No-fly zone over Libya

[Ananda]

actually the rebel forces are almost as well armed, and a no fly zone could be used to conduct bombings like Kosovo if the situation changes since the United States/NATO/UN or however the zone is under jurisdiction wise could decides to change their mind,

also this thread is getting away from its original purpose of weighing the pros and cons of a no-fly-zone and more importantly how one would do it, I'm more interested in the technical reasons for these issues than the politics

The rebels recently are losing towns/cities and 'not' gaining new ones from Khadafi's control. They may be relatively well armed, but Khadafi's has the Libyan's elite force and some of better trained mercenaries. Whille the opossitions hold more to regular soldiers and armed militia's.

If the report show that trend, then technically it will be difficult by Western powers to judge if they take chances for no fly zone, it will effect the balance in the ground. Khadafi's himself not using his airforce as much as he actually can. Whille eventhough the rebels/oppositions have some anti-air assets, the latest and more advances anti-air assets I believe located in Tripolli and under Khadafi's hand. That mean Khadafi's hold most of anti-air oppositions that western forces may has to deal if they want to conduct proper no-fly zone.

Again, what can the no-fly zone really do, since the Khadafi's forces used mostly ground forces to push back the oppositions. That's why the oppositions leaders hoping if no-fly zone implemented by western forces, they also attacking khadafi's land forces (i,e, act as oppositions/rebels air forces, something I think beyond what no-fly zone really means to).

Politically, if the West want to conduct no fly zone, it will be done without UN Concent (since more likely China and Russia will block it). This will matter since present US and Western leaderships are not the same as the time of Bush 'wild west' gung-ho policy. I mean, It's Obama in the office now, he's now trying to clean-up Bush's mess in Iraq and Afghanistan. He' will have strong objections to enter new interventions, particularly if he see's the Khadafi's forces now winning.

 

[swerve]

The rebels recently are losing towns/cities and 'not' gaining new ones from Khadafi's control. They may be relatively well armed, but Khadafi's has the Libyan's elite force and some of better trained mercenaries. Whille the opossitions hold more to regular soldiers and armed militia's.

Gadhafis elite troops seem to be reserved for his personal protection & holding Tripoli. He has the problem that his loyal troops are needed to prevent rebellion in the places he still controls. If he tried to send them to recapture Benghazi, he'd risk losing Tripoli. The rebels don't have that problem.

Gadhafi has been trying to retake cities near Tripoli, but so far has been beaten back. His troops are reported to have marched into one almost undefended rebel town not far from Tripoli & stayed. They also retook the oil terminal at Brega briefly, but were thrown out again very quickly. The front ended up further west than before the attack.

Neither side seems to be able to support offensive operations over any distance. The rebels lack organisation, & haven't managed to organise logistics, so can't advance far from their depots. Gadhafi's troops seem to have little stomach for a fight, & their logistics aren't in much better shape. Stalemate.

I don't know why you think there are 'better trained mercenaries' in Libya. The African soldiers identified seem to be a few Tuaregs from Mali, & migrant workers who have no real choice, not professionals.

 

[kato]

the latest and more advances anti-air assets I believe located in Tripolli and under Khadafi's hand.

They're actually pretty spread out - both SA-3 and SA-2 - but yeah, they're primarily in Gaddafi-controlled territory. Not just Tripolis, but also other cities like Sabha.

Does anyone know, out of all the 3 services in the Libyan armed forces, which service traditionaly was made up of Ghadaffi favourites or people from his clan?

Gaddafi's clan controlled the Air Force.

The number of air strikes is very small in proportion to the number of aircraft Gadhafi has, even allowing for most of them not being serviceable. One presumes that since the defections, he's only using pilots he is sure are loyal.

He's also probably only using very experienced pilots it seems. We've so far as far as i know only seen strikes by Su-22, possibly a MiG-23 mixed in here and there - the vast amounts of lighter, less-complicated attack aircraft (L-39ZO, Galebs, the recently overhauled SF.260WL) that would be rather suitable for COIN at this level, especially if used en-masse, haven't really seen any use.

The strikes also seem to be rather targeted, and so far mostly of a strategic nature - captured bases and depots, occasionally probably intentional near-miss strikes on convoys of rebels to dissuade them from continuing. Very measured means, if one thinks of it - after all, we could have Scuds dropping on Bengasi instead.

actually the rebel forces are almost as well armed

Neither the rebel forces nor Gaddafi are really using their military equipment though. What little combat there is happens at an almost pure infantry level with light support weapons like jeep-mounted ZU-23. There have supposedly been some heavier weapons used in support in Brega recently (by Gaddafi), but the rebels apparently can't bring such systems into combat, even if they have them.

