F-35 Multirole Joint Strike Fighter
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Scorpion82
New Member
So it was obviously not hindering AA-1 to fly. It caused delays in readying further airframes to join the test programme, however.
The time from AA-1 to BF-1 was 1.5 years... that delay would not have happened except for SWAT. The time to code the software and simulation has to happen in triplicate due to three versions. These were all started at program inception.
That fact is that with three airframes, the development time will increase vs one airframe, regardless of SWAT.
That fact is that with three airframes, the development time will increase vs one airframe, regardless of SWAT.
It doesn't matter what anyone says about the F-22 - It is UNAVAILABLE due to ITARs issues.
Quite frankly the media wouldn't know a fighter from a barstool
It is interesting though - the F35 just doesn't look the right plane for Japan, and the media there is well aware of it. I think the F35 will be a terrific aircraft, but it is not an air superiority aircraft - Japan needs something that can provide long term dominance off its coast.
I don't think it is totally impossible that Japan couldn't still end up with the F22. Japan's military and economic relationship with the US is legendary - they pretty much get whatever they ask for, this isn't a piddly little contract like Australia was, it is big bickies. It wouldn't shock me to see some sort of agreement where a varient of the F22 is built under license in Japan. I don't expect it will happen, but it is not out of the questions - when there is big money at stake, laws get changed easily.
I don't think it is totally impossible that Japan couldn't still end up with the F22. Japan's military and economic relationship with the US is legendary - they pretty much get whatever they ask for, this isn't a piddly little contract like Australia was, it is big bickies. It wouldn't shock me to see some sort of agreement where a varient of the F22 is built under license in Japan. I don't expect it will happen, but it is not out of the questions - when there is big money at stake, laws get changed easily.
I have actually been involved in ITARs negotiations. F-22 is ITARs caveated. The USG has no intention of changing their stance. It requires Congressional and State Dept imprimatur and both are not forthcoming..
This has got nothing to do with economics, ITARs is wrapped around security and technology release. The USG does not want to continue with F-22 and it sure as heck won;t be releasing that capability (with all the political and technical complications that would accompany it)
Its a non starter
A non starter that just keeps on, keeping on:
Senate panel seeks end to F-22 export ban | Politics | Reuters
I just don't think Japan is going to settle for the F35, and given the contract is potentially worth $2.3 billion dollars and jobs for the US economy, it is going to be interesting to see how this pans out.
Much as I would like to see the production line for the F-22 stay open, I have to agree with gf0012-aust on this one.
It's not merely a question of money, but also of time. The electronics on the F-35 were intended for export from day one - and are encrypted to prevent export recipients from learning too much about how the low-observable sensor suite works in concert with the low observable airframe. Information that could be exploited by an adversary if it were to become common knowledge.
The F-22, however, was never intended for the export market. Making its electronics suite export ready would require a huge investment - and at least another couple of years to develop. The study below describes some of the concerns and requirements that would plague just such an export version of the Raptor.
https://research.maxwell.af.mil/papers/ay2000/saas/molloy.pdf
By the time that an-export ready version became available, the F-22 production line would already have grown cold. The cost of restarting a production line like this would be prohibitive. Every process from start to finish would have to be re-certified, and any tooling that had been scrapped would have to be replaced and the production process re-calibrated. Once the money ends for purchasing long-lead time hardware at the end of FY 2009, the production tooling will begin to be dismantled.
I do agree that the F-22 would have been a great asset for Japan (and others). But this ship has already sailed.
It's not merely a question of money, but also of time. The electronics on the F-35 were intended for export from day one - and are encrypted to prevent export recipients from learning too much about how the low-observable sensor suite works in concert with the low observable airframe. Information that could be exploited by an adversary if it were to become common knowledge.
The F-22, however, was never intended for the export market. Making its electronics suite export ready would require a huge investment - and at least another couple of years to develop. The study below describes some of the concerns and requirements that would plague just such an export version of the Raptor.
https://research.maxwell.af.mil/papers/ay2000/saas/molloy.pdf
By the time that an-export ready version became available, the F-22 production line would already have grown cold. The cost of restarting a production line like this would be prohibitive. Every process from start to finish would have to be re-certified, and any tooling that had been scrapped would have to be replaced and the production process re-calibrated. Once the money ends for purchasing long-lead time hardware at the end of FY 2009, the production tooling will begin to be dismantled.
I do agree that the F-22 would have been a great asset for Japan (and others). But this ship has already sailed.
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ITARs is a Congressional, State Dept and Executive issue. The Senate can talk as much as they like. It's called politicking
The jobs advantage for the US economy is much more significant for JSF where the tech impacts upon far more other systems integration and spinoff issues.
F-22 has zero impact at the opportunity level in comparison
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
I would not put too much importance on the wishes of this Senate panel. The article mentions that the panel would like the Air Force to begin developing an export version of the F-22. Given that there is no mention of the panel or Senate as a whole allotting funding for development of an export version, I see it as being a non-starter. Particularly since the SecDef Gates has indicated that no additional orders for F-22s will be placed or desired. In essence, the only reason to develope an export version is so that LockMart can get foreign sales of the Raptor and to keep at least some of the Raptor lines open.
I do not see that of being sufficiently valuable to the Air Force, certainly not enough for them to devote the required resources given the current budgetary pressures. The article also failed to mention that it would still require an act of Congress to remove the prohibition on spending government money for foreign sales of the Raptor. Depending on how one reads the law, it could even be considered that the Air Force cannot engage in the development the panel wants until the prohibition is repealed.
While the issue might keep cropping up, there are a series of real and significant financial, technical and political hurdles which need to be overcome. Those who keep raising the F-22 export issue seem to either gloss over, or be ignorant of what is required to be able to export. IMO, these hurdles are significant enough that, given the practical time limit on placing additional F-22 orders, means there will be no movement towards F-22 exports of any sort.
