Caucasian Powderkeg?

[drandul]

Hello,

I have a few questions about the recent events in S.Ossetia :

On BBC I just heard a report saying that relations between Russia and Georgia are worsening to the point that the Russian army may push further south, past S.Ossetia, given that they have not yet made it clear the extent of the "punishment" they want to give Georgia for sending it's forces into S.Ossetia. It was being asked on the news wether Georgia had "bitten off more than it could chew". What are the chances of this happening ?

Chances are depends on behaivor of Georgian leaders. Right now there is no point for land operation outside Osetian territory for Russian forces.- Only air suppresion of active and support positions and facilities in Georgia. Russia wants to reduce impact of that military operation on civilian peoples life in Georgia.

Also, I heard that if the current situation escalates further, then the Georgian Olympic team may withdraw from the Olympics as a sign of protest. Do you think this move ( which seems purely political to me ) will have ANY effect on the current situation ? Sorry to get the Olympics invilved into this thread, but I wanted to confirm what was being said in the news.

I realy hope not. Olimpic games is outstanding event for mankind - not so many events unites averybody. It was kind of crime to start all that mess in that time. Lates news i heard that Russia's Natalia Paderina and Georgia's Nino Salukvadze hugged after winning Olympic silver and bronze medals, respectively, in the women's 10-meter air pistol competition. - Seems normal people never looking for war - only pushed by mad politics.

One last question : Reports in the news say that most of the civilian casualties in the zone are being caused by the Georgians, not the Russian military. One civilian witness on TV said that the Georgians are flooding basement hiding places for civilians with water, thereby forcing them out into the open and causing their deaths. At the same time, the president Saakashvili claims that he saw Russian bombers swoop in low to target concentrations of civilian cars, and is certain that the civilian casualties are being caused by the Russian offensive. Would anyone like to shed any light on these claims, in order to let us know who's right or wrong, please ?

Thanks.

The only reason why Russia got involved in that mess - huge civilian casulties in Osetia. - Number of 2000 dead apeared after 1-st day of Georgian operation in Osetia. If Some ones opens fire with MLRS in direction of a city I doubt he expects some ones stays alive there. Tshinvali was compleatly ruined even before Rusian forces apeared on Osetian border. Georgia Used MLRS (Multiple Lounch Rocet Systems), heavy artillery and Su- 24 in civilian districts of Tshinvaly.

 

[tx038]

From Fox News:

BEIJING — President Bush has sharply criticized Moscow's harsh military crackdown in the former Soviet republic of Georgia, saying the violence is unacceptable and Russia's response is disproportionate.

The United States is waging an all-out campaign to press Russia to halt its retaliation against Georgia for trying to take control of the breakaway province of South Ossetia.

Bush, in an interview with NBC, said, "I've expressed my grave concern about the disproportionate response of Russia and that we strongly condemn the bombing outside of South Ossetia."

Earlier, Vice President Dick Cheney said that "Russian aggression must not go unanswered, and that its continuation would have serious consequences for its relations with the United States."

I have been watching this thread with great interest and I am greatly appreciative of the reporting done by everyone and the translations supplied during this skirmish.

The reporting we get here in the US tends to be quite slanted in so many opposing directions (depending upon whom you listen to) that it is nearly impossible to dredge any truth from the cauldron of crap.

Not to insinuate in any way that common sense is actually a part of world affairs, I have some curiosity upon what others think of the following:

Since the Georgian president was educated in the US and is a lawyer, it would be 100% insanity to put his country into the position they are in without checking in with his political connections in Washington beforehand. This would be the common sense thing to do, right? IF this is so and with some presumption that there was US knowledge of this going to take place, what could be the reasoning and where did it go wrong, IF it went wrong?

There was mention earlier of the Iran votes placed in the UN and that this might be placing some motivation toward Russia but I do not exactly see how this would come about.

If this is the wrong forum for this discussion, I offer my apologies. Please feel free to delete, move or alter as seen fit by the moderators. Thank you.

