Future of Russian Military

[Wall83]

Acourding to this article 70% of the russian MiG-29 fighter could be to old and not be able to perform combat duty. The MiG fleet was grounded for several mounth after two crashes in late 2008.
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20090204/119984853.html

 

[Feanor]

I already started a thread in the aviation forum. This is indeed a major crisis.

 

[Firn]

Do you know how the financial situation of the Russian armed forces changed in the last 10 years? Is there a decent and halfaway correct estimation about that?

 

[nevidimka]

I think the future of Russian military modernization and ambitions is not good. The economy is in a bad shape due to the crisis and the reserves are drying up quick. Those grandiose projects don't seem likely to happen now. I doubt the carrier project can happen. Plus Putin planned a lot of grand projects like building a new space port in the far east region to replace Baikonur etc2. All these needs money. Lots of money.

 

[Feanor]

Do you know how the financial situation of the Russian armed forces changed in the last 10 years? Is there a decent and halfaway correct estimation about that?

It's been slowly improving over the last 5-6 years. However the current financial crisis puts that in question.

 

[nevidimka]

there was also a study that showed Russian economy at its peak during 2006-2007 was doing worse than the Soviet Economy. It showed that that Russian oil export revenue for the gov was like 65% of its export during that time, compared to like 40+% for the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union exported more market products, machinery, etc2. So Russian Economy based on this Oil export is not a good for its future.

I was wondering what happened to its machinery/market products that Soviet Union exported? Why such a decline?

 

[harryriedl]

there was also a study that showed Russian economy at its peak during 2006-2007 was doing worse than the Soviet Economy. It showed that that Russian oil export revenue for the gov was like 65% of its export during that time, compared to like 40+% for the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union exported more market products, machinery, etc2. So Russian Economy based on this Oil export is not a good for its future.

I was wondering what happened to its machinery/market products that Soviet Union exported? Why such a decline?

I think it had lots to do with the clients states which couldn't buy anything from other sources. it helped that it was cheap a decently made before 1989. It was also a side effect of the centrally planned model of economics.

 

[Feanor]

Not to mention many of those products were only marketable at all because their production was subsidized by oil and gas revenues. Overall the current Russian economy is doing worse then the Soviet one, but I don't know that the Soviet economy had any possibility of escaping a collapse.

 

[swerve]

And many products, not only from the USSR but also from other COMECON states, were exported at prices which did not reflect the cost of production, to get foreign currency. IIRC this was true of Praktica cameras. This was only sustainable by a system where an enterprise could be centrally allocated materials, & money for wages.

 

[nevidimka]

I think the soviet system could have escaped collapse, coz it had more options, ways, variables involved to make it survive compared to the more limited version of the current Russian economy. But bad political decisions ensured that it went towards collapse overdrive.

 

[Feanor]

And many products, not only from the USSR but also from other COMECON states, were exported at prices which did not reflect the cost of production, to get foreign currency. IIRC this was true of Praktica cameras. This was only sustainable by a system where an enterprise could be centrally allocated materials, & money for wages.

When you have no real market, the costs of production can be anything you say they are. So there is no way to even compare.

 

[swerve]

When you have no real market, the costs of production can be anything you say they are. .

True. But you can work out the inputs, in materials & labour, & assign costs to them. There are various ways to decide what costs are reasonable, & no definitive right answer, but as I recall, many export products were heavily subsidised however their costs were calculated. In some cases (e.g. some processed foods), the materials used in making them could have been sold for more than the price of the finished product.

So there is no way to even compare

Which means this is not quite true. It means that comparisons are very difficult, but not impossible.

 

[nevidimka]

Did the Soviet commerce heavily occur among the COMECON countries? How much did it engage in non Oil exports with other western or non COMECON countries?

There may also be another reason for its failure in marketing products after the break of SU. The poorer quality of eastern block products losing out its traditional markets once every communists country was opened up to more latest and modern western products entering the free market? So SU's finished products export took a big hit?

 

[kato]

There may also be another reason for its failure in marketing products after the break of SU.

Actually, most COMECON companies that weren't broken up in some way are still active and reasonably successful nowadays.

