To look to the future it is sometimes good to consider the past. My views are in the context of what should/could be done and not read in the context of what would/will be done. I hope that is understood. :devil
In the early 90's the numbers of our RNZAF fixed wing aircraft was somewhat larger. There were the 5 C-130H's and of course back then we were still flying 10 Andovers for tactical transport (though only 4 by 1998). There was also the 3 Cessna 421 Golden Eagle VIP/Trainers which were later replaced by the B200's. We also had the six Orions and they were backed up by 3 Friendships which took on both Coastal fisheries patrol duties as well as wider aircrew training. There was also the 3 Boeing 727's. In those days we kept in the air 20 A-4's and 16 Strikemasters aloft.
Thus in 1990 we possessed 30 fixed wing multi-engine aircraft;
Transport
5 x C-130H, 10 x C.1 Andover, 3 Golden Eagle and the 3 Boeings. Some 21 fixed wing aircraft.
Maritime
6 x P-3, 3 x Friendship.
By 1998 it was reduced to 21;
Transport
5 x C-130H, 4 x C.1 Andover, 4 x B200, 2 x Boeings. Thus 15 Transport Aircraft.
Maritime
6 x P-3.
Today in 2009 we are down to 17 fixed wing multi-engine aircraft;
Transport
5 x C-130, 4 x B200, 2 x Boeing 757 (11 Transport)
Maritime
6 x P-3 (6 Maritime)
So in many respects we have basically lost the Andover and Friendship capability. After the Friendships and most of the Andovers went in the early/mid 1990's the 4 remaining Andovers did a number of roles. Multi-Engine training, Tactical Lift, VIP, and Coastal Patrol. When the Andovers went in the late 1990's and were not replaced this placed more stress on the aging C-130H's and the Orions.
So in many respects the operational loss of the four Andovers is possibly just as greater a loss and degradation to the RNZAF as were the A-4's and the MB339's.
In my opinion before we settle on any of the medium term or long term replacement platforms for the C-130-H and the Orion, I would like to see the Governemnt get this missing Andover/Friendship capability back. Back in 1990 we had 13 aircraft covering the spread of roles. By 1998 we had four. It would seem that at a minimum 4-6 smaller "Andover/B200" quick change multi-mission aircraft for light tactical transport, VIP, basic Coastal Patrol, and multi-engine training are essential. Whether the platform is a C27J or CASA 235, a used ex commercial or leased Saab 2000 or Q300 quick change as long as this capability platform is returned. This along with increasing the A109LUH fleet to a minimum of 8 aircraft are the immediate short term replacement needs (Up to 10 for the medium term and possibly further numbers when the Seasprite replacement and further NH-90's are considered.)
If we are looking at the medium term post 2020 and really making the the NZDF contribution to the ANZAC Airlift wing concept work, then a 4 x C130J / 2 x C17A mix would be ideal. I would be happy with 6 x C130J's and around 4 C27's (shared power plant) in any case as long as their is no degradation of capability. Perfect world not really, more pragmatism and orthodoxy in my view. The perfect world would be 18 F/A-18E's
If I was to consider what the NZDF transport / maritime aircraft fleet eventually should look like in 15 years (2024) after a all types have been acquired and settled in, I would say a mix of 2 x C17A, 2 x B757, 4 x C130J, 3-4 C27J (note powerplant synergies) covering broadly transport duties and 2 x P8 and 4 x Global Hawk (Or GA Avenger which would offer strike capability with A/shp the next development) as part of an ANZAC BAMS component with a further 4 x C27 in maritime configuration broadly covering the EEZ patrol requirements.
In 1990 we operated 6 different types of fixed wing multi-engined aircraft. In 1998 that was down to 5. Currently in 2009 we operate four. I believe the RNZAF in the context of an ANZAC airlift wing and BAMS wing in partnership with the RAAF and the level of integration, matinence centralisation and economies of scale savings involved, we would be able to operationally cope with a mix of the C17, P-8, C130J, C27J, Global Hawk (GA Avenger) and B757 in the medium future as well. The only odd ball at that stage would be a then aging B757 (produced 89/90) which would be replaced ideally with a 737 platform (per P-8 and BBJ that the RAAF use) around mid the 2020's. We need to keep in mind that C17A's deep matinence is US based, C27J and C130J share a power plant and other systems, Air NZ CHC / Safe Air have for years handled commercial and large military aircraft servicing projects from Q300's up to 747-400's in the South Island.