turkey standing up to evil Syria? It's not as simple as that - Robert Fisk - Commentators - The Independent

Turkish jets intercept a Syrian commercial plane which is forced to land.

Turkey diverts Syrian plane to Ankara - Europe - Al Jazeera English

Nobody in Turkey wants war with Syria - Al Jazeera Blogs

Russian support, both diplomatic and armed is vital for Basher’s survival, with Pantsir missiles and Mig war planes Al-Assad and daily threats provided much needed victuals for regime’s endurance. The forced landed aircraft luggage inspected and authorities confiscated communication devices for military use later allowed the plane to fly to Syria.

The Turkish government has put its armed forces into a “high state of readiness”.
MURAT YETK

 

[explorer9]

3 air defense bases were captured this week by the anti Al-Assad forces around Idlib, Homs and Aleppo. Is turkey preparing for assault?

 

[Deep_Web_Guy]

3 air defense bases were captured this week by the anti Al-Assad forces around Idlib, Homs and Aleppo. Is turkey preparing for assault?

Can you cite the bases taken and source of info? Very interesting development.

 

[explorer9]

Can you cite the bases taken and source of info? Very interesting development.

Eastern Ghouta area outskirt of Damascus, near the town of Douma

Air defence base east of Aleppo

Maarat al-Nuaman

The sources are genuine but can not be verified by independent sources.

 

[surpreme]

This civil war in Syria is heading no where. True the rebels are making little hayway. AlsoTurkey is threating Syria that all it doing. I have to agree with someone I read on a post which states that the Syrian Army if it fighting rebels at the border you going to have mortar go off track. Another thing we don't know if rebels are doing this to get Turkey involved. To go into a all-out war with Syria would not be wise at the time. The Syria military is breaking apart slowly. All Turkey has to do right now is wait until the Syrian military breaks itself apart. The worst nightmare of any army is when soldiers start to defect. The morale of the Syrian military right now is down because of fighting it own army. Now it getting to into Sunni against Alewites which is dangerous and cause what I called hate battles. This is by far more dangerous than one can imagine. Turkey must be wise on what it going to do because it can drag itself into a fight but later on it will have to do police work something to think about before it decide to strike Syria.

 

[explorer9]

This civil war in Syria is heading no where. True the rebels are making little hayway. AlsoTurkey is threating Syria that all it doing. I have to agree with someone I read on a post which states that the Syrian Army if it fighting rebels at the border you going to have mortar go off track. Another thing we don't know if rebels are doing this to get Turkey involved. To go into a all-out war with Syria would not be wise at the time. The Syria military is breaking apart slowly. All Turkey has to do right now is wait until the Syrian military breaks it self apart. The worst nightmare of any army is when soldiers start to defect. The morale of the Syrian military right now is down because of fighting it own army. Now it getting to into Sunni against Alewites which is dangerous and cause what I called hate battles. This is by far more dangerous than one can imagine. Turkey must be wise on what it going to do because it can drag itself into a fight but later on it will have to do police work something to think about before it decide to strike Syria.

The Syrian conflict is already an approximately two year old and you rightly stated that Turkey did well by applying waiting strategy and let the Syrian armed forces get weakened. As we all know that with the all kind of help from Russians and Iranians the war machinery of Basher Al-Assad is still quite effective and strong. Turkey cannot wait endlessly they will have to chip in the conflict at one time to get the favourable result. The most imminent dilemma for Turkish Armed forces is not to thrash the Syrian regime but to handle the aftermath as the conflict has taken the sectarian color.

The impending conflict has already been a great setback for Turkish economic and strategic influence in the region that makes the Turks desperate to solve the Syrian quagmire with the minimum loses.

 

[STURM]

This civil war in Syria is heading no where.

Many said the same thing over Libya, prior to NATO airpower and aid to the rebels making a difference. Something unexpected could happen in Syria, with or without foreign state interference that could rapidly change things, it's really hard to say as many foreign countries have a stake at what happens next.

T Now it getting to into Sunni against Alewites which is dangerous and cause what I called hate battles.

Absolutely no surprises here, from 'Day One' it was inevitable that it would become sectarian. With Syria consisting of a Sunni majority, it was a forgone conclusion that this would happen.

Due to the Kurdish issue, Turkey is extremely concerned over what happens in Syria, it's not all due to concerns over human rights or the plight of Syrian civilians caught in the cross-fire. Turkey in the past had previously threatened to enter Syria, due to accusations on Ankara's part that Syria aided the PKK.

