Sampanviking
Banned Member
King Comm,I think you touch on some very important aspects in your posts with regard general technological levels in the PRC.
One common theme in much of the media commentary (and indeed in some contributions to this thread) is the bizarre insinuation that because the J-20 project is at a stage that other projects were at 25 years ago, that somehow the PRC is still 25 years or a generation, behind the most developed countries.
Technological development is of course not linear or solid state and the general technological environment in the PRC is vastly different to that of other countries in the mid eighties. Two highly relevant areas in particular - material science and computing, have developed exponentially during this time, meaning that areas and precise technologies that were "cutting edge" then are everyday now. I am sure that the typical 3G phone has more computing power than many top range military systems from the late cold war. Likewise code writing has had decades of mass development to produce sub routines or the models thereof that are practically off the shelf.
The upshot of course is that the amount of actual development work is going to be considerably reduced and the time therefore required reduced in similar measure. Given quotes from the the PLA Brass and experience of Chinese project delivery, I would say that a initial production design should be ready by mid decade.
One common theme in much of the media commentary (and indeed in some contributions to this thread) is the bizarre insinuation that because the J-20 project is at a stage that other projects were at 25 years ago, that somehow the PRC is still 25 years or a generation, behind the most developed countries.
Technological development is of course not linear or solid state and the general technological environment in the PRC is vastly different to that of other countries in the mid eighties. Two highly relevant areas in particular - material science and computing, have developed exponentially during this time, meaning that areas and precise technologies that were "cutting edge" then are everyday now. I am sure that the typical 3G phone has more computing power than many top range military systems from the late cold war. Likewise code writing has had decades of mass development to produce sub routines or the models thereof that are practically off the shelf.
The upshot of course is that the amount of actual development work is going to be considerably reduced and the time therefore required reduced in similar measure. Given quotes from the the PLA Brass and experience of Chinese project delivery, I would say that a initial production design should be ready by mid decade.