Caucasian Powderkeg?
- Thread starter Feanor
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Of course they did, I'm sure they had draw up a dozen different plans for an invasion.
I don't know why he is so surprised!
In other news it looks like the Russian are going to seize Georgian Territory to use as bargaining chips/or to scupper any future chance Georgia would have of joining NATO.
I would just like to say what the Georgians are probably just realizing, they are on there own, its up to them to make the best peace they can with the Russians. The West will offer moral support and humanitarian assistance, but that's it. I'm sure the Russians don't want this to drag on too much longer, I imagine there just waiting for the Georgians to issue the magic words "we surrender" or some other version of that.
It kind of looks like this ' Russia has grabbed the skinny kid and is slapping him about the place demanding an apology for hitting Russia's even punier friend. France and the US, who think skinnys kind of OK are saying things like 'ah leave him alone, let them fight it out between themselves ect' but there not going to jump in, cause there trying to organise a game of football against the Iranian kids, and just to make sure they can kick ass they need the Russians on there team.
But if Russia gets Georgia on the ground and really starts to pound the crap out him, US will probably step in, after all he is the biggest kid in the playground, and what would the other kids think if he did'ent.....
But at the moment it just looks like Georgia's going to made apologize, given a dead arm and have his lunch robbed. But none of the other kids really mind to much, cause its play ground rules after all.
Wow, the US is really trying to harm its relations with Russia, isn't it?
The US will regret it later, of course. Maybe they're looking out for Western Europe? That's the only explanation to the harsh response of the US toward Russia.
It's also funny that the US envoy said that because Israel also had drawn up the plans for the 2006 invasion of Lebanon in the case of a Hezbollah attack way before it happend and showed it to European and American diplomats.
I heard no words coming from the US criticizing this.
The Russians already bombed it.
This conflict will harm Russia far more than the US. One can't overestimate the fact that this is the first time since 1979 that Russia has invaded another country. It has invaded one of the few U.S allies with troops in Iraq. It has sent a terrible message to its FSU neighbours. Now they will either fear russia and cower and give into it. Or they will turn further to the US/EU or China to provide protection against russian aggression. China can't be very happy that Russia is pretty much ruining their olympic celebrations. And are calling for a ceasefire as well. In a rare case of China, EU, and the US actually agreeing on something! Don't underestimate the chinese influence in the FSU nations bordering it.
Expect the Russian Black Sea Fleet to be kicked out of the Ukraine very soon. And NATO membership will be fastracked for the Ukraine.
Expect all opposition to ballistic missile shields to evaporate in Poland, and Poland to receive Patriot missiles as well as other military aid soon.
Hopefully we will see an increase in European military budgets now that they reawaken to the fact that Russia is becoming increasingly aggressive again.
The attack on georgia is not an isolated act. The resumption of russian strategic bomber patrols, the cat and mouse games with US carriers, it is all meant to send a message.
Russia will retake China as the main strategic threat to the US again, Cold war II began on the 08/08/08.
Expect the Russian Black Sea Fleet to be kicked out of the Ukraine very soon. And NATO membership will be fastracked for the Ukraine.
Expect all opposition to ballistic missile shields to evaporate in Poland, and Poland to receive Patriot missiles as well as other military aid soon.
Hopefully we will see an increase in European military budgets now that they reawaken to the fact that Russia is becoming increasingly aggressive again.
The attack on georgia is not an isolated act. The resumption of russian strategic bomber patrols, the cat and mouse games with US carriers, it is all meant to send a message.
Russia will retake China as the main strategic threat to the US again, Cold war II began on the 08/08/08.
Background:
Since the defeat, some years previously of the Byzantine forces at Manzikert
in 1071, the northern territory has been Asiatic Muslim world all over the
centuries. Until 1936 (the name republic of georgia) the name was republic
of the USSR.
Before a republic in eastern europe, occupying central and western
transcaucasia. Never been resided by russian, so there cannot be isolation
in.
I wonder how they translate the word "peace" in federation russia, between
slow progress.
Presidents of Finland and Russia have started the negotiation of Peace.
Asian.
Since the defeat, some years previously of the Byzantine forces at Manzikert
in 1071, the northern territory has been Asiatic Muslim world all over the
centuries. Until 1936 (the name republic of georgia) the name was republic
of the USSR.
Before a republic in eastern europe, occupying central and western
transcaucasia. Never been resided by russian, so there cannot be isolation
in.
I wonder how they translate the word "peace" in federation russia, between
slow progress.
Presidents of Finland and Russia have started the negotiation of Peace.
Asian.
windscorpion
New Member
Gori has fallen according to some media (who get their info off the Georgians) or hasn't according to Russian sources, the Russians definitely have moved into central Georgia though from Abkhazia at least. It looks like the Russians want regime change.
This is getting scary, I really feel we're into the unknown now. My feeling is if the US steps in it could trigger a wider conflict.
