F-35 Multirole Joint Strike Fighter

[gf0012-aust]

As for Japan being able to do local production of the F-35, and/or include local content, IMO any activity within the Japanese aerospace industry in concert with Boeing or other manufacturors is irrelevant. Given that the F-35 is a multi-national programme with tech tranfer, industrial participation and workshare involving a number of different nations, that introduces a host of additional issues.

..............................

An example of what I mean, is that if Australia's portion of the workshare is manufacturing the F-35A tail assemblies, then with the possible exception of the prototypes and some LRIP, all F-35A's in service would have an Australian-made tail assembly. If Japan decided that they wanted to have F-35A's with tail assemblies made in Japan, I believe that Australia, and/or all the other partner nations would need to agree prior to Japan beginning component manufacture.

-Cheers

This is one of the reasons why I get a little frustrated at the "japan can build JSF" postings. You have clearly articulated why they can't. apart from you, there are other people in here who are connected enough and who have made the same comments.

Japan missed the boat on production - she can only pick up what has not been secured by existing partners - and the smart ones have production fleet contracts (as clearly exampled in your second para)

there needs to be a reality check on some of the other comments that are being posted. wishing it so and stating it as possible when the evidence is already articulated why it can't be so is a tad frustrating.

contracts rule over wishful thinking.

similarly the silliness thats been promoted that Japan has been pushed into JSF over F-22 ignores the fact that the japanese have been involved and informed well before this became a "womans weekly" discussion in the public domain.

 

[gf0012-aust]

I think you may be right. The media "noise" right now is of the tone, that the Japanese are not comfortable at the "pressure" being applied to get on the F35 horse ASAP. Japan holds all the cards here, it will be a multi-billion dollar contract. I am sure they will wait until they get an assurance of Japanese production (there is an important aviation industry in Japan - e.g. links to Boeing for Dreamliner), and technology transfer. Whatever plane they do acquire, will also I think, need to be tailored for their needs (which are different from most nations purchasing the F35).

Japan holds no cards

1) Congress killed F-22 finally on Oct 10. The Senate cannot do anything about it - especially when the service chiefs and the Executive are in sync
2) Japan left the participation slots open for too long. she cannot get fleet work of any significance now because contracts are already in place. if she wants to buy into subcontracting scenarios with any of the consortium then she can go for her life. If she wants to build 230-260 planes all in japan, then the extant consortium partners will pursue lockmart through the courts for breach of existing contracts
3)If she wants piece work then the opportunity exists - but she needs to make up her mind before Israel and SIngapore take whats left. First come, first served
4) If they go with Typhhon, then it impacts on all the other progs that they seek entry to and are flagged for participation with the US and the other consortium members. They can of course go with Typhoon, but then they will bear the burden of integration costs into the US systems that they do want all on their own. The US won't pay for it. We (8.3) won't pay for it. They made a bad commercial and bad planning decision and they will wear it either way. More to the point, the systems that they want to get access to with the US are not similarly available with Europe (and 6 of the Euro partners for example are members of those other critical projects)

They can't be assured of anything except to get in soon before any other production and component slots are taken by the existing 8.3 players.

They played the wrong card, they ignored the advice given to them over the last 5 years on F-22, and they did not have a fallback plan with JSF production opportunities

The US would like Japan to get JSF but they won't force them to because if they do then it raises other issues which they aren't interested in (and thats one of the reasons why Japan was NEVER going to get F-22).

the dynamics of this are way beyond just a platform procurement decision.

 

[swerve]

Sorry, the current F-15J Fleet will last for another decade easily. As for the F-4's only a small number (40 I think?) need to be replaced at the moment. Which, can be done quickly and efficiently by just ordering more domestic built F-2's.

BTW Let's also not forget the sizable US Forces in Japan. From F-15's and F-16's to the USS George Washington and its Air Wing. (not to mention Air Forces in South Korea or Guam)

In short Japan has plently of time.

The F-2, as already said, is optimised for strike. It is a poor aircraft for air defence. Buying more F-2s would be a very inefficient way of replacing the F-4EJs. The F-4EJs are for air defence. All of them need to be replaced soon: the newest is 28 years old, the oldest 38. It's time to think about starting to replace the F-15Js, as well: the first is slightly older than the newest F-4EJ.

US forces in Japan do not do the work of the JASDF. Peacetime interceptions are done by the JASDF. The number of peacetime interceptions is increasing, as incursions into Japanese airspace & close approaches by Russian & Chinese increase. Hence the JASDF desire for urgent replacement of the F-4EJs by an air defence fighter, not more strike aircraft - i.e. not the F-2.

