Pakistan Nuclear & Missile Development and News

[mysterious]

Cold Start is not an invasion plan.

Cold Start is an operational plan devised from the experience of Operation Parakram (2001-2002) it is a limited offense plan devised to ensure speed in deployment of forces. It must also be added that Cold Start as such does not have a lot of backing in India. The Army ofcourse supports it, however the entire politic doesnot seem to.

And where exactly does this 'offensive' Cold Start plan play out? Let me help.. in Pakistani territory since its a Pakistan specific doctrine. And any 'offensive action' carried out by a recognized state-army in the territory of another sovereign state is called an 'invasion' in all legal and moral language.

However in order to make you understand the view of the Indian Armed forces reg the Nasr, pl refer to the IAF chiefs response to queries directly in respect to usage of Nasr. His language indicates that it would be expected that there would be heavy nuclear retaliation if a nuclear weapon is used and it would be as per stated policy.

Response to strike from Pak will be very heavy: IAF chief - Times Of India

Again, the statement you put forth by IAF chief is, what is called, 'sabre-rattling' in foreign policy language. Not to mention that he says, any attack on the 'country' would be cause for retaliation. But the Nasr missile is not designed to attack 'India' per se but its invading forces who would be in Pakistani territory for it to be used. I'm sure the Indian planners would be scratching their heads in that kind of scenario since that action by Pakistan, in NO legal terminology, represents an 'attack on India'.

 

[dragonfire]

And where exactly does this 'offensive' Cold Start plan play out? Let me help.. in Pakistani territory since its a Pakistan specific doctrine. And any 'offensive action' carried out by a recognized state-army in the territory of another sovereign state is called an 'invasion' in all legal and moral language.

Sure.. I shouldnt have left it without specifics, my intention was to convey that 'Cold Start' is not a Invasion of Pakistan plan. The motive of the doctrine while does involve moving into Pakistani territory (conceding and agreeing to the fact that it is Pakistani soil in question) it is not about attacking, defeating and ruling Pakistan per se, it is about punitive action against Pakistan and it is also an Operational Plan which addresses the challenge of speed in deployment and operations of corps sized forces (20K troops + support elements). The genesis of this plan as mentioned in my previous post is due to the learnings which came about due to lack of speed in operational deployment during Op Parakram, which involved close to or more than .8 million soldiers on either side of the border

Again, the statement you put forth by IAF chief is, what is called, 'sabre-rattling' in foreign policy language. Not to mention that he says, any attack on the 'country' would be cause for retaliation. But the Nasr missile is not designed to attack 'India' per se but its invading forces who would be in Pakistani territory for it to be used. I'm sure the Indian planners would be scratching their heads in that kind of scenario since that action by Pakistan, in NO legal terminology, represents an 'attack on India'.

Hmmm..

Sir, i think it is coming down to individual understanding of predictable scenarios, allow me to share my sources of research on the subject which i believe are neutral and analyses both Cold Start and the Nasr missile.

About Cold Start doctrine - A classified detailed communique between the US Embassy in India and the State Dept in US. Leaked by wikileaks

WikiLeaks: US on Indian Army's Cold Start Doctrine

About the Nasr Missile and its various implications prepared by the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA)

Making Sense of ‘Nasr’ | Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

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I continue to believe that if there is casualty of more than lets say 1000 Indians from a Pakistani nuclear attack (direct or otherwise) there would be counter strike no matter whom the soil belongs to Pakistan, India, Afganistan etc and no matter what the legal consequences are.

 

[mysterious]

Sure.. I shouldnt have left it without specifics, my intention was to convey that 'Cold Start' is not a Invasion of Pakistan plan. The motive of the doctrine while does involve moving into Pakistani territory (conceding and agreeing to the fact that it is Pakistani soil in question) it is not about attacking, defeating and ruling Pakistan per se, it is about punitive action against Pakistan and it is also an Operational Plan which addresses the challenge of speed in deployment and operations of corps sized forces (20K troops + support elements). The genesis of this plan as mentioned in my previous post is due to the learnings which came about due to lack of speed in operational deployment during Op Parakram, which involved close to or more than .8 million soldiers on either side of the border

That leads me to believe that Cold Start is practically an internal 'readiness' doctrine for Indian forces since its is useless as a 'punitive action-plan' against Pakistan if it only makes Indian planners actually believe they can deploy a numerically non-significant rapid-force inside Pakistan and have them return home alive. This fact then points to the force size being quite significant for the doctrine to have any effect in terms of actionable objectives aside from rate-of-organization & deployment parameters.

