Hypothetical mobilization capabilities of the major powers

proelite

New Member
Suppose there WWIII happens for some god knows awful reason in 2010, or the very close future. The man combatants will be SCO vs NATO. No Nukes would be involved. It's as if God created a team skirmish game with super weapons off.

How would the powers of the world mobilize for such a grandeur conflict? How many men would they draft, what would they do immediately in order to establish an enduring long term strategy for what might be a long and drawn out war lasting perhaps 5-8 years. What would you do as the leaders of the respective fighting nations, aka USA, EU, Russia, China, India, etc, to ensure both short term and long term success.

It's a not a discussion about the possibility of the war, but only of the technicalities of the mobilization of each of the major fighting powers.
 

riksavage

Banned Member
This is a very unrealistic scenario - taking out the nuclear option is just not an issue if you are talking about WWIII involving the major powers.

Also there are a huge amount contributing factors, one being the geographical location of conflagration. There are countries like India and China who can mobilize huge standing armies, but they are hampered by a lack of strategic lift and logistical prowess beyond their immediate borders, no point mobilizing a million reserves if you can't get them to the front line because you are separated by hundreds of miles of open sea with no credible means of sustaining a logistics tail?

If you look at the CIA world factbook you can clearly see male / female military age populations eligible for call-up, two examples provided are:

USA
Males age 16-49: 72,715,332
Females age 16-49: 71,638,785 (2008 est.)

Peoples Republic of China
males age 16-49: 375,009,345
females age 16-49: 354,314,328 (2008 est.)

If the conflict breaks out right on your border then human resources can be called-up and feed into battle (light infantry at least) relatively early on (PRC's support of North Korea in the 1950's for example). WWI provides an excellent case-study of how mobilization times of large numbers of reserves impacted upon the outcome of the war. The Russians ability to mobilize their forces in the East and move them West by road/rail faster than Germany initially anticipated in 1914 greatly influenced the reduction of divisions allocated to the Schlieffen Plan - the result being the German failure to capture or surround Paris leading to years of costly trench warfare.

If you take nuclear weapons out of the picture and assume one or the other side is unable to strike a strategic blow the war will be driven by economics. Basically which powers are able to turn peacetime economies into war time producers of decisive weapons, which in the hands of proficient operatives become battle winners. Here the West has a huge advantage in modern and efficient heavy / light industry and chemicals production (Europe, Japan and the USA). Germany to this day (for example) remains the number one manufacturer of machine tools (needed to machine propeller shafts, aircraft parts etc.) and chemicals (BASF - Explosive components), combine that with the rest of the Wests manufacturing capability and know-how and you will see factories turn from making high-tech farm machinery in to high tech AFV's in a relatively short period of time. Mobilizing large numbers of troops does not have the same impact today as it used to, numbers alone don't win wars unless you are facing an enemy who is armed with exactly the same level of technology allowing the conflict to turn into a war of attrition.

At the height of the Cold War the Warsaw Pact knew their combined economies could not sustain a prolonged war against the West. They needed to go for an early knockout blow and defeat NATO in Europe and hopefully cut-off any reinforcements / material coming in from the US via the UK. The West countered this with better technology and tactical nuclear weapons, coupled with the ever present threat of mutually assured destruction (MAD).

As Bill Clinton once said 'it's the economy stupid'
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I would say that it would not get to attrition. Attrition is a very low form of warfare. The target of opportunity in modern warfare is the enemies ability to communicate and coordinate, as well as their intel and recon assets. You want to reduce their C4ISR and thus render them helpless. Even in WWII the target of opportunity already moved away from enemy man power and towards the enemies logistics. Hence why large tank pincers, that encircled huge clusters of troops. To get to attrition warfare we have to look at WWI and older conflicts (like the American Civil War where many of the battles were classic attrition). Give the pace, intensity, and delivery capabilities not so much in sheer payload, but in accuracy and range, I don't believe a war between modern powers will turn into attrition.
 

