Is Turkey preparing to open a Military front against Al-Assad

[explorer9]

Mortar firings from Syrian forces on the Turkish side of the border killed many Turkish citizens. Turkish Media is highlighting the news by news room discussion and flashing the damage caused by the mortar shells. Is Turkish media creating the popular sentiments fro military campaign against the forces of Syrian leader Bashar Al-Assad.....

 

[explorer9]

Mortar firings from Syrian forces on the Turkish side of the border killed many Turkish citizens. Turkish Media is highlighting the news by news room discussion and flashing the damage caused by the mortar shells. Is Turkish media creating the popular sentiments fro military campaign against the forces of Syrian leader Bashar Al-Assad.....

Targets in Syria has been bombed by Turkish artillery in return to a deadly attack by Syrian forces which killed 5 people in southeastern Turkey.

 

[TrangleC]

I'm not a conspiracy nut, but this smells a lot like a Red Flag attack.
Assad's people aren't that stupid.
Way more likely that it was the rebels, maybe with a little "western" help.

 

[explorer9]

I'm not a conspiracy nut, but this smells a lot like a Red Flag attack.
Assad's people aren't that stupid.
Way more likely that it was the rebels, maybe with a little "western" help.

May be , but the Jet downed was claimed by the Al-Assad himself. It can work on both ways , Turkey has responded with artillery attack and some Syrian soldiers died. PM Erdogan signed the draft bill for cross border attack and Parliament is discussing the bill right now.

 

[TrangleC]

May be , but the Jet downed was claimed by the Al-Assad himself. It can work on both ways , Turkey has responded with artillery attack and some Syrian soldiers died. PM Erdogan signed the draft bill for cross border attack and Parliament is discussing the bill right now.

Shooting down a jet is something different, of course.
But just shelling a militarily superior neighbor and a member of NATO, giving those who want to intervene for weeks an excuse, that is a bit too stupid.

PS: I meant a "False Flag attack", not a Red Flag attack, hehe. I was reading an article on the Red Flag exercise recently. I guess that is where that mistake came from.

 

[explorer9]

Shooting down a jet is something different, of course.
But just shelling a militarily superior neighbor and a member of NATO, giving those who want to intervene for weeks an excuse, that is a bit too stupid.

PS: I meant a "False Flag attack", not a Red Flag attack, hehe. I was reading an article on the Red Flag exercise recently. I guess that is where that mistake came from.

The Turkish Parliament has passed a motion allowing the military to conduct cross-border raids into Syria. Now the Government has the parliamentary approval to retaliate- instigate the attack across the border.

Let's see the coming few days are important and how Russia pro-acts is also to be watched closely.

 

[fretburner]

Shooting down a jet is something different, of course.
But just shelling a militarily superior neighbor and a member of NATO, giving those who want to intervene for weeks an excuse, that is a bit too stupid.

Well, based on this Yahoo article, the Syrians appeared to have admitted to the shelling:

For its part, Syria admitted it was responsible for the shelling that killed five people in Turkey and formally apologized for the deaths, a top Turkish official said.

 

[explorer9]

Well, based on this Yahoo article, the Syrians appeared to have admitted to the shelling:

For its part, Syria admitted it was responsible for the shelling that killed five people in Turkey and formally apologized for the deaths, a top Turkish official said.

Turkish authorities has confirmed that official apology reached to them. So no false flagging now Turkish authorities will use this Parliamentary mandate for future incursion inside the Syrian territory.

 

[swerve]

More likely, they'll use the parliamentary mandate as a threat to inhibit any more hot-headed or careless Syrian troops from firing across the border.

The Turks shelled Syrian army positions after the mortar attack, which killed a woman, her three children, & her sister.

BTW, five isn't 'many'. It's a few, or (at most) several. And artillery doesn't bomb, it shells or fires on.

 

[explorer9]

More likely, they'll use the parliamentary mandate as a threat to inhibit any more hot-headed or careless Syrian troops from firing across the border.

The Turks shelled Syrian army positions after the mortar attack, which killed a woman, her three children, & her sister.

BTW, five isn't 'many'. It's a few, or (at most) several. And artillery doesn't bomb, it shells or fires on.

Turkey isn't going to throw all their development into the dustbin by waging a full-fledged war. And you rightly anticipated that it will be used to threaten Al-Assad or most probably to create safe heaven near the sectors of its border with Syria.

 

[Waylander]

I'm not a conspiracy nut, but this smells a lot like a Red Flag attack.
Assad's people aren't that stupid.
Way more likely that it was the rebels, maybe with a little "western" help.

Well, since the downing of the RF-4 Syrian stray bullets and the occassional mortar landed on Turkish soil including the killing of Syrian refugees on the Turkish side of the border. Remember that the border area right up to the border checkpoint is heavily fought over by rebel and loyalist forces.

