Russia-Georgia Conflict: News From the War zone

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Firehorse

Banned Member
Russia is 11 time zones big, in both Europe & Asia, has huge natural resources, and her polulation is disproportionaly low for the size.
IIRC that had/has nothing to do with dissuation.
That's in your opinion. "Russians are coming! They have huge conventional forces and we may have to use nukes to stop them!" Sounds familiar? How about USN SSBNs on detterant patrols?
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
Russia is 11 time zones big, in both Europe & Asia, has huge natural resources, and her polulation is disproportionaly low for the size.

That's in your opinion. "Russians are coming! They have huge conventional forces and we may have to use nukes to stop them!" Sounds familiar? How about USN SSBNs on detterant patrols?
You're mixing things up. Re-read the last posts. You're talking about deterrence, I'm talking about dissuasion.
 

Firehorse

Banned Member
Deterrence is a form of dissuasion.
The Western military/political logic doesn't even use Newton's Third Law. Believe me, as long as it is still on the map, Russia will never allow anyone to be militarily, overall, stronger than itself- they are conditioned to this by their history. Putin himself said: "It is the weak that are beaten up".
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
Deterrence is a form of dissuasion.
The Western military/political logic doesn't even use Newton's Third Law. Believe me, as long as it is still on the map, Russia will never allow anyone to be militarily, overall, stronger than itself- they are conditioned to this by their history. Putin himself said: "It is the weak that are beaten up".
Dissuation/deterrence? Not per doctrine. And certainly not as you use it.

Tough luck for Putin.
 

Firehorse

Banned Member
Are the US and Georgia any luckier now?
It's important what criteria Russia uses to evaluate her security situation- not what all-knowing strategists and think tanks find suitable to use.
 

Feanor

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Like I wrote way before on another tread, if Iran isn't going to be allowed to have nukes, what is the real BMD purpose near Russia? Hint: Pakistan, India & China already have WMD and means to deliver them, soon to be joined by Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Iran nuclear issue is just a convinient excuse!
Iran has conventional ballistic missiles that can kill thousands, and if they carry bacteriological or chemical warheads, tens of thousands. Finally like Grand Danois noted, it's a matter of having the capability more then it is a matter of dealing with Iran. The genie is out of the box, now it's just a matter of the race between penetrating systems, and BMDs.
 

nevidimka

New Member
What is the real objective of the BMD? The Soviet Union itself with nuclear parity with the US did not launch a single missile at US. Even at 1 time having more nuclear weapons than the US, because it was not beneficial due to MAD outcome.
What makes it that Iran would want to launch a limited number of nuclear missile towards Western Europe and ensure its annihilation from the face of the world? That is akin to committing suicide with senseless goal like a terrorist. Something that Iran as a state is not.
 

Feanor

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The USA never attacked the Soviet Union openly. Again it would not be nuclear warheads (or even nuclear, it doesn't matter). The main issue is that the USA wants to be able to bomb Iran into sawdust at will, and to make sure Iran can't retaliate with nuclear attacks on other NATO members BMD comes in very handy. By the way it's also handy against any ballistic missiles launched from the Middle East towards Europe. Now put that together with the GBI in Alaska and California. Now add SM-2, and F-15's downing early warning sattelites, should the defender have any. Now fast forward 10, 15, 20, 25 years. Come on, extrapolate the trend. Large ICBM arsenals are expensive, and SLBM's are even more expensive. Now we see the real threat to Russia. The current BMD is useless agaisnt Russia, but the whole concept immediately brings into question the long term viability of nuclear deterrence, which is the number one corner stone of Russian national security. At the same time now we see the purpose of the BMD in Eastern Europe. It's simply the start of a BMD development by the USA, not so much in hopes of modern day capabilities, but in hopes of future capabilities.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
Then I suggest Russia do away with its nukes and BMD so that other nations can have a "fair, conventional" fight with Russia.

Those without nukes.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Hey remember the article on the Estonian Soviet Socialist Republic? Well there is now a push for an autonomous Russian region within Estonia.

http://newsru.com/world/15sep2008/avtonomia.html

The shaded areas are the proposed territory.

