Caucasian Powderkeg?

Feanor · Aug 8, 2008

Russia has so far provided no involvement in the conflict. Georgian tanks are all over Ts'hivali. If Russia doesn't act soon the conflict will be over, with Georgia as the clear winner. S. Ossetia has officially asked for Russian help. Russian peacekeeping forces are under direct attack in the region.

N. Ossetia has directed a column of 40 buses supported by Russian police officers for safety, to evacuate civlians from the conflict zone. S. Ossetian civilians, with Russian passports in hand, are asking for evacuation.

It looks like Putin and Medvedev will do nothing. I hate to bring politics into this discussion, but being an active anti-Putin (part of a communist group actually

merocaine · Aug 8, 2008

Looks like Georgia has taken Russia by complete surprise, making there move during the Olympics when Putin is away seems to have paralyzed Russian decision making. They have barely managed a coherent response. There aiming for a fait accompli, and it looks like there going to pull it off.
I guess Putin is better at bullying journalists than reacting to situations beyond his control.

Interestingly its hard to find any western papers talking about this, I guess it doesn't fit into the 'Bad Russians are threatening the Georgians again' stereotype, I guess it will take them a while to sort out there editorial legs, bless.

From some of those pic's it looks like the Georgians are making use of the US aid.
http://www.reuters.com/resources/r/...-08-07T224343Z_01_L7680404_RTRUKOP_0_PICTURE0

Feanor · Aug 8, 2008

Yeah Georgian forces are armed with western style weapons, though the tanks are advanced T-72 variants, and the aircraft and choppers are all Soviet-made. Unfortuntely that makes little difference. Unlike Abkhazia who has a fairly large and well prepared army, including even an airforce and air-defense force, S. Ossetia is poorly prepared for this. Without Russian support it will be over soon. Unfortunately news are slow to come and they're not looking good for the Ossetians.

EDIT: Ok so apparently vzglyad.ru reports that Abkhazia has begun troop movements to open up a second front against Georgia. S. Ossetia has apparently officially asked for Russian help.

EDIT2: Two batallions of Georgian reservists have been sent into S. Ossetia according to lenta.ru. Numerous other sources quote a complete mobilization declared by Saakashvili. General secretary of NATO asked Georgia to stop the war and to return to negotiations. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a press statement in which they said that they will not let Georgian aggression harm Russian citizens.

EDIT3: Georgia online reported a large group of Russian forces from the 58th Army that tried to cross the border into the conflict zone. Allegedly they were stopped by Georgian forces.

One last post of Ossetian resistance is left in Ts'hivali, in the region of Tsarz. Ossetian wounded are sent to Lower Zaramag near the Russian border. It looks like Georgia is on the verge of a decisive victory. :/

http://kommersant.com/photo/512/News/2008/08/08//KMO_100515_00024_1m.jpg

EDIT4: A cyber attack has allegedly been launched against S. Ossetian sites. Lenta.ru again. (they're the only ones who are running updates every 30 mins.) So apparently 70% of Ts'hinvali has been taken by Georgian troops and they're ready to open a humanitarian corridor, according to newsru.com as of 14:00 local time. Lenta.ru is reporting reinforcements from N. Ossetia moving into S. Ossetia as of 14:22 local time. Newsru.com also reports cossack veteran organization volunteers preparing to head into the conflict zone.

EDIT5: Mayor of Tbilisi announced that Georgia will have a 3-hour cessation of hostilities to allow refugees to escape through a safe corridor created near the village of Ergneti, 14:30 local time. Also Lenta.ru reports that Russian peacekeepers called the words of the Tbilisi mayor about a safety corridor, a lie. 14:31 local time.

merocaine · Aug 8, 2008

Keep up good work Feanor, for the non Russian speaker, your my main source of news on this!

Feanor · Aug 8, 2008

Thanks. Vzglyad.ru reports that the Georgian mobilization has begun in ernest, with reservists already gathering at the vallocated areas ready to support the main force. Vzglyad.ru also quotes Rustavi-2 reporting directly from under Russian air strikes in the region.

