Falklands tensions

[RobWilliams]

It`s not only The Sun, it is everywhere in the press
Argentine group insists with Falklands
but I could not find it in the Argentinian press. :unknown

Mercopress is a great outlet for news on whats going on down there, found this pretty good article

Timerman Falklands

According to the article, even Buenos Aires admits that it didn't create as big a situation as they thought it would which (to me) is suprising. The article also goes along with saying that the US has disregarded claims that the UK is militarizing the situation.

Then there's the update on the US Congressmans visit to the islands

Visiting US congressman offers support for Falklands

Really puts it into scale doesn't it, Argentina is backed by Sean Penn and the Falklanders are backed by a US Congressman

 

[exPrivate]

Argentina is backed by Sean Penn and the Falklanders are backed by a US Congressman

Just guess who is more popular! :rotfl

 

[CJohn]

I think we should all keep a certain prospective in this situation, the kelpers are 10 generations of people living in their chosen land, they have a right to determine their own destiny, it is up to them to forge a future for there children and their way of life, they have told us all what they believe to be true, and they have a right to do so. !

 

[StobieWan]

Just guess who is more popular! :rotfl

One of them sits on two key committees and one of them sits on his ass. I'll take a congressman over Sean Penn any day.

 

[RobWilliams]

One of them sits on two key committees and one of them sits on his ass. I'll take a congressman over Sean Penn any day.

Too right.

New article from Mercopress

Argentine all-party lawmakers group ratify Malvinas sovereignty claim in Ushuaia — MercoPress

To me the most interesting comments is this

The ten articles statement rejects the “persistent colonialist and militaristic attitude of the UK in the South Atlantic “ and reaffirms Argentina commitment to dialogue and peace in the region as expressed in repeated UN assembly mandates.

Seems like although they supposedly want the UN involved in this they seem to disregard anything that goes against the 'cause' coming from the UN

Read an interesting article in the March 2012 edition of Warships IFR

It is no secret, however, that the Trident D5 missiles carried by both the Royal Navy's Vanguard Class boats and the US Navy's Ohio Class have a range of over 7000 miles, and the distance from HM Naval Base Clyde from Buenos Aires is 6,999 miles. HMS Vanguard could technically hit the Argentinian capital without even setting sail from her home base

Kinda defeats the point of sending a Vanguard class sub down to the South Atlantic in my eyes

 

[exPrivate]

I really wonder if there could be a cross party declaration on the subject coming from Westminster. I would like to see one however...
Probably better move a Vanguard to Portsmouth, just in case...

 

[RobWilliams]

I really wonder if there could be a cross party declaration on the subject coming from Westminster. I would like to see one however...
Probably better move a Vanguard to Portsmouth, just in case...

While i suspect there would be no big signing like Argentina did, Cameron (and Clegg) both support the UKs rightful sovereignity (obviously) but so does the Labour Shadow Foreign Minister John Spellar

All UK parties will protect the Falkland Islanders' right to determine their own future - Spellar | The Labour Party

Even though its not so public, it shows cross-party support on the issue from the 'big' parties.

Well, there could be one there already . . .. . .

 

[StobieWan]

None of the Vanguards would have been deployed outside their bastion patrol zones - the UK government will never comment on where the nuclear deterrent is or isn't but in the main, they've got their box to run around in and that's that.

Which is why I'm baffled about Argentina getting uppity..

 

[exPrivate]

We have sth more about ships flying not the Falkland flag, but anything that resembles it.
Port of Ushuaia refuses entry of cruise vessels that visited the Falkland Islands — MercoPress
I remember a song of Dragonheart: Everlasting story
Stiil I should admitt the Argentine authorities are inventive!

 

[pdunderhill]

None of the Vanguards would have been deployed outside their bastion patrol zones - the UK government will never comment on where the nuclear deterrent is or isn't but in the main, they've got their box to run around in and that's that.

Which is why I'm baffled about Argentina getting uppity..

Sadly I'm not. The Falklands are sadly a well worn rabble-rouser in Buenos Aires, and before we get to nationalistic remember the 'Gotcha' news headlines in the Sun following Belgrano being torpedoed.

Anyway, greetings all, name is Peter and thought I'd contribute my pennysworth.

HMS Daring and possibly/probably HMS Astute together are indeed part of a routine patrol, certainly for the last thirty years. As first of type Daring certainly needs a decent few months of operational shakedown and where better than the traditionally quiet South Atlantic!

I have a few concerns though, firstly the type 45's anti-ship abilities seem to be reliant on the 4.5'' gun and rough weather could cause the choppers serious problems down south. That part of the Atlantic is vast and I worry about even a nuclear powered sub rushing up and down the coast like a dog chasing a frisbee.
Second point, and more worrying would be an Airbourne attack on Mount Pleasant. Imagine a Civilian aircraft declaring a Mayday and seeking to land on the Falklands. Doors open and out pour 2-300 hundred heavilly armed Elite Argentinian troops. Certainly enough to seize the Airport and combined witha few Commando raids on the remote Rapier, (we still using them?), sites to take out anti-air and Jorge's your Uncle.