SkolZkiy

New Member
I think there is no hope that WWIII could happen withou nukes - at least tactical nukes would be used if it happens. I can't see another way to stop Something like Chineese huge number of infantry. more then this - a don't think that when loosing the red-button will stay untouched.
 

proelite

New Member
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I think there is no hope that WWIII could happen withou nukes - at least tactical nukes would be used if it happens. I can't see another way to stop Something like Chineese huge number of infantry. more then this - a don't think that when loosing the red-button will stay untouched.
Huge numbers of Chinese infantry is certainly not going to amount to much if they can't maintain local superiority against Western ground forces. Giant amounts of infantry easily fall prey to divide and conquer by more mobile units backed by air superiority. This shouldn't be hard to achieve as the Americans would have as many fighters/bombers in the air as they have carriers in the vicinity. The West would certainly not have more than several hundred aircraft in Chinese air at any time in the war.

If Russia, China, and India want to hold out against a western conventional invasion, they need have to have air superiority, which implies several jets of their jets against one of the enemies. Preferably as many fighter per enemy fighter as the number of AA missiles on the enemy fighter.

Russia is going to be the key technology exporter for the SCO. They need to share blueprints of their latest submarines, planes, tanks, etc to China asap. Next, they need recall all Eastern division and put them to defend the Western front. They need to put transfer most of their fleet to Vladivostok and Chinese harbors.

Russia needs to have at least 2-5 million troops on the Western borders within the second year, and hopefully 10 million in the near future.

China needs to mobilize its massive manpower, not to be cannon fodder, but to manufacture fighter planes, destroyers, and submarines for use by Russia and China. LOTs of planes and submarines. Tens of thousands of aircrafts and a few hundred submarines should be the yearly goal.

A militia of 100 million would be raised and used to provide the pool for which the elite reactionary defense divisions would continuously draw recruits from. This system should counteract the high casualty rates expected for such divisions.

India, Pakistan, and other SCO region powers should follow the same pattern as China, but unlike Russia and China, their only goal is to bog down the Allies while Russia and China recover enough to take on the offensive.

Oh yeah, the Korea's should be bum rushed by Russian, and Chinese infantry asap.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Proelite I'm getting the feeling that this entire discussion is proceeding on a childish level. The SOC (it's ШОС in Russian so I'm assuming that this is the right translation) does not have even basic interoperability. Never mind acting as a real military block in case of all out war.

If you really want to talk about mobilization potential, look at the mobilization systems actually in place. I don't know much about the India or Chinese one, but at least currently ours is based around cadre units and storage bases that have skeleton crews of professional officers, and a few soldiers, and after mobilization are filled up with reservists. They all have the necessary equipment to start operating almost immediately, and are occasionally brought out of reserve for large scale training exercises. The Stability-2008 exercise did this with a number of reserve formations and storage bases.
 

Sampanviking

Banned Member
Actually Feanor its a potentially very dangerous situation although highly unlikely to erupt into open conflict, as although the SCO countries wish to see the US/NATO withdraw from Central Asia, the underlying aim (stability first) is to do it in a Peaceful fashion.

The SCO is not a Military Alliance, but a Regional security/stability organisation that persues its aims through ecomic development and interdependance, with a Military Dimension added to provide hard edged security, in order to achieve wider Stability.

If Conflict were to erupt it would be centered around Afghanistan and spread to the Black Sea very quickly. It would undoubtedly also involve the current Candidate members of Iran and Pakistan.

For NATO it would be a problem of total encirclement; not only on land, but also it would now appear, at Sea. I say this as we now have both Russian and Chinese warships patrolling in the Sea of Aden, close to the Persian Gulf and I do wonder if this is the beginnings of a permenant SCO Navel presence in the region and whether or not Port Facilites at Gwadar and maybe Iran and even Sudan will be made available to them?

I know somebody mentioned Airlift capability earlier. I would just remind them that this is largely an American requirement as they need to cross Oceans to reach conflict zones. The SCO countries are simply crossign their collective borders and can do this with their increasingly complex and modern Road and Rail Network.

