I'm having some trouble here wrapping my head around the rumour of a potential catobar solution. Regardless of the possible capex benefits of the latest iteration of catobar vis-a-vis stovl, I have the definite impression that it was the expense of the air wing workup to a catobar conops which was the background for the CVF stovl choice...? Or perhaps it was a sortie generation per plane issue, which is less from a catobar CVF? I.e. a catobar solution is cheaper per plane but not per sortie?
With the retiring of the Harrier, which will be accompanied by thunderous fist banging about the Argentines invading the Falklands again, I suspect the RAF argued that they will offset the loss of a credible CAS fixed wing fleet air arm by posting additional Typhoons or F3's to Mount Pleasant. At then end of the day reinforcing the Falklands is a damn sight cheaper in blood and treasure than trying to take them back. Losing the islands and handing the Argentines a modern well equipped air base with hard standing for 3-4 full sqns would be disastrous and make the 82 campaign look like a walk in the park by comparison. And lets not kid ourselves the GR9 is NOT a CAP aircraft and would not be taking on enemy fast air.
If the RAF keeps their Tornado fleet, gets 160 Typhoons and also gets to keep the new planned refuelers then they will be smiling. Nimrod I suspect is a dead duck particularly now new concerns over safety are being reported.
Reading between the lines I also think the Navy is becoming more and more nervous about the cost of F35B. By the time PW comes on line EMCAT should be a tried and tested system paving the way for the more capable F35C. Also if the UK ends up with only one carrier it will be much easier to dovetail deployments with the French and cross deck F35C's whilst the PW is in refit. Hopefully QE wil be retained as an oversized OCEAN hosting Wildcat, Merlin, Chinook & Apache if and when required.
We are all Navy fans, but the Army & RAF, plus RUSI were dead against the carriers as prestige projects. Securing the construction of both in very difficult times is a win. If and when the economy improves money can be found to fill them.
I think the recent exchanges undertaken by FAA/RAF pilots to the US to train for carrier operations was a good indicator of things to come. This will now have to be a permanent fixture until F35C arrives.
On the bright side SF will recieve a boost and increse in manning.