Some mortar or artillery shells going wide and hitting the Turkish town right behind the checkpoint isn't far fetched. This time the shells killed and wounded several civilians.

IMO Turkey reacts rather calm. They shelled and bombed several military installations in the border area and went before the UN and NATO. That's exactly the way everyone should react in such a situation. A limited bit strong response after staying passive for some time while at the same time going through the appropiate channels in the UN and NATO.

 

[explorer9]

Well, since the downing of the RF-4 Syrian stray bullets and the occassional mortar landed on Turkish soil including the killing of Syrian refugees on the Turkish side of the border. Remember that the border area right up to the border checkpoint is heavily fought over by rebel and loyalist forces.

Some mortar or artillery shells going wide and hitting the Turkish town right behind the checkpoint isn't far fetched. This time the shells killed and wounded several civilians.

IMO Turkey reacts rather calm. They shelled and bombed several military installations in the border area and went before the UN and NATO. That's exactly the way everyone should react in such a situation. A limited bit strong response after staying passive for some time while at the same time going through the appropiate channels in the UN and NATO.

I have observed that Turks are very pragmatic and react with rationale. They always route through appropriate channel in responding to the crisis situation. They handled the Mavi Marmara killings by Israeli commandos with measured response and taking the lea gal route locally and internationally.

 

[FirstSpear]

I have observed that Turks are very pragmatic and react with rationale. They always route through appropriate channel in responding to the crisis situation. They handled the Mavi Marmara killings by Israeli commandos with measured response and taking the lea gal route locally and internationally.

Respectfully, don't tell the people of Cyprus nor the Kurds that the Turks follow legal channels. Never mind the Armenians whom the Turks still claim either did not die or died of natural causes...

 

[explorer9]

Respectfully, don't tell the people of Cyprus nor the Kurds that the Turks follow legal channels. Never mind the Armenians whom the Turks still claim either did not die or died of natural causes...

I do not like the thread turned to be a battle ground of history. Read the Treaty of Lausanne (1923) and development before the 1974 invasion of Cyprus. Yes imposition of Turkishness (language& culture) on Kurds or any other minority by the founding fathers of Republic was a gross violation of human rights and incumbent politicians are on the course of correction by granting ethnic language rights and renaming the Kurdish cities from Turkish to Kurdish. AFA Armenian issue is concerned it is highly exaggerated for political reasons rather than humanitarian.

 

[the concerned]

Just wondering they've also crossed over the Lebanese border couldn't the UN force that was put there to seperate Israel and Hizbollah be deployed to the Syrian border to prevent these violations aswell.

 

[My2Cents]

Just wondering they've also crossed over the Lebanese border couldn't the UN force that was put there to seperate Israel and Hizbollah be deployed to the Syrian border to prevent these violations aswell.

Not without a vote in the Security Council. Those forces are strictly for observing the actions of the 2 sides, and are not permitted to physically intervene. France, and probably the UK and USA, would insist on language allowing armed response to attacks upon them, China and Russia would veto any such measure, resulting in a deadlock. Lebanon is certain to object to a loss of protection from Israeli raids, and Israel would probably object to the area being left open to Hezholah, which is allied with Syria.

So – No.

 

[Beatmaster]

Not without a vote in the Security Council. Those forces are strictly for observing the actions of the 2 sides, and are not permitted to physically intervene. France, and probably the UK and USA, would insist on language allowing armed response to attacks upon them, China and Russia would veto any such measure, resulting in a deadlock. Lebanon is certain to object to a loss of protection from Israeli raids, and Israel would probably object to the area being left open to Hezholah, which is allied with Syria.

So – No.

True, on the other hand mister Erdocan (Or what is his name) has warned Syria multiple times and because its Turkey's backyard it is of strategic and economic interest to see things in Syria calm down.

However what i wonder about is the fact that some said this might be a red flag thing, initiated by Syrian forces, but what if the rebels did try to draw Turkey into the fight? I mean Turkey has a rather modern and big army and they would be perfectly capable of bringing Assad down.

So from a rebel point of view Turkey would be most welcome to "defend" themselfs and destroy as much Assad troops as needed, which would GREATLY aid the Rebel forces in their cause.

So far Assad is using every trick in the book up to horror tactics to subdue the rebels.
But at the same time Assad should know that if Turkey is going to join the fight (For whatever reason) that he is in REALLY serious trouble.
I mean Turkey has enough trouble already and their army is perhaps not on par with other EU members, however compared to Assad its forces Turkey is as we call it a bridge to far for Assad.

And the Rebels know this and i can see them using this to draw Turkey into the fight.
Which directly means = game over Assad.

