No-fly zone over Libya

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Is very hard to distinguish a strike of opportunity from an opportunistic strike, if that makes sense. Given the variety of actors inside each country, and the international nature of the coalition, it is almost 100% certain that both motivated the intervention.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
He'll do what he has to, to stay in power, that's for sure. 'Regime Change' has not been mentioned yet but that can change. Despite all the talk about intervening for ''humanitarian reasons'', ''to save civillians'', etc, plus all the stuff they haven't said, I really can't see France and the U.K. agreeing to Gaddafi hanging on, not after all the diplomatic and military effort they have put in, not to mention the huge financial outlay.
The UK and France want stability and peace more than anything else. They don't want Gaddafi to go just because they've been firing off missiles, they want him gone because him staying is the worst thing for everyone, especially the Libyan people.

Besides, the folks at Dassault and Nexter need customers for the Rafale and the Lerclerc and I'm sure the leadership of a post-Gadaffi government will be too happy to oblige
What post-Gaddafi government? The rebels are finding it hard enough to organise themselves as it is. And they're not going to spend billions of dollars on fancy European hardware they won't need when they'll have a country to rebuild. The French know that, I'm sure.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Yeah. I expect any military rebuilding in the immediate aftermath (assuming a new government) will be confined to refurbishing enough of the surviving aircraft, patrol vessels, etc. for air policing, border & coastal patrol, etc., not a Gaddafi-style spending spree. They'll have higher priorities.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
The UK and France want stability and peace more than anything else. They don't want Gaddafi to go just because they've been firing off missiles, they want him gone because him staying is the worst thing for everyone, especially the Libyan people.
All of us want peace and stability in the region, not just in Libya. What makes Libya so different ? If other sovereign countries in the region with closer, more traditonal/established ties had resorted to military action to subdue a rebellion by their people, would France and the U.K. have reacted in the same manner they did over Libya?

What post-Gaddafi government? The rebels are finding it hard enough to organise themselves as it is. And they're not going to spend billions of dollars on fancy European hardware they won't need when they'll have a country to rebuild. The French know that, I'm sure.
Well let's wait and see what happens.... Though things on the ground might not have progressed as fast as the U.K., France and other countries might have hoped, the fact remains that the no fly zone and the ground strikes have benefited the rebels in some way. They may be disorganised, they may still be suffering reversals at the hands of the pro-Gaddafi Libyan forces but the rebels are undeniably in a much better situation now than they were before the strikes.

I find it incredibly hard to believe that the U.K. and France, especially after all the effort they have put in, will be content to see Gadaffi clinging on to power. There is certainly no mention of 'Regime Change ' yet, but as you pointed out earlier, there doesn't have to be. There is already talk of arming the rebels and of a ground intervention.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
Can No-Fly Zone Bring Down Khadafi ??

Guys, for the sake to fokus the discussions more on the effectiveness of No-Fly zone in Libya, how many of you Gentlemen that still think that No-Fly zone alone can bring down Khadafi's regime ?? Or in the other word, who among you guys still think that the Rebels ground forces with only Nato's help in the air will be effective enough to rolling down Khadafi's Army ??

For me I'm still backing my previous posts that Nato now must send ground troops if they want to change Khadafi's regime (i,e, the Rebels from time to time already proved sucessfully they are useless as a effective fighting force)
 

Sampanviking

Banned Member
Well if your theory is correct then we should see re-activation of many Saudi-Russian defence contracts that were close to being signed, but are now essentially stuck. Interesting thought. That would be a way of compensating Russia for the ~4 billion USD in lost contracts with Libya.
Or useful intelligence provided to deal with some domestic irritants?

