Russia-Europe Energy Thread

[Vivendi]

The flow of emigrants goes the same way. Russians are working abroad not as part of a cunning plot to enrich Russia, but because they can earn more & live better abroad than at home. Japanese, on the contrary, usually go abroad to work for personal reasons (my partner), or because their Japanese employer sends them temporarily to a foreign subsidiary (her brother-in-law & uncle).

http://www.tu.no/offshore/article175259.ece

Rapporten fra Bedriftskompetanse sier imidlertid at «mange profesjoner innenfor privat sektor i Russland i dag har et lønnsnivå som relativt sett kan konkurrere med Norge».

Som et eksempel vises det i rapporten til at Kimek Offshore i Kirkenes i fjor stanset et kvalifiseringsprogram som over flere år har gitt verftsbedriften tilgang på russiske sveisere. Årsaken var at det siste kullet valgte å bli i Russland da de fikk konkurransedyktige betingelser ved et verft i Severodinsk utenfor Arkhangelsk.

My rough translation:

The Report from Bedriftskompetanse says however that "many professions within private sector in Russia today has a salary level that in relative terms is competitive to Norways"

As an example the report says that Kimek Offshore in Kirkenes last year stopped a program that over several years have given the company access to russian melders. The reason was that the last group decided to stay in Russia when they got competitive offer at a company in Severodinsk outside Arkhangelsk

Would the above not be an indication that although the inflation is Russia is an issue it seems not to eat too much of people's earnings? Norway is after all one of the richest countries in the world. Wages are decent and standard of living is acceptable; when all these workers decide to stay in Russia perhaps it says something?


Still, I agree with most of what Swerve, GD and Jon K has written in this thread so far. However, unlike democracies Russia can choose to use a very high percentage of the GDP on defence if the Russian leaders decide to do so. Therefore, although it would probably never rank very high in economic terms it could in theory rank much higher in militarly terms. Add to that the nuclear weapons.

Clearly Russia still has lots of problems. Inflation, corruption, and alcoholism are probably some of the main issues. Lack of democracy is another issue.


Norway has been very succesful in reducing inflation in spite of being an "oil country". Russia is trying to learn from the Norwegian experience. It will be interesting to see if they succeed in lowering inflation. In my personal opinion corruption is probably a bigger problem for Russian economy than inflation, but I may be wrong of course.


V

 

[Feanor]

Corruption and inflation are only two of the problems. Among others, there are infrastructural issues, demographic problems, a decrepit health industry, and rather poor quality higher education (relative).

In terms of immigration there has been a somewhat reversal of the trend. While compared to the West, Russia is still behind, compared to much of the ex-USSR it's coming out ahead, which leads to immigration into Russia, in particular from the Caucus. The question is whether Russian domestic industry can successfully develop to compete with the West. If the anwser is yes, then Russia will eventually diversify and come out as a major modern day world power. If it can't, then Russia will remain a cold Saudi Arabia with nukes.

 

[swerve]

Feanor,

yes. And it's too early to tell which way Russia is going.

 

[merocaine]

demographic problems

That seems to me to be the major problem for Russia, and it feeds into so many other problems as well. How Russian deals with this has major import for its neighbours, ie does it increase its population by absorbing the Russians residing outside the borders of Russia proper?

 

[Grand Danois]

That seems to me to be the major problem for Russia, and it feeds into so many other problems as well. How Russian deals with this has major import for its neighbours, ie does it increase its population by absorbing the Russians residing outside the borders of Russia proper?

The age group from 0-9 years only consist of 14 million individuals... In other words, this is the size of the reproductive age group in 20 years. Need not say what the impact of this is...

 

[rattmuff]

Not my subject really... Atleast I can throw in two "old" related reports.

Tackling Dependency - The EU and its Energy Security Challanges
October 2007, 80 pages
http://www2.foi.se/rapp/foir2311.pdf

Nord Stream, Sweden and Baltic Sea Security
March 2007, 110 pages
http://www2.foi.se/rapp/foir2251.pdf

I know some of you will read this.

 

[merocaine]

The age group from 0-9 years only consist of 14 million individuals... In other words, this is the size of the reproductive age group in 20 years. Need not say what the impact of this is...

wow... I honestly did'ent think it was that bad!

 

[Grand Danois]

wow... I honestly did'ent think it was that bad!

I'm not expanding on this topic to denigrate on Russia, but this is by far the most serious issue facing Russia.

If one looks at the number of births in Soviet Russia it was at 2.4 million/year. After the dissolution it fell to around 1.3-1.4 million/year* - and it is those years that are going to reproduce in the coming years, as they're now of age. At the current fertility rate of 1.39 they'll get around 1 million children per year. If that was done at replacement fertility rates (2.1 per female) the Russian population would stabilize at 65-70 million mid-century. But it is not stable, they're in a decline which will accellerate - and it is too late - they've already fallen off the demograpics cliff. If no dramaitc change occur over the next 5-10 years they may go as low as 50 million...

