Which is more likely, a customer with a ton of cash, or Congress allowing exports? I'd think there are countries with the money. The Saudis for example. Or even the Israelis.
Official Chengdu J-20 Discussion Thread
the concerned
Active Member
i also think that if you take a look at the USA its took them the best part of 10yrs just to learn how to fight in the F-22 like an F-22 not an F-15. So i reckon buy the time china fully develops the J-20 and then produces enough to deploy and then learn to operate it fully you are porbably talking the mid 2020's which by then the raptors would have been upgraded further and i bet a attrition batch produced to keep numbers at the current strength.also buy then the USA is going to be looking at whats next
Air Force Brat
Member
When a weapon is so far advanced from its predecessors it will take a little time to develop tactics and integrate that new weapon with exsiting weapons. Those logistical problems that always crop up require sound program management. To say that it took them ten years to learn to operate it is patently untrue, and an attempt to appear more informed than we really are, but then this is defense "talk". So lets get back to reality and try to stick to known issues and their solutions.
Air Force Brat
Member
I am however inclined to believe that someone somewhere expects at least a partial ressurection of F-22 production as it remains the only true 5th gen fighter. Otherwise they wouldn't have been so public and specific about saving the tooling and cataloging the production procedures, I certainly hope we have regime change in November as that is likely the only way we will ever crawl out of this hole we're in.
The Israelis only have the money for F-22s if the USA gives it to them. At the last count, the Israeli defence budget was about 2% of the US level. It's behind Turkey, a little ahead of the Netherlands. And the GDP from which that budget is derived is a lot smaller than either.
You have a point there. Israel might not be the kind of customer we're looking for. But a customer with the funds to re-open production is more likely then Congress allowing exports in the first place.
They signed two contracts for over 200 engines total in 2011. Only recently have they worked out the problems with WS-10 production. Iirc even now they import parts for the WS-10 from Russia (I read namely about titanium blades). Those are not good signs. And this isn't state of the art tech. The AL-31s have been in production for over 30 years. They're designs from the late 70s. Engine building has come a very long way since then.
Air Force Brat
Member
I would concur, I think we're seeing a sea change here, and while Feanor is right about friends borrowing tech, the availability of money is largely the driving force here, I would believe that we've always seen the desire, but the recent insertion of lots of US cash from Walmart and friends has enabled a lot of defense spending and investment in some rather sophisticated hardware. If we go back to the fifties and look at the airsuperiority game, you will find a great deal of similar capability, even though there was a slight technology gap, everyones toys were very similar in capability and appearance, as always the edge goes to the team that is preparing to take the field. That same situation is presently descriptive of developments in the Airsuperiority arena, and while reasonable honesty demands a more accurate assessment of capabilities, there is one team who is investing their assets with a vengence and they are seeing results [Provide a source for the statement highlighted in 'bold' and including an explanation on how to quantify the 'results' in next 2 days, many thanks in advance.].
Edit: Well at least we're becoming more informed Feanor, and that is an excellent point, that we never hear in these press releases. This is certainly not a new situation or one that I was totally unaware of, but no matter where they get this stuff, some of it is quite capable, I do agree that they have a lot to learn, but the old varyag looks good, but I'm sure they are in for a few surprises when they attempt to go operational with her. It all is a real concern and to a large extent these types of sea changes are unsettleing and do destablize the strategic balance.
[Mod Edit: In future, use the edit function to modify your own recent post. Relying to your own post a few minutes a part will be seen as post-whoring (to increase post count).
Kindly read the forum rules and review your own posts for spelling and other factual errors before posing further. The Mod Team has recently banned a member for posting 'false' information (see post #406 of another thread) and when you post information and it is stated as a 'fact' be prepared to be challanged for a source. ]
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Those seemed to be intended for replacements/spares for j-10As, vanilla su-27/30/j-11s. with over 100 j-11Bs flying with ws-10 engines, as well as the newer j-11BS, China certinaly has shown confidence in the ws-10. There were certainly many problems in development, but at the present it seems much of these issues have been solved. The J-15 prototypes also use the ws-10 engine. What is your source on WS-10 titanium blades being sourced from russia?
Haavarla
Active Member
Regarding the military jet engines, Russia have long ago mastered the metalurgy and methods to apply/fuse 'crystal composite' into the fanblades on their engine, thereby making them more resilliant to heat.
And i'm sure their metods have improved the latest years, see 117S and 117 engines..
Hense their engines can operate or tolerate higher temp.
It remains to be seen how the WS-10B/H or WS-15 engines are coming along..
The should atleast have higher parameters vs the WS-10 and WS-10A engines.
Air Force Brat
Member
That same situation is presently descriptive of developments in the Airsuperiority arena, and while reasonable honesty demands a more accurate assessment of capabilities, there is one team who is investing their assets with a vengence and they are seeing results [Provide a source for the statement highlighted in 'bold' and including an explanation on how to quantify the 'results' in next 2 days, many thanks in advance.].
