I appologize in advance, there are a number of different items in posts by different people that I wished to respond to. Therefore this might be rather long, and/or I might accidentally include things not referenced, or possibly deleted.
I disagree with your assessment regarding threats. You must always work to a worse case scenario and we are open to maritime threats. With regard to the naval element I have left a detailed comment on the RNZN forum page. I haven't yet figured a number for the P8 but I feel a minimum of 4 backed up by say 3 - 4 marine patrol modules that can fit into the C295/C27 Spartan. With regard to the fixed wing fast movers my preference would be for F16 / shornets but being fiscally prudent possibly the KAI TA50 with pilots going on to be qualified on RAAF shornets & F35s. That way there is an immediate trained and qualified backup for the RAAF. So my thinking is 15 - 20 TA 50s. For basic training my suggestion would be:
1. Get rid of the piston engines for training. Use turbo prop and glass cockpit.
2. Maybe PAC can come up with a trainer based on the Cresco 750.
3. Probably more feasible go with a purpose built turbo prop trainer with glass cockpit and bang seats.
I would suggest a slight modification here, namely that in planning, one plans for reasonable worst-case scenarios. Absolute worst-case scenario would involve situations which virtually no amount of planning or defence spending and NZDF build-up could achieve victory against.
With regards to MPA... Unfortunately due to costs I doubt that the NZDF would be able to purchase more than 4, at least initially, but that should be the absolute minimum number purchased, to allow aircraft and crew rotations and also deep cycle maintenance. Do not forget, that the RNZAF currently has MPA patrol responsibilities for a number of friendly South Pacific nations, so the P-3K Orions patrol more than just the Kiwi EEZ. Having 3-4 smaller, mid-ranged MPA based upon the CN-235 or C-295 airframe could be quite helpful. Whethat that means the RNZAF gets dedicated CN-235MPA aircraft (at ~USD$23-24 mil. per) or a more modular aircraft which has MPA sensors mounted but a mission module with can be added and removed, allowing lift as well as MPA missions depending on needs... Someone would need to make decisions as to what they want, and what they are willing to spend on it. My personal preference would be for the RNZAF to have somewhere upwards of a dozen MPA to provide coverage of NZ and the EEZ/approaches. In addition, I would like NZ to have some land-based, long-ranged EEZ or air/surface surveillance radar. Given the vast areas NZ should be watching over, and the relative paucity of patrol assets, anything which can improve the ability to monitor should be looked into. I also acknowledge that such systems might not be viable or cost-effective for NZ, particularly due to NZ's potential for tectonic activity, which could shift elements of such systems out of alignment and spec.
The other area I potentially disagree with is scrapping or replacing the piston-engined aircraft with more advanced ones. The CT-4 Airtrainer is just a basic training aircraft, as such, switching it out for more powerful and advanced aircraft, particularly to just teach basic flying, might not only be more expensive, but also result in more accidents and losses during training. Keep in mind, the ADF has advanced prop trainers, LIFT and training helos and multi-engines. Before a pilot gets into any of these aircraft though, they would have been taught basic flight training in a CT-4 Airtrainer owned by a company that has been contracted by the ADF to provide basic flight training.
A more feasible goal that I would like to see the Airforce aim at would be to produce pilots sufficiently trained in jet fighter aircraft that they would be able to slot straight into an operational conversion aircraft (of say a 4th generation fighter).Thus giving us the ability to generate a squadron of fighter pilots within 6 months, should the strategic situation deteriorate.
We would only need a small number of aircraft that would train pilots to LIFT level. I see great potential for say the KAI T/A-50 here.
Umm... No. Not happening. Given the skills needed to be trained up and then honed regularly, if a situation were to suddenly start to deteriorate, a squadron of pilots could not be trained up to operate fighters within six months. Assuming that the pilots were reasonably competent, they could certainly undergo conversion training into a fighter aircraft in that time, but they would NOT be ready to undergo missions in whatever combat aircraft they were transitioned to. From memory, the estimates I had come across were that if NZ did decide to standup a fighter squadron again, once said squadron resumed flight operations and training again, it would likely take ~5 years before the skill was rebuilt to 1999/pre-scrapping the ACF levels. Now, the ACF when it existed was considered very competent, but it does illustrate that a great deal of training, is needed to make a fighter force effective.