Would it turn Nuclear? not at that point no, not even Rumsfeld would be dumb enough to initiate an exchange over Khandahar or some such, but the threat of Nukes would no doubt define the limits and borders of the conflict and therefore help to achieve the endgame.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Again the SOC is not a single military entity in any sense of the word. There is no reason to think that they will fight together, especially given conflicting Russo-Chinese interests in Central Asia. The common take that the SOC is something like the former WarPac is completely wrong. It's a loose regional security alliance that has yet to demonstrate anything more then talk and occasional demonstratory joint exercises.
 

Chrom

New Member
If you take nuclear weapons out of the picture and assume one or the other side is unable to strike a strategic blow the war will be driven by economics. Basically which powers are able to turn peacetime economies into war time producers of decisive weapons, which in the hands of proficient operatives become battle winners. Here the West has a huge advantage in modern and efficient heavy / light industry and chemicals production (Europe, Japan and the USA). Germany to this day (for example) remains the number one manufacturer of machine tools (needed to machine propeller shafts, aircraft parts etc.) and chemicals (BASF - Explosive components), combine that with the rest of the Wests manufacturing capability and know-how and you will see factories turn from making high-tech farm machinery in to high tech AFV's in a relatively short period of time. Mobilizing large numbers of troops does not have the same impact today as it used to, numbers alone don't win wars unless you are facing an enemy who is armed with exactly the same level of technology allowing the conflict to turn into a war of attrition.
This is plain wrong. Right China have more industrial power than any other country, in some key areas (steel production) - even more than all other world combined. That could allow China to bring more cheap "mobilization" weapons than any other country. (And yes, F-22 and Abrams are USELESS here as mobilization weapons!) Some here with f.e. chemicals - although Germany is world-leading in bringing and researching new chemicals - it have much less raw industrial power to produce cheap, disposable chemicals needed for simple all-around explosives used in most common bombs, shells, etc.

Of course, given few years, West will easely match China's industrial power in that areas. The only problem - we discuss mobilization here. I.e. timeframe is from months to 1-2 years at most. In that time China will have sizeable advantage.
At the height of the Cold War the Warsaw Pact knew their combined economies could not sustain a prolonged war against the West. They needed to go for an early knockout blow and defeat NATO in Europe and hopefully cut-off any reinforcements / material coming in from the US via the UK. The West countered this with better technology and tactical nuclear weapons, coupled with the ever present threat of mutually assured destruction (MAD).

As Bill Clinton once said 'it's the economy stupid'
This is also very one-sided view. Of course, in the very long run USSR couldnt hope to fully match West - after all, West had more human resources.
But in mobilization terms - i.e. 1-2 years at most - WP (USSR especially) had huge advantage in military industrial power. Huge. Most military and civilian factories were build and maintained with mobilization possibility in mind - and WP could relocate they production to military needs literally in several weeks.

Add to that much large stored strategic reserves (both in military equipment and raw resources) - and you will see why "Red Hordes" were nightmare for West.
 

Sampanviking

Banned Member
Again the SOC is not a single military entity in any sense of the word. There is no reason to think that they will fight together, especially given conflicting Russo-Chinese interests in Central Asia. The common take that the SOC is something like the former WarPac is completely wrong. It's a loose regional security alliance that has yet to demonstrate anything more then talk and occasional demonstratory joint exercises.
You are right the SCO is not a new form of WPact, it is something very different (as I stated in previous post) and actually far more durable than a mere Military Alliance. The SCO is about the development of Strategic Assets and then by extension the defence of them. The fact that these armies do not train and work together at NATO levels is I think overblown, the WW2 allies did not either, but they still managed to fight effectively alongside each other.

