No-fly zone over Libya
- Thread starter lucinator
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Which makes me wonder what the reaction of the West would be if a 'friendly' Arab country like Saudi, Bahrain or Qatar did what the Libyans are doing, would the Western reaction be the same? If a no fly zone is declared and enforced over Libyan skies, will there also be the political will and the resources to have simliar no fly zones in other countries if something similiar were to happen?
A no fly zone will certainly need bases from Italy, Cyprus and most probably Greece. Non of Libya's immediate neighbours are likely to grant basing rights. Countries contributing to the no fly zone will have to agree as to what objectives are meant to be achieved, under what conditions/ROE's. The question in my mind is what use will there be of a no fly zone if the Libyans in response stop using air power and resort only to ground forces to deal with the dissidents. Asumming there is a UN mandate for a no fly zone, and I think there should be, will the mandate call for Western aircraft to also come to the aid of dissidents who are being overwhelmed by pro-Gaddafi forces? Will it include humanitarian missions as well?
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- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #5
you forget that Egypt and Libya have fought wars against each other since Gaddafi took over, and with the military's strong ties with the US not to mention that they are not happy being overwhelmed by refugees that they might lend airbases and even help enforce a no fly zone.
also I would like to keep the political sentiment here to a minimum, country bashing is for other forums. Thank you.
also I would like to keep the political sentiment here to a minimum, country bashing is for other forums. Thank you.
The 2 countries did have border skirmishes/clashes in the past but I doubt if that will play a part in Eqypt actively participating in a no fly zone over Libya. I could be wrong but given the current political situation in Egypt, is doubtful if Egypt will take part in enforcing a no fly zone
Agreed, but who's been 'country bashing'??
Lets drop that line of inquiry entirely. Don't worry, if someone does, we'll catch it. and if there's an issue just use the report button.
I am sorry but as far as I see it this no-fly zone idea is not going to accomplish much, except maybe help spend money.
Gaddafi has shown himself to be crazy enough to order and the fighters/bombers fly anyway. And most of the MiG-23 and MiG-21 are grounded and some have been lost to protesters.
What is everyone hoping to achieve with the no-fly zone, most of the pilots ordered to bomb the protesters have flown out and ejected. I dont see how nations would benefit with the no-fly zone
Gaddafi has shown himself to be crazy enough to order and the fighters/bombers fly anyway. And most of the MiG-23 and MiG-21 are grounded and some have been lost to protesters.
What is everyone hoping to achieve with the no-fly zone, most of the pilots ordered to bomb the protesters have flown out and ejected. I dont see how nations would benefit with the no-fly zone
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Well it would create the image that something is being done.
Yeah
But I dont see how there would be benefit for the nations who would spend time and money to be in the no-fly zone and patrol it.
Wouldn't this no-fly zone also mean that Gaddafi would not be able to fly out of Libya?
Ananda
The Bunker Group
The Arab League has stated they don't want any Military Intervention in Libya, and I think this also included no-fly zone. THe neighbouring Arab states (Egypt and Aljazair) will need all their armed forces to safe guard the stability on their own nation and border. So no help from them for this endevour.Yeah
But I dont see how there would be benefit for the nations who would spend time and money to be in the no-fly zone and patrol it.
Wouldn't this no-fly zone also mean that Gaddafi would not be able to fly out of Libya?
The Khadafi's forces winning the battle with the oppositions if the news so far seems to show. No Fly-zone will not help the oppositions (if that the West think it will gain), and surely will only enraged Khadafi and his loyalists more. What it can only achieved is to ensure Libya's as Western's pariah, whille will not help much to the oppositions.
When (and I say when not if), Khadafi's forces begin to take Bhengazi's and Tobruk back, the oppositions in Libya will ceased to exists. By that time Libya and all it's oil will be back to Khadafi's hand, and he will be sorely 'pissed' with the US and West. Something that West now are perplexing with what they should do.
Besides, will US and West really want to involve with another Military interventions considering they already overstreched with Iraq and Afghanistan ??
Well that's why the Asians stay in the fences, if Khadafi win back Libya and he's surely pissed with the west, and the good chances Oil companies from China and with lesser extent Oil companies from Indonesia and Malaysia (in which Petronas, Medco and Pertamina already in the ground for oil in Libya although still in smaller operations), will take the benefit.
But if the oppositions with 'divine' miracle wins...well the Asians oil companies still be there.
Like I said, it would create the impression that something is being done. That would be a political brownie point for the governments of those nations, both internally, where they would be able to say that they helped bring him down, while not committing to anything large or long term, and externally, they would be relatively well positioned to deal with the government that comes to power after him.Yeah
But I dont see how there would be benefit for the nations who would spend time and money to be in the no-fly zone and patrol it.
On the minus side, if Gaddafi turns the tide, and regains control of Libya, Russia, China, and other non-western actors will gain major ground there. The West could end up looking like fools, the price of oil would remain high (if not increase), and the opposition will be out of the picture entirely.
Yes I knew that, I was just to scared to bring the political part and not be banned, I am really confused how much of politics can be discussed here.
Gaddafi still could turn the tide, but that would me a massive genocide and that will not go down that well in the ICC ICJ and the UN.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #14
"western countries": look that statement was very bias its like me saying Arab countries hate western countries, generic statements like that are one personal viewpoints or political viewpoints, this is not a why but how discussion
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #15
not true a no fly zone means we shoot down the aircraft that violate it no say they cant fly, also gaddafi has in the last couple of days started to mount many air-strike missions and only one plane had pilots ditch
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #16
no it means they control the sky, he could request to leave at any point and would be allowed to do soYeah
But I dont see how there would be benefit for the nations who would spend time and money to be in the no-fly zone and patrol it.
Wouldn't this no-fly zone also mean that Gaddafi would not be able to fly out of Libya?
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #17
actually the rebel forces are almost as well armed, and a no fly zone could be used to conduct bombings like Kosovo if the situation changes since the United States/NATO/UN or however the zone is under jurisdiction wise could decides to change their mind,
also this thread is getting away from its original purpose of weighing the pros and cons of a no-fly-zone and more importantly how one would do it, I'm more interested in the technical reasons for these issues than the politics
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There is a profound difference between being cynical on certain policies or a subject and being bias. What I meant by my statement was due to certain Arab countries having more established/traditional ties with the west, and on account of strategic reasons and realpolitik, Western countries might not be so eager to conduct a no fly zone in these countries. My statement does not in a way indicate any biasness and is not a form of 'country bashing''........
Gadhafi has been mounting air strikes since the rebels first took control of a town. He hasn't started in the last couple of days.
One crew has ejected. Two pilot flew their aircraft out of the country. The rebels have reported finding the bodies of air force officers who were executed, they presume for refusing to fire on rebels, in an air base captured in the east.
The number of air strikes is very small in proportion to the number of aircraft Gadhafi has, even allowing for most of them not being serviceable. One presumes that since the defections, he's only using pilots he is sure are loyal. Maybe he's holding families hostage to ensure loyalty. However he's ensuring their loyalty, their bombing is so inaccurate that the rebels are suggesting the bombs are aimed to miss. Not one of the attacks on the munitions store at Ajdabiya has done significant damage, for example.
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Let's hope that the next Air Forces Monthly issue has more details. Does anyone know, out of all the 3 services in the Libyan armed forces, which service traditionaly was made up of Ghadaffi favourites or people from his clan?