Air forces in S. Korea are committed to the defence of S. Korea, & not available for patrolling Japanese air space. The most likely war scenarios all involve conflict on the Korean peninsula, & therefore they would be entirely committed to fighting in Korea, as would all the US air forces in Japan. The JASDF can not take them into account when planning the air defence of Japan.

What about meeting me half-way here, & actually answering some of my points?

 

[Aussie Digger]

How many flight tests has JSF done till date?

They are up to about 110 flights on the actual F-35 airframe. However considering this forms a small part of the overall testing, with much to be done in laboratories and on the CATBIRD aircraft, I don't take too much from it....

 

[Crusader2000]

The F-2, as already said, is optimised for strike. It is a poor aircraft for air defence. Buying more F-2s would be a very inefficient way of replacing the F-4EJs. The F-4EJs are for air defence. All of them need to be replaced soon: the newest is 28 years old, the oldest 38. It's time to think about starting to replace the F-15Js, as well: the first is slightly older than the newest F-4EJ.

The Air Defense Role of the F-4's has been mostly passed on to the F-15J's for sometime now. So, I don't see why a number of F-2's couldn't replace them. At least not as a "stop gap". Its also worth noting that the USAF has had no problem using F-16's to support its F-15's in the Air Defense Role. As a matter of fact many nations use F-16's in the Air Defense Role. Let's not forget the JASDF F-2 is a close cousin to the F-16.

Yet, I do agree that the F-15's are going to be in need of replacement shortly after the F-4's.

US forces in Japan do not do the work of the JASDF. Peacetime interceptions are done by the JASDF. The number of peacetime interceptions is increasing, as incursions into Japanese airspace & close approaches by Russian & Chinese increase. Hence the JASDF desire for urgent replacement of the F-4EJs by an air defence fighter, not more strike aircraft - i.e. not the F-2.

No, but the USAF and USN would support the JASDF it times of Crisis or War. So, in fact you have to consider both Japanese and Allied Fighters Stationed in or near Japan. When you discuss its Air Defense Capabilities.

Air forces in S. Korea are committed to the defence of S. Korea, & not available for patrolling Japanese air space. The most likely war scenarios all involve conflict on the Korean peninsula, & therefore they would be entirely committed to fighting in Korea, as would all the US air forces in Japan. The JASDF can not take them into account when planning the air defence of Japan.

Of course that would depend on the circumstances. Yet, even in your scenario additional Fighters Aircraft (among other Forces) would likely be moved from the US and other Allied Nations in support of Japanese Forces in any such Conflict. As was done in the first Korean War.

What about meeting me half-way here, & actually answering some of my points?

What points have I not answered???

 

[Crusader2000]

This is one of the reasons why I get a little frustrated at the "japan can build JSF" postings.

Oh, I am not so sure that Japan can't produce the F-35 under license. The only thing for sure is it would be "very" expensive. Yet, price has hardly been a overriding concern in the past. As a matter of fact every Fighter that Japan has purchased from the US. They have produced under license and at great cost. With the last one being a major redesign of the F-16. (i.e. F-2) Which, cost over $110 Million per copy in 2004 Dollars!


In short an Japanese F-35 produced under license would be expensive........YES, Is it possible.....YES, Is it likely..................Well, if you take into account the last 50 years...YES.


Personally, I think its a waste of resouces and is not needed. Just buy a fighter off shelf and include some Japanese Components. Yet, we are not talking what I would do or what you would do. Just what "Japan" is likely to do.

Japan could also build a weapons deliverable nuke within 3-6 months because they have everything in place to be able to do so.

are they technically competent? yes
can they do it? yes
will they do it? under given circumstances - irrespective of their political climate, the threat matrix could lead it down the path of changing its mind

like the JSF - its all possible - but the JSF is bound by a few other external considerations which japan has NO control over.

they could also build an MRBM and strike china, they could also run their own manned space program. etc.... anything is possible.

all this chat about JSF should trigger a little reality check. some people conveniently ignore the real world issues when discussing this topic.

 

[Todjaeger]

Oh, I am not so sure that Japan can't produce the F-35 under license. The only thing for sure is it would be "very" expensive. Yet, price has hardly been a overriding concern in the past. As a matter of fact every Fighter that Japan has purchased from the US. They have produced under license and at great cost. With the last one being a major redesign of the F-16. (i.e. F-2) Which, cost over $110 Million per copy in 2004 Dollars!


In short an Japanese F-35 produced under license would be expensive........YES, Is it possible.....YES, Is it likely..................Well, if you take into account the last 50 years...YES.