Chrom says

This is plain wrong. Right China have more industrial power than any other country, in some key areas (steel production) - even more than all other world combined. That could allow China to bring more cheap "mobilization" weapons than any other country. (And yes, F-22 and Abrams are USELESS here as mobilization weapons!)
Absolutely right and a critical point, which together with massive Strategic Depth, that seems to be forgotten and not understood, time and time again.

add also into the equation the economic muscle to make a military move and I think we have very substantial questions over NATO's current ability to respond to a real crisis.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
WWII allies were pushed together by necessity of a separate and highly aggressive military power that was threatening them in the most direct fashion. Only a case of global total war brought together the WWII allies, who otherwise (between the USSR and GB with USA) would have had nothing to do with each other. Are we suggesting that the USA will go on a worldwide conquest spree, that will force Russia and China into a unlikely embrace?
 

Ender

New Member
To be honest, no large country will fight another large country any time soon. There's no point! What does China have to gain from war with the U.S.? We buy their crap, they buy our bonds. I think we get the shorter end of the stick.

But for shits and giggles, what if we for the sake of arguement said there was a major war. I'll focus on the U.S., Russia, and China.

Say Russia got really pissed off about this East Europe missile shield, and decided to invade East Europe. Russia would probably being facing all of NATO, with probably minimal support. Being this outgunned, Russia's only chance would be to gain a major ally, such as China. However, why would China want to join Russia on a long bloody war? If China really wanted to join, they could join the NATO forces and come at Russia from behind, grabbing as much resources as they could along the way.

What if China attacked the U.S.? Well it really depends on how stealthfully they land. If they can get a large force on the U.S. mainland, then maybe they can do some work. However from a Navy v Navy, China trying to get the U.S. sort of idea, China's human numbers won't matter much and the U.S.' technology would be- I think- the deciding factor that would stop the Chinese from crossing the Pacific.

What if the U.S. attacked China? Well personally a land assault wouldn't be a good idea. The U.S.' best bet would be to gain air superiority (which could easily be done, China's airforce isn't that good). Then using air power, use the governments own structure of being centrally commanded. And attack the capital. Try to take out leaders at the top. If the upper leaders of the government in disarry or dead, then the rest of the country will be slow. Then if you want, you can make a ground assault, but only if the Chinese are in disarry. A ground assault would be hard to maintain, saying you would have to transport supplies across the Pacific.

You can also use the airforce to attack food supplies, which could do major damage if it could affect the Chinese army or populous. Also the airforce could strike military bases, and other areas of value.

Russia would probably take all of this as American Imperialism, and join to help China. If this would happen, the U.S. would need NATO to step in and attack Russia.

The biggest flaw to my plan is how much it centers on air superiority. Besides from that, I see this war as very unrealistic, but it would be WWIII.

If you're looking for another major war, wait for the Israeli-Iranian war. That ones coming, and its going to be gigantic.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
For NATO it would be a problem of total encirclement; not only on land, but also it would now appear, at Sea. I say this as we now have both Russian and Chinese warships patrolling in the Sea of Aden, close to the Persian Gulf and I do wonder if this is the beginnings of a permenant SCO Navel presence in the region and whether or not Port Facilites at Gwadar and maybe Iran and even Sudan will be made available to them?
NATO has about 85-90% of global naval power and basically all projection power and endlessly more persistence than the rest combined. Add in Australia/NZ and perhaps Japan and there is even less to "encircle" the West with.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
To be honest, no large country will fight another large country any time soon. There's no point! What does China have to gain from war with the U.S.? We buy their crap, they buy our bonds. I think we get the shorter end of the stick.

But for shits and giggles, what if we for the sake of arguement said there was a major war. I'll focus on the U.S., Russia, and China.

Say Russia got really pissed off about this East Europe missile shield, and decided to invade East Europe. Russia would probably being facing all of NATO, with probably minimal support. Being this outgunned, Russia's only chance would be to gain a major ally, such as China. However, why would China want to join Russia on a long bloody war? If China really wanted to join, they could join the NATO forces and come at Russia from behind, grabbing as much resources as they could along the way.
The other option is to drop a nuke on every platoon level formation in NATO. Iirc there still is a stockpile of 15000 tactical nuclear weapons in Russia. :rolleyes:

Ok maybe we can't do it to every platoon level formation, but ultimately almost any major Russia-NATO confrontation would end in Russia being defeated, unless the nuclear equilizer comes into play. So factor in Tochka and Iskander nuclear strikes, as well as old fashioned gravity bombs, and cruise missiles from Backfires, Fencers etc.