 

[Feanor]

Gaddafi's forces have been using large numbers of tanks APCs and IFVs, but most of them don't seem to be actually engaged in combat.

A few days ago there was a statement by the Russian MoD, where they said they've been monitoring the conflict from space in real time, and that they images they're getting conflict with the reports coming out of the media. The one instance they actually disclose is that the media reported news of airstrikes on Bengazi turned out to be false.

I really have to wonder what is really going on inside Libya. It seems on one hand like the perfect storm. On the other its almost like neither side is actually trying to fight.

 

[kato]

It's also somewhat telling that in Tripolis, police is apparently still just firing tear gas at demonstrators.
Doesn't really mesh with earlier stories.

 

[sgtgunn]

I don't see a "No-Fly Zone" as being particualry useful right now. It would cost a lot of money, require rhe destruction of the Libyan air defense network first (and probably strikes against C4 nodes and air bases), all for what? Prevent a small number of Libyan aircraft from dropping a few bombs here and there - it's not like the Iraqi Air Force killing the Kurds from the air wholesale (at least not yet).

What's the goal here? That's the real question. Keeping the Libyan Air Force grounded doesn't accomplish much. The Libyan Army & Sec Forces loyal to Gaddafi can kill plenty of civilains and rebels from the ground if they want too.
Does the "West" want regime change? Support the rebels? Everyone needs to take a deep breath - come up with a desired end state that is plausible and that a group of the major players can agree on (UN security council or NATO/EU, etc.), figure out what can be done to achieve it, weigh the cost (political and economic), and then make a decision if it's worth it or not.

My guess is that very little besides words (resolutions, indictments, sanctions, etc.) will occur.

Much of the EU/NATO is military intervention-phobic these days, even the US is losing it's appetite for being world cop, and major Arab nations might not like Gaddafi, but they are terrfied of the precedent that is being set there by the rebels (and in places like Tunisia,Bahrain and Yemen).

Maybe......If the Egyptians can work out thier own domestic situation soon and establish a government firmly based on the ideals behind thier recent revolution, then maybe they would be willing to intervene on behalf of the rebels in Libya. Egypt has the largest military in Africa & the Arab World, and the 10th largest in the world. They have M1 Abrams, Longbow Apaches, F-16C/D, MLRS,etc...

They'd squash the Libyan armed forces pretty easily I'd guess - and it would certainly be better to have Arabs liberating Arabs.

I doubt that'll happen, especially given the uncertainty in Egypt right now, but it would be interesting to see.

Adrian

 

[jtm]

Hi,

A no fly zone requires radar coverage, and planes to intercept, with tankers for obvious refuel needs (Libya is quite a big country). I can't see too many options there.
It's impossible to use ground based radars in Libya so Awacs will be required, and to my understanding, carriers are the only solution. The French navy can deploy fighters and radar from carrier CDG (in south of France at the moment, in Toulon), i don't know where are the closest US carriers. Appart from the US, France, and the UK, I can't see any western military capable of setting a no-fly zone in Libya on such short notice. So, to answer the initial post, I think that if a no-fly zone was to be decided, it would use the military of these countries. Maybe Italy can send planes, with refuelling above the Mediterranean sea, from carriers taking off from Malta, Spain, Gibraltar, or Italy. Cyprus is really far, too far ?

This said, maybe I'm wrong, and maybe carriers are not the only solution. I don't think that the young regimes of Tunisia and Egypt are likely to accept US/Nato military operations from their soil. Once more, il might be wrong, but it's really difficult to assess the situation in these countries at the moment, so...

regards

 

[kato]

carrier CDG (in south of France at the moment, in Toulon)

Charles de Gaulle is East of Suez on the back edge of a just-completed 4-month mission. The "carrier" in Toulon is the Mistral, which is about to go to Libya escorted by Georges Leygues.

 

[jtm]

I confirm the CDG is in Toulon at the moment.

Source : French MOD Website (Le Charles de Gaulle de retour Ã* Toulon - Journaux de bord : Marine nationale)

The Mistral is not a carrier, but a C&C ship, which can deploy combat and transport helicopters (It's the type of ship the French have just recently sold to the Russians)

Regards

jtm

 

[lucinator]

Gadhafi has been mounting air strikes since the rebels first took control of a town. He hasn't started in the last couple of days.

One crew has ejected. Two pilot flew their aircraft out of the country. The rebels have reported finding the bodies of air force officers who were executed, they presume for refusing to fire on rebels, in an air base captured in the east.