That includes (as of 2005) about 57% of Estonias population & 67.5% of GDP. Russians are a minority (<40% of population) within that territory, & a very small minority in most of it. Ethnic Estonians are the majority of the population of that area, & in most of it (almost all the rural areas) the overwhelming majority.

Russians in Estonia are a majority in one county (Ida-Viru) in the north-east, in particular, the towns of Ida-Viru, & even there, there are more Estonians than Russians in the surrounding rural areas, but there are more Russians living in areas where they are outnumbered by Estonians than in the areas where they are a majority. Almost half of the Russian minority in Estonia live in Tallinn, the capital, where they are about 36% of the population. The proposed area would include almost all Russians, but only by including even more Estonians. Of the three counties included, one is 80% Russian, one 35% Russian, & one is almost 90% Estonian, & only about 10% Russian (11% in the last census, but falling).

(Source: Estonia 2001 census)

It is an insane proposal.
 
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nevidimka

New Member
Whats the latest situation in the region that said they have become independent from Estonia? What is the Estonian gov' actions? From previous articles its said those ppl there have established thier own administrations and police to do patrols?
 

Feanor

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Then I suggest Russia do away with its nukes and BMD so that other nations can have a "fair, conventional" fight with Russia.

Those without nukes.
It's not about fairness. It's about national security, and the proliferation of BMD's is undermining Russian national security. The U.S. is choosing to ignore these concerns, so it should not be surprised that Russia is slightly upset about it.

As for the ESSR, the word used was "хутор". Somewhere half way between a single farm and a village.
 

Firehorse

Banned Member
Then I suggest Russia do away with its nukes and BMD so that other nations can have a "fair, conventional" fight with Russia. Those without nukes.
It won't happen. The best thing for them is to build more SSBNs, TU-160s, SU-34s, and work on things to defeat BMD. Economicaly, they could allow more Chinese immigration and set up another "world's factory" producing cheap consumer goods for the West- than if there is a big crisis, stop lending $ to the US. The effect will be comparable to nukes going off, without any radiation.:eek:nfloorl:

Russia shows off the spoils of war in Georgia
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-off-the-spoils-of-war-in-georgia-932006.html

The West Begins to Doubt Georgian Leader
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,druck-578273,00.html

Phone taps 'prove Georgia's case'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7619275.stm

Russian navy top brass want to keep Ukraine port
http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=349749
 
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Grand Danois

Entertainer
It's not about fairness. It's about national security, and the proliferation of BMD's is undermining Russian national security. The U.S. is choosing to ignore these concerns, so it should not be surprised that Russia is slightly upset about it.

As for the ESSR, the word used was "хутор". Somewhere half way between a single farm and a village.
Security. I reiterate: most nation don't have nuclear weapons and it works quite fine for them. The French, Chinese, Indians, Israel, Pakistan do quite nicely without doing a nuclear arms race with the US. Why should they.

And in the future everybody will have a BMD - Europe, US, China, India... The Russian have had extensive BMD around Moscow and introducing S-400...

And why should the US restrain itself out of hurt Russian feelings? Do they care about Danish hurt feelings? French? German?

The Cold War is over in the West.

The BMD is directed at "non-integrated gap" states. Unstable and often dirt poor countries tempted to build WMD for prestige and other influence reasons.

Translation. I gathered it to be a "large farm" - perhaps "hamlet". I don't read Russian. ;)
 

Feanor

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Security. I reiterate: most nation don't have nuclear weapons and it works quite fine for them. The French, Chinese, Indians, Israel, Pakistan do quite nicely without doing a nuclear arms race with the US. Why should they.
Because they generally do not have regional interests that directly conflict with the USA. Most do not have aspirations to be a world power. China by the way is trying to close the gap in nuclear weapons, they're just doing it gradually. However their SSBM program is pretty clearly aimed against the USA. Pakistan is a pro-American sattelite state, with an unstable government and tribal leaders that are trying to destabilize the country further. Israel is for the most part far too dependent on US military aid to be an truly independent power. The French are part of NATO and are practically shutting down their nuclear capabilities. India is a strange case, but the truth is that they have very few geopolitical aspirations. Perhaps in the future they will come into conflict, at least diplomatically with the USA, especially if they continue to have relations with Iran, Russia.... etc.

