Caucasian Powderkeg?

[Feanor]

I seriously doubt it would take that long. Russia doesn't need to occupy all of Georgia. Just to strike and paralyze the political leadership. Elements of the 76 Pskov and 7th Novorossiysk VDV divisions could do it in hours, and instead of an assault on Tbilisi perform a decapitating strike with overwhelming aerial support.

17:01 Edward Koykoytui (president of S. Ossetia) mentions that Ossetian and Russian volunteers helped push the Georgians back out of Ts'hinvali. It's still unclear whether the Georgians have left the conflict zone.

Also rian.ru reports members of the russian government throwing around genocide accusations as well as accusations of atrocities and intentional civiliand targetting in artillery strikes.

17:20 Russian MoD reports that Georgian forces are preventing the evacuation of injured (civilians? Ossetian military? Russian peacekeepers? they don't say!!!) from the conflict zone. No details are available.

17:20 Edward Koykoytui says that Georgians have until 18:00 hours (coincidentally the Georgian-declared cease-fire expires then! sic!) to leave Ts'hinvali (which they supposedly already left, or at least were leaving) or be destroyed. What authority he has to make such threats I don't know.

 

[Chrom]

Good reporting, cheers.

Russia won't do more than push them out of South Ossetia-protecting Russian troops is one thing, invading a Western Ally that has been involved in Iraq would overstep the mark-i'd say the Russians are already sailing close to the wind by bombing bases that 'house' American Instructors as you put it-you would not want the Americans having to 'protect' their troops would you?

Keep up the reporting.

US defending Georgia after what they do with Ts'hivali and smaller villages will end very bad for US. Europa will not support them.

Most likely US will try to blame Russia as much as possible but will not directly or inderectly interfere.

 

[Feanor]

The situation isn't over yet. Russia has performed bombing strikes, but it appears isn't ready for direct military action.


17:20 - Vladikavkaz is home to operational Russian HQ. rian.ru
17:20 - Georgian tanks firing point-blank at Russian peace-keepers HQ in the conflict zone. rian.ru
17:26 - 10 Russian peacekeepers are dead, 30 wounded. Georgians are executing Russian peacekeepers on captured positions. - lenta.ru and rian.ru

I honestly hope Russia continues the offensive and grinds Tbilisi into grey concrete powder.

17:34 Ts'hinvali deaths estimated in the thousands. For a region whose prewar population was ~20000 ....... !!!!!

From rian.ru Georgia continues to insist that continued Russian troop presence means war.

17:40 rian.ru Saakashvili announces that Russia has begun a war against Georgia.

So a quick close look. Onlookers mention around 100 Russian armored vehicles that passed through the tunnel at Roki. They included tanks, BMPs, BTRs and self-propelled artillery as well as MLRS systems. We're probably looking at ~1 motor-rifles batallion with 1 tank batallion and accompanying artillery units. Not much more. Those units need to be reinforced quickly. They're not enough to control even Ts'hinvali alone, no matter how much air support they can receive.

17:42 rian.ru Other Russian regions send notice of solidarity with S. Ossetia and offer support. What this support will actually be however is unclear.

I'm willing to wager a guess that most of the actual fighting was done by S. Ossetian forces, and against withdrawing (retreating) Georgian forces by Russian volunteers. The actual Russian forces (other then the peacekeeping unit) seem to not have been engaged in major combat. Or any combat for that matter. The panic they initially caused simply by being there seems to have died down. It's a small force and no additional forces are being deployed. Hence the angrier and angrier war rhetoric, after the initial panic, and in an attempt to hide just how afraid the Georgian government really was of a full-scale Russian strike. Given the politically difficult situation I don't know whether additional Russian units will enter the republic.

 

[BlackAdder]

I said it before... large scale Gerogian attack is in S.Osestia and Abkhazia interests. Saakashvili turned out to be much more stupid and uncontrollable than i thought.

P.S. Reports russians bombing Gori - a small city 25-30km near Ts'hinvali. Most Georgian command control and long-range artillery is concentrated in Gori.

