Harking back to the conversations on rebuilding ACF. Some observations.
In a university history course I am currently studying, it is the general opinion that the NZ Armed Forces, in particular the RNZAF have no real combat capability and that this is detrimental to NZ. The students said that we no longer have the capability to protect our assets, EEZ and nation. These are students who are generally aged 18 - 23 and I am the aberration age wise. So my read is that public opinion maybe changing and it could be easier for the poli's to justify a greater slice of the pie for NZDF and in case of RNZAF the re-establishment of an ACF.
It has been noted that the F16 deal of the 1990's was a very good deal in NZG's favour but if I remember correctly they were block A aircraft. Now Taiwan has some F16 Block C/D aircraft it wants to buy from the US but the USG won't approve the deal because of political issues with the PRC.
Outlook gloomy for Taiwan F-16 C/D deal I don't know if the aircraft have been built or not but maybe NZG could approach the USG and offer to take say 15 of the aircraft on a lease - buy deal. With financing etc., since the Wellington Declaration it could possibly be easier to obtain such an arrangement.
Secondly we no longer have the experience or expertise so under the same scheme a training arrangement could be made with the USAF and maybe USN after basic jet training with RAAF or RAF. I am sure RAF could use extra money. That brings me back to the 18 zero timed Hawk T2's that the RAF have parked up. I have mentioned it before on the NZDF forum, but I am still of the opinion that NZG would be making a very astute move purchasing those aircraft and the aircrew because the price will be cheaper than if we got them direct from the manufacture. Again this could be done under a deal negotiated with the USG.
If the Hawk T2 doesn't fly then the KAI T50 which does have some advantages over the Hawk which have been covered previously in this forum.
Indonesia orders 16 T-50 trainers I note that KAI also have an armed version the TA50.
The reason why I propose a USG funding deal is that one was offered back in the1990's when relations between the countries were a lot frostier. It is to the USG's advantage for NZ to have a greater militarily capability within the Pacific, especially South Pacific area. Secondly the uptake of the funding is spread over time so it is not one big charge on the NZG accounts at once. Thirdly such a deal would be more politically and publicly acceptable in NZ now than it was during the 1990's. Fourthly the perception that NZ is moving start pulling it's weight more militarily will not be lost on Washington and Canberra, so such a deal will be attractive to Washington. Fifthly when the C130H replacements start to happen a 2 x C17 and 6 x C130J deal could be struck with Washington. Finally a C27 buy would be advantageous as well.
Having read through the link, and my own current reading of the US political tea leaves...
I do not think a NZG order for some of the F-16's that Taiwan wants would be viable as proposed for the following reasons.
Firstly Taiwan is looking to purchase 66 F-16C/D's. Now I readily admit this is an assumption I am making here, but if Taiwan is looking to purchase these in order to keep the Taiwanese Air Force ahead of the PLAAF which has been inducting the J-10, Su-27 and Su-30MKK into service and testing the J-20... It would make sense to me if the F-16's that Taiwan wants are current/late production models, Block 50 or later. Given that these cost ~USD$40 mil. + per aircraft, and that the total order for just the aircraft, not including support, training, spare, etc would cost upwards of USD$2.6 bil. With all that in mind, as well as the political and trade issues caused by prior US arms sales to Taiwan, I feel comfortable in asserting that it is unlikely that construction has begun on these F-16, since no company is going to want to produce a product which they might not be able to sell (due to FMS/ITARS issues) that costs that much money. In short, I doubt these particular F-16's exist for anyone to purchase yet.
Secondly, while the now defunct F-16 sale proposed about a decade ago was for 'creampuff' early block models at a very low price, I doubt such a sweetheart deal could be had now. My doubt on this has less to do with the US-Kiwi relationship, which has been getting better (about d*mn time, now that the ideologues in Wellington and DC have less influence and practical, pragmatic people have more say) but is more due to concerns within the US about budgetary spending. I sense a greater reluctance to spend US money subsidizing military purchases for foreign nations. A very small number of nations are likely to continue receiving large allocations due to the political realities involved in cutting such military aid, but I suspect some of the biggest recipients in recent years might find US military aid to them drastically cut. With that sort of reality in mind, if the RNZAF was looking at purchasing any late block F-16's, I suspect that the US Gov't and LM would be delighted, as long as NZ paid the tab in full.
Now, if there is a growing awareness within NZ of the actual limitations the NZDF has, and there is a growing willingness and desire to regain and rebuild some lost capabilities, that is all to the good. Or at least, it is if things can be arranged so that a change in Gov't cannot change/end the rebuilding.
Personally, if NZ does wish to regain some form of ACF, which I have said before I think it should have, at least in a limited fashion to provide a minimum level of air intercept and joint/OpFor training, then the Korean Golden Eagle TA-50's are, in my opinion at least, the best way to go. Some refurbished ex-RAF Hawks might be available for less, but these are less capable aircraft, and would be second hand aircraft. Which means that they would likely need replacement some time in the decade after purchase as their airframe life gets reached. From my POV better to spend a little more (and new TA-50's apparently cost less than new Hawks...) to get a better over all aircraft which can be kept in service for longer. At some point further down the road, if decisions are made that the RNZAF does need dedicated fighter aircraft, then production fighters can be ordered at that time. In the mean time, the TA-50 could provide additional training opportunities for RNZAF pilots on fast jets, and also be used to provide air defence and FAC/CAS training. Plus of course able to provide an air intercept capability since the TA-50 is a supersonic trainer/light attack, unlike the Hawk which is subsonic.
-Cheers