As we all know that with the all kind of help from Russians and Iranians the war machinery of Basher Al-Assad is still quite effective and strong.

Help from Iran will be mostly symbolic to underline the importance of the strategic relationship that was established between both countries, when Assad the elder was Iran's only Arab ally during the war with Iraq and when he was squaring off with Saddam in the Lebanon - where both had their respective proxies - and when both were vying for influence amongst the various Palestinian groups. Short of foreign intervention, the day when Assad's government really falls apart is when his core 'Alawite' units desert or even overthrow him - if and when that happens, no help from Russia or Iran will make a difference. No doubt, there are some Pasdaran in Syria but the Syrians hardly need any help in the art of killing, they have had ample practice in the past. Interesting how Hilary Clinton gives a press briefing in which she accuses Hezbollah of sending fighters and aid to Syria but makes absolute no mention of the part played foreign volunteer elements - most of whom are not liberal democrats or 'western' friendly - who have infiltrated into Syria to fight the Baathists alongside the FSA and other rebel groups. In the unlikely event that Assad leaves or is overthrown now, these volunteers can't be expected to pack up and leave.

Libya is a prime example of how things are not as clear cut as they seem.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/10/2012101764217822832.html

An article on Turke'ys role.

http://ericmargolis.com/2012/10/turkey-totally-loses-its-cool-over-syria/

 

[explorer9]

Many said the same thing over Libya, prior to NATO airpower and aid to the rebels making a difference. Something unexpected could happen in Syria, with or without foreign state interference that could rapidly change things, it's really hard to say as many foreign countries have a stake at what happens next.



Absolutely no surprises here, from 'Day One' it was inevitable that it would become sectarian. With Syria consisting of a Sunni majority, it was a forgone conclusion that this would happen.

Due to the Kurdish issue, Turkey is extremely concerned over what happens in Syria, it's not all due to concerns over human rights or the plight of Syrian civilians caught in the cross-fire. Turkey in the past had previously threatened to enter Syria, due to accusations on Ankara's part that Syria aided the PKK.



Help from Iran will be mostly symbolic to underline the importance of the strategic relationship that was established between both countries, when Assad the elder was Iran's only Arab ally during the war with Iraq and when he was squaring off with Saddam in the Lebanon - where both had their respective proxies - and when both were vying for influence amongst the various Palestinian groups. Short of foreign intervention, the day when Assad's government really falls apart is when his core 'Alawite' units desert or even overthrow him - if and when that happens, no help from Russia or Iran will make a difference. No doubt, there are some Pasdaran in Syria but the Syrians hardly need any help in the art of killing, they have had ample practice in the past. Interesting how Hilary Clinton gives a press briefing in which she accuses Hezbollah of sending fighters and aid to Syria but makes absolute no mention of the part played foreign volunteer elements - most of whom are not liberal democrats or 'western' friendly - who have infiltrated into Syria to fight the Baathists alongside the FSA and other rebel groups. In the unlikely event that Assad leaves or is overthrown now, these volunteers can't be expected to pack up and leave.

Libya is a prime example of how things are not as clear cut as they seem.

Evidence of mass murder after Gaddafi's death - Africa - Al Jazeera English

An article on Turke'ys role.

TURKEY TOTALLY LOSES ITS COOL OVER SYRIA « Eric Margolis

Ultimately Al-Assad will have to go but when his departure will eventually take place? That is the big question for all the political and geostrategic observers. By each passing day Turks are getting further nervous. Their main objective is the quick regime change as soon as possible is being delayed by big margin. The main hindrances are Russians and Iranians and the far-flung Chinese who are towing the line based on anti Americanism. There is no doubt that Russians or Iranians cannot stop the inevitable but they can and they will prolong the fall of al-Assad. Russian, Iranian and most importantly Iraqi (only country having long land border with Syria) support provides lifeline to embattled Bathist regime.

