You have no argument from me. No pointers, no news, no information whatsoever on the PAK-FA. Is it secrecy or the fact that nothing is happening?
Who is gonna make the 5-gen fighter first?
- Thread starter ghost
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You have no argument from me. No pointers, no news, no information whatsoever on the PAK-FA. Is it secrecy or the fact that nothing is happening?
Secrecy. I doubt that nothing is happening. Though I suspect that what is happening is not nearly as much as some people think.You have no argument from me. No pointers, no news, no information whatsoever on the PAK-FA. Is it secrecy or the fact that nothing is happening?
ReAl PrOeLiTeZ
New Member
China has WS-10A for their J-11B/S and WS-10B is well underway, as a candidate for the next generation fighter. The WS-10A is already certified and in small production, check the main military Chinese articles, for references. And also their are developing large thrusted turbofan for commerical sector for large transporters. So from my view, Chinese are giving me the impression of technology acceleration, in these past years.
Russians have technology experience but just lack sufficient budget, they have enough but not enough to run multiple programs. Their export flankers are more numerous then what they have in their inventory. And the MKI/MKK being previously more superior then their own versions. But Su-34/35 have proven themselves, to be worthy and the superior flanker variants. Pilot training is still in issue with most pilots recieveing less than 100 hours. Or thats what Russians forums say.
The VVS has two types of units. High readyness and low readyness. High readyness reportedly receive 100 or so hours. Low readyness, are most likely much much lower. Average flight hours have risen, so I'm guessing more and more units are being converted to high readyness. In a limited conflict the units used will likely all be high readyness. In a large scale conflict is where the difference will start to come out.
The WS10A that is currently in low production is probobly so because of the continuing learning curve. And I give the Chinese credit for having the tenacity to build their own engines.
However, it has taken them many years and they have had to overcome tremendous obstacles just to get to this point. Much technology has been stolen from the Russians and help from the Israelies didn't hurt either.
The engine is on par with the F-16. Now after all that, do you really believe they will have their own 5th generation engines in 5 years? 10? 15? How about avionics, radar, stealth? Which are leaps and bounds ahead by the US.
No, it ain't gonna happen anytime soon. They may do like the Russians and give it a paint job, and call it stealth, or make a powerful radar and call it 5th generation, but they do not have, and will not be able to develop a fifth generation for many years to come.
Eventually there will be an air battle involving the best of the best. Then the the same old excuses from the Russians and now the Chinese will be made.
the road runner
Active Member
Found an interesting article on Russia and problems they face in fielding a fifth generation fighter.(2 pages)
http://www.upi.com/Security_Industr...of_a_fifth-generation_jet/UPI-35761231951126/
Russia seem to be playing catch up on engines/avionics/composites and with finance an issue, it seems that the JSF Partner nations are in a very strong position to have a 5th generation aircraft flying before Russia.
http://www.upi.com/Security_Industr...of_a_fifth-generation_jet/UPI-35761231951126/
Russia seem to be playing catch up on engines/avionics/composites and with finance an issue, it seems that the JSF Partner nations are in a very strong position to have a 5th generation aircraft flying before Russia.
"western" guys always wrote that RuAF and their programms sucks, Ru guys always right that everrything is ok and we can kick anyones asses =)))) doubt whom to believe
But right now situation with finances un RuArmy is much better then even 3-5 years ago. And there is a big chance that PAK-FA will be ready in 2015. This year will show does we have working PAK-FA or no.
But right now situation with finances un RuArmy is much better then even 3-5 years ago. And there is a big chance that PAK-FA will be ready in 2015. This year will show does we have working PAK-FA or no.
PeterCrisp
Member
I know I may be completely wrong here but isn't this all just down to money? Both Russia and Europe are capable of building Aircraft just as capable as the US but don't see a need at present so spend the money on other things. If 5th Gen Aircraft were the magic bullet that some people claim then surely funds would be found (maybe in Europe an even larger grouping of nations to spread cost) to design and build them.