What if China attacked the U.S.? Well it really depends on how stealthfully they land. If they can get a large force on the U.S. mainland, then maybe they can do some work. However from a Navy v Navy, China trying to get the U.S. sort of idea, China's human numbers won't matter much and the U.S.' technology would be- I think- the deciding factor that would stop the Chinese from crossing the Pacific.

What if the U.S. attacked China? Well personally a land assault wouldn't be a good idea. The U.S.' best bet would be to gain air superiority (which could easily be done, China's airforce isn't that good). Then using air power, use the governments own structure of being centrally commanded. And attack the capital. Try to take out leaders at the top. If the upper leaders of the government in disarry or dead, then the rest of the country will be slow. Then if you want, you can make a ground assault, but only if the Chinese are in disarry. A ground assault would be hard to maintain, saying you would have to transport supplies across the Pacific.
Provided the USA is willing to commit the assets, it can pull off a successful ground assault with few difficulties. Would casualties be major? Probably. China is a nuclear power howere limited their arsenal is. Their conventional forces are also very large and more then capable of fighting back. The GBAD density is high, and the PLAAF is large which means they are far less vulnerable to attrition. Suppressing that would require a large part of the USAF and USN assets.

You can also use the airforce to attack food supplies, which could do major damage if it could affect the Chinese army or populous. Also the airforce could strike military bases, and other areas of value.

Russia would probably take all of this as American Imperialism, and join to help China. If this would happen, the U.S. would need NATO to step in and attack Russia.
Unlikely. Though I'm sure there would be public outrage, condemnation, straining of relations, etc. Ultimately Russia would take that with a sigh of relief. That means that Chinese pretensions in the CARs are done with, and the threat of a next door Chinese giant is over. We might even see some emergency weapon sales from Soviet war stocks to China, but I don't believe Russia will get involved in that kind of suicide.
 

riksavage

Banned Member
This is plain wrong. Right China have more industrial power than any other country, in some key areas (steel production) - even more than all other world combined. That could allow China to bring more cheap "mobilization" weapons than any other country. (And yes, F-22 and Abrams are USELESS here as mobilization weapons!) Some here with f.e. chemicals - although Germany is world-leading in bringing and researching new chemicals - it have much less raw industrial power to produce cheap, disposable chemicals needed for simple all-around explosives used in most common bombs, shells, etc.

Of course, given few years, West will easely match China's industrial power in that areas. The only problem - we discuss mobilization here. I.e. timeframe is from months to 1-2 years at most. In that time China will have sizeable advantage.

This is also very one-sided view. Of course, in the very long run USSR couldnt hope to fully match West - after all, West had more human resources.
But in mobilization terms - i.e. 1-2 years at most - WP (USSR especially) had huge advantage in military industrial power. Huge. Most military and civilian factories were build and maintained with mobilization possibility in mind - and WP could relocate they production to military needs literally in several weeks.

Add to that much large stored strategic reserves (both in military equipment and raw resources) - and you will see why "Red Hordes" were nightmare for West.
The transformation of a peacetime economy to a war time economy capable of producing weapons and material critical to maintenance of a protracted engagement is a more critical factor than mobilized manpower, particularly in the 21st Century weapons bring to the table disproportionate killing power in a conventional battle (one has assumed we are not discussing asymmetrical warfare here).

The 'Red Hordes' you mention are no different to the 'Red Hordes' thrown against Germany in the latter years of WWII. Critical to their ability to destroy the fighting ability of the German army was due to the industrial support provided by the US and delivered via the arctic convoy system. Whilst we love to talk about the T34 and Russian artillery systems as battle winners we must also remember that the majority of trucks keeping the latter supplied in the field were built in the US. Today the US still maintains the largest defense and R&D industrial base in the world regardless of the credit crunch, no other country can produce decisive weapons on the same scale.

