Pirates
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all they teach is people will do a lot out of desperationi think the pirates teach so much : small and dynamical motor-boats eqqiped with missles are much better than giant destroyers that can be easily destroyed by that fire work
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John Sansom
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What we have to grasp as we deal with the learning curve in this matter is that Somali (and other) piracy is a well structured business involving sophisticated on-shore administrative and intelligence back-up. Ther odds are excellent that the mother ships and on-tow skifffs aren't all just swanning about offshore trolling haphazardly for passing merchant vessels. I'm sure many of them have target information, however rudimentary, and are following instructions--if not orders.
By the same token, ransom negotiations are not arranged and conducted by some barefoot 15-
year old waving a Kalashnikov. On this count alone, a significant degree of sophistication has to be involved. And it would be nice to know just what efforts are being made to root out the :"wheelers and dealers" in the business of selling lives.
1) Yes.
2) Weelll . . . actually, there are. There's a legitimate economy carrying on among the warlords & pirates. Somalia has mobile phone networks covering most of the population, for example, all of which have been set up, by local businessmen, since the country fell to pieces. There are hospitals (there's even at least one functioning medical school), schools, power stations, etc. operating.
Satphones are for the large areas of the country where there are too few people for the mobile phone operators to extend their networks. No nonsense about government licences for networks requiring a certain degree of geographical coverage here! Pure, unfettered, capitalism, tempered by having to pay protection money to bandits (aka warlords, militias, etc). They build where it's profitable.
2) Weelll . . . actually, there are. There's a legitimate economy carrying on among the warlords & pirates. Somalia has mobile phone networks covering most of the population, for example, all of which have been set up, by local businessmen, since the country fell to pieces. There are hospitals (there's even at least one functioning medical school), schools, power stations, etc. operating.
Satphones are for the large areas of the country where there are too few people for the mobile phone operators to extend their networks. No nonsense about government licences for networks requiring a certain degree of geographical coverage here! Pure, unfettered, capitalism, tempered by having to pay protection money to bandits (aka warlords, militias, etc). They build where it's profitable.
So then it wouldn't be that simple. In Chechnya it was illegal to privately operate radio stations, which meant any radio operator not identified friendly was a target. That was the basis behind those complexes. Discerning neutral from hostile sat-phones requires singnificant ELINT assets, I'm not even sure how one would go about doing it.
Not really desperate. Those desperate people are the warlords people. The entire region is rife with corruption, terrorism, and what not. The warlords get the money and launder it threw firms in places like Kenya.
People like to make it look like there is a big benefit for the fishing villages that these boats set out from. There isnt. This isnt a poor thing or a rights thing or a religious thing.(though many of these pirate gangs are involved with somali and other terrorist groups)
Your going to have to do what we once did. Once again storm the shores. But most western nations dont really have enough of a military to do something like that even if they had the political will.
THOUGH, i guess we could hand over all our prisoners to the russians to send back to shore.....
Yes, yes im sure thats what they did.
:sniper pirates
They just didnt tell them about the stick of C4 under the gas tank.
John Sansom
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I rather suspect that these lads would be capable of making their way home, even without nav-aids. Their fishing heritage is ancient and I'd be willing to bet they can read sea and sky very well. If worse came to worst, the fact of their placement in busy shipping lanes might provide a (probably unwelcome) hitchhiking opportunity or, at the very least, workable directional hints.
Even without power, I'd say they could most likely jury rig some sort of "sail" with the potential to crank up a homeward knot or two. The skiffs, of course, may very well carry one or two usefull sculling oars.