Personally, I think its a waste of resouces and is not needed. Just buy a fighter off shelf and include some Japanese Components. Yet, we are not talking what I would do or what you would do. Just what "Japan" is likely to do.

I agree that if Japan did manage achieve reach agreements with the JSF partner-nations/companies, any domestic Japanese production would be very expensive. I do not agree at all that it is likely though.

As I had posted earlier, a number of workshare agreements revolve around fleet production of components. Those countries and companies which have an existing agreement on fleet component production have a vested interest in protecting that agreement, as it provides a steady flow of funds and work to their (the partner-nations') domestic aerospace industry. There is no incentive for them to allow Japan to join production.

This then means that in addition to costs Japan would incur setting up any local production of the JSF and/or components, Japan would need to reach some sort of arrangement with the different partners for component manufacture. In short, Japan would need to go to different partners and 'purchase' the rights to make their own components, in addition to the actual costs to make and purchase the aforementioned components. Given the lack of competition that the partner would be faced with if they do not sell production rights to Japan, Japan might need to make enormous payments to secure those rights, and some rights might still not be secured.

In short, given the timeline Japan faces with respect to the F-4EJ replacement, as well as the legal, diplomatic, economic and technological effort needed to allow domestic Japanese JSF production, IMO it false to state that domestic JSF production is likely.

Can it be done? Yes. Likely? No. If done, it would it be economically beneficial to Japan, certainly no.

-Cheers

 

[Crusader2000]

I agree that if Japan did manage achieve reach agreements with the JSF partner-nations/companies, any domestic Japanese production would be very expensive. I do not agree at all that it is likely though.

As I had posted earlier, a number of workshare agreements revolve around fleet production of components. Those countries and companies which have an existing agreement on fleet component production have a vested interest in protecting that agreement, as it provides a steady flow of funds and work to their (the partner-nations') domestic aerospace industry. There is no incentive for them to allow Japan to join production.

This then means that in addition to costs Japan would incur setting up any local production of the JSF and/or components, Japan would need to reach some sort of arrangement with the different partners for component manufacture. In short, Japan would need to go to different partners and 'purchase' the rights to make their own components, in addition to the actual costs to make and purchase the aforementioned components. Given the lack of competition that the partner would be faced with if they do not sell production rights to Japan, Japan might need to make enormous payments to secure those rights, and some rights might still not be secured.

In short, given the timeline Japan faces with respect to the F-4EJ replacement, as well as the legal, diplomatic, economic and technological effort needed to allow domestic Japanese JSF production, IMO it false to state that domestic JSF production is likely.

Can it be done? Yes. Likely? No. If done, it would it be economically beneficial to Japan, certainly no.

-Cheers

Ok, in your opinion what is Japan likely to do???

 

[Todjaeger]

Ok, in your opinion what is Japan likely to do???

I am honestly not sure. Japan seems to have painted itself into a corner somewhat, leaving it without any real good options. The two best options which come to mind are working to extend the service life of the F-4EF a few more years whilst seeing which nations might be willing to give up some early F-35 production slots. That or chosing to order F-15FX Eagles from Boeing, either as an outright replacement for the F-4EJ, or as an interim replacement while Japan works out a future F-35 order.

Of the six fighters Japan had been looking at for their F-X programme, I see it as follows in order of viability.
Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II: Best long-term option, possible short-term availability issue.
Boeing F-15FX Eagle: Some commonality with existing JASDF Eagles, questionable on long-term service viability due to possible emerging threats.
Eurofighter Typhoon: Modern 4.5-Gen design, onus on Japan to achieve compatibility with US systems/munitions.
Boeing F/A-18-E/F Super Hornet: Compatible with various existing systems/munitions, new aircraft type and long-term viability questionable given the possible future threats.
Dassault Rafale: Not a serious choice due to support and compatibility issues.
Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor: completely off the table, not an option.

That is in essence how I see things at present.

-Cheers

 

[Crusader2000]

I am honestly not sure. Japan seems to have painted itself into a corner somewhat, leaving it without any real good options. The two best options which come to mind are working to extend the service life of the F-4EF a few more years whilst seeing which nations might be willing to give up some early F-35 production slots. That or chosing to order F-15FX Eagles from Boeing, either as an outright replacement for the F-4EJ, or as an interim replacement while Japan works out a future F-35 order.