The Alawite coup theory has been discussed by many experts since the Syrian uprising turned in to armed conflict but Al-Assad has not only managed the core Alawite Republican guards but the predominantly Sunnite units and most importantly the Syrian Air –Force which almost fully consists of Sunnite officers and Airmen. The core of regime is still intact and there is no sign of any negotiated settlement that guarantees the ouster of Basher Al-Assad

Article: By M K Bhadrakumar – October 15, 2012

Syria could be Turkey’s Vietnam

The recent polls have repeatedly shown that the Turkish public opinion is strongly opposed to any military intervention in Syria. The curious part is that this opinion is present even within the ruling party, AKP, despite PM Recep Erdogan’s “forward policy” toward Syria.
The prominent Islamist daily Zaman, which is identified with the AKP’s ideological guru Fethullah Gulen (living in exile in the United States), has been lately featuring articles warning Erdogan from going overboard over the Syrian situation. Zaman’s exclusive interview today with former Turkish FM Yasar Yakis becomes highly significant.
Yakis is a highly respected former diplomat with deep experience in the Middle East affairs; in fact, he could be considered as one of Turkey’s best “Arabists”, having served as ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Syria. Most important, he is an MP belonging to the AKP and he is considered close to President Abdullah Gul (who in a meaningful recent remark described the Syrian situation as a “civil war”).
Yakis’ expert opinion is that Syria could turn out to be Turkey’s “Vietnam”. He rubbishes the idea of a “safe zone” within Syria adjacent to the Turkish border because that region is Kurdish-dominated and Turkish troops will have to be stationed there right inside Syria for that zone to be kept “free”.
But, Yakis warns, Syrian Kurds will inflict a million cuts on the Turkish soldiers deployed there, who will increasingly find themselves trapped in a quagmire.
Yakis flags the danger of Syria’s fragmentation. Interestingly, he sees western intervention in Syria as unlikely. A Mitt Romney administration in the US might begin to supply arms to the Syrian rebels, but not otherwise.
His warns against “proxy wars”; these wars will be fought on the basis of the respective interests of outside powers — that is, it is entirely up to Turkey to coolly weigh where its interests would lie even if it were to act in concert with the US.

 

[Beatmaster]

Article: By M K Bhadrakumar – October 15, 2012

Syria could be Turkey’s Vietnam

The recent polls have repeatedly shown that the Turkish public opinion is strongly opposed to any military intervention in Syria. The curious part is that this opinion is present even within the ruling party, AKP, despite PM Recep Erdogan’s “forward policy” toward Syria.
The prominent Islamist daily Zaman, which is identified with the AKP’s ideological guru Fethullah Gulen (living in exile in the United States), has been lately featuring articles warning Erdogan from going overboard over the Syrian situation. Zaman’s exclusive interview today with former Turkish FM Yasar Yakis becomes highly significant.
Yakis is a highly respected former diplomat with deep experience in the Middle East affairs; in fact, he could be considered as one of Turkey’s best “Arabists”, having served as ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Syria. Most important, he is an MP belonging to the AKP and he is considered close to President Abdullah Gul (who in a meaningful recent remark described the Syrian situation as a “civil war”).
Yakis’ expert opinion is that Syria could turn out to be Turkey’s “Vietnam”. He rubbishes the idea of a “safe zone” within Syria adjacent to the Turkish border because that region is Kurdish-dominated and Turkish troops will have to be stationed there right inside Syria for that zone to be kept “free”.
But, Yakis warns, Syrian Kurds will inflict a million cuts on the Turkish soldiers deployed there, who will increasingly find themselves trapped in a quagmire.
Yakis flags the danger of Syria’s fragmentation. Interestingly, he sees western intervention in Syria as unlikely. A Mitt Romney administration in the US might begin to supply arms to the Syrian rebels, but not otherwise.
His warns against “proxy wars”; these wars will be fought on the basis of the respective interests of outside powers — that is, it is entirely up to Turkey to coolly weigh where its interests would lie even if it were to act in concert with the US.

This is utterly propaganda imo, it does not hold any ground.
That said any intervention will be a difficult one, so it will not be a cake walk.
I see Syria rather enter a another civil war within the current war itself as warlords and such try to get a piece of the pie.
But in the event that Turkey wants to step in, the days of the ones big Syrian army is gone.
Obviously there will be religious and ethnic issues so thats a given but a Turkish version of Vietnam? no way never going to happen.
On top of that if Turkey would step in and removes the current power then Turkey will be seen as a hero for the bulk of the nation, i am sure that the rebels and opposition would rather see Turkey doing the hard work then fighting assad themselfs.

 

[Tanay]

Kurds in Turkish camps

Kurds in Turkish camps

In Turkey everyone is tired from that useless and groundless clash with Syria. Erdogan ordered to open camps where Syrian 'rebels' may have a rest and training ground, but I never saw there Syrians (I deliver supplies there). The only people I saw there were Kurds, not only Syrian but also Turkish ones and I have to say that Erdogan's game with fire is a big danger for Turkey because at any moment the Syrian Kurds may join Turkish Kurds against us and the situation can become even worse not only with Syria but also inside Turkey. I fear Syrians will be accused in it while they indeed are not related to it and the fact that Erdogan support and arm Kurds will stay unnoticed...