 

[Feanor]

Another little news update; there are still as many as 200 American advisors in Georgia. Also the Georgians denied earlier statements by their own press of bombings on a military base near Tbilisi.

Eckherl I didnt'see any era in the shot you posted, and the tank looks more like a T-55 then a T-72.

 

[roberto]

There will be a price that Russia may indeed pay, Ukrainian entry into NATO or a strong U.S presence there just a few examples.

I highly doubt there is any price for Russia to pay infact they will gain in long run as there will be less investment in energy infrastructure of Georgia due to unstable situation so Russia will have no competition for Gas Price it charges EU every year through long term contracts. And once this thing out of way Russia will start concentrating on Ukraine Eastern Regions and trying to create zone of influence there through pouring of huge money.
And Russia is not China that public boycott of its goods in retail store effects it. It sells commodities/consultancy to big corporations like Titanium/design to Boeing/Airbus. So publc pressure does not have any effect. All Russia has to do buying corporate exectives.
It is West/World material (commodities/food) & financial (debt level) weakness that Russia took advantage. Georgia certainly didnot took this big picture into consideration.

 

[Eeshaan]

President Saakhashvili first makes a mistake by using so much force against an area which he knows is completely supported by Russia, but underestimates the Russian response. And now, when Russia responds with more than he can handle, he's now "under seige" and Russia is the aggressor. Politically a win-win situation for him.

Now when Russia is considering going further than S.Ossetia, he says he can't fight the military might of Russia and asks for a ceasefire.

It would have been much better if he simply did'nt underestimate Russia's response and did not use so much force in a Russian-supported civilian area. Seems like he brought this upon himself IMO.

Also, I don't think he should have triggered this conflict during the Olympics.

 

[eckherl]

Another little news update; there are still as many as 200 American advisors in Georgia. Also the Georgians denied earlier statements by their own press of bombings on a military base near Tbilisi.

Eckherl I didnt'see any era in the shot you posted, and the tank looks more like a T-55 then a T-72.

Look at the track, roadwheels and turret a little more closely. Another give away is the bore evacuator placement on the maingun.

 

[eckherl]

I highly doubt there is any price for Russia to pay infact they will gain in long run as there will be less investment in energy infrastructure of Georgia due to unstable situation so Russia will have no competition for Gas Price it charges EU every year through long term contracts. And once this thing out of way Russia will start concentrating on Ukraine Eastern Regions and trying to create zone of influence there through pouring of huge money.
And Russia is not China that public boycott of its goods in retail store effects it. It sells commodities/consultancy to big corporations like Titanium/design to Boeing/Airbus. So publc pressure does not have any effect. All Russia has to do buying corporate exectives.
It is West/World material (commodities/food) & financial (debt level) weakness that Russia took advantage. Georgia certainly didnot took this big picture into consideration.

Good points and statement that you have added, Russia`s trump card with the Europeans is the natural gas and oil carrot stick so to speak and it will be interesting to see how the Europeans handle this or if they just turn a blind eye all together.

 

[drandul]

From Fox News:



I have been watching this thread with great interest and I am greatly appreciative of the reporting done by everyone and the translations supplied during this skirmish.

The reporting we get here in the US tends to be quite slanted in so many opposing directions (depending upon whom you listen to) that it is nearly impossible to dredge any truth from the cauldron of crap.

Not to insinuate in any way that common sense is actually a part of world affairs, I have some curiosity upon what others think of the following:

Since the Georgian president was educated in the US and is a lawyer, it would be 100% insanity to put his country into the position they are in without checking in with his political connections in Washington beforehand. This would be the common sense thing to do, right? IF this is so and with some presumption that there was US knowledge of this going to take place, what could be the reasoning and where did it go wrong, IF it went wrong?

There was mention earlier of the Iran votes placed in the UN and that this might be placing some motivation toward Russia but I do not exactly see how this would come about.

If this is the wrong forum for this discussion, I offer my apologies. Please feel free to delete, move or alter as seen fit by the moderators. Thank you.