The bigger the 'horde' the bigger the supply chain. Mobilizing a million men and handing them a rifle is one thing but keeping them supplied, fed and watered is the real challenge. You mobilize a million men, give each one an AK and one 30 round magazine, thats 30 million rounds drawn from stores, which have to be replaced and fed into the logistics chain. Moving a million men from A to B is a huge challenge, not many countries have the ability to do this outside their own borders.

Yes China's economy is growing experientially, but it is still driven by its ability to manufacture low-tech goods and export them to the global market place. If a war broke out between the West and China and the West stopped buying cheap products from the latter and instead bought from the old Eastern Block countries and/or Vietnam how would China sustain its current economic growth and fund a war economy? At the end of the day China is not a high-tech leader, there's nothing it currently produces, which can't be purchased/made elsewhere (at a higher cost maybe). At this point in time China still needs to buy / import proprietary equipment/knowledge from the West/Russia, most medium/high-tech industries I've come across in Southern China, Shozhou for example are still JV or 80-90% foreign owned ventures aligned with Japanese, Taiwanese, European or US Companies.

I accept China has huge financial reserves, but these would soon be eaten up as they tried to ramp up their own military industrial base and invest in high-tech weapons from Russia to fill any shortfalls. If you look at both WWI & WWII the US economy actually grew unlike that of Germany's and the UK's, due to the fact that its industrial base produced ordinance and material for the free world, this will likely happen again in a future conflict.

Also China suffers from a critical lack of natural resources, it may be the largest steel producer in the world, but it has to rely on imports of iron ore from Australia. In fact Australia supplies China with most of the critical minerals required for the manufacture of alloys, so take Aus out the loop and China's in deep trouble having to source raw materials elsewhere? Now they could turn to Africa, but the continent suffers from a poor infrastructure, plus China would have to maintain it's own lengthy convoy system to escort merchant shipping to the mainland.

No country is totally self-sufficient in natural resources (Canada and Australia come close), which means supply chains need to be secure. This lack of access to key resources was the main reason why the German petrochemical industry is now best and most advanced in the world, they had to turn to science to create substitutes for almost everything from explosive compounds, rubber to and synthetic fuels.
 
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Ender

New Member
Provided the USA is willing to commit the assets, it can pull off a successful ground assault with few difficulties. Would casualties be major? Probably. China is a nuclear power howere limited their arsenal is. Their conventional forces are also very large and more then capable of fighting back. The GBAD density is high, and the PLAAF is large which means they are far less vulnerable to attrition. Suppressing that would require a large part of the USAF and USN assets.
PLAAF not really a problem. Global firepower has them at 1,900 aircraft in 2004. The USAF was at roughly 15,000 as of 2007. U.S. aircraft also at better quality. China's airspace could be taken. I don't think GBAD can do anything to stop it, especially if the U.S. is willing to make an all out ground support.

You're probably right about Russia. But if I'm going through all this work of planning a war that's not going to happen, might as well make it bigger eh?

If you factored out nukes, and made it just U.S. v China, my best bet for the U.S. would be.

-Use Japan as a base
-Use USN as a shield
-Gain air superiority over China
-Bomb Capital (put gov in disarry)
-Begin Bombing Secondary Targets (Mainly Food Supply/Military Areas) while beginning ground assault.
-Hope everything goes well.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
You can't factor out nukes. Every country does it's military planning, and delegates military spending, with nuclear weapons as a part of it. If nukes were factored out, then Russia wouldn't be spending a large part of our meager defence budget on maintaining and producing nuclear weapons. That money would then be available to conventional forces. This is only the most basic level. You also need to consider that many countries structure their conventional forces, and deploy them, in a manner that reflects the realities which include nuclear weapons.
 