The Soviet industry was present in COMECON markets with electronic and engineering products, such as tractors, mining equipment, TVs, radios. However, COMECON countries often replaced Soviet products with local production across the board in the late 70s to mid 80s already.

Soviet equipment competed through ridiculously low prices. As an example, in the TV set market in East Germany, a Raduga would go at half the price of a locally produced Orion, whereas that again was at a reasonable 80-85% compared to an imported Sharp.

 

[Feanor]

True. But you can work out the inputs, in materials & labour, & assign costs to them. There are various ways to decide what costs are reasonable, & no definitive right answer, but as I recall, many export products were heavily subsidised however their costs were calculated. In some cases (e.g. some processed foods), the materials used in making them could have been sold for more than the price of the finished product.

Domestic market? Or foreign market? Foreign market, maybe. Domestic... unlikely.

Which means this is not quite true. It means that comparisons are very difficult, but not impossible.

I'll accept that correction. Very difficult it is.

 

[swerve]

Domestic market? Or foreign market? Foreign market, maybe. Domestic... unlikely.

Foreign market. Domestic market only after market prices started to apply, & of course, enterprises then either closed down or adapted fairly quickly.

 

[Feanor]

What I meant was, take an isolated domestic market. Prices are fixed, but there still is an equilibirum price, the prices just aren't fixed at it. In that case the domestic market price of a good would practically always be higher then it's components separately.

 

[nevidimka]

Actually, most COMECON companies that weren't broken up in some way are still active and reasonably successful nowadays.

The Soviet industry was present in COMECON markets with electronic and engineering products, such as tractors, mining equipment, TVs, radios. However, COMECON countries often replaced Soviet products with local production across the board in the late 70s to mid 80s already.

Soviet equipment competed through ridiculously low prices. As an example, in the TV set market in East Germany, a Raduga would go at half the price of a locally produced Orion, whereas that again was at a reasonable 80-85% compared to an imported Sharp.

Pardon my asking. Did you live in the former East Germany? How was Soviet Products compared to western ones back then, other than being cheap?

If the former companies that produced SU's finished export products are still aroudn doing good, why is then that their export contribution to Russia has diminished? And what is Russia doing to correct this imbalance in exports? It cant depend on oil forever to fund its military ambitions.

 

[Feanor]

So the Russian military plans to buy out remaining factory stocks from all the manufacturers.

http://lenta.ru/news/2009/02/11/new/

And plans to renew the armed forces equipment by around 50% by 2016. Also many ships that have been permanently docked awaiting repair for years are due to being repairs soon

http://lenta.ru/articles/2009/02/11/airforce/

Finally this one is about aviation reform. There will be three main air commands that are regional, and one strategic air command. Air rgts and squadrons will be turned into airbases, which I recall earlier reading will have 3 squadrons each (36 airplanes). GBAD will be reformed into air-defense brigades. Both of these types of formations will be under direct command of the operational commands.

Talks a little about the proposed Il-112B medium transport airplane, and modernizing existing aircraft in particular a new radar for the MiG-31. It's unclear whether he means the BM program or something else. Ka-52 are due to start deliveries this year, the Mi-28N first delivered last august (Torzhok, 4 of them in a training unit) is also planned.

Total defense procurement funding is at 4 trillion rubles for the next 3 years.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Pardon my asking. Did you live in the former East Germany? How was Soviet Products compared to western ones back then, other than being cheap?

I'd have to say that my experience re ex-warpac efficiency doesn't have the same degree of positivity.

I was involved with an assessment team to look at Poland (which was regarded as the most efficient and technically proficient of the warpac countries (in our opinion). This was a few years after poland managed to extricate itself from the communist model. It was also at their governments invitation as they were keen to offload state based assets to western companies and to try and inject some modernity into not only production but management principles. There were undoubtedly some clear shining examples of technical proficiency, but the management by the state clealy was an embuggerance. their worth in real terms was overvalued by the state. Poland and Czechoslovakia were probably the two performing ex warpac countries - but "east" germany was not in the same league.

As an example, before returning to mil industry, my company needed to get some hi-tech solutions done, even though we could get German Govt assistance to set up in eastern germany, it was still better for us to get things done in poland. cultural differences between east/west germany as well as poland were noticeable.