It seems nobody expected such wide respond from Russian side. May be some local support was expected but not total control over air, ground and sea with support infrastracture suppression. Actually such well conducted operation is something unusual for Russian forces. Especailly if we take in account recent trainings and arm supplies of Georgian army by US, Ukrain and Israel.http://www.newsru.com/world/11aug2008/washington.html "It is difficult to assume that president of Georgia decided to start that war with South Osetia without approwal from Washington" - official Russian representatiove in Security Council of UNO

P/S - Have a look on that:SkyNews report on Gori - look thru right side of page - "Background" it seems that Russia doing some thing bad in some of US states..

 

[Eeshaan]

Now, lots of people are asking, what is NATO going to do/can do about this ?

I think, unless it escalates to a full-blown war between Russia and Georgia, there's not much that NATO can do. Till then negotiations are the only way foreward.

Also, just saw in the news that Ukraine has threatened to block Russian ports if the offensive goes south.

 

[KGB]

The only pipeline that gives the west access to the Caspian oilfields runs through Georgia. That pipeline was designed to avoid russian soil and is the primary strategic interest for both the US and Russia. Note that there are reports that the pipeline was already the target of a Russian airstrike.

Elimination of that pipeline, or Russian control over that pipeline via regime change or direct occupation of Georgia would place the Caspian oilfield output 100% under the control of Russia. Note that Russia has been on a campaign to control oil resources within it's sphere of influence: it booted Shell out of it's Far east oil wells, and is on a campaign to wrest control of BP assets in Russia by denying visas to foreign BP officials.

Forget about the rhetoric about civillian casualties, or loss of Russian peackeeper lives. It's about oil. My guess is that Russia's goal now is replacing the Georgian president with someone pro-russian. Given the stake that the US has here, something interesting is bound to happen.

 

[roberto]

Good points and statement that you have added, Russia`s trump card with the Europeans is the natural gas and oil carrot stick so to speak and it will be interesting to see how the Europeans handle this or if they just turn a blind eye all together.

It is not just Oil/gas/minerals but entire transportation links through trains, road and air between EU And Asia that Russia has hold on it. without Russian most of EU airlines will be become out of business.
Globalization is good for creating wealth/high living standard to large population but it also create huge dependencies interms of transporation and energy which were not present couple of decades back. so i dont think EU is going to standup in any meaningful way. and there is even more reasons that will take the whole another thread.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSL1414096220080314
BERLIN/FRANKFURT, March 14 (Reuters) - Germany and Russia have sealed an accord on moving Lufthansa Cargo's (LHAG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) regional transit hub from Astana in Kazakhstan to Krasnoyarsk in Siberia
Overflight rights for the cargo aircraft would be extended until the end of the summer flight timetable on Aug. 30, and Lufthansa would also be granted new overflight rights to South Korea, it added

 

[nevidimka]

Perhaps Ukraine's is being used by the US to stop Russia from going all out by getting its navy involved?

That wont suprise me.

Also.. whats wrong with Defense talk Forum? Why must I keep logging in to post message or view pics? Isn't 1 time enough? I'm still in the forum reading.. n every time i wanna see a pic or post message, I Have to log in.
It's becoming very annoying!

 

[windscorpion]

Wasn't there an option to keep yourself logged in or have you set cookies to off or something?

The situation seems rather confusing (fog of war et cetera). Last night i read that Gori was under attack from tank and artillery fire and the Georgians were digging in for a land battle but this morning the BBC reporter who was there didn't seem to mention that at all!

 

[FluffyThoughts]

I tend to avoid the UK main-stream media, but have always held the journalism of The Economist in high regard. The following undiplomatic description of the South Ossetian government shocked me when I read it:

On its own, South Ossetia is unlikely to last long. It is a tiny territory run by Russia’s security forces and a small and nasty clique of local thugs who live off smuggling goods and pocketing Russian aid money. According to a Georgian television channel, some 70% of Tskhinvali had been taken by government forces by the end of Friday morning. [Article dated: 08/Aug/2008]

[Source: http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?story_id=11909324&source=features_box2]

I still see Russia winning in the short-term, but considering the West (including Homer Simpson) revere this publication as the Anglo-Saxon bible, I expect Georgia to gain it's long-term ambitions. Has Russia been duped into playing the aggressor...?

