Afghanistan War News & Discussions

[Ozzy Blizzard]

Since there isn’t an Afghanistan thread I thought I'd start one.

With NATO/Coalition casualties rising by the day, earmarked by the 10 French KIA earlier this week, serious questions are being raised on the wars long term outlook. I have a few questions that will hopefully stimulate discussion on this vital issue.

• What is happening on the ground in the ‘ghan?
• Is the west making any ground on the Taliban insurgency?
• What is behind the surge in Taliban activity?
• Is the resignation of Pakistani president Musharraf having an effect?
• Is NATO’s strategy fundamentally flawed?
• Do NATO have sufficient boots on the ground to do the job?
• What would failure mean for the alliance?

 

[Topmaul]

You can rule Afghanistan as long as you leave the opium alone, I think we all know that. I am suprised you did not mention opium it is the economy in Afghanistan, not attempting to deal Opium production made our occupation so far pretty easy compared to what the Soviets had to deal with.

 

[merocaine]

Well I guess first off is that things have been on the slide for a while in Afghanistan. The main reason is the looonggg border with the Pakistani tribal regions. Almost impossible to police.
The weakness of the Afghan Government has to be added to the mix. In the South and Parts of the East of the Country there regarded as the enemy, not a viable government. Its authority extends only to the main cities.
The Taliban itself has retrained, changed tactics, and is proving an adaptable foe, and a skilled propagandist.
It is also misleading to think of them as a single organization, there are many elements involved, drugs, local warlords, Al Queada, Pakistanis from the Tribal belts, local Pashtun, forigen fighters, Uzbeks, Chechens, ect.

There is also the failure of the Nato force. Quite frankly pathetic. Half the troops are kept out of the war zone. The other half are trying to police a hugh area without any long term success. There use of air strikes has also managed to drive the population further into the hands of the insurgency.

One the plus side, the North and east of the Country are unlighty to ever fall to the Taliban itself, but there is the possiblity they could fall even further under the control of local warlords and criminals.

The Taliban tactics show little concern for Civilians, and will eventually cause resentment, even among there own.

The Americans appear committed, and are in for the long haul. I can see them now taking the lead, since Nato seems incapable of exerting control of the situation.

 

[Chrom]

The Americans appear committed, and are in for the long haul. I can see them now taking the lead, since Nato seems incapable of exerting control of the situation.

This is only half the truth - the REAL truth is most NATO countries feel US pressured and trapped them in Afghanistan against they will. This is main reason why US efforts in Afghanistan meets so little help among major NATO countries like Germany.

Formally, they agreed to help. But practically - they dont want this war.

 

[kato]

True; although most major NATO armies have at least one brigade stationed down there.

There's also that additional feeling that the US bailed out of the Balkans, and left Europe to pick up the scraps, claiming "it's your thing" - somewhat at least. It does give thought about a reciprocal movement, ie. "well, it's your war, not ours" with regard to Afghanistan.

 

[Chrom]

True; although most major NATO armies have at least one brigade stationed down there.

That why they feel itself trapped.

There's also that additional feeling that the US bailed out of the Balkans, and left Europe to pick up the scraps, claiming "it's your thing" - somewhat at least. It does give thought about a reciprocal movement, ie. "well, it's your war, not ours" with regard to Afghanistan.

Also partially true - but only partially. Actually, "old" EU will be more than happy if US completely bails out of the Balkans. The main EU concern here - US doing something in american (national) interests - but most rising problems and expenses fall mainly on EU side.

 

[eaf-f16]

A day after the 10 French paratroopers were killed, an additional 8 ISAF troops were killed in one day. Earlier that week 25 French troops were wounded in battles with Taliban fighters.

The Afghan government is corrupt and inefficient at the district and provincial levels. The Taliban is basically the local government in many parts of Afghanistan. It collects taxes and enforces the law in these areas. It even runs courts, prisons and settles disputes between tribes and families. This type of stability and order goes a long way in ensuring the loyalty of locals in the areas in which there is little ISAF or government presence. A lot of this "loyalty" also comes from the Taliban's heavy-handed tactics against anyone who dares break the rules and laws they put in place.

The Afghan National Army is well trained and motivated and is progressing very well. The Afghan National Police are badly trained and equipped and have a very high-causality rate representing the vast majority (well over half) of security forces killed from 2007 to 2008 (this includes ISAF deaths).

Illegal drug production has more than doubled over the past 5 years and is major source of income for the Taliban, war lords and criminals. The Taliban are also collecting money from the marble trade.

There has been a 34% increase in "kinetic events" this year alone. The uncertain political situation in Pakistan makes it hard to predict how and to what degree Pakistan will co-operate with the US and NATO on Afghanistan in the future. Right now, there is almost nil coordination/cooperation between the Afghan and Pakistan governments and militaries.