Even during the Cold War both USA and USSR have been dragged into more conflicts by their client states than planned and executed by themselves. Korean War is the best example. Nor Stalin neither Mao wanted it, but when Kim The Elder started it they had no other option than to support him or risk losing their face.
The same goes here again. The criminal gang in Tskhinvali, which funds its retirement plans by counterfeiting foreign currencies, smuggling drugs, arms and prostitutes (I am sorry, guys, but your knowledge about tourism as the main source of income within the 15M$ South Ossetia budget are rather outdated), felt that they were losing even the half-hearted support they enjoyed in Moscow. So, as good and proper bandits they are (btw, cannot but compare them to the same underworld mob that rules now in Tiraspol, Transdniester breakaway Soviet Disneyland), they decided to get Moscow into a situation where VVP and his dummy Dima will have no other way as to throw its own support behind Kokoity and the rest of the gang.
And Misha Saakashvili decided to call their bluff by forcing, in his own turn, USA to back him. Which they do provided Georgians do not cross mutually agreed terms and scope of military engagement.
Simple as that.
And Georgians will be able to point out "Look, how can you trust those bloody Russians to act as peacekeepers and mediators, when they are the most intimately involved party? We need someone from outside to moderate future peace talks" QED. You get other parties involved and avoid talking only to Russia.

 

[ASFC]

@Chrom-lets have your evidence, what has Georgia done, apart from do what any other country do and stop seperatist/terrorists/freedom fighters from breaking up its country? If Georgia has been doing things to civilians it should not be lets have the evidence. You could easily flip this on its head and say this is all Russias fault-they are after all interferring in another country where they are not wanted for several years. This situation is fluid and i'm not going to take news reports at face value and base my opinions (from these news reports) on either side until the situation settles and we find out what is true and what is rumour-this gos for both sides of the conflict.

 

[BlackAdder]

The situation isn't over yet. Russia has performed bombing strikes, but it appears isn't ready for direct military action.


17:20 - Vladikavkaz is home to operational Russian HQ. rian.ru
17:20 - Georgian tanks firing point-blank at Russian peace-keepers HQ in the conflict zone. rian.ru
17:26 - 10 Russian peacekeepers are dead, 30 wounded. Georgians are executing Russian peacekeepers on captured positions. - lenta.ru and rian.ru

I honestly hope Russia continues the offensive and grinds Tbilisi into grey concrete powder.

17:34 Ts'hinvali deaths estimated in the thousands. For a region whose prewar population was ~20000 ....... !!!!!

From rian.ru Georgia continues to insist that continued Russian troop presence means war.

17:40 rian.ru Saakashvili announces that Russia has begun a war against Georgia.

Oh yeah... The only thing you need is using Muhammed Saeed al-Sahaf and Dr. Goebbels as reliable sources of information nfloorl: It's pathetic... Why don't they report that Georgians make shashlik from captured Russian peacekeepers? :

 

[Feanor]

Wonderful. Don't like it? Provide your own sources. Until then you have nothing but snide comments.

EDIT: Which smell of empty rhetoric and propaganda far more then the news reports. Note also my own accompanying commentary and attempts to analyze the situation. I'm not taking it all at face value. But you're provided nothing. So your ridicule is not only misplaced, it's rude and immature.

 

[Chrom]

@Chrom-lets have your evidence, what has Georgia done, apart from do what any other country do and stop seperatist/terrorists/freedom fighters from breaking up its country?

Lets put propaganda aside. Osetians are separatists of course - but it is not a crime. Osetians were never spotted as terrorists. They were never involved in large-scale drugs trade - simply there is unsuitable place to produce drugs.

From international law point of view both positions are justifiable - the Georgia right to preserve integrity and S. Osetia right to gain independence.

As nearly always in international relations, pure military force will decide who is right.

If Georgia has been doing things to civilians it should not be lets have the evidence. You could easily flip this on its head and say this is all Russias fault-they are after all interferring in another country where they are not wanted for several years. This situation is fluid and i'm not going to take news reports at face value and base my opinions (from these news reports) on either side until the situation settles and we find out what is true and what is rumour-this gos for both sides of the conflict.