 

[explorer9]

Kurds in Turkish camps

In Turkey everyone is tired from that useless and groundless clash with Syria. Erdogan ordered to open camps where Syrian 'rebels' may have a rest and training ground, but I never saw there Syrians (I deliver supplies there). The only people I saw there were Kurds, not only Syrian but also Turkish ones and I have to say that Erdogan's game with fire is a big danger for Turkey because at any moment the Syrian Kurds may join Turkish Kurds against us and the situation can become even worse not only with Syria but also inside Turkey. I fear Syrians will be accused in it while they indeed are not related to it and the fact that Erdogan support and arm Kurds will stay unnoticed...

Today, tomorrow or day after tomorrow, Turkey will have to address and needs to get the permanent solution of its own impending Kurdish problem. Erdogan and his AK party is moving towards the right direction to solve the Kurdish issue on one way by introducing many new programs for its Kurdish people and on the other way by removing the age old Turkish laws assimilation related to Turkish Nationalism. Turkey has also nurtured more than amicable relationship with Iraqi Kurds.

The situation of Turkish Kurds is much better than the Kurds of Syria and Iran and most of the Turkish Kurds knows that. For most of the Ottoman history Kurds lived in peace with the fellow Turks, Turkish authorities will have to hasten the implementation of the Kurdish initiative to counter the aftermath of Syrian crisis.

 

[My2Cents]

Kurds in Turkish camps

In Turkey everyone is tired from that useless and groundless clash with Syria. Erdogan ordered to open camps where Syrian 'rebels' may have a rest and training ground, but I never saw there Syrians (I deliver supplies there). The only people I saw there were Kurds, not only Syrian but also Turkish ones and I have to say that Erdogan's game with fire is a big danger for Turkey because at any moment the Syrian Kurds may join Turkish Kurds against us and the situation can become even worse not only with Syria but also inside Turkey. I fear Syrians will be accused in it while they indeed are not related to it and the fact that Erdogan support and arm Kurds will stay unnoticed...

Are you sure that it was not a refugee camp, but an actual guerrilla training camp (i.e. almost exclusively younger males, obvious weapons training, etc.)? It would make sense that there would be a lot of Kurds in the refugee camps because the region just across the border is where most the Kurds in Syria live, so they have the shortest distance to travel to escape the fighting. It would also make sense for Turkey to concentrate the Kurdish refugees in a few camps if they want to avoid training and equipping as guerrillas. Guerrillas have always illegally used refugee camps for R&R and as a source of supplies and funding (mostly stolen by intimidation) and recruits (sometimes involuntary).

The Turkish people do not want their army to invade Syria, but that is far different from defending the border from Syrian forces (patrols and artillery) crossing the border and killing civilians or refugees. Once might be an accident, twice may be coincidence, 3 times is definitely enemy action. And these acts, mostly Syrian artillery attacks and Turkish counter battery fire, have been going on for several days now.

However, there is likely to be a huge raid launched from Turkey into Syria at the close of the war in order to secure Assad’s chemical weapons and then withdraw as rapidly as possible. Probably in such an event that the largest contingent, but not the majority, will be Turkish troops.

 

[Bastian]

Are you sure that it was not a refugee camp, but an actual guerrilla training camp (i.e. almost exclusively younger males, obvious weapons training, etc.)? It would make sense that there would be a lot of Kurds in the refugee camps because the region just across the border is where most the Kurds in Syria live, so they have the shortest distance to travel to escape the fighting. It would also make sense for Turkey to concentrate the Kurdish refugees in a few camps if they want to avoid training and equipping as guerrillas. Guerrillas have always illegally used refugee camps for R&R and as a source of supplies and funding (mostly stolen by intimidation) and recruits (sometimes involuntary).

The Turkish people do not want their army to invade Syria, but that is far different from defending the border from Syrian forces (patrols and artillery) crossing the border and killing civilians or refugees. Once might be an accident, twice may be coincidence, 3 times is definitely enemy action. And these acts, mostly Syrian artillery attacks and Turkish counter battery fire, have been going on for several days now.

However, there is likely to be a huge raid launched from Turkey into Syria at the close of the war in order to secure Assad’s chemical weapons and then withdraw as rapidly as possible. Probably in such an event that the largest contingent, but not the majority, will be Turkish troops.