Todjaeger, sorry I should have made the financing clear, I wasn't expecting the the USG to pick up the tab but to facilitate the financing with the NZG paying in full over time. I totally agree with regard the KIA TA50, but I mentioned the Hawk T2 because it would appeal to the baser nature of Kiwi polis - cheap.
If I can go back to the DWP of 2010, it list a series of core NZ defence policies in order of priority.
1. To defend NZ from attack etc.
2. To treat any attack on Australia as an attack on NZ and to go to Australia's immediate aid.
If the RNZAF has an ACF that say was like 75 Sqn & 2 Sqn which were specialists in CAS and maritime strike, then it is a role that can slot in with the RAAF and any other allied force. Kiwis forget that 95% of our trade is maritime and the perception is that we might be a long way from any potential enemy. That perception is a fallacy because modern weapons systems have a long reach. Our first line of defence is not the EEZ, it is as far north of Darwin as we and the Australians can make it. To the east it is Rapa Nui (Easter Island). To the west it is the far side of the Indian Ocean, South Africa. To the south it is Antarctica. That is IMHO why we need a ACF that is as good as, if not better than, what 75 Sqn and 2 Sqn were before Helen Clark castrated the RNZAF in 2001.
The financing, whether it was direct military aid from the US, or aid in the form of being able to make graduated payments to the US or LockMart... Either way, I am not certain that would be feasible or palatable, given some of the budgetary wrangling and political fights going on, or prepping to begain.
This is one area that I believe Australia should endeavour to help our Kiwi brother regain ACF.
If the Kiwi government was to be serious about returning the ACF, getting some additional Hawk LIF second hand from the RAF even as a short term gap filler to expanded the RAAF LIF program, with additional Hawk aircraft, the Kiwis can have the same training and time in a Hawk LIF to the RAAF counterparts.
This if adopted now will be in by the time when Australia starts moving to F35A, will in turn hopefully lead the Kiwis transitioning to legacy hornets as short term gap filler then once the RAAF is ready to hand back the Super Hornets move on to those. Move two squadron’s of legacy hornets over to RNZAF once RAAF begin transitioning to F35A these hornets would have been stood down anyway, giving them away to the Kiwis I have no problem with that. At the start it is all about reintegrating and training to gain the skill set lost. For the cost of six refurbished ex RAF Hawk LIF aircraft now and maintenance for 24 legacy hornets then buy the 24 Super Hornets over fifteen to twenty years I do not think it will break the bank for the Kiwis.
It would be nice if they could also move into F35A and have access to the Australian maintenance train but with the USN flying Super hornet out till the late 2035ish will still have a cheap and ready suppler of parts in the greater pacific area, with an aircraft capable of provide the full spectrum of ACM from CAS to Maritime strike and have the ability to integrate fully with the RAAF with the added ability to provide cover for the egress route and refuel F35A aircraft if it was not safe for a tanker to safely operate in, just like HMNZ Endeavour is called the RAN third tanker, RNZAF Hornets will be Australia right flank squadrons.
Yes it will be expensive to maintain the legacy hornets at first but will be cheaper than buying 30 F/A50 aircraft and the logistic train that goes with it and having a aircraft not compatible with the nearby Australian/ USN logistic train, but once into the Super Hornet the aircraft should be cheaper to maintain again.
Honesly, I would oppose any move to gift or sell ex-RAAF HUGs to the RNZAF. In terms of electronics and avionics, they are rather good. Unfort, in terms of the airframe/flight hours lifespan, they are shagged. It looks like enough hours and airframes remain to keep the force flying until the F-35 deliveries begin. Once that starts, I expect the RAAF to start retiring the least airworthy/most shagged Hornets, which the RNZAF would have no responsible business being interested in.
Now, once a decision is made on whether the RAAF SHornets are kept in service, the RNZAF might want to express interest in those if the RAAF is not going to keep them. Those aircraft at that point should still have 20-30 years of flight time remaining in their airframes at that point, but some form of RNZAF ACF/fast jet unit would need to get off the ground first (yes, the pun was deliberate
).
-Cheers