Hypothetical mobilization capabilities of the major powers

[Sampanviking]

This is where it starts to get more and more unlikely looking. If we're talking about a time period by which Russia, and China will have operating new CBGs, then by that time the Iraqi conflict will be over as the current trends suggest an increasing stability, and local success. If this is in the near future, then there are no SCO Naval forces worth considering, aside from potential Russian Northern Fleet deployments, but even then it's a distraction at most. The Israeli-Gaza conflict has been in permanent wind-down for decades. Where as in the past Arab-Israeli conflict involved multiple nations, and dramatic battles with the pinnacle of both sides technology used, now it's gotten down to a bunch of militia's shooting home made MLRS into Israel. Low intensity, and hardly capable of starting a world war. There is no way Syria, with an army that looks like a "Soviet Arms of the Early Cold War" museum, is going to get involved, and Lebanon will only be involved if Hezbollah drags it in.

Finally no regime change can be performed in Central Asia, unless it's done á la the Orange Revolution. The Central Asia is part of the CSTO and an American invasion there is unthinkable. If successful regime change does occur through internal sources then unless we're talking about Kazakhstan, Russia can't really project the ground forces there necessary to fight a war Georgia style. At least at this point. Possibly this will change in the future, as the reforms currently underway progress, and new equipment is delivered, readyness rates increase, etc. etc. etc. But then we're once again moving into a timeframe where Israel, and Iraq, and more or less out of the picture.

There is no single powderkeg in the greater Middle East, and the Russo-Georgian one already detonated. Not with bang, but with a whimper; as Saakashvili blinked first in the staring contest, the West backed off, and Russia didn't go all the way for regime change out of fear of international condemnation.

EDIT: If anything keep a close eye on Ukraine over the coming years. It will (at this rate) become more and more unstable as the economy continues to decay, the demographics become critical, and the political split in the country becomes more and more radicalized as a more or less resurgent Russia, and the EU-NATO, pull it in different directions.

Sure, but its the unlikely and unexpected that is always the most dangerous, simply on that very account. Afterall who would have predicted in 1914 that a bunch of Nationalists in Bosnia would have been able to assassinate the Heir to one of Europes Great Empires and change the world forever?

More recently, If I had come here in Jan 2001 and posted that within 12 months a bunch of radicalised Saudis would hijack a number of domestic US Airliners and fly them into the World Trade Center and Pentagon, which triggered an immediate US Invasion of Afghanistan and later Iraq, you would have laughed me off the Boards.

I also am not underestimating the consequences of the equally "unforseen" Mumbai attacks. This crisis is by no means over and has already resulted in large numbers of Pakistani troops being redeployed from the Afghan border regions to the Indian border.

I dont want to get too hung up on how many Carriers etc. The Critical point is that China and Russia have found a legitimate reason to deploy naval forces in the Western Indian Ocean and that once such a patrol is established it is likely to remain in place indefinitly and that the option exists over time to strenghten it very significantly. That being said if the PLAN needed an operational Carrier ASAP, I am sure they could now get the Viking working pretty quickly. It is also a significiant decade anniversary for the PLA this year and that always means a few surprises in Springtime.

Put simply, Central Asia is an area in Geopolitical play and where all the major players converge in close proximity to sensitive geography. Underestimating the capabilities of any of the players, the level of the stakes or the ability for things to go t*ts up rapidly are the very things that will almost ensure that something will kick off sooner or later.

 

[SkolZkiy]

USN is also in the West Indian Ocean and this is normal - why RuN or PLAN can't be there??

 

[Feanor]

Sampanviking think about this, the Russian Navy has not sustained an overseas deployment over a significant period of time since the collapse of the USSR.

 

[Sampanviking]

USN is also in the West Indian Ocean and this is normal - why RuN or PLAN can't be there??

Your quite right, its International waters and so they have the the same right as anyone else to use them. We all know however its not as simple as that and that "legitimate" in this instance relates to the deployment not being viewed as "provocative" by the established powers.

Feanor says

Sampanviking think about this, the Russian Navy has not sustained an overseas deployment over a significant period of time since the collapse of the USSR.

True enough, but we have seen significantly increased activity by the Russian Navy recently, including visits/exercies in Venzula etc and they do have ships operating since last year in the Sea of Aden. Add to this the relative proximity of the base in Syria that has/is being reopened, then unless you are alleging some form of genetic inability inate to all Russians, I cannot see any valid reason why they would be unable to recommence permenant long distance patrols if they so wished.

Maybe you know otherwise?

 

[Feanor]

I don't know for sure. I don't work for the VMF But look at the deployments. They're usually 1-2 combat ships, always include a tugship. They're never proper taskforces. Typically just an individual ship, or two, with supply ships accompanying them. They never sustain a deployment, only do cruises and port visits. Occasional exercises with other countries. Is it impressive after years of rotting in port? Yes. Does it mean we're read to become a blue water navy again? No. The Gulf of Aden deployment is the first sustained deployment (if it ends up being sustained). The VMF is definetly on the road to recovery, but the recovery will be long and painful.