Hmmm..

Sir, i think it is coming down to individual understanding of predictable scenarios, allow me to share my sources of research on the subject which i believe are neutral and analyses both Cold Start and the Nasr missile.

About Cold Start doctrine - A classified detailed communique between the US Embassy in India and the State Dept in US. Leaked by wikileaks

WikiLeaks: US on Indian Army's Cold Start Doctrine

About the Nasr Missile and its various implications prepared by the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA)

Making Sense of ‘Nasr’ | Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

I continue to believe that if there is casualty of more than lets say 1000 Indians from a Pakistani nuclear attack (direct or otherwise) there would be counter strike no matter whom the soil belongs to Pakistan, India, Afganistan etc and no matter what the legal consequences are.

On both counts, the Cold Start doctrine appears to be a non-starter.

First, the Wikileaks cable abundantly shows the belief by US officials that it is a plan that 'may never be used' for the simple fact that the Indians do not know how Pakistan will react & that calculation is impossible to pin down. Hence the non-use of the doctrine following Mumbai attacks.

Second and more importantly, it should be kept in mind that Cold Start is aimed at 'mobilization within 72hrs' - that is useless in itself since this refers to the mobilization of not the entire juggernaut of Indian armed forces, but the ones who are meant to conduct the punitive action against Pakistan. The problem with this is, it is self-defeating, since 72hrs is enough time for the most of Pakistan armed forces to mobilize in their entirety, in which case, Cold Start against becomes ineffective.

All this positions Cold Start as a staple for domestic political consumption only.

The second article is mere hypothesis-mongering by some unknown analyst who cites NO sources for any of his claims and puts forth a ludicrous observation that Cold Start is actually held in reserve to respond to a Pakistani response to an Indian response that doesn't involve Cold Start which would be in response to a terror attack. Yes, its a mouthful and it makes absolutely no sense at all and goes against pretty much every defence analyst out there (even Indian)- wish the author of the mentioned article knew that.

As it stands, Nasr missile is designed to be a 'deterrent' as is what all of Pakistani defence policy rotates around. To stop India from invading the country as has been the case in the past wars. So far it has paid off, no Indian invasion since 1998 despite mobilization and what not. Nasr only adds another layer to prevent Cold Start from ever being put to use in the first place by prophesizing its failure.

 

[dragonfire]

Cold Start is actually held in reserve to respond to a Pakistani response to an Indian response that doesn't involve Cold Start which would be in response to a terror attack.

:rolling

Reg your Opinion of the Cold Start doctrine, i have already shared that not most people look at it as a solution and definitely not the only solution.

Will get back to you reg the rest if required

Reg our opinions about the indian response to a Nuclear attack i stick to my views as shared earlier.

 

[dragonfire]

Again, the statement you put forth by IAF chief is, what is called, 'sabre-rattling' in foreign policy language. Not to mention that he says, any attack on the 'country' would be cause for retaliation. But the Nasr missile is not designed to attack 'India' per se but its invading forces who would be in Pakistani territory for it to be used. I'm sure the Indian planners would be scratching their heads in that kind of scenario since that action by Pakistan, in NO legal terminology, represents an 'attack on India'.

I continue to believe that if there is casualty of more than lets say 1000 Indians from a Pakistani nuclear attack (direct or otherwise) there would be counter strike no matter whom the soil belongs to Pakistan, India, Afganistan etc and no matter what the legal consequences are.

On October 8th the Following Newspaper Article was published in Times of India Daily about exercise 'Sudharshan Shakthi'

Excerpts
NEW DELHI: Unruffled by Pakistan's brandishing of tactical nuclear missiles for battlefield use, India is launching another massive combat exercise to further sharpen its "pro-active'' strategy of multiple blitzkrieg thrusts across the border.