 

[Beatmaster]

Not without a vote in the Security Council. Those forces are strictly for observing the actions of the 2 sides, and are not permitted to physically intervene. France, and probably the UK and USA, would insist on language allowing armed response to attacks upon them, China and Russia would veto any such measure, resulting in a deadlock. Lebanon is certain to object to a loss of protection from Israeli raids, and Israel would probably object to the area being left open to Hezholah, which is allied with Syria.

So – No.

* Btw the vote of the UN/Security Council is the legal way to deal with this, and one could say that this vote actually saves Assad to some degree.
But ill bet my black socks that IF Syrian forces would take the fight to far over the border (Either willing or pushed by stupidity or even due a rebel setup)
That Turkey will listen to the UN council to deal with this the legal way, knowing that the UN will support them.
On the other hand Turkey has the ability and internal laws in place to strike on Syria in full force if it feels that it must defend national interest and to protect its civilians.
So my point here Turkey is deffo going to play ball in cooperation with the UN/NATO.
But if casualties keep mounting on their side of the border then they will act with or without UN/NATO support.

Turkey authorized cross-border incursions into Syria when "necessary"
And that gives them the legal ground to basically crack down on Syrian/Rebel forces on Syrian soil and this could be a very dangerous situation for Assad, given the fact that if his forces keep killing Turkey civilians (Willingly or unwillingly) Turkey can and will respond in ways that can bring down Assad or at least seriously cripple him.

 

[explorer9]

Actually in modern warfare Nation needs the majority backing of its populace to back the war. In the case of Turkey most of the people might be Sympathetic to Syrian opposition but are very much hesitant to go into all-out war against Bashar Al-Assad's forces. In my view this whole shelling issue is to create a public anger in the masses for war support (i am not discussing the ethics or morality of war).

The second and equally important point is the role of Moscow if & when all-out war invoked by Turkey alone. Here Turkey needs full military backing (not the mare words of alliance & partnership) of NATO to counter Russians. My analysis based on the current situation pronounces that the whole ongoing exercise is enforced to create a platform after November 6 operation against Bashar Al-Assad.

 

[My2Cents]

* Btw the vote of the UN/Security Council is the legal way to deal with this, and one could say that this vote actually saves Assad to some degree.
But ill bet my black socks that IF Syrian forces would take the fight to far over the border (Either willing or pushed by stupidity or even due a rebel setup)
That Turkey will listen to the UN council to deal with this the legal way, knowing that the UN will support them.
On the other hand Turkey has the ability and internal laws in place to strike on Syria in full force if it feels that it must defend national interest and to protect its civilians.
So my point here Turkey is deffo going to play ball in cooperation with the UN/NATO.
But if casualties keep mounting on their side of the border then they will act with or without UN/NATO support.

Turkey authorized cross-border incursions into Syria when "necessary"
And that gives them the legal ground to basically crack down on Syrian/Rebel forces on Syrian soil and this could be a very dangerous situation for Assad, given the fact that if his forces keep killing Turkey civilians (Willingly or unwillingly) Turkey can and will respond in ways that can bring down Assad or at least seriously cripple him.

The vote of the UN Security Council would only needed to re-task the UN observers on the Israel-Lebanon border. The UN Security Council would have little relevance to Turkey’s response to a Syrian attack on them, that would come under self defense, which is allowed under the UN charter.

Turkey has the capabilities to swing the battle against Assad, but potentially at the price of a considerable number loss of aircraft (as demonstrated by the F-4 shot down). The other NATO powers can supply the additional capacity for SEAD missions to suppress the air defenses and minimize these losses, but is likely to be perceived as a Libya type intervention by the western powers, which the Arab states wish to avoid.

A ground invasion by Turkey poses a major problem because all the nations in the area remember that Turkey ruled them as part of the Ottoman Empire less than a century ago, and have no desire to see it revived, and which some vocal Turkish politicians advocate. A general invasion of Syria by Turkey has the potential to unite the various armed groups against the Turks, and possibly even ally them to Assad. A more limited campaign to establish a no-fly zone in northern Syria would not have that problem.

There is also the covert war between the elected government and the generals that has left Turkey with a politically chosen military leadership and reduced moral. If Turkey intervenes without western support and suffers heavy losses, the backlash could result in a military coup and suppression of the religious parties, again.

Another major factor to consider about Turkish decision making is that Prime Minister Erdogan over the last few years put a lot of diplomatic effort into strengthening ties with the Muslim world, including demonizing the western powers (including NATO allies) and Israel, and making major friendship deals with Syria and Iran, in an effort curry favor with the religious parties at home. Now he finds himself in a situation where Syria and Iran are the bad guys, but effective intervention is only possible with the assistance of the rest of NATO, which will not sit well with his religious support in upcoming elections. Like any politician in this position he will be tempted to do nothing in hopes of being saved by changing circumstances.