Just a speculation but perhaps Russian airstrikes have already begun, and Georgian reports are accurate, they just aren't enough to stop the entire Georgian army

Also Mr. Putin has said to George Bush that he thinks it will be difficult to stop the flood of volunteers to S. Ossetia. Medvedev has promised to punish those guilty of the deaths of Russian citizens in the conflict, but still no concrete actions again Lenta.ru

EDIT: Vzglyad.ru published a quick look at Georgian and S. Ossetian armed forces in the conflict. The Georgian Army has 32 000 professional soldiers, out of them 20 000 in the land forces. Four ot of it's 5 brigades have received American training. It has 165 T-72 tanks and 40 T-55 tanks, with reports (unverified) of Ukranian T-80 tanks surfacing. It also has over a hundred artillery pieces, 40 MLRS systems, and around 200 APCs/IFVs.

Against this S. Ossetia has only 2500 soldiers, with 15 tanks, and a handful of artillery APCs and air defense systems (mostly AAA).

Also channel one news in Russia reported that the Georgian cease-fire has taken effect starting 15:00 local time. However the alleged corridor for the refugee's leads into Georgia, while most of the refugee's are trying to get to the Russian border.

EDIT2: Medvedev accused Georgia of breaking international law. More words. Where are the actions? What's the 58th Army really doing? Where is the VVS? Disgusting.

Georgians report a second shot down Russian aicraft. The report is again by Rustavi-2 (Georgian news outlet). Story is on vzglyad.ru This is really starting to look like something is going on that we're not aware of. Also the victory that was announced earlier has not been backed up by any more statements from the Georgian press. The situation is more complex then I thought.

merocaine · Aug 8, 2008

If they are bringing in there reserves then they are planning to hold the area against a counter offensive. This could last a long time.
After last years anti democratic crack down in Georgia, I wonder just how much credibility Mikheil Saakashvili really has in Georgia. If Russia decides to prolong the issue, he could become unpopular very quickly.

Putins whole strong Russia line will start to look pretty hollow if he doesn't do something quickly, so I expect a harsh reaction, weather with the army or with 'Volunteers'...

Feanor · Aug 8, 2008

There are continued georgian allegations of Russian bombings. Are they happening or not is the million dollar question. If they are, then Russian ground forces are a matter of time, if they're not then Putin is really far more of a piece of sh*t then I thought of him (and believe me my opinion of him is far less then favorable). This is it, the moment of truth. Either Russia acts or it doesn't. If no ground forces come within the next 10-12 hours, the war will be over.

EDIT: It warms my heart. First channel in Russia reported Russian tanks heading towards Ts'hinvali. Commander of the N. Caucasian MD has interrupted his vacation and returned to his command post. Photo from newsru.com

Lenta.ru just supported this and also posted that Ossetian forces have regained control of the Zars road down which the Russian column is moving at 15:06 local time. At 15:29 local time Georgian forces began withdrawal from Ts'hinvali.

Rian.ru has just also reported the Russian column entering S. Ossetia, at 15:23 local time. Picture from rian.ru

And another photo from news.ru

EDIT2: newsru.com reports a Georgian ultimatum that the separatists have 3 hours to surrender. Supposedly these are the same three hours during which Georgia has ceased hostilities. No official response to the Russian troop presence has been reported. Also from newsru.com at 15:40 Georgian troops are withdrawing from Ts'hinvali.

Lenta.ru at 15:33 local time Russian aircraft are bombing Georgian positions.

merocaine · Aug 8, 2008

Its easy to start wars when you want, its a lot harder to end them when you want...
I wonder how far the Russians will try to push back the Georgians.
Keep those updates rolling in

Chrom · Aug 8, 2008

Photo from russian 1st channel TV, seems 2 Georgian tanks in Ts'hinvali:

http://vif2ne.ru/nvk/forum/files/Roman_alymov/(080808154439)_Tanks_burning.jpg

Reports Georgian withdrew from around Ts'hinvali. Seems after first russian large-scale aircraft strikes Georgia realized russians are serious this time and "covered" own troops withdraw with "cease fire proposal". This was about 2 hours ago.

Feanor · Aug 8, 2008

sorry for double post but my previous one was getting very long indeed. Georgians forces have pulled out of Ts'hinvali. Russian Su-24's are bombing Georgian positions, and Su-27's are in control of the sky. Following photos courtesy of lenta.ru

Russia has asked that Abkhazian forces stay out of the conflict.

As of 15:52 Lenta.ru reports that Ossetian militia has destroyed 4 Georgian tanks. It's unclear if these are total casualties or just a single incident.

15:47 Local time newsru.com Russian forces have entered Ts'hinvali, bombings of Georgian forces continue.