BBC News - Russia 'kills 17 North Caucasus militants'
Russia 'kills 17 North Caucasus militants'

Certainly this reads as a major and "timely" breakthrough against a group that has embarrassed the Prime Minister in particular.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
All of us want peace and stability in the region, not just in Libya. What makes Libya so different ?
Ok, let's start invasions of China, North Korea, Iran, Saudi Arabia and every other country with dodgy human rights. The free world versus the unfree world, winner gets to decide the world's political make-up for the next millenium. :rolleyes:

Let's be realistic, the world only works because people who disagree on fundamental issues can agree to put them to one side at least temporarily. This covers a whole range of issues, historical, military, economic, cultural, etc. But sometimes things get so bad that something gives and in a few instances a country or countries take action. Libya just happened to be the next flashpoint. And when there's a flashpoint it normally means that there won't be another one for a while because most countries can only deal with one thing at a time.

I find it incredibly hard to believe that the U.K. and France, especially after all the effort they have put in, will be content to see Gadaffi clinging on to power.
Who are you talking to? Who here is saying that they want Gaddafi to stay? My point is, as I have tirelessly pointed out, that Gaddafi cannot stay because he has pledged to massacre civilians he suspects of being or supporting rebels.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Who are you talking to? Who here is saying that they want Gaddafi to stay? My point is, as I have tirelessly pointed out, that Gaddafi cannot stay because he has pledged to massacre civilians he suspects of being or supporting rebels.
I was under the impression that I was talking to you... And the point that I'm trying to make, is if Gadaffi 'cannot' stay as you mentioned it, then the countries that have led the intervention should just say so instead of beating around the bush. Why didn't they say so in the first place prior to the no fly zone being launched?? When the no fly zone started there was no talk of a post Gadaffi Libya but there is now. There was even talk of a partitioned Libya. There was certainly no talk of a ground intervention then - I suspect this was because it was hoped that the no fly zone and strikes would lead to decisive results on the part of the rebels.

They should also say that irrespective of whether the rebels gain more ground or not and irrespective of whether Gadaffi 'behaves', he cannot be allowed to stay in power. And that a ground intervention, apart from protecting civilians from Gadaffi forces and humanitarian work, is also intended to topple Gadaffi, or is intended to create the conditions to enable the rebels to roll into Tripoli,period. At least then we 'll know what the end game is and what political objectives are intended to be achieved :rolleyes: .
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Or useful intelligence provided to deal with some domestic irritants?

BBC News - Russia 'kills 17 North Caucasus militants'
Russia 'kills 17 North Caucasus militants'

Certainly this reads as a major and "timely" breakthrough against a group that has embarrassed the Prime Minister in particular.
It's too uncertain whether this is a coincidence. It would also have to be some incredibly good/valuable intel. I doubt intel alone would be enough.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
They have said that Gaddafi has to go!
Well yes BUT they didn't before did they??

At least now we know what the political objectives are, IN addition to ensuring civilians are not targeted by pro-Gadaffi forces. Prior to this, it was was very unclear what the no fly zone and strikes were meant to achieve! And if a similiar scenario where to erupt elsewhere, let's hope the same determination and effort in 'saving and protecting' civilians, as is being done in Libya, will be shown. After all, the same rules must apply to ALL other civilians, irrespective of which countries they come from, who find themselves on the receiving end of their country's military.

Where do you get your news from, Libyan State TV?
No, I dont get access to Libyan State T.V. Do you?

Guys, for the sake to fokus the discussions more on the effectiveness of No-Fly zone in Libya, how many of you Gentlemen that still think that No-Fly zone alone can bring down Khadafi's regime ?? Or in the other word, who among you guys still think that the Rebels ground forces with only Nato's help in the air will be effective enough to rolling down Khadafi's Army ??
If the no fly zone and strikes were enough to topple Gaddafi there would not IMO be talk of arming the rebels and intervening on the ground.

I could be wrong here but my take is that when the no fly zone and strikes were launched, none of the countries involved were under any illusions that the rebels would suddenly reverse the situation on the battlefield. But there was a hope that over time the rebels would steadily gain an advantage - not so much in overruning the whole country or in totally defeating the pro- Gaddafi forces but in creating the conditions that would have led to a cesssation of hostilities and Gaddafi giving up power.

As events unfolded, with both the pro and anti-Gadaffi factions having their shares of retreats and advances, the realisation crept in that the situation might lead to Gadaffi staying in power with the rebels holding on to an enclave or parts of Libya. And this was something that the U.S., the U.K. and France were not willing to accept despite their past anouncements that they were intervening only to protect civillians.