Of the six fighters Japan had been looking at for their F-X programme, I see it as follows in order of viability.
Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II: Best long-term option, possible short-term availability issue.
Boeing F-15FX Eagle: Some commonality with existing JASDF Eagles, questionable on long-term service viability due to possible emerging threats.
Eurofighter Typhoon: Modern 4.5-Gen design, onus on Japan to achieve compatibility with US systems/munitions.
Boeing F/A-18-E/F Super Hornet: Compatible with various existing systems/munitions, new aircraft type and long-term viability questionable given the possible future threats.
Dassault Rafale: Not a serious choice due to support and compatibility issues.
Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor: completely off the table, not an option.

That is in essence how I see things at present.

-Cheers

Well, your remarks are somewhat confusing in my book??? Are you stating that domestic production of the F-35 is unlikely. Yet, purchasing the F-35 directly is the only real option.....

 

[Todjaeger]

Well, your remarks are somewhat confusing in my book??? Are you stating that domestic production of the F-35 is unlikely. Yet, purchasing the F-35 directly is the only real option.....

This is getting a bit afield from just being about the F-35 JSF but...

In short, yes. Given the possible time crunch the JASDF might be facing with respect to their F-X programme, an F-4EJ fleet that the newest airframe is 28 years old, and the prospect that they need to start thinking about retiring some of the early F-15J Eagles which are approaching 30 years old...

I am not certain that Japan will have sufficient time to begin domestic production of the F-X fighter, whichever design is ultimately chosen.

Consider for instance the RAAF interim F/A-18F Super Hornet purchase. IIRC the decision was made in August 2008 to make an expedited order for 24 Superbugs to cover the impending retirement of the F-111 from RAAF service. The USN was willing to allow the RAAF order take a production run instead of waiting for the USN order to be completed. Also, while the F-18F is a whole new aircraft apart from the F-18A/B's already in RAAF, there is a high degree of commonality between the aircraft. Even with all that, IOC with the first 4 delivered aircraft is not expected until the end of 2010, and FOC is not expected until 2012 IIRC.

Any Japanese order that includes domestic production will need additional time to setup production or assembly lines. Given that the aircraft decision has been postponed until 2011, that all pushes the IOC and FOC dates out even further. At some point, a decision will have to be made at to which is more important, Japan having air defence fighters in service, or having them in domestic production.

-Cheers

 

[Crusader2000]

This is getting a bit afield from just being about the F-35 JSF but...

In short, yes. Given the possible time crunch the JASDF might be facing with respect to their F-X programme, an F-4EJ fleet that the newest airframe is 28 years old, and the prospect that they need to start thinking about retiring some of the early F-15J Eagles which are approaching 30 years old...

I am not certain that Japan will have sufficient time to begin domestic production of the F-X fighter, whichever design is ultimately chosen.

Consider for instance the RAAF interim F/A-18F Super Hornet purchase. IIRC the decision was made in August 2008 to make an expedited order for 24 Superbugs to cover the impending retirement of the F-111 from RAAF service. The USN was willing to allow the RAAF order take a production run instead of waiting for the USN order to be completed. Also, while the F-18F is a whole new aircraft apart from the F-18A/B's already in RAAF, there is a high degree of commonality between the aircraft. Even with all that, IOC with the first 4 delivered aircraft is not expected until the end of 2010, and FOC is not expected until 2012 IIRC.

Any Japanese order that includes domestic production will need additional time to setup production or assembly lines. Given that the aircraft decision has been postponed until 2011, that all pushes the IOC and FOC dates out even further. At some point, a decision will have to be made at to which is more important, Japan having air defence fighters in service, or having them in domestic production.

-Cheers

Well, maybe its time for Japan to forget about license production? Which, is not to say they couldn't at least get some Japanese Content. In whatever design they finally select.

Of course lets not forget that the JASDF currently operates ~ 250 F-4's and F-15's. (plus ~90 F-2's) So, its possible that Japan could get the first 100 off a foreign production line. To be followed by license production later down the road. (i.e. 200+)

Regardless, I think Japan will have to settle for a smaller Japanese Content than it has been willing to in the past........:?

 

[Vivendi]

Japan holds no cards

3)If she wants piece work then the opportunity exists - but she needs to make up her mind before Israel and SIngapore take whats left. First come, first served

There may be some pieces to pick up if they are fast:

South Korean companies could bid for work on the Lockheed Martin F-35 if the country orders the stealth fighter, even though suppliers for the airframe were chosen years ago, the U.S. manufacturer says.

As production builds up turning out one fighter a day, second-source suppliers will be needed for parts that Lockheed Martin itself is responsible for supplying, says Steve O’Bryan, vice president for F-35 business development.