As for the US flying Georgian troops into Tbilisi I can see no problems. Russia will have been informed via diplomatic channels.

I'd expect an AWAC to monitor the situation, with F-15C/D's to be available for escort if required. If the US quietly advise the Russians of an unscheduled training exercise involving Raptors in Turkish airspace, then the message would be signed, sealed and delivered.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

Just a sitrep.

Apparently, Georgia sent in a brigade to quell unrest in South Ossetia. Russia responded with ~ division-sized unit (possibly 19th MR) and other reinforced elements of the 58th army. Georgia reinforced this with another brigade (totalling ~7400 men and 100 tanks). Russia added at least 2,000 paratroops (possibly ~1 bn/bde from 76th, another from 98th) and 4th air army (su-24s and 25s). Russia's total exceeds 10,000 troops and 300 tanks. My estimate doubles that figure and does not include Ossetian fighters.

A russian MR division has ~150 tanks, 300 MICVs and 200 arty pieces.

South Ossetia is now in Russian hands. Abkhazia has also mobilised its armed forces for a breakaway. Both regions are now planning an independence declaration.

Casualties include >15-21 dead and 70-150 wounded Russian "peacekeepers" and at least 2 aircraft down (10 claimed by Georgia). No reliable numbers are indicated for Georgia but should be higher.

Basically, Georgia has lost the battle and is now focussing on maintaining territorial integrity (key is the capital, Tbilisi. Lose Tbilisi = lose georgia <- that's why the 2k Georgian peacekeepers in Iraq are now flown back to Tbilisi).

Consequences. In terms of defence, losing south ossetia is a defensive nightmare as it creates a huge bulge into Georgia and is very near the main railway line that connects east and west Georgia. There is no military option where Georgia can regain its lost territory.

Agree that the whole region is a powderkeg. Just north is Beslan and Chechnya which we are more familiar with.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

I'd expect an AWAC to monitor the situation, with F-15C/D's to be available for escort if required. If the US quietly advise the Russians of an unscheduled training exercise involving Raptors in Turkish airspace, then the message would be signed, sealed and delivered.

Its a bit difficult. An awacs over the black sea is just asking to be shot down "accidentally". Otherwise, the USAF needs Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Iran or Azerbaijan + Kazakhstan's approval for overflights which it doesn't have.

Sending back peacekeepers are one thing. Having fighters flying about is another.

The Turks aren't going to get involved. They didn't during Ops Iraqi freedom either and they certainly aren't going to risk a diplomatic encounter with Russia. Its going to take several days just to get a response by which time the whole things over already.

And the F22s are currently based in Alaska which makes it a little far to redeploy. The USAF won't risk F22s on an engagement that will reveal its capabilities too. So.... it won't happen not even with unmanned global hawks in Iraq (though that is a bigger possibility than F22s).

The US are probably monitoring this solely via satellite.

 

[BlackAdder]

I tend to avoid the UK main-stream media, but have always held the journalism of The Economist in high regard. The following undiplomatic description of the South Ossetian government shocked me when I read it:

On its own, South Ossetia is unlikely to last long. It is a tiny territory run by Russia’s security forces and a small and nasty clique of local thugs who live off smuggling goods and pocketing Russian aid money. According to a Georgian television channel, some 70% of Tskhinvali had been taken by government forces by the end of Friday morning. [Article dated: 08/Aug/2008]

[Source: http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?story_id=11909324&source=features_box2]

Some forther info on "South Ossetian Government"

Prime Minister since 2005. Yu.Morozov. Born Bashkiria, studied in Ufa, sent to Ossetia from Kursk, where worked as oil company manager.

Minister of Interior. M. Mindzayev. Commanded notorious Beslan hostage recovery operation in 2004. Moved to South Ossetia from North Ossetia immediately after Beslan fiasco.