Around 50,000 soldiers with T-90S, T-72 M1 main-battle tanks and infantry combat vehicles, backed by Sukhoi-30MKI fighters, aircraft, helicopters, drones, satellites and other force-multipliers, will take part in the `Sudarshan Shakti' exercise in the Thar desert in November-December.

This comes after the major 'Vijayee Bhava' wargames in April-May, during which Pakistan projected its new 60-km Nasr (Hatf-IX) missile as a deadly game-changer against what is loosely called India's 'Cold Start' doctrine.

Indian armed forces, however, are not rattled by all the tall talk. "All our major combat manoeuvres are conducted under the NBC (nuclear, biological, chemical) overhang. We practice for all eventualities,'' said a senior officer.

Moreover, the military brass points to India's nuclear doctrine which holds that "nuclear retaliation to a first strike will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage''.

That's not all. India even retains the option to retaliate with nuclear weapons if its forces "anywhere'' are attacked with biological or chemical weapons.

Army to hold massive combat drill in Thar - Times Of India

Pl note the emphasis on the word "anywhere"

So the basic premise is that If there is a nuclear first strike on India (for definition used here, India includes its troops anywhere) there would be massive nuclear retaliation on the attacker. The very fact that IA and IAF are launching a massive exercise of 50K+ troops to practice its combat doctrines are a visible response to questions posed by the Nasr missile.

 

[SABRE]

On October 8th the Following Newspaper Article was published in Times of India Daily about exercise 'Sudharshan Shakthi'

Pl note the emphasis on the word "anywhere"

So the basic premise is that If there is a nuclear first strike on India (for definition used here, India includes its troops anywhere) there would be massive nuclear retaliation on the attacker. The very fact that IA and IAF are launching a massive exercise of 50K+ troops to practice its combat doctrines are a visible response to questions posed by the Nasr missile.

Rather than looking into Indian military exercises you should visit the Indian Nuclear Doctrine. It clearly states Indian response to WMD attack on mainland India or its troops anywhere will result in massive retaliation. On the other hand, India will not use nuclear weapons first. This fact has not been over looked by Pakistan's nuclear planners, especially while they were coming up with Nasr.

Nasr's objectives are clear = deter battle, in particular any proactive campaign by Indian armed forces. In case Nasr's deterrence fails (that is it is used) and India carries out massive retaliation Pakistan will still have all its strategic nuclear arsenal to response with. In other words it would be Mutual Assured Destruction.

Nasr also provides Pakistan with other advantages. Its smaller size enables it to be stored in hard to find and destroy locations, thus providing a degree of 2nd strike capability. Number of Nasr missiles can be fired before a strategic nuclear strike to create cluster to confuse or preempt India's BMD system.

It is also a technology demonstrator of how far Pakistan has come with warhead miniaturization. Given Nasr's warhead size Pakistan can develop MIRVs, and its ability to be fired from a tube hints that Pakistan could perhaps develop and deploy ship based version as well as develop submarine based missile.

 

[dragonfire]

Rather than looking into Indian military exercises you should visit the Indian Nuclear Doctrine. It clearly states Indian response to WMD attack on mainland India or its troops anywhere will result in massive retaliation. On the other hand, India will not use nuclear weapons first. This fact has not been over looked by Pakistan's nuclear planners, especially while they were coming up with Nasr.

Nasr's objectives are clear = deter battle, in particular any proactive campaign by Indian armed forces. In case Nasr's deterrence fails (that is it is used) and India carries out massive retaliation Pakistan will still have all its strategic nuclear arsenal to response with. In other words it would be Mutual Assured Destruction.

Nasr also provides Pakistan with other advantages. Its smaller size enables it to be stored in hard to find and destroy locations, thus providing a degree of 2nd strike capability. Number of Nasr missiles can be fired before a strategic nuclear strike to create cluster to confuse or preempt India's BMD system.

It is also a technology demonstrator of how far Pakistan has come with warhead miniaturization. Given Nasr's warhead size Pakistan can develop MIRVs, and its ability to be fired from a tube hints that Pakistan could perhaps develop and deploy ship based version as well as develop submarine based missile.