I'm not going to trade in crude nationalism or racism because I understand that Governments and media can divide humanity with frightening ease and I certainly don't believe that this 'potential' war will be the first between democracies ever but I would ask both sides esp BA to tone it down. If their Foreign Ministry new anything about the British charecter it's that we support the Underdog, the Islanders, please note not 'Kelpers' it's derrogatory.

Other comments about NATO and US support, well if we ask we'll find out, as I suspect we won't need them the question is moot.

Argentina's position is different. The South American bloc may give vocal support to them but I would be astonished if they so much lit us up with a radar let alone fired a single shot, not their war.

Sean Penn and Timmerman... I think they must have crawled out of a different swamp a few hundred million years ago!

Thanks for your patience on my first post, hell if it has gone tits up I can always go down South and bore the Argies to death

Peter Underhill

 

[RobWilliams]

None of the Vanguards would have been deployed outside their bastion patrol zones - the UK government will never comment on where the nuclear deterrent is or isn't but in the main, they've got their box to run around in and that's that.

Which is why I'm baffled about Argentina getting uppity..

Timermans just trying to make the UK look like the ultimate bad guy, deploying nukes against a helpless country. Thing is the whole globe saw right through it long before he ever finished his powerpoint.

Interesting article about the Olympics

CFK confirms Argentina will attend London Olympics

“That is why remembering the Malvinas here and ratifying this regional and global cause once more is not only just about territory or history. It is also about the defence of our natural resources,” she explained.

I wonder what natural resources she could mean, or does she only really care about fishing rights? I wouldn't say so.

Also, its interesting the whole "Malvinas" slogan for athletes to wear has gone suspiciously quiet.

 

[RobWilliams]

We have sth more about ships flying not the Falkland flag, but anything that resembles it.
Port of Ushuaia refuses entry of cruise vessels that visited the Falkland Islands — MercoPress
I remember a song of Dragonheart: Everlasting story
Stiil I should admitt the Argentine authorities are inventive!

It appears the president of the Ushuaia Tourism Chamber was pretty angry about the decision

“It’s an issue that must be addressed with utmost care”, said Lietti. “We all want the Malvinas Islands back under Argentine flag but the cruise industry has nothing to do with the Malvinas dispute” and recalled that the cruise industry is one of the main sources of income for the local economy.

If the measure was intended to harm the English and the Falklands, the damage has been inflicted on all the people that were scheduled to work with the two cruises in Ushuaia, said Lieti.

I wonder what the locals have to say about the nationalistic grousing directly affecting their livelihoods.

Thing to note, you're seeing plenty more disagreement with what CFK is doing/how she is going about it from inside Argentina than you are from the UK, which is a positive sign. I thought for sure i'd see at least a few statements demanding a softer stance from inside the UK.

 

[exPrivate]

Sorry Rob, but I really don`t see any need for softer stance on the part of the UK. Everything was put clearly on the table:
1. Selfdetermination
2. You broke the treaties, so you are unreliable for more negotiations
3. You are the bullyboy harassing the weak
4. It is good they even don`t mention who lost the last war and absolutely no threat with force.
IMO British diplomacy is doing it`s best at the moment with all the other urgent issues banging at the door.

 

[RobWilliams]

Sorry Rob, but I really don`t see any need for softer stance on the part of the UK. Everything was put clearly on the table:
1. Selfdetermination
2. You broke the treaties, so you are unreliable for more negotiations
3. You are the bullyboy harassing the weak
4. It is good they even don`t mention who lost the last war and absolutely no threat with force.
IMO British diplomacy is doing it`s best at the moment with all the other urgent issues banging at the door.

Thing to note, you're seeing plenty more disagreement with what CFK is doing/how she is going about it from inside Argentina than you are from the UK, which is a positive sign

My statement was explaining that I think that dissent in the Argentinian ranks was a good thing (in my eyes) rather than being a unified Argentina (as the UK is on the issue pretty much)

I thought for sure i'd see at least a few statements demanding a softer stance from inside the UK.

My statement was explaining that for the UK, i'm suprised there haven't been any comments by 'do-gooders' which is the usual response when the government takes what some would call a 'harder than usual' stance.

Nowhere did i say i thought the UKs stance was wrong or implicate that Argentina are in the right nor did i suggest the UK needs to have a softer stance. I apologise if that was ambiguous in some way

 

[exPrivate]

OK! It`s possibly my clumsy English. We obviously think the same.

 

[RobWilliams]

OK! It`s possibly my clumsy English. We obviously think the same.

Good good

One interesting point which i'm not sure has been raised yet

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ould-fight-with-Argentina-over-Falklands.html

Puts another aspect on things as AFAIK the Venuzuelan Air Force/Army is far more modern than Argentinas.