And they sit on a huge chunk of land and with a only handful of million inhabitants in the Far East and with a couple of hundred million Chinese just across the other side of a border defined by the relative strength of the two powers in the 19-20th century. (Sidenote; with the Russian border in Europe being postmodern in nature and the border in Caucasus being pre-modern, what is the border with China then?)

"Will virility be enough?", one could have asked Mackinder.

Those 15 million Russians inside the borders of Belorus and Ukraine suddenly become a very, very important asset for Russia proper, though they're in an even more rapid demographics decline!

* Table 1. http://www.prb.org/Articles/2002/RussiasDemographicDeclineContinues.aspx?p=1

 

[Sampanviking]

I

And they sit on a huge chunk of land and with a only handful of million inhabitants in the Far East and with a couple of hundred million Chinese just across the other side of a border defined by the relative strength of the two powers in the 19-20th century. (Sidenote; with the Russian border in Europe being postmodern in nature and the border in Caucasus being pre-modern, what is the border with China then?)

Only last month China and Russia completed their comprehensive border review, or to put it more simply, they have settled all their border disputes. With this final obstacle out of the way, many options are now open for joint developement of Eastern Siberia either bilaterally or (more likely in my opinion)more widely with the other Central Asian countries under the banner of the SCO.

Please do not try and revivie the old and discredited scare story of Chinese colonialisation of Eastern Siberia, it is more than probable for many millions of Chinese to move across the border without upsetting the Political status quo, the Chinese are afterall not only among one of the worlds most industrious people but also among the least politically aspirational, a fact atested to by the lack of Nationalism in the large Chinese diasporas in most SE Asian countries.

 

[Grand Danois]

Only last month China and Russia completed their comprehensive border review, or to put it more simply, they have settled all their border disputes. With this final obstacle out of the way, many options are now open for joint developement of Eastern Siberia either bilaterally or (more likely in my opinion)more widely with the other Central Asian countries under the banner of the SCO.

Please do not try and revivie the old and discredited scare story of Chinese colonialisation of Eastern Siberia, it is more than probable for many millions of Chinese to move across the border without upsetting the Political status quo, the Chinese are afterall not only among one of the worlds most industrious people but also among the least politically aspirational, a fact atested to by the lack of Nationalism in the large Chinese diasporas in most SE Asian countries.

Well, fair enough. I've just seen some other interpretations of that recent border review and they weren't that optimistic on the impact - it was a show of symbolism rather than actual settling (and it wasn't from neo-cons or alarmists or any such kind of people I got it from).

But what do the Russians say? We've just witnessed a de facto annexation by coming to the aid of passport citizens?

 

[Feanor]

The ultimate anwser is time will tell. But in truth, the demographic trend seems to be intent on reversing itself. The population decline has actually been dropping. This year (from what I've read) it's projected to only be at ~300 000, down from over ~700 000 last year. I'm more worried about industrial development, which seems to be slowing.

 

[Grand Danois]

The ultimate anwser is time will tell. But in truth, the demographic trend seems to be intent on reversing itself. The population decline has actually been dropping. This year (from what I've read) it's projected to only be at ~300 000, down from over ~700 000 last year. I'm more worried about industrial development, which seems to be slowing.

Yes, time will tell (as we can't know the fertility rates of the future - but we do know the number of births up to now and the current fertility rate). The reason why the decline is less these years is because life expectance is on the increase, not because more babies are born. The coming years the decline will accelerate dramatically as life expectancy won't increase so much more and births are projected to be lower.

To be honest I can't figure out why this is happening. At the first glance I thought it was due to lack of connectivity (a globalisation term), however the former WarPac members have even lower fertility!

SK and Japan are also lower, but they can better be explained, and then there are the outliers (Macau, HK).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_territories_by_fertility_rate

Now I'm at Wikipedia: 6.7 million Russians in the Far East today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Far_Eastern_Federal_District

 

[Chrom]

Yes, time will tell (as we can't know the fertility rates of the future - but we do know the number of births up to now and the current fertility rate). The reason why the decline is less these years is because life expectance is on the increase, not because more babies are born. The coming years the decline will accelerate dramatically as life expectancy won't increase so much more and births are projected to be lower.

To be honest I can't figure out why this is happening. At the first glance I thought it was due to lack of connectivity (a globalisation term), however the former WarPac members have even lower fertility!

SK and Japan are also lower, but they can better be explained, and then there are the outliers (Macau, HK).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_territories_by_fertility_rate

Now I'm at Wikipedia: 6.7 million Russians in the Far East today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Far_Eastern_Federal_District

Heh, actually from the table we see clear increase in birth rate in Russia compared to year 2000. It is now roughly on EU level, almost exactly the same as in Germany. On the other hand, we see sharp decrease of birthrate in Poland... i wonder why. Also worth noting the difference between Baltic States and (relative) high birthrate in ruined Serbia.