Leading article: Many vexed questions still remain for international coalition - Leading Articles, Opinion - The Independent

Disillusioned Libyan rebels flee and abandon their gains - Africa, World - The Independent -

Adrian Hamilton: None of us knows what will happen next in Libya - Adrian Hamilton, Commentators - The Independent

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12911904
 
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Humming Drone

New Member
Guys, for the sake to fokus the discussions more on the effectiveness of No-Fly zone in Libya, how many of you Gentlemen that still think that No-Fly zone alone can bring down Khadafi's regime ?? Or in the other word, who among you guys still think that the Rebels ground forces with only Nato's help in the air will be effective enough to rolling down Khadafi's Army ??

For me I'm still backing my previous posts that Nato now must send ground troops if they want to change Khadafi's regime (i,e, the Rebels from time to time already proved sucessfully they are useless as a effective fighting force)
With no-fly zone without ground strikes - not a chance.
With no-fly zone and ground strikes - slim chance (not in the near future), they don't have the resources, organization, training, and discipline.
In the long-term the rebels will likely prevail if the coalition settles for a stalemate now (which I don't see happening at all).
 

Haavarla

Active Member
It was just on the radio news this morning.
The UK is now deploing SAS forces and MI6 in supporting the Rebels.
Obama said the CIA will also aid the Rebels.
This is for training, orginising troops and intel gathering.
The rebels need some link between the good intel from air that can be used on the ground operation.
I bet they will get some weapons too.
 

Sampanviking

Banned Member
It's too uncertain whether this is a coincidence. It would also have to be some incredibly good/valuable intel. I doubt intel alone would be enough.
You have to be suspicious of "coincidences" of this sort. It is however the kind of thing that any Government would value and it is the kind of Intel that the Saudi's would be well placed to provide. Whether it is the whole deal or just part of a package? guess we will just have to wait and see.

Christmas could be coming early in Moscow this year! Not to mention Delhi, Rio and Beijing.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
You have to be suspicious of "coincidences" of this sort. It is however the kind of thing that any Government would value and it is the kind of Intel that the Saudi's would be well placed to provide. Whether it is the whole deal or just part of a package? guess we will just have to wait and see.

Christmas could be coming early in Moscow this year! Not to mention Delhi, Rio and Beijing.
There have been major "successful operations" against insurgents in the North Caucus for years. No doubt many of them are over trumped and over reported. No doubt many of them are real. It's possible you are right, but then in the coming months we should see huge operations with a string of major successes against the various groups. It would take at least that to pay for a favor of that magnitude, especially from a regime that hasn't been Russia's best friend, or client state.

So far we don't see that kind of evidence. We will have to see how it plays out. Personally, I'm skeptical.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Before when? Before the uprisings started and Gaddafi promised to bathe eastern Libya in blood?! :confused:
Allright, here we go again.... When plans about the no fly zone were first circulated and when it was actually carried out, none of the countries that pushed for the no fly zone mentioned anything about regime change. The public impression they gave through numerous statements was that they were willing to see Gaddafi stay in power as long there was a halt in hostilities and a halt in civilian deaths. The emphasis was on preventing attacks on civillians NOT on securing a change of regime. If you have any references that show 'Regime Change' was publicly mentioned at the early stages of the intervention, please provide them and I will gladly admit that I'm mistaken......
 

Palnatoke

Banned Member
Allright, here we go again.... When plans about the no fly zone were first circulated and when it was actually carried out, none of the countries that pushed for the no fly zone mentioned anything about regime change. The public impression they gave through numerous statements was that they were willing to see Gaddafi stay in power as long there was a halt in hostilities and a halt in civilian deaths. The emphasis was on preventing attacks on civillians NOT on securing a change of regime. If you have any references that show 'Regime Change' was publicly mentioned at the early stages of the intervention, please provide them and I will gladly admit that I'm mistaken......
Maybe this is one of the rare cases of politicians saying one thing, but actually doing something else..........?
 
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