No-fly zone over Libya

[lucinator]

The Enterprise strike group has not yet been moved into the area, and remains south of Suez. Kearsarge and Ponce have docked in Souda.

(she's also not a EU/NATO-Europe ship, which is what that post was about)

guess the article I read was wrong. all well.

 

[lucinator]

He's one person. Nothing is going to happen without a UN mandate, Russia and China will veto. The US is not keen and the EU doesn't have the political will outside of France/UK.

The current military build-up is there to provide humanitarian support and even these assets will restrict themselves to the Eastern coastline.

And who is going to pay to sustain a no-fly zone?

America and to a lesser degree UK, has spent billions fighting in Iraq/A-stan. The last thing they need is another huge bill for no-fly zones over Libya. It would be financially more prudent to supply the opposition with Stinger/Starsteak and provide disposable quality AT weapons + training.

1.you had said the rebels did not want a no-fly zone and I was just disputing that, since he was the highest ranking military commander in the rebel organization.
2.stinger missiles aren't all that effective against jet aircraft as they have a relatively short range and rely on IR tracking, their better for helos
3.it hard to supply rebels, many of whom are in isolated pockets with arms especially if gaddafi sams have 100+ mile ranges

 

[lucinator]

Interesting article here on the issues involved in an 'intevention' and some background.

Libya and the folly of intervention - Opinion - Al Jazeera English

Given the present situation, it's hard to imigine that just a few years ago, after giving up his nuke programme, Gadaffi was back in the 'good book's 'of some countries and that international defence companies were flocking to the LAVEX shows, eager for contracts to revitilise the Libyan Air Force.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap...G41MAQ?docId=7bcdf11e54af477ea8f88355d3c963c2

As riksavage pointed out, the situation with regards to creating a no fly zone is more political than anything else. A UN mandate should be a requirement, with all major players agreeing on a common strategy - which is no easy undertaking! Whilst creating and enforcing a no fly zone is well within the military means of the NATO, my concern is what happens next if the situation in Libya drags on indefinitely with Gadaffi and anti-Gadaffi forces controlling different parts of the country, as they do now. How long will foreign forces be required to mantain the no fly zone? And what if a similiar situation were to erupt in another country, whilst the situation in Libya was still violatile - would there be the political will and resources to intervene there also?

the Iraqi no fly zone actually had no official UN mandate

No-fly zone - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[lucinator]

To be brutally honest they can indeed project power, and probably maintain an effective no fly zone. However I seriously doubt about European NATO being able to launch a full on intervention with ground troops. A single airborne brigade is nice. But you'd need more then that to even control Tripoli.

no but with a nofly zone you might be able to use that brigade or special forces to kill/capture gaddafi.

 

[lucinator]

A brigade would be nice, however in my opinion, it would not need to hold the majority of Tripoli for very long to maintain control. Just enough time (if well coordinated) to "open the gates" to let rebel ground forces enter the city and take over operations once inside.

I have a question, besides mortars, I haven't heard much in the use of artillery yet. Does anyone here have any ideas of their artillery strength?

As to the no fly zone, I thinks its a great idea. Gaddafi has already targeted ambulances carrying wounded civilians, I personally do not trust him to NOT bomb refugees trying to flee the fighting in the cities.

The IISS estimated artillery in service in 2009 as totaling 2,421 pieces. 444 SP artillery pieces were reported; 122mm 130 2S1 Carnation; 152mm 140: 60 2S3 Akatsiya; 80 M-77 Dana; 155mm 174: 14 M-109; 160 VCA 155 Palmaria. 647+ towed artillery pieces were reported: 105mm 42+ M-101; 122mm 250: 190 D-30; 60 D-74; 130mm 330 M-46; 152mm 25 M-1937. 830 Multiple rocket launchers were reported: an estimated 300 107mm Type-63; 122mm 530: ε200 BM-11; ε230 BM-21 Grad; ε100 RM-70 Dana (RM-70 multiple rocket launcher?). The IISS also estimated that Libya had 500 mortars: 82mm 428; 120mm ε48 M-43; 160mm ε24 M-160. Surface to Surface Missiles reported in service include FROG-7 and SCUD-B, (416 missiles).