Su-30s and F-16s I think are the bulk, as much as it could be an 'idle threat', i'd be interested to see what the MoD thought about it.

Although a quote from the article suggests Chavez means he would get involved in a British invasion of Argentina (not in the case of an invasion as the headline - to me - indicated), which is so illogical it makes my mind fizz

 

[exPrivate]

Birds of a feather flock together!
But I think it will do good to have a permanent West Indian Squadron of the RN.

 

[CheeZe]

You realize that the establishment of such a posting would simply play INTO the hands of those who accuse the UK of militaristic or imperialistic actions. The world is not any one country's playground. The permanent garrison at the Falklands is enough of a deterrent. That's all the UK needs.

Everyone who reflects on history will realize that the UK has defended its sovereignty in the islands and that Argentina, not the UK was the aggressor. It is on Argentina to rant, fume and rave all it can to convince others that its claim supercedes that of the present islanders.

Here's my understanding. Military action didn't work in the long term and they came out smelling like the bad guy. Diplomatic negotiations failed because the sticking point was on the islanders' self-determination, which is staunchly pro-British after 1982. So now, the Argentinians are trying to pressure the UK with third-party supporters as well as economic pressure on the islands. It is going to be a battle of soft power against soft power. And that sort of capability is nearly impossible to accurately quantify.

 

[StobieWan]

Second point, and more worrying would be an Airbourne attack on Mount Pleasant. Imagine a Civilian aircraft declaring a Mayday and seeking to land on the Falklands. Doors open and out pour 2-300 hundred heavilly armed Elite Argentinian troops. Certainly enough to seize the Airport and combined witha few Commando raids on the remote Rapier, (we still using them?), sites to take out anti-air and Jorge's your Uncle.

Peter Underhill

These Tom Clancy scenarios have been gamed out many times on various forums and the problem with that scenario is that the Islands are far from any normal civilian flightpath. The bulk of the air traffic into MPA is scheduled military or support flights. An unfamiliar call sign would most likely be intercepted a fair way out and redirected to the mainland. Just look at the map - there's no reason for a civilian airliner to be out there.

Even if granted clearance, there'd be a scramble to meet and greet the arrival, most likely with vehicles carrying machine guns. Getting two to three hundred troops off an airliner under fire has "disaster" written all over it. That leaves using a military transport with a ramp, and that'd have the alarm bells ringing like mad if it were intercepted in mid air (which is of course, exactly what those Typhoons are there for)

How many troops can you get onto a Hercules for instance? 80?

Can't see it happening - and the local forces are numbering 1200, arrayed in bunkers, with a lot of firepower, supporting vehicles and so forth.

Taking out the Rapier batteries using SF inserted from submarine might be marginally possible but you'd have to get troops off a sub, onto the shore and across a fair old hike.

 

[RobWilliams]

HMS Daring and possibly/probably HMS Astute together are indeed part of a routine patrol, certainly for the last thirty years. As first of type Daring certainly needs a decent few months of operational shakedown and where better than the traditionally quiet South Atlantic!

I have a few concerns though, firstly the type 45's anti-ship abilities seem to be reliant on the 4.5'' gun and rough weather could cause the choppers serious problems down south. That part of the Atlantic is vast and I worry about even a nuclear powered sub rushing up and down the coast like a dog chasing a frisbee.
Second point, and more worrying would be an Airbourne attack on Mount Pleasant. Imagine a Civilian aircraft declaring a Mayday and seeking to land on the Falklands. Doors open and out pour 2-300 hundred heavilly armed Elite Argentinian troops. Certainly enough to seize the Airport and combined witha few Commando raids on the remote Rapier, (we still using them?), sites to take out anti-air and Jorge's your Uncle.

The supposed deployment of a nuclear powered sub to the Falklands is apparently a Trafalgar class SSN (some places have directly named HMS Tireless but i expect its just a shot in the dark), HMS Astute hasn't been roumered to be deployed.

About the anti-ship issue, when HMS Conqueror sunk the Belgrano, every single Argentinian naval vessel headed back to the mainland. Then one has to remember that the Belgrano represented (to the British task force) one claw of a "pincer", the other pincer being headed by the aircraft carrier Veinticino de Mayo. (True, IIRC HMS Spartan was tasked with finding the carrier but i'm under the impression that Spartan never managed to track her down & Woodward would have pushed very hard to sink the carrier if she was spotted)

That one hit by Conqueror effectively ended Argentinian naval activities around the islands so anti-ship isn't extremely neccesary (AFAIK the 4.5in gun on RN ships is mainly for NGFS - not to combat enemy ships), there could well be only one in the area but the Argies don't know that.

About the plane landing thats interesting, but improbable. That aircraft would have to have a very interesting flight plan if a mayday created no choice but to land at the Falkland islands with good intentions, especially if the aircraft is of Argentine origin. Such an aircraft (i'd assume) would be treated with an appropriate level of suspicion (a massive amount if Rapier faults - yup we still use 'em - are due to commando raids) so its unlikely.