15:58 CPRF (communist party) and LDPR (the other major legal opposition party) want to call together Duma for discussion of the Ossetian crisis.

OFFICIAL RESPONSE

President Medvedev gave the order to defend Russian citizens residing in S. Ossetia. Russian troops are entering to relieve the peacekeepers and protect Russian citizens. Russian planes are bombing Georgian positions with 20 minute intervals. Reported by vzglyad.ru An impressive operational tempo, though it could be better imv for 3 regiments of 24 Su-25s each and 2 regiments of 24 Su-24's each.

15:59 rian.ru Russian forces entered Ts'hinvali.

At 16:00 local time Georgia threatened Russia with war; lenta.ru in a substantiation following a few minutes later, lenta.ru posted that Saakashvili said he will declare war on Russia if information of a Russian tank column in S. Ossetia turns out to be true.

Rian.ru Ministry of Defense official confirmation, forces are sent in to support and relieve peacekeepers in the conflict zones, no comments on Russian bombings. Photo from rian.ru

16:11 Local time, Rian.ru confirms, ministry of defense states that forces are sent in to back up peacekeepers in the region.
16:14 Local time, lenta.ru Russian tanks have entered Ts'hinvali.
16:16 Newsru.com reposts same Ministry of Defense statement as others. However official response obviously came post-factum, and only in response to filtering in news of Russian troops in S. Ossetia. The operation was kept secret down to the last moment. Looks like Caucus-2008 didn't go by for nothing.
16:19 EU wants to support equal talks between Ts'hinvali and Tbilisi. rian.ru
16:20 lenta.ru Georgia says Russian airstrikes hit base with American instructors. So now they're attempting to pull at all the political strings they have left. The Georgians remember how embarassing the previous defeat was during the 90's which left them with Russian forces basing on their soil for over a decade.
16:23 Russian airstrikes have hit a base at which American citizens were located. newsru.com
16:23 Ts'hinvali is emptied of Georgian forces, burning Georgian armored vehicles seen in the center of the city. newsru.com

Ok so a little substantiation. The base with American instructors on it is Waziani in the Tbilisi area, and two bombs were dropped. No casualties are being reported, which most likely means there weren't any.

merocaine · Aug 8, 2008

If it was'ent for you guys I would'ent have a breeze about whats going on, most western news agency's seem to be feeding of 24 hour old Georgian sound bites.
Well at least the narrative will be a little easier for them to digest now the Russians are doing the attacking!

At 16:00 local time Georgia threatened Russia with war; lenta.ru in a substantiation following a few minutes later, lenta.ru posted that Saakashvili said he will declare war on Russia if information of a Russian tank column in S. Ossetia turns out to be true.

That would be an incredibly stupid move an his part. It would give the Russians the excuse to smash the Georgian armed forces.
His best bet now would be to pull back to the border and negotiate.

Chrom · Aug 8, 2008

merocaine said:
That would be an incredibly stupid move an his part. It would give the Russians the excuse to smash the Georgian armed forces.
His best bet now would be to pull back to the border and negotiate.

I said it before... large scale Gerogian attack is in S.Osestia and Abkhazia interests. Saakashvili turned out to be much more stupid and uncontrollable than i thought.

P.S. Reports russians bombing Gori - a small city 25-30km near Ts'hinvali. Most Georgian command control and long-range artillery is concentrated in Gori.

eaf-f16 · Aug 8, 2008

merocaine said:
If it was'ent for you guys I would'ent have a breeze about whats going on, most western news agency's seem to be feeding of 24 hour old Georgian sound bites.
Well at least the narrative will be a little easier for them to digest now the Russians are doing the attacking!

Same here. All the news I am getting is from Feanor (thank you for the news reporting

).

merocaine said:
That would be an incredibly stupid move an his part. It would give the Russians the excuse to smash the Georgian armed forces.
His best bet now would be to pull back to the border and negotiate.

Saakashvili said that Georgia has a "small but efficient army" and the Georgians seem to genuinely think they could win. Of course if the Russians decide to dedicate more assets to the conflict, this "small but efficient army" could be largely neutralized by the day's end.

Also, can someone tell me what nationality the guy holding the M4 carbine is? Is he Georgian Special Forces?

The gun looks generally similar to SOCOM ones (without ACOG sight and alot of other things). It has different sight (EOTech I think) but has a forward grip attached to the handgaurd similar to US SOCOM ones.