Admin: It is good manners and forum etiquette to provide citations when copying and pasting someone elses work - even when its Wiki. Please read the forum rules.

 

[riksavage]

I think a sensible solution would be a nofly zone and air support for the rebels. For some reason people have less trouble bombing people then butting boots on the ground so it would have more support.

Too true, the days of Somme/Verdun daily casualty reports being tolerated by the population are long gone, even relatively small numbers of KIA's cause domestic angst.

A pilot flying at 20,000 feet is a relatively safe option compared to troops engaged in urban combat. Plus pilots haven't got the media on their backs 24-7. A no-fly zone is the least risky whilst at the same time demonstrating commitment to halting human rights abuses. Boots on ground can be restricted to protecting safe havens, providing potable water, food and sanitation.

The UK has deployed a tri-Service JFHQ multinational Noncombatant Evacuation Operation Co-ordination Cell to Malta based out of the British High Commission in Valletta which is coordinating international military evacuation operations, currently 18 nations are working together to share information and coordinate activity. This advance planning will form the backbone of any humanitarian support activity under the umbrella of a no-fly zone if passed.

 

[swerve]

The IISS estimated artillery in service in 2009 as totaling 2,421 pieces. 444 SP artillery pieces were reported; 122mm 130 2S1 Carnation; 152mm 140: 60 2S3 Akatsiya; 80 M-77 Dana; 155mm 174: 14 M-109; 160 VCA 155 Palmaria. 647+ towed artillery pieces were reported: 105mm 42+ M-101; 122mm 250: 190 D-30; 60 D-74; 130mm 330 M-46; 152mm 25 M-1937. 830 Multiple rocket launchers were reported: an estimated 300 107mm Type-63; 122mm 530: ε200 BM-11; ε230 BM-21 Grad; ε100 RM-70 Dana (RM-70 multiple rocket launcher?). The IISS also estimated that Libya had 500 mortars: 82mm 428; 120mm ε48 M-43; 160mm ε24 M-160. Surface to Surface Missiles reported in service include FROG-7 and SCUD-B, (416 missiles).

That's inventory, not in service. As with the tank force, a large proportion of that massive artillery inventory will lack trained crews, & much of it has probably been in storage since being delivered.

Also, very many of those guns, MRLs, & mortars are now in the hands of rebels, although they are only using a small proportion. Remember, every military depot in the eastern half of the country has been seized by rebels.

 

[swerve]

...
2.stinger missiles aren't all that effective against jet aircraft as they have a relatively short range and rely on IR tracking, their better for helos
3.it hard to supply rebels, many of whom are in isolated pockets with arms especially if gaddafi sams have 100+ mile ranges

"Aren't all that effective" =/ ineffective. LARAF jets are bombing from quite low levels, well within MANPADS range.

Most of the rebels are in the east, not in isolated pockets. Of the pockets in the west, probably the most important is Misurata, which is a port.

Libyan SAMs are not likely to be effective. They're old & compromised, easily beaten by NATO aircraft.

 

[swerve]

You said that a no flyzone alone would not do much good, on the other hand the rebels are putting up a good fight against Gaddafies forces and so far they where able to stop Gaddafi time after time the only real problem they have is Gaddafies air force which bombs them while they cannot defend them self against it.
So if you ground Gaddafies planes then you take away a big chunk of Gaddafies power projection to a city or region where his troops try to regain control.
However i believe or start to believe that either Gaddafi is holding back or his army is falling apart from the inside out as i imagine that his army should be strong enough to stop the rebels, taken into account that his army does have tanks and other heavy weapons that the rebels do not have.

The air force is not the only problem the rebels have. Gadhafi's troops appear to have better command & control & better organised logistics, & are able to deploy heavy weapons more effectively, giving them more firepower.

The rebels do have heavy weapons. They control every arms depot in eastern Libya, including tanks, artillery - even fighters on air bases they hold. Their problems are in using those weapons.