Building F-35 parts to Lockheed Martin’s blueprints would give Korea Aerospace Industries manufacturing work but no opportunity to advance its fighter-design skills, which it might get from participation in Boeing’s proposed program to develop the F-15SE, an Eagle with less radar reflectivity.

Korean Air Aerospace, the manufacturing division of airline Korean Air, would presumably also be interested in helping to make the F-35.

Software work will be available for block 2 and 3 F-35s, says O’Bryan says. Those two upgrades to the aircraft will be based on software improvements, not physical changes.

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=aerospacedaily&id=news/KOREA102109.xml&headline=Lockheed Dangles F-35 Work For S. Korea

 

[Crusader2000]

There may be some pieces to pick up if they are fast:



http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=aerospacedaily&id=news/KOREA102109.xml&headline=Lockheed Dangles F-35 Work For S. Korea

Clearly, the Japanese would have similar opportunities as the Koreans.

 

[swerve]

...
Eurofighter Typhoon: Modern 4.5-Gen design, onus on Japan to achieve compatibility with US systems/munitions...

-Cheers

This baffles me. Typhoon is built by NATO countries, which all fit US munitions on it. It carries AIM-120 & AIM-9L, for example, & has done for a few years. Its datalink talks to NATO & USAF E-3s. The Saudis will operate theirs with the E-3. Etc. It was designed from the outset for compatibility with US systems & munitions.

The only compatibility problem I can think of is with the JASDF KC-767s, & that is certainly not insuperable.

 

[Crusader2000]

This baffles me. Typhoon is built by NATO countries, which all fit US munitions on it. It carries AIM-120 & AIM-9L, for example, & has done for a few years. Its datalink talks to NATO & USAF E-3s. The Saudis will operate theirs with the E-3. Etc. It was designed from the outset for compatibility with US systems & munitions.

The only compatibility problem I can think of is with the JASDF KC-767s, & that is certainly not insuperable.

Well, the only major threat that the Saudi have to content with is Iran. Which, its Typhoons would be more than a match for. Japan on the other hand will have to deal with Advance 5th Generation Types from China and Russia.

So, while the Typhoon would be a excellent choice "today". Its very likely would be outclassed in the near future.

 

[Onkel]

Japan on the other hand will have to deal with Advance 5th Generation Types from China and Russia.
So, while the Typhoon would be a excellent choice "today". Its very likely would be outclassed in the near future.

It may take 20 Years or more until we see "5. Generation Chinese or russian types" in action. Yet the chinese cannot compete with modern western planes and russia still upgrades old designs. That´s nothing a typhoon couldn´t handle.

 

[zeven]

Well, the only major threat that the Saudi have to content with is Iran. Which, its Typhoons would be more than a match for. Japan on the other hand will have to deal with Advance 5th Generation Types from China and Russia.

So, while the Typhoon would be a excellent choice "today". Its very likely would be outclassed in the near future.

SO according to you, only because a platform is labeled as a 5th gen. its automaticly superior to a platform labeled as 4.5 gen? first of all, Eurofighter will continue to be uppgraded threw its lifetime. and China have done nothing so far, that indicates an instant technology leap, when did China produce a state of the art platform? when did China ever shown the world a superiority in military technology? im tired to argue against the arguement: we call it 5th so therefor its better. I noreway were to manufacture their own platform starting today, would that be a 6th gen fighter when it enter service 20 years from now?
PPL put to much confidence in the generation scale when they talking about capability. the Eurofighter that flies today, can not be compared to the Eurofighter that will guard the skies in 2030. and according to moore's law the avionics and CPUs will be more or less 15 times better. And finally. no weaponplatform is better than their weaponsystem it carries. ( austrian eurofighters proves that.)

 

[swerve]

Well, the only major threat that the Saudi have to content with is Iran. Which, its Typhoons would be more than a match for. Japan on the other hand will have to deal with Advance 5th Generation Types from China and Russia.

So, while the Typhoon would be a excellent choice "today". Its very likely would be outclassed in the near future.

Do you realise that the above post is completely unrelated to the post it purported to be a reply to?

 

[Crusader2000]

It may take 20 Years or more until we see "5. Generation Chinese or russian types" in action. Yet the chinese cannot compete with modern western planes and russia still upgrades old designs. That´s nothing a typhoon couldn´t handle.

Even if the Japanese Purchase the Typhoon off shelf today. (i.e. very unlikely) It will still be several years before it entered service in any worth while numbers.


BTW Unless both the Russia and Chinese 5th Generation Designs turn out to be total failures. Its very unlikely that the Typhoon will be able to match there performance.