Sampanviking

Banned Member
WWII allies were pushed together by necessity of a separate and highly aggressive military power that was threatening them in the most direct fashion. Only a case of global total war brought together the WWII allies, who otherwise (between the USSR and GB with USA) would have had nothing to do with each other. Are we suggesting that the USA will go on a worldwide conquest spree, that will force Russia and China into a unlikely embrace?
Well thats the problem isnt it Feanor, that these things do not just start but creep up on you from blind spot. I think most people agree that WW2 started slowly over a period of nearly a decade, starting with the Sino-Japanese War and then the Anglo-Franko vs German war, both of which spread, intensified and joined up untill all the major world powers were sucked into it one way or the other.

Over the last seven years we have had the Invasion of Afghanistan and the Invasion of Iraq. We have an ongoing problem in Israel/Palestine that could spread to Lebanon and Syria, thus joining up with Iraq. We have constant threats against Iran which join up Iraq and Afghanistan and we also have heigher tensions between India and Pakistan, which adjoins to Afghanistan. Put these all together you have an arc of instability and conflict that spans from the Eastern Med all the way to Chinese Border and the Bay of Bengal. Further North, Russia and Georgia are still tense to say the least and Russia Georgia are not exactly Kissing Cousins. If you add to this mix some unexpected US success in regards to changing regimes in Kazakstan and Uzbekistan, I would say you have a keg ripe for the blowing!.

General Danois says

NATO has about 85-90% of global naval power and basically all projection power and endlessly more persistence than the rest combined. Add in Australia/NZ and perhaps Japan and there is even less to "encircle" the West with.
We are talking about a Central Asian Crisis based around Afghanistan and the Naval Element being Russian and Chinese Carrier Groups(as we now agree they are being built) working with local friendly Navies to prevent an unopposed approach to the South Asian Shoreline or transit through the Aden, Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea areas of the Indian Ocean.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
We are talking about a Central Asian Crisis based around Afghanistan and the Naval Element being Russian and Chinese Carrier Groups(as we now agree they are being built) working with local friendly Navies to prevent an unopposed approach to the South Asian Shoreline or transit through the Aden, Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea areas of the Indian Ocean.
1) You were the one talking about encirclement. ;)
2) The keel for how many 50-60k tonne CVs has been laid for SCO countries?

:D
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
1) You were the one talking about encirclement. ;)
2) The keel for how many 50-60k tonne CVs has been laid for SCO countries?

:D
This is where it starts to get more and more unlikely looking. If we're talking about a time period by which Russia, and China will have operating new CBGs, then by that time the Iraqi conflict will be over as the current trends suggest an increasing stability, and local success. If this is in the near future, then there are no SCO Naval forces worth considering, aside from potential Russian Northern Fleet deployments, but even then it's a distraction at most. The Israeli-Gaza conflict has been in permanent wind-down for decades. Where as in the past Arab-Israeli conflict involved multiple nations, and dramatic battles with the pinnacle of both sides technology used, now it's gotten down to a bunch of militia's shooting home made MLRS into Israel. Low intensity, and hardly capable of starting a world war. There is no way Syria, with an army that looks like a "Soviet Arms of the Early Cold War" museum, is going to get involved, and Lebanon will only be involved if Hezbollah drags it in.

Finally no regime change can be performed in Central Asia, unless it's done á la the Orange Revolution. The Central Asia is part of the CSTO and an American invasion there is unthinkable. If successful regime change does occur through internal sources then unless we're talking about Kazakhstan, Russia can't really project the ground forces there necessary to fight a war Georgia style. At least at this point. Possibly this will change in the future, as the reforms currently underway progress, and new equipment is delivered, readyness rates increase, etc. etc. etc. But then we're once again moving into a timeframe where Israel, and Iraq, and more or less out of the picture.

There is no single powderkeg in the greater Middle East, and the Russo-Georgian one already detonated. Not with bang, but with a whimper; as Saakashvili blinked first in the staring contest, the West backed off, and Russia didn't go all the way for regime change out of fear of international condemnation.

EDIT: If anything keep a close eye on Ukraine over the coming years. It will (at this rate) become more and more unstable as the economy continues to decay, the demographics become critical, and the political split in the country becomes more and more radicalized as a more or less resurgent Russia, and the EU-NATO, pull it in different directions.
 
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