 

[Waylander]

Maybe the Arabian League should just donate some money and hire a boatload of eastern european mercenaries which could man and deploy the heavy weapons as well as train the rebels.
Add to that another boatload of additional MANPADs and ATGMs and the rebels should give Ghaddaffi something to think about.
I mean finally the Arabian League could do something besides talking.

I find it funny how they are also talking about a no-fly-zone without even a hint of adding their forces to it.
Great show...

 

[STURM]

Maybe the Arabian League should just donate some money and hire a boatload of eastern european mercenaries which could man and deploy the heavy weapons as well as train the rebels.

I'm sure quite a few ex-Foreign Legionaires and ex-Executive Outcomes people would be willing to do the job .

I mean finally the Arabian League could do something besides talking.

Fat chance. Half the time they can't even agree on anything but hold emergency summits and endless dicussions that lead nowhere. In an Arab League summit a few years back, Gadaffi lambasted the Arab countries, saying that whilst the Palestinian issue remain unresolved, the Arabs were only good at talking and at scheming against each other for influence.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-hPum5tk7U"]YouTube - Eric Margolis on Moammar Gadhafi[/nomedia]

 

[Waylander]

Eastern European mercs would probably know most of the stuff the rebels captured.
Not that other mercs wouldn't come in handy.

In the end fighting the ground war mostly by themselves may very well lay the foundation for the identity of a new state.

 

[Feanor]

Ok i understand well theoretical speaking what would happen if this court issues the arrest of Gadaffi?

Taken into account that he does commit one war-crime after another?
I mean will this not be a classic situation where the western world will take this fact as a pre-tekst to legalize the use of force against him and his followers?

Specially when Russia and China might veto a UN mandate, but in case of a court order they can veto as much as they like but the court has spoken which have to be followed right? would this make a Un mandate possible then?

To be honest I'm not sure. A court issued arrest order would require the cooperation of the Libyan government to enforce in its own right. I believe a UN mandate would still require Security Council consensus.

no but with a nofly zone you might be able to use that brigade or special forces to kill/capture gaddafi.

Before we go doing that we need to decide what outcome we want to see.

 

[sgtgunn]

Quite a few memebers of the Arab League (Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Yemen, Kuwait, Iraq, Sudan etc...) are terrified (or at least very nervous) about what is going on in Libya (and what happened in Tunisia and Egypt) and that it might happen to them (or continue to happen in cases like Yemen or Bahrain). While they can't speak in support for Gaddafi, they all worry they might be in his shoes in a month or two, so I can't see them being very enthusiastic about agreeing to the west helping to topple an Arab government (like theirs) even indirectly.

No-Fly zones over Libya could = No-Fly zones over <Insert other despotic Arab State>.

That's why countries like Russia and China will probably oppose any intervention - they love to talk about "non-intervention" in the affairs of other soveriegn states, becuase they want the freedom to be able to oppress thier own people without outside meddling. Same is likely with other members of the Arab League.

Adrian

 

[Feanor]

Quite a few memebers of the Arab League (Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Yemen, Kuwait, Iraq, Sudan etc...) are terrified (or at least very nervous) about what is going on in Libya (and what happened in Tunisia and Egypt) and that it might happen to them (or continue to happen in cases like Yemen or Bahrain). While they can't speak in support for Gaddafi, they all worry they might be in his shoes in a month or two, so I can't see them being very enthusiastic about agreeing to the west helping to topple an Arab government (like theirs) even indirectly.

No-Fly zones over Libya could = No-Fly zones over <Insert other despotic Arab State>.

That's why countries like Russia and China will probably oppose any intervention - they love to talk about "non-intervention" in the affairs of other soveriegn states, becuase they want the freedom to be able to oppress thier own people without outside meddling. Same is likely with other members of the Arab League.

Adrian

In the case of Russia, at least, there is little concern that the west could reasonably intervene in their affairs. The real issue is that they have a reputation for dealing with unsavory regimes. They can't very well go around advocating intervention against those same regimes. They're the main source of modern arms for Gaddafi. They're perfectly willing to say "He's a political corpse" but they're certainly not willing to advocate actual intervention.