Feanor · Aug 8, 2008

Ok so to sum it up. The Georgians had a well planned and flawlessly executed operation. They took out S. Ossetian forces and annihilated all resistance in several hours, avoiding a protracted battle. However they did not expect the Russian response. When it did hit, they withdrew without engaging Russian forces. VVS is still bombing with two bombs dropped on Georgian base of Waziani which houses American instructors and is located near Tbilisi.

As of 16:40 local time lenta.ru reported no more hostilities in Ts'hinvali.

EDIT: An eerie silence has fallen over the news outlets. For the last ~30 minutes nothing new came out. It seems that hostilities have ceased, however communications are bad. Phones and power is out, cellphones will be out too once their batteries run out. No casualty reports are coming out, no new information, not even any Georgian hysteria. Makes me almost nervous.

EDIT2: Ok so from kommersant.ru apparently the official justification on the Russian side is an open Georgian attack on the Russian peacekeeping forces in the area. Georgian troops are out of Ts'hivali however it's still unclear whether they've left the conflict zone and whether the original border will be restored. Also the article mentions again Medvedev's promise to punish those guilty of killing Russian citizens in the conflict zone. Whether this indicates a further advance against Georgia or not I don't know, I'm guessing Russia is just begging for Georgia to give the excuse for an all-out Russian attack.

16:58 Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs asks the rest of the world, the global community, to save them from Russia.

merocaine · Aug 8, 2008

EDIT: An eerie silence has fallen over the news outlets. For the last ~30 minutes nothing new came out. It seems that hostilities have ceased, however communications are bad. Phones and power is out, cellphones will be out too once their batteries run out. No casualty reports are coming out, no new information, not even any Georgian hysteria. Makes me almost nervous.

frantic negotiations?
The big question is weather the Russians will be happy with a Georgian withdrawal? Will the Russians decide to try and cripple the Georgian offensive capability, rather than see if the Georgians want another bite at the cherry.

Feanor · Aug 8, 2008

The Georgians are done. They're panicking. Read my latest update. They're begging for help. They know they bit off more then they could chew. Now they're ready to agree to practically any terms that will leave the current government in power. At least that's what it looks like to me.

EDIT: Sergey Lavrov reminded the Georgians that earlier this morning they called on Russia to act as real peacekeepers in the region, and said that's what Russia is doing. A little bit of new material by lenta.ru

merocaine · Aug 8, 2008

I don't think the Russians will be happy with a return to the stasis quo. They will want to extract maximum advantage from this.
How the Georgian President thought he could get away with this is beyond me.
He showed his Autocratic tendencies last year, in ordering this adventure he has shown himself to be stupid as well.

As to joining NATO, I think he might have dealt those dreams a fatal blow.

16:58 Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs asks the rest of the world, the global community, to save them from Russia.

How embarrassing!

windscorpion · Aug 8, 2008

Do you reckon the Russian army will remain in S Ossetia "while the situation remains tense" for the forseeable future? Great reporting btw on a very fast moving story.

Chrom · Aug 8, 2008

merocaine said:
frantic negotiations?
The big question is weather the Russians will be happy with a Georgian withdrawal? Will the Russians decide to try and cripple the Georgian offensive capability, rather than see if the Georgians want another bite at the cherry.

Most likely russians at very least will continue aircraft strikes against Georgian military installations until tomorrow to maximally punish them for aggression.

Further i wouldnt guess - everything is possible. But i think for large-scale ground attack against Georgia Russia dont have enough ground forces right now. At least week would be need to reallocate needed troops even for limited occupation of large part of Georgia. Up to month will be needed to allocate enough troops for Tbilisi assault.

As i said, i give 5% chance what russians will move to Georgian territory and 20% what russians will continue bombing Georgia tomorrow. 75% direct hostilities will end and Russia will begin full-scale diplomatic and economic war against Georgia, including all kinds of embargo.

P.S. Russian army will certainly remain in S. Ossetia for foreseeable future. Of course, not in current strength - 4-5 full battalions will be enough.

ASFC · Aug 8, 2008

Good reporting, cheers.

Russia won't do more than push them out of South Ossetia-protecting Russian troops is one thing, invading a Western Ally that has been involved in Iraq would overstep the mark-i'd say the Russians are already sailing close to the wind by bombing bases that 'house' American Instructors as you put it-you would not want the Americans having to 'protect' their troops would you?

Keep up the reporting.

Caucasian Powderkeg?

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