F-X deal is back on. Brazil back in action

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Ares blog claims the decision could be delayed until 2011.

Seems rather far-fetched to me. I believe the Brazilian Air Force needs this replacement rather quickly?

Perhaps this is just another way of putting pressure on the French to lower their price.

The Ares blog also claims that Gripen NG is the favorite of the FAB -- I thought it was the Super Hornet that was the FAB favorite?

Link: Ares Homepage
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Hi,

a post on another forum refers to some "leaks" from the FAB evaluation:

Google Translate

Any of our Brazilian members who has picked up more on this?

To me it sounds not completely implausible; Gripen NG would presumably be significantly cheaper than both the SH and the Rafale. So a cost-benefit analysis could potentially conclude that the single-engine Gripen would be the better choice (assuming, of course, that it is found to be technically adequate).
 

gripen39

New Member
Hi,

a post on another forum refers to some "leaks" from the FAB evaluation:

Google Translate

Any of our Brazilian members who has picked up more on this?

To me it sounds not completely implausible; Gripen NG would presumably be significantly cheaper than both the SH and the Rafale. So a cost-benefit analysis could potentially conclude that the single-engine Gripen would be the better choice (assuming, of course, that it is found to be technically adequate).
The funny thing in this is that the fighter MR Lula premature selected as a winner came out last of the three in these test's, despite that,and a prize twice of the contender that came out first (Gripen) Rafale will probably came out as a winner in this due to reason's that's has nothing to do with fighterjets! :(
 

Salty Dog

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Although the FAB announcement is not official, all indications is the Gripen is their fighter of choice mainly due to acquisition and life cycle costs. The Super Hornet is second and Rafale third.

The official announcement has not been made as this will certainly cause much embarrassment to President Lula who had prematurely announced the Rafale as the F-X2 winner back in September 2009.

President Lula has been claiming all along, the right to make the final decision on F-X2, regardless on what the FAB decides.

Lula is already in a quandary with his MoD and three force Commanders that submitted their resignation letters last week (which he refused) over a different matter.

There's a saying in Brazil that everything ends up "in a pizza", and unfortunately it looks like that's where F-X2 is headed.

Some articles (in Portuguese):

FAB prefere caça sueco a francês (Folha)

FAB prefere caça sueco a francês (Poder Aéreo)
 

B3LA

Banned Member
Well, didn't Lula also say that Rafale would be the winner ONLY IF the French were able to cut the price significantly?

I don't think it will be embarrassing for him to declare any of the other two fighters the winner if Dassault refuses to stick
red labels on their jets and put them on sale.

Brazil saves many BRL in this poker game...
 

Salty Dog

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Whichever fighter is chosen, by the FAB or Lula, the decision still must be ratified by the National Security Council. The Congress must also approve the budget. Only then can a contract be signed.

The fear from the FAB and the competitors is that F-X2 may go the way of F-X1, into the desk drawer for the next administration to decide. 2010 is an election year and time is creeping by.

In an official statement, the FAB has completed their final F-X2 analysis, but this has not been released to the Minister of Defense.
 

B3LA

Banned Member
:usa:sweden:france

Gloves are now officially off :
The French minister of Defence, Hervé Morin stated to the French radio that the Gripen and the Rafale were impossible
to compare against each other, because the Gripen was like a Volvo car, where the Rafale was like a Ferrari.
...Strange, I thought Ferrari was an Italian car...
Maybe he meant a Citroën instead ?
(Technical innovative, but slightly alien to the rest of the world)
 
A

Aussie Digger

Guest
:usa:sweden:france

Gloves are now officially off :
The French minister of Defence, Hervé Morin stated to the French radio that the Gripen and the Rafale were impossible
to compare against each other, because the Gripen was like a Volvo car, where the Rafale was like a Ferrari.
...Strange, I thought Ferrari was an Italian car...
Maybe he meant a Citroën instead ?
(Technical innovative, but slightly alien to the rest of the world)
This political bunfighting is showing this competition to be what it really is.

A farce.

It has nothing whatsoever to do with picking the best fighter jet for Brazil...
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
What I found very interesting was that the FAB in their report ranked Gripen NG ahead of both SH and Rafale, because of cost and ToT.

My point is; they would not have done that unless:

1. The Gripen NG can fulfill all technical requirements and be able to complete successfully all the tasks the FAB can envision

2. They feel quite confident that the Gripen NG (which was described as a "paper plane" by the French recently) can be completed within the timelines.

Also on this board there have been people that have expressed quite a lot of sceptisism towards the Gripen NG, for various reasons. Therefore it is intereresting that some professionals that have access to a lot of information about the program (and are based outside of Sweden) endorse that program and the concept.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
Also on this board there have been people that have expressed quite a lot of sceptisism towards the Gripen NG, for various reasons. Therefore it is intereresting that some professionals that have access to a lot of information about the program (and are based outside of Sweden) endorse that program and the concept.
It's always about differing requirements.

GNG is interesting to Brazil precisely because it is still in development - ToT. Hence financial risk is better balanced against ToT value, than it was in e.g. Norway. The same applies to cost of through life support (upgrades, MLU)

Operational cost is (potentially) attractive to them.