Yes, it would take time and we would be behind the US but we have some great designers who could work out just why the F22 is so special and match it. If they had to I still feel the Russian designers could come up with some pretty special stuff to compete with anyone in the world.
Yes, it would take time and we would be behind the US but we have some great designers who could work out just why the F22 is so special and match it. If they had to I still feel the Russian designers could come up with some pretty special stuff to compete with anyone in the world.
Money is always an issue, even in good times. Its a matter of priorities for many countries. Governments never have all the money they wish they did. When the way of life is not threatened, and most of the world is at peace, governments see reducing military spending as both popular and economically expedient. And so it is with new 5th generation aircraft.
However, it also comes down to who has the industrial base and capability to produce 5th generation aircraft. Some countries have some capabilities and others more. The US has all of the capabilities and has used them. Yet money and the production of sufficient quantities are still in question.
The industrial base can never be discounted as a nations capability to produce state of the art equipment is what makes cutting edge technology.
Ozzy Blizzard
New Member
Look at the funds, experience and resources the US had to play with developing the F-22A. It took them 15 years. If the Russians or Chinese want something comparable its likely to take at least that long (probably longer). I seriously, seriously doubt teh PAK-FA will be ready by 2015.
US paid a 1 million $ for developing special pen which can write in space. Russians used and now are using pencils for this. The reasult is equal but 1 m$=)
I am not saying that it is always in such way but this is an example.
Also making something in RU is much cheaper then in US. Also you underestimate Ru science - I am not saying that it is best in the world but it is much more capable then you think, it just need enough money - enough not in US meaning but in RU meaning (there is a difference in the price)
I am not saying that it is always in such way but this is an example.
Also making something in RU is much cheaper then in US. Also you underestimate Ru science - I am not saying that it is best in the world but it is much more capable then you think, it just need enough money - enough not in US meaning but in RU meaning (there is a difference in the price)
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
Actually, I think your number for the F-22 development time is off a little. The aircraft now known as the F-22A Raptor started out as the ATF (Advanced Tactical Fighter). The was first funded by Congress in 1985, given that F-22 reached IOC in 2006 IIRC then the programme was more like 20 years to develop the Raptor.
As for Russia being able to develop a 5th generation fighter... IMO yes, they can. Would it likely be as capable as a US fighter? IMO, no, at least not currently or in the near future.
I base that opinion off a number of factors listed in no particular order.
1. Economic resources: While money is the end all be all, the more resources available typically the more things which can be done.
2. Corporate knowledge/continous development: Even following the peace "dividend" following the end of the Cold War and fall of the Iron Curtain, the US able to continue development and testing programmes. In doing so, a measure of collective knowledge was able to be retained, Russia does not seem to have been in the same position for a period of time.
3. Flow-on development from non-military applications: The US has burgeoning civilian markets for electronics, composites, all manner of things in fact. This civilian market has spurred inovations leading to smaller, lighter eletronic devices, more powerful computers, lighter and stronger plastics, etc. All of these developments in turn contribute to the available knowledge bases used to design and manufacture military devices and components. Under the Soviet system, there was not an equally active civilian consumer market to either fund or spur such inovations. Also, given the economic issues Russia had after the Soviet Union broke up, as well as the ready availability via import of desired commodities, I would guesstimate that Russia is still in the process of developing civilian sector manufacturing.
A has been mentioned over and over again, it is not so platform specific, as a system vs. system response. The current and upcoming US 5th generation platforms have definate places with the US response system, and that having different, complimentary components working together the entire system is able to achieve effects.
Russia, which does not seem to have the same level of ability to operate together using disparate but complimentary components, would therefore not likely be able to achieve the same effect using a similar 5th gen platform. Given time (and sufficient resources) I expect Russia would be able to develop or build the supporting and interoperating capabilities as well as develop the required doctrine to employ them. But it would take time.
-Cheers
Haavarla
Active Member
How many times have the computer power/speed been quadrupled since 1985?