The Wall Street Journal post 2/14/2012 Chinese Military Spending To Double By 2015 by Jeremy Page
The Globe and Mail post 1/06/2012 Pentagons New Defense Strategy Eyes China by Affan Chowdhry " The pentagon warned last August that China's military is on course to build a modern military by 2020, and in a year when the Chinese military tested a stealth aircraft and conducted sea trials of a new carrier, the Pentagons concern is unmistakeable" This same article quotes the president as saying that He will not cut defense spending on the East Asia front when defense spending is being cut across the board by 500 billion dollars.
Countless articles reflecting the massive defense buildup in China are the source of my comment, that they are spending very aggressively, in a very austere time for most of us around the globe, first flight of the J-20 to coincide with the Sec Defs vistit to China, and the sea trials of the former Varyag, these two developements alone are massive in their engineering and financial committment and the Pentagon is very concerned. On this specific topic, the J-20 has been flown a lot, right up until the Chinese New Year brought things to a temporary hiatus, I believe 68 flights to date, that is a lot of flying in the year following a first flight of a completely new aircraft IMOH?
The Wall Street Journal post 2/14/2012 Chinese Military Spending To Double By 2015 by Jeremy Page
The Globe and Mail post 1/06/2012 Pentagons New Defense Strategy Eyes China by Affan Chowdhry " The pentagon warned last August that China's military is on course to build a modern military by 2020, and in a year when the Chinese military tested a stealth aircraft and conducted sea trials of a new carrier, the Pentagons concern is unmistakeable" This same article quotes the president as saying that He will not cut defense spending on the East Asia front when defense spending is being cut across the board by 500 billion dollars.
Countless articles reflecting the massive defense buildup in China are the source of my comment, that they are spending very aggressively, in a very austere time for most of us around the globe, first flight of the J-20 to coincide with the Sec Defs vistit to China, and the sea trials of the former Varyag, these two developements alone are massive in their engineering and financial committment and the Pentagon is very concerned. On this specific topic, the J-20 has been flown a lot, right up until the Chinese New Year brought things to a temporary hiatus, I believe 68 flights to date, that is a lot of flying in the year following a first flight of a completely new aircraft IMOH?
I will try to find the original source. It will most likely be in Russian. This is what I've found after a quick look just now. Granted not the best or most definite of sources. I'll keep looking and get back to you.
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If Taiwan is right, a lot of the APA/Sweetman J-20 cheering is for naught. Article from jan 2011, it seems that it is a test bed for their 5th gen product
- CNA ENGLISH NEWS
Pictures purporting to be of the prototype J-20 stealth fighter were posted on several websites after the U.S.-based Aviation Week magazine reported that the aircraft had been undergoing taxiing tests in late December at an airfield in Chengdu, western China.
The debut of the J-20 was announced in November 2009, but Shen I-ming, deputy defense minister in charge of intelligence, anwering questions from Legislator Lin Yu-fang of the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) before the Legislative Yuan's Foreign and Defense Committee, said the authenticity of the photos was questionable.
Shen confirmed that China has been developing its fifth-generation fighters but said the aircraft shown in the photos do not appear to be that system.
ugh since you guys are talking about flankers, i gota ask here.
i been reading on other forums of people saying SU-35 was offered to China but they refused, then others say just the Iribis-E radar was offered and China rejected. I cant find any of that in google.
does anyone know the real story
i been reading on other forums of people saying SU-35 was offered to China but they refused, then others say just the Iribis-E radar was offered and China rejected. I cant find any of that in google.
does anyone know the real story
I read the opposite, that China attempted to acquire the Irbis radar and 117S engines, but they were denied.
EDIT: Here's a source claiming that China tried to acquire the fighter as a whole.
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/Russias-SU-35-Mystery-Fighter-No-More-04969/
Haavarla
Active Member
Well those days are long gone.
And i think Libya would have gone for a customized Su-30MK2(MKL) variant, if any..
The J-15 probably grew out from an Ukraine Su-33 prototype. But with the WS-10H engines installed.
And i think Libya would have gone for a customized Su-30MK2(MKL) variant, if any..
Believe it or not. Russia do protect their most sensitive stuff. So its not an all out ToT for every Russian hardware.
The J-15 probably grew out from an Ukraine Su-33 prototype. But with the WS-10H engines installed.
Supposedly a contract had already been signed for 12-15 aircraft. It would make sense, given that Russia has been actively pushing to try and get at least some export orders for the Su-35. The Su-35 was developed to help offset costs for developing the PAK-FA, through export sales. There were hopes for it in Venezuela, Brazil, etc. However nothing has materialized. It's possible that they could get sold to China, but it would have to be a fairly large contract for it to be justified, given the technology leak risk involved.