Some fascinating statements from head of the VVS, Zelin. Apparently there are currently only 124 Su-24s left in the VVS. Given that this number would have to include recon and EW variants, I'm extremely surprised by this low number. On the other hand they are planning to replace all 124 on a 1 for 1 basis, which leads me to wonder whether this means they will develop a recon and EW variant of the Su-34 to replace appropriate Su-24Ms. This also doesn't make sense since the recon role everywhere in the world is being filled with UAVs and, in theory, Russia is planning to go down that same path. So does he then plan to replace the recon birds with regular Su-34s? Or does the number 124 only include basic Su-24M aircraft?
Finally this doesn't tell us anything about Su-24Ms in the AVMF. A number of them are in the Black Sea Fleet, and in the Pacific fleet. The BSF fleet considered using the Su-30SM as a replacement, will the PacF do the same?
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EDIT: It appears that Russia will provide the funding to complete development of the An-70 transport, and intends to purchase it in significant quantities as part of a plan to expand and improve on the strategic mobility of the Russian military.
http://arms-tass.su/?page=article&aid=103667&cid=24
No surprises there, given that Ukraine doesn't have the money, and Russia has repeatedly stated they wanted the plane. However I'm interested to see how and where they localize production in Russia. After all there aren't that many aviation plants in Russia, and most of them aren't in great shape. Aviastar-SP will be busy with the Il-476, Aviakor can barely keep up with An-140-100 orders, NAPO is barely managing to put out necessary numbers of Su-34s, along with parts for Boeing, and SSJ. So who would this go to then? VASO? They're in a similar situation with the An-148, where they can't produce sufficient numbers to fulfill existing orders. KnAAPO will be at capacity if not over with the Su-35S, PAK-FA, SSJ, and continuing Su-30MK exports. That really only leaves IAPO which has slowed Su-30MK production, and picked up the Yak-130. However they have no experience of producing large transport aircraft, and likely don't have the facilities. There is also the upcoming Su-30SM purchases from the VVS and possibly AVMF. If those materialize, along with more Su-30MK exports, that would keep them occupied though 2020.
On the other hand Kievs Aviant is in bad shape too, and there is little desire in Russia to fund Ukranian industry with Russian defense orders. It will be interesting to see who picks up serial production if a major VVS order ever comes through.