There is, right now, a troop shortage in Afghanistan. The US hopes to offset NATO's unwillingness to commit more troops by doubling the size of the ANA and sending an additional 15,000 troops.

The ISAF's command structure is not a coherent one (but I read an article about the US solving this soon) and there isn't any good coordination between ISAF and ANA and political and humanitarian organizations.

This what I got from doing some quick (and superficial) research on the current situation in Afghanistan. I'll put up some better analysis/info later on.

 

[radiosilence]

There's also that additional feeling that the US bailed out of the Balkans, and left Europe to pick up the scraps, claiming "it's your thing" - somewhat at least. It does give thought about a reciprocal movement, ie. "well, it's your war, not ours" with regard to Afghanistan.

A stable Afghanistan is very much in Europe's interest since most of the drugs from Afghanistan make their way into Europe. Also, a number of foiled terrorist plots on Europe have orginated from Afghanistan/Pakistan border region.

 

[jimmyboy]

The Forgotten war

You will never win a war with half hearted attempts. The current Afgan war is nothing more than a half attempt by NATO to defeat Taliban/Al-Qida. US/NATO want to show the world that they are fighting terrorists in Afganstan but they have limited the capacity of the ground commanders by curtailing the number of ground troops. Also Afgan war can never be won till NATO/US troops go into the NWFP of Pakistan and remove Taliban training camps there.

 

[Sampanviking]

Nobody has queried the possible effects of the Georgian crisis on Afghanistan I notice, this is a little amiss, given that Afghanistan is another sore point in the East West relationship.

On the 28th Russia will meet with its SCO allies at the Heads of State conference in Dushanbe and I for one am very interested in what Russia will press for and indeed what the attitude of China will be once the Olympics are all out of the way.

I think Russia will exert considerable pressure on Kyrgyzstan to close the US base on its territory. I am also curious to see how China reacts to the loss of its friend Musharrif of Pakistan.

There are also questions to Iran’s application for SCO membership (and Pakistan’s for that matter).

What had until last month seemed a fairly quiet and routine meeting could now be potentially quite exciting.

 

[kato]

Also, a number of foiled terrorist plots on Europe have orginated from Afghanistan/Pakistan border region.

Which please? Other than occasional previous training in Afghanistan having come in, the suspects in such acts are usually the same "kind" of subjects - locally integrated immigrants or converts from traditional immigration countries to their respective countries, such as Morocco, Egypt, Lebanon or Jamaica. In fact, Al Quaeda wasn't even in the command chain for such events.

 

[Chrom]

A stable Afghanistan is very much in Europe's interest since most of the drugs from Afghanistan make their way into Europe. Also, a number of foiled terrorist plots on Europe have orginated from Afghanistan/Pakistan border region.

In that case they should have leaved Taliban alone.

 

[Chrom]

You will never win a war with half hearted attempts. The current Afgan war is nothing more than a half attempt by NATO to defeat Taliban/Al-Qida. US/NATO want to show the world that they are fighting terrorists in Afganstan but they have limited the capacity of the ground commanders by curtailing the number of ground troops. Also Afgan war can never be won till NATO/US troops go into the NWFP of Pakistan and remove Taliban training camps there.

Afganstan war cant be won by force anyway. Even if NATO kills each and every Taliban / tribe member (genocide anyone?) - this will not help. Next day NATO pulls out there will be thousands "terrorists" screaming for revenge.

Only total education bounded with greatly increased life standards can win the war.

 

[Topmaul]

I think we should use Agent-Orange on the Opium fields and quit screwing around with it.

 

[eaf-f16]

Afganstan war cant be won by force anyway. Even if NATO kills each and every Taliban / tribe member (genocide anyone?) - this will not help. Next day NATO pulls out there will be thousands "terrorists" screaming for revenge.

Only total education bounded with greatly increased life standards can win the war.

Education should be a secondary priority right now (I know this sounds bad).

If the goal is to "defeat" (this is never going to really happen) the Taliban then the main priorities should be solving the governance issues, solving the very serious problems with the Afghan National Police, and significantly enhancing the ANA's and ISAF's presence in the regions which border Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province (NWFP).

ISAF and the Afghan government should also make significant efforts to try to coordinate their efforts with the Pakistani military and government (instead of alienating them by staging cross-border raids and saying they support terrorism). Otherwise, this is never going to work.

This will eventually (a few years from now) lead to the "defeat" of the Taliban (weakening to the point were it can no longer mount continuous/significant attacks on SF's and is reduced to acts terrorism).

I think we should use Agent-Orange on the Opium fields and quit screwing around with it.

Isn't that illegal now?

 

[radiosilence]

Which please?