Evidence? Even IF Georgians didnt committed ANY direct genocide against Osetians (which, given georgians past record, very possible) using heavy artillery, MLRS and tank in heavy populated city and villages certainly resulted in thousands civilians dead.

What is confirmed right now: about 40% buildings in Ts'hivali are destroyed, including city hospital which was full of wounded.

 

[merocaine]

@Chrom-lets have your evidence, what has Georgia done, apart from do what any other country do and stop seperatist/terrorists/freedom fighters from breaking up its country? If Georgia has been doing things to civilians it should not be lets have the evidence. You could easily flip this on its head and say this is all Russias fault-they are after all interferring in another country where they are not wanted for several years. This situation is fluid and i'm not going to take news reports at face value and base my opinions (from these news reports) on either side until the situation settles and we find out what is true and what is rumour-this gos for both sides of the conflict.

Chill, people chill.
90% of the South Ossetian population are Russian passport holders, and as far as I know it was only assimilated into Georgia during Soviet times.
If its good enough for Serbia and Kosovo, its good enough for Georgia and South Ossetia!
This is the real world, there are no innocents in this (apart from the civilians), the Georgians made a gamble, it looks like they lost, now they are facing the consequences. I just hope the Americans weren't irresponsible enough to encourage this adventure.

 

[Feanor]

The unit in Ossetia is elements of the 19th Motor-Rifles of the 58th Army according to rian.ru

Also apparently the Russian troops did enter combat and helped unblock the road on Zars. However no casualties are reported from that battle. Currently battles are continuing in Southern Ts'hinvali with Russian forces supporting the peacekeeping unit and S. Ossetians (both regulars and volunteers). Here's a link to the article.

http://rian.ru/analytics/20080808/150207027.html

 

[BlackAdder]

Wonderful. Don't like it? Provide your own sources. Until then you have nothing but snide comments.

EDIT: Which smell of empty rhetoric and propaganda far more then the news reports. Note also my own accompanying commentary and attempts to analyze the situation. I'm not taking it all at face value. But you're provided nothing. So your ridicule is not only misplaced, it's rude and immature.

It's one thing to quote sources whatever pathetic they may be, and it's one absolutely another thing to forcemeat them with your own fond wishes based on emotional responses towards exactly the same pathetic reports from pathetic news sources. As for "rude and immature", I refuse to take it seriously from the individual who just a minute ago wrote about wishing Russian go and level Tbilisi to a cement rubble. Any civilized being is able to compare my comments and your and make one's own judgment which of those belong to Medieval Ages.

 

[Feanor]

It's one thing to quote sources whatever pathetic they may be, and it's one absolutely another thing to forcemeat them with your own fond wishes based on emotional responses towards exactly the same pathetic reports from pathetic news sources. As for "rude and immature", I refuse to take it seriously from the individual who just a minute ago wrote about wishing Russian go and level Tbilisi to a cement rubble. Any civilized being is able to compare my comments and your and make one's own judgment which of those belong to Medieval Ages.

If you can't distinguish and emotional response to the news of Georgian atrocities filtering out of the conflict zone from actual cold analysis then perhaps you should spend a little more time thinking before you respond. Now do you have something on topic to add or are you just going to keep trolling?

EDIT: From newsru.com Sergey Lavrov (Russian minister of foreign affairs) accused Georgia of ethnic cleansings.

17:55 lenta.ru Russian planes bombed Georgian airfield.
17:58 lenta.ru 58th Army began artillery shelling of Georgian forces in Ts'hinvali.

Ok guys it's 7:08am and I have work. I was up all night writing this for you. I give webmaster and any of the mods permission to repost my little newsfeed onto the front page (if they deem it worthy of any attention ). Chrom or someone else who can read Russian please take over for me with the commentary. My five main sites that I use for info on this are

rian.ru who has a current events feed on the left had site
http://lenta.ru/articles/2008/08/08/ossetia/ and refresh this page every few minutes, they update often.
newsru.com they had a feed up initially but now only a few articles left. Still they report more of the political news around it
vzglyad.ru they have some good articles, though they've been quiet for about an hour.
kommersant.ru they're pretty slow but also managed to give a nice recap of the events.