The number of air strikes is very small in proportion to the number of aircraft Gadhafi has, even allowing for most of them not being serviceable. One presumes that since the defections, he's only using pilots he is sure are loyal. Maybe he's holding families hostage to ensure loyalty. However he's ensuring their loyalty, their bombing is so inaccurate that the rebels are suggesting the bombs are aimed to miss. Not one of the attacks on the munitions store at Ajdabiya has done significant damage, for example.

in proportion? he only has 150 is combat planes and most are thought to be grounded due to lack of spare parts, and on top of that several have fallen into rebel hands, also the worry is that one good air strikes on a large crowd possibly with chemical weapons (according to Libyan ambassador to united states).

 

[lucinator]

Let's hope that the next Air Forces Monthly issue has more details. Does anyone know, out of all the 3 services in the Libyan armed forces, which service traditionaly was made up of Ghadaffi favourites or people from his clan?

supposedly (according to JANES) he uses mostly mercenary pilots, from all over the world.

 

[lucinator]

The rebels recently are losing towns/cities and 'not' gaining new ones from Khadafi's control. They may be relatively well armed, but Khadafi's has the Libyan's elite force and some of better trained mercenaries. Whille the opossitions hold more to regular soldiers and armed militia's.

If the report show that trend, then technically it will be difficult by Western powers to judge if they take chances for no fly zone, it will effect the balance in the ground. Khadafi's himself not using his airforce as much as he actually can. Whille eventhough the rebels/oppositions have some anti-air assets, the latest and more advances anti-air assets I believe located in Tripolli and under Khadafi's hand. That mean Khadafi's hold most of anti-air oppositions that western forces may has to deal if they want to conduct proper no-fly zone.



Again, what can the no-fly zone really do, since the Khadafi's forces used mostly ground forces to push back the oppositions. That's why the oppositions leaders hoping if no-fly zone implemented by western forces, they also attacking khadafi's land forces (i,e, act as oppositions/rebels air forces, something I think beyond what no-fly zone really means to).

Politically, if the West want to conduct no fly zone, it will be done without UN Concent (since more likely China and Russia will block it). This will matter since present US and Western leaderships are not the same as the time of Bush 'wild west' gung-ho policy. I mean, It's Obama in the office now, he's now trying to clean-up Bush's mess in Iraq and Afghanistan. He' will have strong objections to enter new interventions, particularly if he see's the Khadafi's forces now winning.

as stated earlier it is to prevent extreme mass casualties and open up opportunity for relief missions, and possibly air strikes. Also under Clinton we bombed Kosovo and Bosnia under, NATO not UN.

 

[lucinator]

They're actually pretty spread out - both SA-3 and SA-2 - but yeah, they're primarily in Gaddafi-controlled territory. Not just Tripolis, but also other cities like Sabha.


Gaddafi's clan controlled the Air Force.


He's also probably only using very experienced pilots it seems. We've so far as far as i know only seen strikes by Su-22, possibly a MiG-23 mixed in here and there - the vast amounts of lighter, less-complicated attack aircraft (L-39ZO, Galebs, the recently overhauled SF.260WL) that would be rather suitable for COIN at this level, especially if used en-masse, haven't really seen any use.

The strikes also seem to be rather targeted, and so far mostly of a strategic nature - captured bases and depots, occasionally probably intentional near-miss strikes on convoys of rebels to dissuade them from continuing. Very measured means, if one thinks of it - after all, we could have Scuds dropping on Bengasi instead.


Neither the rebel forces nor Gaddafi are really using their military equipment though. What little combat there is happens at an almost pure infantry level with light support weapons like jeep-mounted ZU-23. There have supposedly been some heavier weapons used in support in Brega recently (by Gaddafi), but the rebels apparently can't bring such systems into combat, even if they have them.

very interesting review, finally, this is more of the lines that I had hoped for in a discussion.

 

[lucinator]

It's also somewhat telling that in Tripolis, police is apparently still just firing tear gas at demonstrators.
Doesn't really mesh with earlier stories.

according to video evidence, its tear gas and bullets at the same time

 

[lucinator]

I don't see a "No-Fly Zone" as being particualry useful right now. It would cost a lot of money, require rhe destruction of the Libyan air defense network first (and probably strikes against C4 nodes and air bases), all for what? Prevent a small number of Libyan aircraft from dropping a few bombs here and there - it's not like the Iraqi Air Force killing the Kurds from the air wholesale (at least not yet).

What's the goal here? That's the real question. Keeping the Libyan Air Force grounded doesn't accomplish much. The Libyan Army & Sec Forces loyal to Gaddafi can kill plenty of civilains and rebels from the ground if they want too.
Does the "West" want regime change? Support the rebels? Everyone needs to take a deep breath - come up with a desired end state that is plausible and that a group of the major players can agree on (UN security council or NATO/EU, etc.), figure out what can be done to achieve it, weigh the cost (political and economic), and then make a decision if it's worth it or not.