 

[Grand Danois]

Heh, actually from the table we see clear increase in birth rate in Russia compared to year 2000. It is now roughly on EU level, almost exactly the same as in Germany. On the other hand, we see sharp decrease of birthrate in Poland... i wonder why. Also worth noting the difference between Baltic States and (relative) high birthrate in ruined Serbia.

But a far cry from 2.1 per female. And 1.39 is not 1.50 (EU average) when it is used in multiple iterations.

(and EU has 500 million pop to begin with and plenty of immigration, secure borders and long life expectancy.)

 

[Feanor]

Chrom is actually right. Whie the main reason for the slowing of the decline is immigration and slightly longer life expectancy, birt rates have been on a slow but steady increase. This is (in my opinion) one of the few negative trends in Russia that may reverse itself in the near future.

 

[Sampanviking]

Well, fair enough. I've just seen some other interpretations of that recent border review and they weren't that optimistic on the impact - it was a show of symbolism rather than actual settling (and it wasn't from neo-cons or alarmists or any such kind of people I got it from).

But what do the Russians say? We've just witnessed a de facto annexation by coming to the aid of passport citizens?

In many ways the border settlement was symbolic, but maybe the nature of the symbolism has not been widely understood.

The important thing was to agree a line on the map and the fact that such an agreement could be reached is probably more important than where that line is actually drawn. Afterall, there are no major populations or population centers exchanged in any of this, simply the re-allocation of wilderness from one country to another. Likewise the Russian concession of a little territory to China is another symbolic act in an area that was formerly Chinese in Imperial times.

It is however a basic and necessary confidence building measure, a firm foundation, rather like argueing over the final investors shareholding in a new company. Every body is keen to get the project up and running, but nobody will want to commit their Capital in any significant way until this basic issue of ownership is resolved.

Territory Ownership is less of an issue between nations as long as companies and workers are able to move across the borders and exploit opportunity.

As to your final question, I am no expert on Internal Russian affairs, but would be surprised if this was not a popular action among the civil populace.

 

[Grand Danois]

Hey Sampanviking,

Hehe, I think the Bear and the Dragon is rubbish...

It's just that I see that the Far East is the size of Europe, with only 6.7 million inhabitants today and half that mid-century; the border is now open for immigration and there is high connectivity (sea).

It is possible that as the Russians "abandon their fields" the productive and industrious Chinese will see opportunity, and they will come in numbers and not be a small enclave as in the SEA, but rather be the by far largest etnicity and dominate everything from business to ...

And from Moscows view, will those newcomers be most loyal to their new Russian idendity (and the central government) or their ethnicity and ancestry. And how will the the new Chinese/Russian citizens feel when the central governement profits from the resources of their region?


Chrom/Feanor,

It has already happened. Even if fertility rates hits 2.1 this year, Russia is already set to hit the 80 million mark. And even at a slow rate of improvement it is still 1.39... So it will be less than 80 million.

 

[Chrom]

It has already happened. Even if fertility rates hits 2.1 this year, Russia is already set to hit the 80 million mark. And even at a slow rate of improvement it is still 1.39... So it will be less than 80 million.

Would be true if not emigrations. Emigrants are major source of population in todays Russia.

 

[Feanor]

Hey Sampanviking,

Hehe, I think the Bear and the Dragon is rubbish...

It's just that I see that the Far East is the size of Europe, with only 6.7 million inhabitants today and half that mid-century; the border is now open for immigration and there is high connectivity (sea).

It's also much harsher in climate and much more difficult to develop. Hence why the population is so low.

It is possible that as the Russians "abandon their fields" the productive and industrious Chinese will see opportunity, and they will come in numbers and not be a small enclave as in the SEA, but rather be the by far largest etnicity and dominate everything from business to ...

And from Moscows view, will those newcomers be most loyal to their new Russian idendity (and the central government) or their ethnicity and ancestry. And how will the the new Chinese/Russian citizens feel when the central governement profits from the resources of their region?

If Russia provides them the opportunities to work and live their lives, I don't see much of a problem. After all the number of Mexicans in South California is staggering, yet we don't see people worrying about Mexico reclaiming the territory.

Chrom/Feanor,

It has already happened. Even if fertility rates hits 2.1 this year, Russia is already set to hit the 80 million mark. And even at a slow rate of improvement it is still 1.39... So it will be less than 80 million.

I'm not sure I understand where your calculations come from. Could you break it down in detail? I thought that if birthrates continue rising, and the population decline is effectively stopped via re-emigration, then it won't be a problem?

 

[Chrom]

I'm not sure I understand where your calculations come from. Could you break it down in detail? I thought that if birthrates continue rising, and the population decline is effectively stopped via re-emigration, then it won't be a problem?

As i understand it is basically number of womens multiplied by fertility rate and multiplied by life expectancy.

Either way, as i showed - Russia is not unique here. EU have about same problem.