Sth. Am. threat matrix is more predictable and manageable for the Brazilians than for other nations elsewhere on the globe.

GNG is not that interesting to some NATO air forces, because of interoperability (logistics, doctrinal).

It's a good choice, though I'm not putting my money on any horses in this race - I simply can't figure where it will go! :D
 

Salty Dog

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
What I found very interesting was that the FAB in their report ranked Gripen NG ahead of both SH and Rafale, because of cost and ToT.

My point is; they would not have done that unless:

1. The Gripen NG can fulfill all technical requirements and be able to complete successfully all the tasks the FAB can envision
Yes, All three competitor aircraft met the FAB technical requirements, which is why they were finalists from the original six.
 

Salty Dog

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
It's always about differing requirements.

GNG is interesting to Brazil precisely because it is still in development - ToT. Hence financial risk is better balanced against ToT value, than it was in e.g. Norway. The same applies to cost of through life support (upgrades, MLU)

Operational cost is (potentially) attractive to them.

Sth. Am. threat matrix is more predictable and manageable for the Brazilians than for other nations elsewhere on the globe.

GNG is not that interesting to some NATO air forces, because of interoperability (logistics, doctrinal).

It's a good choice, though I'm not putting my money on any horses in this race - I simply can't figure where it will go! :D
Two of the "leaked" reasons for GNG as the FAB 1st choice was cost and room for development. The FAB sees the latter as important as GNG is still a "work in progress" while the Super Hornet and Rafale are fully developed with less room for new development.

In terms of acquisition and LCC, GNG is the clear winner, critical to FAB for the future. The politicians are not even remotely concerned about this.

Brazil to choose France's Rafale jet-govt source

* Lula to choose French Rafale jets for Brazil fleet

* Brazil still seeking lower price for Rafale order

* Air force prefers Swedish plane
So the ball is in France's court to get the Rafale cost down, as promised by Pres Sarkozy back in Sep 2009, and so far balked at by French industry. This would seal Pres Lula's "political decision" for the Rafale.

Still, it is an election year in Brazil, and the press is rife with news that due to the high cost of any fighter package, F-X2 winner may be put off for the next administration to decide, the same road as the previous F-X1.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Still, it is an election year in Brazil, and the press is rife with news that due to the high cost of any fighter package, F-X2 winner may be put off for the next administration to decide, the same road as the previous F-X1.
If Lula decides to leave this to the next admin, is it then expected to be an F-X3 competition, or would one just shift the final decision of the current competition?

In such a case perhaps China would enter the competition with the J-10? Or does China not allow tech transfer?

I believe Brazil and China had some military collaboration on aircraft carriers?
 
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Salty Dog

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Brazilian columnists are questioning the cost/price of the Rafale relative to other offers/negotiations around the world.

The Brazilian Rafale offer is stated as US$10 Billion for 36 aircraft. The Indian offer is stated as US$10 Billion for 126 aircraft and the UAE package for 60 aircraft is estimated between US$8 and US$11 Billion. This has raised many eyebrows as to why Lula chooses the Rafale (his reasons are a Brazil-France strategic partnership) when the FAB is concerned with cost and why the Brazilian Rafale is at a greater cost than India and the UAE.

A NEGOCIATA COM OS RAFALES: EIS O GRANDE ESCÂNDALO
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Brazilian columnists are questioning the cost/price of the Rafale relative to other offers/negotiations around the world.

The Brazilian Rafale offer is stated as US$10 Billion for 36 aircraft. The Indian offer is stated as US$10 Billion for 126 aircraft and the UAE package for 60 aircraft is estimated between US$8 and US$11 Billion. This has raised many eyebrows as to why Lula chooses the Rafale (his reasons are a Brazil-France strategic partnership) when the FAB is concerned with cost and why the Brazilian Rafale is at a greater cost than India and the UAE.

A NEGOCIATA COM OS RAFALES: EIS O GRANDE ESCÂNDALO
This seems rather speculative to me. First off, the Rafale never left the Indian competition, as stated here. Second, comparing figures between tenders is very difficult since there will always be differences in what is included and what is not included. Third, according to other sources 10 billion USD was never mentioned for the Brazil competition:

Últimas apostas para vender caças - Ricardo Noblat: O Globo

FAB never mentioned values, and the preliminary estimate, a year ago, was a total investment of U.S. $ 2 billion, admittedly insufficient to fund the partnership with France. Today, the general assessment is that the deal may reach $ 5 billion.
Also, I think it is wrong to conclude that the "10 billion USD" figure often mentioned for for Indian competition necessarily means that they will pay 10 billion USD for 126 Rafale (if they decide to go for Rafale) Looking at the six a/c in that competion I would expect quite a range of cost estimates from 126 Mig-35 or Gripen at the low end to 126 Typhoon/Rafale at the high end. Do we know that the 10-billion estimate is for the more expensive fighters in that competition? And as already mentioned, what will be included in that price?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It could be that Rafale is losing money should they win the Indian tender, and would make it up in a potential Brazilian tender?
 
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