Secretary of Security Council. A.Barankevich. Russian colonel. Born in Kaliningrad, fought in Chechnya.

Defense and emergency situation minister. V.Lunev. Russian general major. Formerly military advisor to Syria, sent to South Ossetia on December 26, 2007 from Perm.

Chief of National Security. A.Ivanov. FSB general major. Former chief of FSB in Mordvi autonomous republic.


Doesn't sound like a lot of national cadres. More like a motley crew of Russian army and FSB people.

 

[FluffyThoughts]

Response to weasel1962

Its a bit difficult. An awacs over the black sea is just asking to be shot down "accidentally". Otherwise, the USAF needs Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Iran or Azerbaijan + Kazakhstan's approval for overflights which it doesn't have.

Don't the US/UK have AWACs in situ in Iraq? I cannot see Turkey or the Azeris complaining on if these assets are sent to monitor movements in the South Caucusus (what with Kurd and Karabhk separatists being a wee problem).

And the F22s are currently based in Alaska which makes it a little far to redeploy.

How? The US has tanker-fleets, the Raptor has a high fuel-to-weight fraction. If the F-22 cannot deploy rapidly to areas-of-concern to the US - not least when it USAF has assets near theatre - what is the point of the aircraft?

I am sure that America knows how to talk-softly-but-carry-a-big-stick. It would be more sensible for the US to offer logistic support to it's/our Georgian allies then encourage the Russian's to think they can attack C-5/C-17 aircraft.

Dropping stick-like hints in diplomatic circles might help limit the bounds of this conflict. Unless your interests are tied into those of Gerhard Schroeder that is...?nfloorl:

 

[Feanor]

Look at the track, roadwheels and turret a little more closely. Another give away is the bore evacuator placement on the maingun.

I see. This is why you're a defense professional. Anyways do we know for sure the tank is Russian and whether the tank is a T-72 or not? I didn't know K5 was retro-fitted to T-72's. I thought they used K3.

Doesn't sound like a lot of national cadres. More like a motley crew of Russian army and FSB people.

That's because, surprise surprise, Ossetia isn't much of a real nationality. Any of those Russian's could be Ossetian by blood or relation. Not to mention that Ossetia is a tiny region that broke away with the help of Russian forces (unofficial help) in the early 90's. It's no surprise Russian commanders are running the show.

And another news update. Abkhazian forces have blocked the Kodori Gorge along side Russian units and are demanding that the Georgian forces put down their arms. A corridor is to be provided for the evacuation of those forces and any civilians who want to leave as Abkhazia re-establishes control over the region. Photos from newsru.com

And one from lenta.ru which reported the same story.

Also 3 more Russian peacekeepers died and 18 were wounded from Georgian artillery fire. Sporadic artillery and mortar fire is still hitting Ts'hivali. Small groups of Georgian forces are still in the conflict zone, while the bulk of the forces has left. More importantly there was another airstrike by the Georgian air force, which resulted in no casualties. The question is how many aircraft Georgia has left? Yesterday my estimate would have been no more then 2-3, possibly none, but apparently they're still active.

lenta.ru reports that more then 50 aircraft are being used for air strikes in Georgia. Why so few? The Caucasian MD alone has 3 Frogfoot and 2 Fencer regiments and apparently a regiment of Backfire's has been redeployed there also. This is in addition to the regiment of Su-27 and two regiments o MiG-29's which can technically also be used for air strikes.

Finally there are allegations that Ukraine supplied S-200 systems to the Georgians.

Here are some photos from rian.ru

The destroyed tanks in the last shot are allegedly Georgian.

 

[FluffyThoughts]

Question for Feanor

Is there a translation-issue with the term peace-keeper in regards to Russian and English? Surely peace-keepers do not implicitly takes sides?

Why are Russian forces assisting the Abkhazians to the detriment of the sovereign Georgians? [Interestingly, the Georgians have already being ethnically-cleansed from Abkhazia, all under the eyes of our "ethical" Russian friends.]

This is a de facto annexation. Strangely enough it also ends the dreams of Abkhazian independence. :unknown