With the sheer computer power of today in the millitary R&D sectors does save both time and funding, yes?
If so, the total timeline of developing an aircraft like the PAK-FA should likely/logical be compressed a bit comparing with the F-22A program on this isue alone?
I know there are funding, resources and workforce isue in here too, but who says Sukhoi HAVE to produce the the same amount units and output rate as USA do with the F-22/F-35 programs..
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Todjaeger
Potstirrer
I do not think changes in computing power would improve the time needed to design an advanced aircraft. If anything, as computing power has increased (and thus complexity of avionics) the design/redesign process has taken longer. Consider Moore's Law, the computing power available when it was coined relative to the average aircraft design time to the computing power available now and relative aircraft design time...
The areas where increased computing power might improve the design process is in areas where computer modeling is relevant and useful... Things like pole testing to determine RCS, modeling to replace wind tunnel tests, etc.
However, as the computing power has increased, there are (at least with many US systems) design changes which occur, often repeatedly. Sometimes this is in response to a change in the threat matrix, sometimes due to mission creap, and still other times it is because of technological improvements which came out during the design phase. Then, each of the various systems and subsystems need to be integrated to work together (or at least, not against each other) and then software needs to be written to due so. Each time a component changes, there is a software change which in turn needs to be written, tested, etc.
Unless Russia specifies a set of aircraft requirements and then does not deviate from them or the equipment selected to fulfil the requirement once it has been chosen, I would not expect the fact that more powerful computers are available currently would benefit Russia. The other thing to keep in mind, is that if Russia does not modify or tweek the design as it progresses, then the PAK-FA would not as advanced an aircraft as it could be.
-Cheers
During the Clinton administration purchase of new or replacement fighters was dropped as a "peace dividend", so there was at least an eight year delay due to that.
as far as computors, Russia does not have the industrial base for top end computors and must buy from the outside. As an example the AESA radar requires a special chip(MMICS) (made originally in the US) that was only recently been made available to the outside world. Russia does not have the capability to produce the chip.
I'm sure their are many other "secret" computor technologies that the Russians don't have and cannot get as well.
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Russia already bought all needed equipment from west and east, more then that Russia has started to make it's own microchips (they are too large comparing to US but they are enough small to be capable, technological process as I heard was something like 500-400 nm). You can say that they are "huge" and you are right but at least they are homemade and enough small. Ru AESA such as Juk-A and new BARS (I mean the new radar on the base of Bars for PAK-FA) are fully homemade.
About this chips MMICS, I've read some materials on AESA radars and there is said (in each material) that ideology of AESA in RU and US are DIFFERENT! So they could be compared only in real training =) but not by comparing their characteristics
About the ammount, plans are to build at least 300 PAK-FA and if there will be a possibility up to 600. For US I think it is not so high number but for Ru nowadays it is very big number (I mean 300)
About this chips MMICS, I've read some materials on AESA radars and there is said (in each material) that ideology of AESA in RU and US are DIFFERENT! So they could be compared only in real training =) but not by comparing their characteristics
About the ammount, plans are to build at least 300 PAK-FA and if there will be a possibility up to 600. For US I think it is not so high number but for Ru nowadays it is very big number (I mean 300)
300-600? Really? The reforms plan on transitioning the VVS back to a 3-squadron regiment (airbase) structure. So 24-49 squadrons? At 8-16 airbases? Very grandiose plans indeed. Considering that this year the VVS will be receving 10 modernized Su-25s and 10 modernized SMTs (it's not even clear whether these are from the Algerian batch, or a domestic order for MiG, possibly the first in a long time).
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
The Gripen, Strike Eagle and Super Hornet are all still 4th gen (or 4.5 gen for SHornet Block II's) aircraft. Incidentally, the Super Hornet itself is a different aircraft from the legacy Hornets in terms of components, etc.
The F-22 is the 1st 5th gen aircraft, with the F-35 most likely being the 2nd 5th gen aircraft out.
-Cheers