 

[lucinator]

That's inventory, not in service. As with the tank force, a large proportion of that massive artillery inventory will lack trained crews, & much of it has probably been in storage since being delivered.

Also, very many of those guns, MRLs, & mortars are now in the hands of rebels, although they are only using a small proportion. Remember, every military depot in the eastern half of the country has been seized by rebels.

off course, I was just replying to someones request for info on what the Libyans might be using.

 

[Bonza]

Could you please stop posting one-liners Lucinator? If you're going to respond to multiple posts, you can use the multi-quote function (the little speech bubble button with the red sign next to the "reply" button, click it and it turns green, then when you click the reply button down the bottom of the page it quotes all the posts you've selected), and we try to minimise the number of one liners on the forums as they're against the rules.

Thanks mate.

 

[Feanor]

Reports are coming in that most media and news coming out of the country are falsified. Instances mentioned include the burning of automobile ball bearings to imitate smoke from bombings, when western film crews are around. Komsomolskaya Pravda says the locals claim that the western and even arabic news crews are more interested in filming a "new film about Rambo". Apparently Tripoli is currently stabilized, with stores open and schools working.

There are also allegations of Egyptians and Tunisians being involed in the disorders.

Tripoli under fire in media information war &mdash; RT
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êàääàôè èñïóãàëñÿ ïðåâðàùåíèÿ Ëèâèè â êîëîíèþ Çàïàäà. Ìåñòíûé æèòåëü: ÑÌÈ ñëîâíî "ñíèìàþò ôèëüì ïðî Ðýìáî"

Meanwhile the rebels continue to request a no-fly zone, and claim they control 90% of the country even as Gaddafi's troops retake Al-Zaviyah. The whole thing is starting to smell bad.

Lenta.ru: Â ìèðå: Âîéñêà Êàääàôè âçÿëè Àëü-Çàâèþ

 

[kato]

Reports are coming in that most media and news coming out of the country are falsified.

Well, while i wouldn't necessarily agree with that in general, there is some stuff out there that is rather funny.

The funny Rambo poses with PKs for example, captioned as "rebel firing at attacking government jet". Except there's no belt on that PK. Or the guy dramatically shooting his RPG exactly parallel down the road. Using a stick to stabilize it.
Oh yeah, or the guys firing a ZPU at nearly 90 degrees into the sky. In that pic there's even a fighter visible in the sky in the background - in perfect position to dive in for a bit of strafing, if he'd be serious. They're just standing around looking upwards. Awful lot of those actually.

Or - just seen in a Euronews video from today - the reporters dramatically running away. While there's three guys sitting on the ground talking, and turning their head like "what?" when the reporters run by.

Or that dirt cloud next to a convoy that gets captioned as "Libyan jets attacking rebel positions". Except there's quite clearly a 122mm rocket visible launching out of that dirt cloud. Right at a oil fire smoke cloud in the background btw, which rebels claim are caused by Gaddafi's troops.

 

[sgtgunn]

Well, while i wouldn't necessarily agree with that in general, there is some stuff out there that is rather funny.

The funny Rambo poses with PKs for example, captioned as "rebel firing at attacking government jet". Except there's no belt on that PK. Or the guy dramatically shooting his RPG exactly parallel down the road. Using a stick to stabilize it.
Oh yeah, or the guys firing a ZPU at nearly 90 degrees into the sky. In that pic there's even a fighter visible in the sky in the background - in perfect position to dive in for a bit of strafing, if he'd be serious. They're just standing around looking upwards. Awful lot of those actually.

Or - just seen in a Euronews video from today - the reporters dramatically running away. While there's three guys sitting on the ground talking, and turning their head like "what?" when the reporters run by.

Or that dirt cloud next to a convoy that gets captioned as "Libyan jets attacking rebel positions". Except there's quite clearly a 122mm rocket visible launching out of that dirt cloud. Right at a oil fire smoke cloud in the background btw, which rebels claim are caused by Gaddafi's troops.

LoL - Maybe all the reporters who actually know anything about combat are all in other places - like Afghanistan.

Adrian