And in the future everybody will have a BMD - Europe, US, China, India... The Russian have had extensive BMD around Moscow and introducing S-400...

And why should the US restrain itself out of hurt Russian feelings? Do they care about Danish hurt feelings? French? German?
It's got nothing to do with hurt feelings and everything with national security. Let me remind you that the USA has launched more interventions in the past century, then Russia, by a factor of 10 if not more. Given such an aggressive foreign policy, as well as funding of opposition parties within Russia, and within other countries (just imagine if Russia was funding the democratic party...... the scandal and accusations of meddling in American business would be huge), it's only natural that Russia is distrustful of the USA and as such needs a guarantee that the USA won't invade. Naturally your word isn't good enough. But a few hunderd ICBMs pointed at your cities probably is.

The BMD is directed at "non-integrated gap" states. Unstable and often dirt poor countries tempted to build WMD for prestige and other influence reasons.
This BMD is directed at just that. But the capabilities that are being developed, as well as the development of other BMD components, makes future prospects highly problematic. Finally it sets a pretty simple precedent. In the future, if the Russian nuclear arsenal continues to shrink, and America deploys BMD sites in Greenland, and Norway, as well as enhancing the BMD in Alaska and California, the situation could arise where the Russian nuclear arsenal is useless.

And then one day, when George Bush the 3rd, or the 14532462346th, doesn't really matter, decides that Russian weapon sales to Hezbollah, or Iran, or North Korea, are supporting terrorism (or communism, or whatever) and decides to invade and make Russia a "democratic" country, what will Russia be left with in terms of options?

Translation. I gathered it to be a "large farm" - perhaps "hamlet". I don't read Russian. ;)
I guess we'll have to wait in the news to see if anything comes of it.
 

KGB

New Member
If the BMD was pointed at Iran, why was Putin's offer of a site in Azerbaijan declined by the US?
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
If the BMD was pointed at Iran, why was Putin's offer of a site in Azerbaijan declined by the US?
Because the site is derelict and in an geographically/politically untenable place. It is also technically in the wrong place for tracking during the intercept, it would only provide early warning.

Putin knew this when making the proposal, thus he already knew the answer. It was not a genuine proposal - a red herring.

So why did he propose it? Well, he did make you ask the question here.

Cheers
 

nevidimka

New Member
Because the site is derelict and in an geographically/politically untenable place. It is also technically in the wrong place for tracking during the intercept, it would only provide early warning.

Putin knew this when making the proposal, thus he already knew the answer. It was not a genuine proposal - a red herring.

So why did he propose it? Well, he did make you ask the question here.

Cheers
And you know this from some western based publications?

And then why was Russia not allowed to have observers in the radar station if its not aimed at Russia?



Also there are conflicting views on the situation on Georgian and Ukrainian NATO ambitions. This report below says its not gonna happen :

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/NATO_Blocked_In_The_Caucusus_Part_Two_999.html

And there are plenty of US talk that its gonna happen. Which is true? Perhaps the US talk is trying to b tough in face of its embarrassment, and due to trying to appear tough for the coming elections. I Wonder if there would be a different tune from US once the elections are over?
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
And you know this from some western based publications?
Yup. The GBI is known to need 1500 km of flight before intercept. Draw a circle on a map with a radius of 1500 km and with the centre just southwest of Kaliningrad and you'll realise where the intercept is intended to take place. (Black Sea, Mediterranean, Adriatic, Aegean).

To find out where to place an X-band LOS tracking radar you need to cover the area outside of that circle and pointing south. So we're talking Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic. Political circumstances were most favourable in the Czech Republic.


Of course in order to exthort domestic and political capital Putin has to make a fuss, and the only case he can make is that the BMD is a threat to Russia. Though the agenda is entirely different.

And then why was Russia not allowed to have observers in the radar station if its not aimed at Russia?
That was another red herring. Putin knew that the Poles and Czechs would never allow Russian troops to be stationed on their territory again. Putin used it to create the perception that Russia was the victim of Western unwillingness to cooperate.

Many politicians and negotiators use this tactic - it is not unique to Putin.

Cheers
 
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