-Cheers
To add. They cannot even discuss the technology issues - its a Federal offence with the requisite penal charges that can be attached.
USAF and/or any commercial entitiy cannot discuss elements of the tech without State Dept imprimatur. State gets their authority from the Executive. The Executive is bound by Congress.
ITARS is a Congressional issue.
The Senate therefore can also talk about putting a man on venus and sell Aegis systems to little men on Alpha Centauri.
In the scheme of things its political colour and movement and in absolute terms a WOFTAM
The F-35 will be a better air superiority fighter in real terms than anything forseable that Japan could aquire or build.
You either get last of the line upgraded F-15 or you get F-35 or both. The F-22 is done to death, and regarding the multiple issues it has from an aquistion and operational POV. Even the US isn't getting anymore and its gone the way of the SR-71 which the world has moved on from (even if they never topped its speed record).
If they really want to do something special, design and make their own missiles and drones.
You either get last of the line upgraded F-15 or you get F-35 or both. The F-22 is done to death, and regarding the multiple issues it has from an aquistion and operational POV. Even the US isn't getting anymore and its gone the way of the SR-71 which the world has moved on from (even if they never topped its speed record).
If they really want to do something special, design and make their own missiles and drones.
Maybe if Japan wants an Air Superiority fighter bad enough, they will accelerate some of the Block 5 hardware (like DIRCM and 6+ internal AAMs), work with LM on a QWIP (Quantum Well Infrared Photo Detector) upgrade to EOTS, and throw some money at speeding up JDRADM.
IMHO, that would be money better spent.
IMHO, that would be money better spent.
why would anyone want to go with the F-22 when its development path is already buggered?
It has multiple block development issues, some of those Blocks cannot be upgraded - so even the US has a limited set of late generation Block variants.
To get around that issue means further development work - and its not just an issue of upgrading hardware - its an issue of dealing with some baseline development problems.
the JSF has none of those impediments - and one of the very clear lessons learnt by the JSF dev-team was future support development.
At a systems level, the JSF will be superior by a golden mile.
All this chat about how good the F-22 is for a given role ignores the brutal reality that its mission set and capability does not balance up against further development and that it is gated already.
this "woulda, coulda, shoulda" type argument really needs to be hit with the reality check of how a very good plane is delimited by its very own design flaws. Building more will not change that.
The USG is disinterested - the USAF has read the tealeaves as well. The US even if they had a change of heart is not going to let anyone go out and do a development when thats what they would have done if LM hadn't buggered it up in the first place - hence Lockmarts lessons learnt for JSF. hence USG/USAF's lessons learnt on keepin their eyes on the development ball.
The tenor and actions of the current US administration already show that they are prepared to and will be willing to stop programs and bring the industry to heel.
The jobs argument holds no ground - esp so when the future development opportunities lie with JSF
Finally, politically the USG wants to use JSF as an aviation variant of the USN's 1000 Ship Navy concept. F-22 does not in any way head them into that direction.
It has multiple block development issues, some of those Blocks cannot be upgraded - so even the US has a limited set of late generation Block variants.
To get around that issue means further development work - and its not just an issue of upgrading hardware - its an issue of dealing with some baseline development problems.
the JSF has none of those impediments - and one of the very clear lessons learnt by the JSF dev-team was future support development.
At a systems level, the JSF will be superior by a golden mile.
All this chat about how good the F-22 is for a given role ignores the brutal reality that its mission set and capability does not balance up against further development and that it is gated already.
this "woulda, coulda, shoulda" type argument really needs to be hit with the reality check of how a very good plane is delimited by its very own design flaws. Building more will not change that.
The USG is disinterested - the USAF has read the tealeaves as well. The US even if they had a change of heart is not going to let anyone go out and do a development when thats what they would have done if LM hadn't buggered it up in the first place - hence Lockmarts lessons learnt for JSF. hence USG/USAF's lessons learnt on keepin their eyes on the development ball.
The tenor and actions of the current US administration already show that they are prepared to and will be willing to stop programs and bring the industry to heel.
The jobs argument holds no ground - esp so when the future development opportunities lie with JSF
Finally, politically the USG wants to use JSF as an aviation variant of the USN's 1000 Ship Navy concept. F-22 does not in any way head them into that direction.
weasel1962
New Member
Re:
If you're the same SpudmanWP on f-16.net, I'd like to take the opportunity to offer my thanks for the program docs you have been putting up on that forum regarding the F-35.
I agree with you - that would be the smartest move I think. I'm not sure what Japan is going to do though, I think there is some backlash there at the moment at the feeling they are having the F35 "rammed" down their throats.
They want other options, it appears they are pushing for F22 (as the media is reporting). Perhaps they might also consider some new varient of F15, or even another country aircraft (hard to imagine that though, given Japan's ties to US in aviation and military)?. In the past, Japan has always got the best from the US (e.g. AEGIS crusiers, etc.), and there is perception the F35 may not be the best for their needs. With some design modification perhaps that can be overcome?
Crusader2000
Banned Member
Clearly, the F-22 is off the table. As the US Government has finally put the last nail in the coffin. (i.e. no more funding) So, Japan would be wise to quit wasting time and just move forward with the F-35. Which, will be more than capable enough to counter any likely threat to Japan for decades to come.
As a matter of fact. This is the time to make a deal! As the US is pushing for orders and is more likely to compromise.
As a matter of fact. This is the time to make a deal! As the US is pushing for orders and is more likely to compromise.
But as you keep being told, but apparently don't understand, the F-35 can't be delivered for a long time. And then there is the uncertain price . . . .
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