I'll see if I can get on around 9:30pm Pacific Time after work.

 

[Chrom]

Official quote from russian foreign minister S. Lavrov: "There are reports about ethic cleansing in captured Osetian villages".

This is not a prove for anything, but at least accusations are official and not purely my fantasy.

 

[eckherl]

@Feanor

Good job on the reports, please keep them coming.

 

[windscorpion]

I don't see any problem with people adding their own opinions or biases, i thought we were all adults here and thus able to make up our own minds on things and research for ourselves.

I really can't see what the Georgian leadership thought they could achieve with this, gambling on the Russians not responding seems bad odds especially in these newly reassertive Kremlin days.

 

[merocaine]

Well done mate, I was wondering, I thought you might just be an early riser!

 

[eaf-f16]

It's one thing to quote sources whatever pathetic they may be, and it's one absolutely another thing to forcemeat them with your own fond wishes based on emotional responses towards exactly the same pathetic reports from pathetic news sources. As for "rude and immature", I refuse to take it seriously from the individual who just a minute ago wrote about wishing Russian go and level Tbilisi to a cement rubble. Any civilized being is able to compare my comments and your and make one's own judgment which of those belong to Medieval Ages.

How about we calm down now so the thread isn't locked?

Imagine citizens from your country were being intentionally targeted. Wouldn't you be mad also?

Georgia chose to go into S.Ossetia and kill Russian citizens. If they get beat into dust by Russia, then it is entirely the fault of Georgia.

 

[BlackAdder]

I don't see any problem with people adding their own opinions or biases, i thought we were all adults here and thus able to make up our own minds on things and research for ourselves.

I really can't see what the Georgian leadership thought they could achieve with this, gambling on the Russians not responding seems bad odds especially in these newly reassertive Kremlin days.

OK, sorry, if I sound repetitive, but it must be clear that Georgians didn't invest any hope into military solution of the stalemate they had in South Ossetia. What they wanted is to transform the conflict. From the Georgian-South Ossetian internal (territorial integrity vs national self-determination etc etc) one into Georgian-Russian one. And then to get Western powers to mediate between Moscow and Tbilisi. When you have an impartial broker with the clout of EU and US sitting at the round table you stand better chance than before.
As for Kokoity gang - they wanted once and for all to make Russia understand that they won't live under Georgian rule and go and annex them. Or risk losing Russian face in the entire Caucasus.
In fact, I don't envy nor Moscow neither Washington. It's a typical example of client states upping the ante and making people call their bluff. The only difference is that Washington has more room for manouevre here than Moscow.

 

[Chrom]

Georgia confirmed russian bombers damaged airport runway in Marneuli. Various reports of russians bombing Georgian positions near Ts'hinvali and few key military installations all over Georgia territory - like already mentioned Marneuli, Gori, Vaziani, Kareli.

 

[Chrom]

OK, sorry, if I sound repetitive, but it must be clear that Georgians didn't invest any hope into military solution of the stalemate they had in South Ossetia. What they wanted is to transform the conflict. From the Georgian-South Ossetian internal (territorial integrity vs national self-determination etc etc) one into Georgian-Russian one. And then to get Western powers to mediate between Moscow and Tbilisi. When you have an impartial broker with the clout of EU and US sitting at the round table you stand better chance than before.
As for Kokoity gang - they wanted once and for all to make Russia understand that they won't live under Georgian rule and go and annex them. Or risk losing Russian face in the entire Caucasus.
In fact, I don't envy nor Moscow neither Washington. It's a typical example of client states upping the ante and making people call their bluff. The only difference is that Washington has more room for manouevre here than Moscow.

Georgia done beautiful job to achieve that. I fear, now even Georgian allies will find it very hard to help Georgia.