My guess is that very little besides words (resolutions, indictments, sanctions, etc.) will occur.

Much of the EU/NATO is military intervention-phobic these days, even the US is losing it's appetite for being world cop, and major Arab nations might not like Gaddafi, but they are terrfied of the precedent that is being set there by the rebels (and in places like Tunisia,Bahrain and Yemen).

Maybe......If the Egyptians can work out thier own domestic situation soon and establish a government firmly based on the ideals behind thier recent revolution, then maybe they would be willing to intervene on behalf of the rebels in Libya. Egypt has the largest military in Africa & the Arab World, and the 10th largest in the world. They have M1 Abrams, Longbow Apaches, F-16C/D, MLRS,etc...

They'd squash the Libyan armed forces pretty easily I'd guess - and it would certainly be better to have Arabs liberating Arabs.

I doubt that'll happen, especially given the uncertainty in Egypt right now, but it would be interesting to see.

Adrian

on Egypt, I think if this conflicts draws out that's exactly what might happen, given Gaddafi and the sepratists are about at a draw this could go on for a while, and the Egyptians might get involved earlier if the military who is in control right now deems it best to intervene.

also as for reasons there are a few I have thought of
1.after Obama's comments Gaddafi is going to be pissed at the US for a long time so doing even if he wins the US loses in terms of relations with Libya. IF the rebels win then we might have good relations because we supported them, and if they win and we do nothing then try to have companies go i and try to do business in Libya (which their sure to do) then they might be a little cold for not helping them when they asked for it (depends on who you talk to if you believe if they have asked for help).
2.It would show the world that the United States can conduct military operations without inflaming the populous, something that would help in numerous countries.
3.It is a threat to Iran which has similarly cracked down on dissidents.

 

[Ananda]

I don't know why you think there are 'better trained mercenaries' in Libya. The African soldiers identified seem to be a few Tuaregs from Mali, & migrant workers who have no real choice, not professionals.

I mean relative better trained than the Armed Militia's that seems now become more and more Backbone of Oppositions forces.
Granted now the info from Libya is clouded, but I believe it's not a stalemate. The Oppositions seems become desperate to get International/Western interventions. This in my book shows that they see if this goes on, Khadafi's forces will be able to reorganize and counter attack more strongly.

I believe the Khadafi's forces right know still taking by surprises that they reorganize themselves more (i,e..trying to figure out who's really still behind the regime). But In long term they are more organised than the oppositions force.

Still it's more on my reading based on limited 'true' info that come out from Libya.

They're actually pretty spread out - both SA-3 and SA-2 - but yeah, they're primarily in Gaddafi-controlled territory. Not just Tripolis, but also other cities like Sabha.

It might be limited to western standard, but it's that need to be taken out by West if they decided for no fly zone. In short, west must take to considerations that the Oppositions has not abble to soften potential anti-air challanges in Libya. Off course the west can neutralise them, afterall it's not like Khadafi's have better anti-air capabilities than Saddam or the Serbs.

 

[Ananda]

as stated earlier it is to prevent extreme mass casualties and open up opportunity for relief missions, and possibly air strikes. Also under Clinton we bombed Kosovo and Bosnia under, NATO not UN.

US not overstreched in Iraq and Afghanistan under Clinton. This is Obama we're talking now, the guy come to office to clean up Bush mess in the middle east, and not add another mess.

 

[Feanor]

in proportion? he only has 150 is combat planes and most are thought to be grounded due to lack of spare parts, and on top of that several have fallen into rebel hands, also the worry is that one good air strikes on a large crowd possibly with chemical weapons (according to Libyan ambassador to united states).

Most are grounded? Hmm. I mean it is a third world country, but I'd imagine he'd have most of his aircraft flyable...

 

[jtm]

Most are grounded? Hmm. I mean it is a third world country, but I'd imagine he'd have most of his aircraft flyable...

I, too, think that the Libyan AF is quite OK. Since 2004 the West sold them all the spare parts they needed. Thus I disagree with you when you say that Libya is a third world country, for 2 reasons :
- 3d world doesnt exist anymore, for 20 years :goodbad
- with $12k/person, and an HDI of 0.847, I don't think we can say that the country is poor, nor under developped.

Just sayin

 

[T.C.P]

BTW just what makes members here think that third world countries can't have proper air forces with flyable air craft. We are a third world country and all our air craft are flyable and in perfectly good shape!!