Not fun....but not hopeless either.
hwellJuramentado
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The folks you really want to set adrift without hope of rescue are the ones who are pulling the strings - the guys who ultimately get the bulk of the ransoms and are sitting nice and pretty somewhere (probably not even on the African continent!), a drink in their hand, a cute something on their lap and a flunky with a secure sat phone nearby. The actual pirates themselves are just pawns in a larger game.I rather suspect that these lads would be capable of making their way home, even without nav-aids. Their fishing heritage is ancient and I'd be willing to bet they can read sea and sky very well. If worse came to worst, the fact of their placement in busy shipping lanes might provide a (probably unwelcome) hitchhiking opportunity or, at the very least, workable directional hints.
Even without power, I'd say they could most likely jury rig some sort of "sail" with the potential to crank up a homeward knot or two. The skiffs, of course, may very well carry one or two usefull sculling oars.
Not fun....but not hopeless either.
John Sansom
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I agree, Juramentado, but please note that I did not xay anything about "without hope of rescue". In fact, I pointed out that these lads--so willing to wing a few rpgs and some no little quantity of Kalashnikov rounds at unarmed merchantmen--are very familiar with the seas in which they operate and are more than likely excellent seamen and long-range navigators in their own right.
Sure, by all means set the onshore manipulators adrift....but you have to get hold of them first, and you have to do it in a manner which does not contravene the law. Any ideas?
Sure, by all means set the onshore manipulators adrift....but you have to get hold of them first, and you have to do it in a manner which does not contravene the law. Any ideas?
Juramentado
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Well, here's the rub as better writers would say: Some channels are now reporting that those unfortunate pirates have perished after being set adrift. If that was because the Russians set them up so that they couldn't make it home no matter how good their seamanship skills are, then that puts us down the slippery slope - if this type of "justice" is handed out more frequently, what prevents the pirates from becoming more desparate and just killing the crews outright or fighting to the death during boarding or attacks by naval forces?Sure, by all means set the onshore manipulators adrift....but you have to get hold of them first, and you have to do it in a manner which does not contravene the law. Any ideas?
Remember, a lot of factors are keeping those merchie crews relatively safe right now - one of them is the willingness of the shipping industry to pay the ransoms in return for the vessel, cargo and crew. Another other is that the majority of the naval forces to date have not established an ROE that prejuidices the termination of pirates they encounter. If the Russians dispensed this type of vigilantiism, we may be working our way towards the other end of the lethality index. The more it happens, the more the likelihood of a confrontation.
That may appeal to some, but I posit this thought - which would you prefer more of: Confrontations like Moscow University or M/V Taipan? In both cases, the crews were in basitions/saferooms. Change the equation and intermingle the crew in with the hijackers. Does your appetite as the on-scene commander go up or down for a forced entry? Add to that the kicker that this time, they're not kidding - if you don't clear out your VBSS team or helo from the immediate area, they are in fact going to start shooting the crew out of hand instead of just using it as a posturing tool.
The added complexity is that the Russians, like the Chinese, are independent operators. They're not part of the coalition forces and they have somewhat of a free hand to do as they please. Their motivations could be tactical - they really might have felt that they had a good chance of succeeding in an opposed boarding especially with the crew dispositioned as such. But I fear that this might have been more than a bit of political posturing as well, the Russian Bear showing it's claws are still a force to contend with - part of the larger resurgence of Russian interest and influence in world affairs. The former is understandable, manageable and logical. The latter is not. If it's the latter that's driving the decisions to confront, they're putting the merchie crews and the boarding teams at additional risk.
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John Sansom
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Lethal comfrontations involving the"coalition" have already occurred. I cite the marine snipers on the fantail of a US warship as they rescued a US merchant skipper. The status quo ante is most certainkly moving to the quid pro quo post and, at some time in the near future, the proverbial balloon is going to go up to a very considerable height.
Is there a member of the aforementioned coalition ready, willing and able to assume long-term responsibility for pirates taken in the act, as it were? Possibly, the practice of handing off pirate prisoners to nearby states will have to cease, and these wannabe ruffians will then become pawns in the great exchange game. Sadly, I rather suspect that their lives are of little value to the true manipulators we discussed earlier. However, it will be the coalition which will then be seen as changing the rules of the game in a humane and positive manner...while just about any counter move by the pirate "bosses" must eiher match the humane approach or shift into the realm of true nastiness.