If Turkey were to secure Syria's chemical weapons it would need to be fast before the Syrian army could deploy and used it to repell the Turkish force as a means of "self defence". Turkey would've need an advantage of surprise and foreign intel if it planned for a raid like that.

 

[explorer9]

The last thing Turkey wished was the armed clash between anti Al-Assad fighters and Syrian Kurds along side its restive border with Syria. It seems that Syrian regime has succeeded in sowing the seed of distrust between Arab fighters & Syrian kurds.

According to Al-Arabia news :

Syrian fighters clashed with Kurdish militia in the northern city of Aleppo, leaving 30 dead and around 200 captured, a watchdog said on Saturday, sparking fears of a new front in an already fractured country.

The fighting between armed fighters and members of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), erupted on Friday in the majority Kurdish neighborhood of Ashrafiyeh, it said.

“There were 30 people -- Arabs and Kurds -- killed in the fighting, including 22 combatants from both sides,” the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said in a statement, adding that Ashrafiyeh was still under PYD militia control.

Some 200 people were captured, all but 20 of them by the fighters, the Observatory said.

see the link below for full text of news article
Fears of new front as Syria fighters clash with Kurds

 

[My2Cents]

If Turkey were to secure Syria's chemical weapons it would need to be fast before the Syrian army could deploy and used it to repell the Turkish force as a means of "self defence". Turkey would've need an advantage of surprise and foreign intel if it planned for a raid like that.

Won’t have to happen is Assad wins, which is increasingly unlikely. If Assad’s forces lose there won’t be a Syrian army to deploy the chemical weapons, unless you are referring to the various al-Qaeda related groups. Then the most effective weapon that the allies could deploy against the troops loyal to Assad and still protecting the chemical weapons would be a quick, protected, trip out of Syria for them and their families if they cooperate. It is highly likely that Assad also has a similar contingency deal worked out for himself and his family (unless the ICC interferes too much and blocks such a deal, which will probably be the end of them if it results in chemical weapons in al-Qaeda hands) and would be actively supporting the allies at that point.

The raid will undoubtedly consist of 2 elements, a sudden aerial assault to secure the manufacturing and storage facilities before they can be disbursed of deployed, followed by a much larger ground element to relieve them and remove the weapons. Expect non-Turkish NATO troops in the lead to minimize the Turk vs. Arab conflict

These will be troops well prepared for chemical warfare, if for no other reason that the decades old warheads are likely to have started leaking. Studies have shown that chemical weapons have minimal effect on prepared troops, but will cause widespread civilian deaths and agricultural damage where they are deployed inside Syria.

 

[STURM]

It is highly likely that Assad also has a similar contingency deal worked out for himself and his family (unless the ICC interferes too much and blocks such a deal, which will probably be the end of them if it results in chemical weapons in al-Qaeda hands) and would be actively supporting the allies at that point.

Two things come into play here.

1. Assad might not be able to leave even if he wants to. The fortunes of the Alawite community are so closely linked and dependent on the Baathist government that they might not let Assad go. Imagine a scenario where Assad wants to be driven to an airport for his flight in exile but finds that the Alawite driver refuses to drive him! Prior to the Baathists gaining power the Alawites had a rough time at the hands of the Sunni majority, if Assad leaves we can expect things to get a wee bit unpleasant for them.

2. As events of the years have shown, a deal made today does not guarentee that the desposed 'tyrant' will not be brought to the ICJ some years later. It won't be like Idi Amin, who was allowed to retire in comfort in Saudi without fear of being extradited. Assad knows this so he has nothing to lose by continuing the fight.

Unless something happens that results is things being drastically altered, I expect the war to go on indefinately. The biggest blow that can befall Assad at the moment is not losing more ground or losing more troops through defections but an Iran that is severely weakened by sanctions or one that capitulates to Western demands as a result of military action or internal trouble - people tend to forget or overlook the fact that the current situation in Syria is closely related to Iran. Iran's enemies know that targeting Assad severely hurts the Iranians. With regards to the FSA and the 'rebels', the West can't have its cake and eat it as well. The 'rebel's consists of diifferent groups with varying interests and motivations, the post Assad Syria that they want to form may be completely at odds with what the West wants. Which brings us back to one basic fundamental problem, will the Syrians who form a post-Assad government be able to call the shots without outside interference or will the West attempt to shape Syria into a 'friendly' country to suits self-interests?