Yesterday if you asked me if the US would get involved, I'd have laughed, now I'm not so sure.
At this stage regime change is the best outcome for the Russians, but I'm not sure the US will tolerate that.
Bush is giving a statement in 10 minutes....should clear a few things up.
Russian MOD confirmed russian troops entered and leaved (lol?) Gori and Senaka after clearing them off Georgian military troops. Seems russian MOD is quite open in commenting situation, but have steady 12-16 hours delay to real time. So we can expect all news from russian MOD is delayed for that time, and Senak was really taken about 12-16 hours ago.
P.S. Contrary to some members here, i'm pretty sure this adventure will have surprisingly little effect on international relation short-term. In long term everything will be depended on following steps of Russia - so we can also well say little effect long-term - specifically from this conflict, if we dont view it as first step of some greater chain of events.
P.P.S. I was clearly wrong thinking about cease fire after 2 days. I greatly overestimated possible international pressure on Russia - the real reaction was quite laid. I also either greatly underestimated capabilities of russian army or overestimated Georgian army. Most likely both. Georgian army commanders were crazy it seems, and they achieved surprisingly little given they forces.
At the end 2nd day russian army had about 7.000 troops in Ossetia, Georgians should have at least 16.000 well-equipped professionals there, with comparable amount of heavy technic. Of course, they lacked air support. But russian air wing was also less than adequate, especially given absence of russian helos due to lack of airfields.
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Why would you be surprised with this outcome, and just amagine, they did it with secondary land equipment due to owning the sky and airwaves. If you take away your opponents command and control topped off with total dominance in the air then your opponent is thru. A classic Airland Battle Doctrine.
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Very interesting, this in fact does add to some troublesome issues that the rest of Europe could have, especially with the cost of fuel and maintenance.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Hmmm. Europe was dependent on imported energy before "globalization". So what's the difference now? IIRC 27% percent of gas consumption in EU is imported from Russia. If Russia ceases exporting, then there's no money to fund the war machine. Simple, 3/4 of growth in Russia since the post Soviet low has been in the energy sector. Not a diverse economy. Russia needs the cashflow and mfg from EU.
Using energy as a weapon is a Damocles sword. Do it for serious once...
Exactly. But everyone should also remember - it is double edged sword. If EU refuses to buy Russian oil & gas once - Russia could relink it to China and Japan. And it could be quite hard for EU to change oil routes back...
Patsfan86
New Member
Bush just spoke at White House.
Bush tells Russia to reverse course in Georgia
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush told Russia on Monday to end its military action in Georgia, calling Moscow's push into the smaller country an unacceptable invasion of a sovereign state.
"Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century," Bush said.
"There is evidence that Russian forces may soon begin bombing the civilian airport in the capital city. If these reports are accurate, these Russian actions would represent a dramatic and brutal escalation of the conflict in Georgia," he told reporters at the White House after returning from China.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSWBT00953920080811
Bush tells Russia to reverse course in Georgia
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush told Russia on Monday to end its military action in Georgia, calling Moscow's push into the smaller country an unacceptable invasion of a sovereign state.
"Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century," Bush said.
"There is evidence that Russian forces may soon begin bombing the civilian airport in the capital city. If these reports are accurate, these Russian actions would represent a dramatic and brutal escalation of the conflict in Georgia," he told reporters at the White House after returning from China.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSWBT00953920080811
Nope. Russia has amassed huge foreign reserves with practically no government debt. It can block energy supplies/minerals/timber etc couple of years to EU but still survive because it can import retail goods things from China/Vietnam/SK/NK. Russia companies hold now extends to NK/Central Asia/Mongolia all the way to North Africa. Russia controls airline/train/road routes.Hmmm. Europe was dependent on imported energy before "globalization". So what's the difference now? IIRC 27% percent of gas consumption in EU is imported from Russia. If Russia ceases exporting, then there's no money to fund the war machine. Simple, 3/4 of growth in Russia since the post Soviet low has been in the energy sector. Not a diverse economy. Russia needs the cashflow and mfg from EU.
Using energy as a weapon is a Damocles sword. Do it for serious once...
Just look at railway. Almost $45b of revenues .http://rzd.ru/wps/portal/rzd. soon controlling $2t worth of trade.
Remember its direct investment in factories not portfolio investment in stocks and bonds. because rising wages can afford those products.
EU situation is completely hopeless both militarily and economically. how can beggers become chosers.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Funny thing, the word I was looking for was actually double-edged, not Damocles.
Quite frankly, Saakashvilii is a fool for having jumped into the bear trap with both his legs. However if Russia pulls a Sudetenland 2008 as it looks it will do, then it will be very hard to partner up with Russia on anything that matters in the future. Particularly energy and technology.
Btw, relatively easy to shift away from gas - it is primarily used for electricity generation. Oil is antoher matter. However the Russian fraction of consumption is less than the gas fraction and can more easily be acquired from the world market.
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