Agreed with most of the post above except for the 2nd Strike utility of the Nasr Missile, considering its short range of 60 kms and small yield of sub-kiloton it wouldnot be an ideal 2nd strike weapon. Most of my posts above were to discuss the escalation of a conventional conflict to a nuclear one if a nuclear weapon like Nasr was used. It is my hope that the region remains stable and a situation where a nuclear weapons actual usage is never contemplated.

 

[SABRE]

Agreed with most of the post above except for the 2nd Strike utility of the Nasr Missile, considering its short range of 60 kms and small yield of sub-kiloton it wouldnot be an ideal 2nd strike weapon. Most of my posts above were to discuss the escalation of a conventional conflict to a nuclear one if a nuclear weapon like Nasr was used. It is my hope that the region remains stable and a situation where a nuclear weapons actual usage is never contemplated.

It may not achieve Counter Value objectives as a second strike weapon but could have Counter Force capability. On the other hand, some important locations in Punjab (Indian), Rajhistan and Gujrat can be vital targets with potentially great economic loss to India.

My personal opinion is that any war that may be considered as Total War by Pakistan may see the use of Nasr and hence escalation. For the rest I pray for what you hope.

 

[mysterious]

Well, I think the title of this thread should drop the word 'nuclear' so that other missile news coming out of Pakistan can be shared under this thread as well instead of opening multiple new threads.

The latest news comes with regards to Pakistan's currently weak air-defense network. It appears that Pakistan has purchased THREE batteries of the LY-80 E MRSAM. The odd thing is the small number purchased therefore it appears to be a stop-gap measure aimed towards plugging holes in the air-defense network towards protecting Pakistan airspace from alien aircraft intrusions. Definitely a decent system from what I've been reading up on it.

It is an interesting mix considering this is Pakistan's second area-defense system purchase after the Spada-2000 deal.

 

[88a]

Pakistani Army conducts training launch of Ghauri ballistic missile

The Pakistani Army has successfully conducted a new training launch of the indigenously built Ghauri medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) of 1300 kms.

Aimed at testing the operational and technical readiness of the command, the trial was conducted by the Army Strategic Forces Command's Strategic Missile Group in presence of senior officers from strategic plans division, strategic forces, scientists and engineers of strategic organisations.

Pakistani Army strategic plans division director general lieutenant general Zubair Mahmood Hayat expressed full satisfaction over the standard achieved by the strategic forces during training.

According to an Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) statement, the soldiers demonstrated their ability to efficiently handle the weapon system in the field and also fulfilled all pre-specified operational and technical objectives.

The missile is believed to have been fired from the transporter erector launcher from Tilla Test Range in Jhelum District, Pakistan.

"The soldiers demonstrated their ability to efficiently handle the weapon system in the field."

Developed by Khan Research Laboratories under the Pakistani-integrated missile research and development programme, Ghuari is a single-stage liquid fuel rocket motor-propelled ballistic missile, capable of carrying both 700kg conventional and nuclear warheads at a range of 1,300km.

Designated Hatf-V, the missile is claimed to be a variation of North Korea's Rodong-1 missile, and has been manufactured into two variants, Ghauri-I and Ghauri-II, which has increased motor assembly length and improved propellants, and a maximum range of 2,300km.

Development of the third variant, Ghauri-III, which was planned to have a range of more than 3,000km, was cancelled for reasons unknown.

Ghauri missile was last test launched under the supervision of the new strategic command and control support system (SCCSS) in November 2012.

Image: The Ghauri ballistic missile can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads up to a distance of 1,300km. Photo: Copyright 2015. ISPR.

http://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/imagelibrary/Ghauri missile.jpeg

Pakistan successfully test-fires Ghauri missile

 

[safriz]

It may not achieve Counter Value objectives as a second strike weapon but could have Counter Force capability. On the other hand, some important locations in Punjab (Indian), Rajhistan and Gujrat can be vital targets with potentially great economic loss to India.

My personal opinion is that any war that may be considered as Total War by Pakistan may see the use of Nasr and hence escalation. For the rest I pray for what you hope.

The missile is technically advanced and with high maneuverability can Dodge any enemy ABM.
Pakistani missiles are my special field of interest and I have created some infographics which hopefully I will be able to post after 10 comments