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZsD4OvLy5I"]CrossTalk: Assad State of Affairs - YouTube[/nomedia]


[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSok1Q0y76Y"]The war in Syria will be long and bloody: Robert Fisk interview - YouTube[/nomedia]

 

[My2Cents]

1. Assad might not be able to leave even if he wants to. The fortunes of the Alawite community are so closely linked and dependent on the Baathist government that they might not let Assad go. Imagine a scenario where Assad wants to be driven to an airport for his flight in exile but finds that the Alawite driver refuses to drive him! Prior to the Baathists gaining power the Alawites had a rough time at the hands of the Sunni majority, if Assad leaves we can expect things to get a wee bit unpleasant for them.

It is doubtful that Assad would be willing to leave until things have gotten extremely unpleasant, by which time his main concern will be being sold to the revolutionaries by his fellow Alawites in hopes of not being slaughtered in return. The driver will be a relative with a seat on the plane.

2. As events of the years have shown, a deal made today does not guarentee that the desposed 'tyrant' will not be brought to the ICJ some years later. It won't be like Idi Amin, who was allowed to retire in comfort in Saudi without fear of being extradited. Assad knows this so he has nothing to lose by continuing the fight.

The ICJ is a noble idea refusing to face up to an ugly reality. If there were true justice the people who create and enforce its policy of steadfast refusal to allow any kind of negotiated settlement for it would be charged with war crimes themselves. Their actions force every revolutionary movement and tinpot dictator for life to go down fighting creating untold additional casualties and human suffering.

Unless something happens that results is things being drastically altered, I expect the war to go on indefinately. The biggest blow that can befall Assad at the moment is not losing more ground or losing more troops through defections but an Iran that is severely weakened by sanctions or one that capitulates to Western demands as a result of military action or internal trouble - people tend to forget or overlook the fact that the current situation in Syria is closely related to Iran. Iran's enemies know that targeting Assad severely hurts the Iranians. With regards to the FSA and the 'rebels', the West can't have its cake and eat it as well. The 'rebel's consists of diifferent groups with varying interests and motivations, the post Assad Syria that they want to form may be completely at odds with what the West wants. Which brings us back to one basic fundamental problem, will the Syrians who form a post-Assad government be able to call the shots without outside interference or will the West attempt to shape Syria into a 'friendly' country to suits self-interests?

Possibly. The controlling factor will be logistics. With the rebels controlling most the roads, and looking to control the cities soon, Iran will face an increasing difficulty getting enough supplies to Assad. The question is can the Alawites come up with a defensible enclave adjacent to a border porous enough to let them survive, or will they just be surrounded and eventually starved out or overrun.

 

[swerve]

Any Alawite enclave would have a coast & ports, & could have borders with both Turkey & Lebanon. Both coastal governorates of Syria (Latakia & Tartus) have an Alawite majority, & a large Christian minority which the Alawites could try to co-opt as allies. There are far more Alawites than the populations of those governorates, though, & large Alawite-dominated districts immediately inland of them, so one would expect the borders of any Alawite enclave to include the western parts of Idlib, Hama & Homs governorates, & there to be a great deal of flight of Alawites from other regions, & of Sunnis from the Alawite-dominated region.

Note that the Turkish province of Hatay is about 50% Alawite, so any Alawite enclave would have sympathisers immediately across the border.

Looking at the region from Lebanon to the head of the Persian Gulf, one starts with a coast backed by hills & mountains, inhabited by a mixture of religions & sects as far as Damascus, then a plain filled with Sunni Arabs from there over to Baghdad, with Kurds to the NE, & Shia Arabs from Baghdad SE to the Gulf. If anyone had ever had the sense to organise it federally, it might have had a chance of some sort of peace.

 

[STURM]

If anyone had ever had the sense to organise it federally, it might have had a chance of some sort of peace.

If I recall correctly, post WW2 there were calls from various Arab leaders/nationalists to have a giant Arab state that would have comprised Saudi, the Gulf states, Jordan, Iraq and Syria. Apart from being very impractical to implement, this move was resisted by the outside powers. A huge part of the problem is due to artificial borders that were created by France and Britain - to safeguard their national interests - which resulted in people from the same sects or tribes being displaced and geographically seperated.

Modern day Lebanon for instance was part of Syria until it was carved out into a separate state by the French, which is the main reason why we have Alawites in Lebanon. Hatay was part of Syria until it was annexed by Turkey. We also have examples of artifial borders in areas where there are Sunni majorities, like in Jordan, which is where the hashemite settled after being kicked out of Hejaz, where they were originally from. King Faisal of Iraq who was shot with his family after being desposed in a left wing coup, was King Hussin's [of Jordan's] cousin.