Russia, of course, will do what Russia does. Ditto China. To what extent this will put the lives of merchant sailors in further jeopardy will have to be seen. Like it or not, though, it may very well encourage more merchantmen to equip themselves for determined responsive action.
In a considerably earlier post, I suggested considering the interdiction of all the on-shore communications on which the pirates rely. This most certainly would involve the destruction of roads and other transportation means as well as intrusion on electronics. An effective embargo on in-shore traffic would also be part of the picture.
Naturally, this would also require the co-operative participation of regional authorities, however fractured their capabilities might be. What bets in that respect?
Loke it or no, the coalition and others would have to guarantee exclusive fishing rights to local Somali fleets within defined zones (which themselves would be patrolled by coalition vessels to prevent and/or punish foreign poaching).
I know, I know. It sounds like handing somebody a band-aid while whacking him over the head with a two-by-four.....so it would be nice to hear some better operational options.
Juramentado
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No current participant in the coalition forces is interested in becoming the custodian of prisoners - the bill just goes up and up - one would be responsible for transportation, housing, detention and legal proceedings. The legal model also prevents a single nation from becoming the keeper; often a coalition vessel has no legal jurisdiction over the pirates that attacked a ship unless the victim was same-flag. That's why the Danish had to hand over the pirates they captured in February over to the Dutch, because it was a Dutch vessel that was attacked. Arrest-Detain-Transfer; that's it. You can't hand them over to the shaky Somali government; their human rights record is atrocious and would likely execute them outright. Hence the relationships with states like Kenya and Seychelles where human rights and fair trial proceedings are observed.
A regional solution has to involve the states surrounding Somalia as well as Arab neighbors to the north. While an external solution could be applied, the only way to keep the region stable is to engage and empower the nation states that make up the area. That takes a lot more work, political will and diplomacy than is currently at hand.
You want to destroy more of Somalia's limited infastructure to get rid of a few pirates?
The simpler "easy" option would be for the ships to have there own security, alot of the Western and European ships in particular are owned by companies with MASSIVE profit margins they should have atleast some responsibility to protect there own ships.
The better option in the long run is actually help Somalia, not destroy it. As has been said before alot of the actual pirates doing the highjacking are just poor Somalian's who found an easy way to make some cash, if they have other ways to make a living and those that are caught are swiftly punished the numbers trying there luck at being a pirate would drop off quite quickly.
Funny, here's a country with major problem's who causes problems in International shipping and is filled with Islamic extremist's and yet the US invaded Iraq.
I suspect you may have hit the bullseye with the political posturing. Given the abnormally large media coverage this gets in Russian press, and the recent decision to build an anti-piracy ship, it really does seem that this is an opportunity to show that Russia is participating actively in solving an international problem, and is willing to do so aggressively and proactively. US SEALS can take some pirates out with sniper shots, Russian troops can make a forced boarding and save the ship. I can definitely see a message being sent.
John Sansom
New Member
Not quite what I said, ChrisDef....although very close. You left out my call to protect the Somali fishery against significant ravages by foreign fleets. I rather suspect that would fall within the context of "help" for Somalia. And, of course, there have already been massive efforts to brring aid to tthe Somali's for both instant needs and for a future based on peaceful development. It sems that these efforts have just about all foundered on the reefs of warlord-ism.
My suggestion also hardly falls within the defitniion of "destroying" the country. Specific actions against specific "pirate" communities in a manner which minimizes risk to the inhabitants but which definitively brings home the message that piracy has to stop could very well work.
As for the US involvement in Iraq as some kind of offset for Somalia, you might want to recall that countries like the US, India, and others made significant effiorts to bring some kind of order through the rule of law and the provision of food and medical aid to Somalia. Remember?
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