Al-Qaeda plotters sentenced

The court heard that Trabelsi, 33, met al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden several times in Afghanistan and asked to become a suicide bomber.


There was heavy security at the courthouse
He says he was ordered to go to Belgium, pack a bomb into a lorry and blow it up - with him at the wheel

bbc

 

[radiosilence]

In that case they should have leaved Taliban alone.

Do you consider the Taliban rule of Afghanistan stable when they host terrorist training bases openly?

 

[Chrom]

Education should be a secondary priority right now (I know this sounds bad).

If the goal is to "defeat" (this is never going to really happen) the Taliban then the main priorities should be solving the governance issues, solving the very serious problems with the Afghan National Police, and significantly enhancing the ANA's and ISAF's presence in the regions which border Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province (NWFP).

All this is nearly impossible. Afghan National Police police is to great extent plagued by spyes/realtives/followers/etc of Taliban / Warlord tribes. It cant be used in any independent activity, and any plans relayed to it will be instantly known to Taliban/etc.

ISAF and the Afghan government should also make significant efforts to try to coordinate their efforts with the Pakistani military and government (instead of alienating them by staging cross-border raids and saying they support terrorism). Otherwise, this is never going to work.

Afghan government dont control much, it is just another NATO-friendly tribe between many others. Noone deals with weaklings.

This will eventually (a few years from now) lead to the "defeat" of the Taliban (weakening to the point were it can no longer mount continuous/significant attacks on SF's and is reduced to acts terrorism).

I explained why it is nearly impossible to achieve...

 

[Chrom]

Do you consider the Taliban rule of Afghanistan stable when they host terrorist training bases openly?

They host these bases now as well - may be not so openly, but they have more members crying for revenge instead. Also, obviously, the ten-fold increase in narcotic production (which btw mainly go to EU, while Afghanistan is mainly US affair) - speak to itself.

Btw, "terrorist" training bases are too biased words. For Taliban they just trained soldiers to protect they land. While Taliban was official government, there was very good chance these soldiers would never leave Afghanistan, or at very least not at much higher rate than from many other countries - like Saudi Arabia.

Generally, it is much better when main enemy is official power. Then it can be pressured by many ways, and it carries responsibility for own folk. It is much worse than such strong enemy is unofficial power - it have no responsibility, no stops then.

 

[eaf-f16]

All this is nearly impossible. Afghan National Police police is to great extent plagued by spyes/realtives/followers/etc of Taliban / Warlord tribes. It cant be used in any independent activity, and any plans relayed to it will be instantly known to Taliban/etc.

Afghan government dont control much, it is just another NATO-friendly tribe between many others. Noone deals with weaklings.

I explained why it is nearly impossible to achieve...

Most people in Afghanistan are not Taliban sympathizers because unlike other militant groups in the Muslim world they put their ethnicity and tribal traditions first and everything else (including religion) second.

It is not impossible to defeat the Taliban aren't a popular movement at all in Afghanistan. They aren't like Hezbollah, Islamic Army of Iraq, Chechen rebels, etc. whom have wide and solid support in their respective countries and areas of operation.

It is impossible to defeat them completely because they do have some popularity in the NWFP (which is relatively lawless) because the people there are ethnic Pashtuns (same ethnicity as Taliban) with roughly the same ideology and traditions as the Taliban.

But NATO doesn't have to worry at all about informants in the ANP or ANA since they are usually anti-Taliban (the ANA much more so than the ANP).

The problems with the ANP aren't Taliban-sympathizing related. They lack in numbers, training and equipment (mainly numbers and training, though)

They host these bases now as well - may be not so openly, but they have more members crying for revenge instead. Also, obviously, the ten-fold increase in narcotic production (which btw mainly go to EU, while Afghanistan is mainly US affair) - speak to itself.

Btw, "terrorist" training bases are too biased words. For Taliban they just trained soldiers to protect they land. While Taliban was official government, there was very good chance these soldiers would never leave Afghanistan, or at very least not at much higher rate than from many other countries - like Saudi Arabia.

Generally, it is much better when main enemy is official power. Then it can be pressured by many ways, and it carries responsibility for own folk. It is much worse than such strong enemy is unofficial power - it have no responsibility, no stops then.

I thought Afghan heroine mainly go to Iran and Pakistan.

Anyways, even when the Taliban was the official power, it couldn't care less what happened to its people. The Taliban's tribal traditions encourage backwardness and isolationism. So, any outside pressure like sanctions and isolation are actually good for the Taliban.

And to the Taliban, their fighters are neither terrorists or soldiers. They are the guys that keep the Taliban's leaders and tribes protected and in a position of power. The Taliban isn't a "people's movement" because it favors some tribes and ethnic groups over others.