The early model AIM-54 Phoenix might have scored hits in the Iraqi-Iran war many years ago against basically fighters flying in the blind but not in modern warfare. A fighter pilot would have to make a mistake to be hit by one now the missile wasn't really design for that when it was new.
There will be no American invasion of Iran at best the nuclear reactor would be leveled.
Don't kid yourself if those rockets started hitting more targets and became more effective whole areas would be leveled. Those tactics work because the of scale the fighting Israel can change the scale in a heartbeat. The poor people of Lebanon who stay near anything Hezbollah controlled would and easily become targets if things got worse. The Hezbollah are never going to inflict more pain then Israel can give out don't think any different because your fooling yourself. All they do is hide behind the innocent who are actually from Lebanon and bring more death and destruction to the area. Until just the people from Lebanon and the Israeli's work this out with no outsiders it's doomed to fail. The Hezbollah are outsiders just like the Syrians or did the Israeli's take over one of there orange groves too. Israel isn't going away and the innocent people of Lebanon pay the price because of the Hezbollah and groups like them who could care less who dies. My entire adult life watching this on the news and for what useless, senseless killing, and mainly from people who don't even live or are from there! I not from region and realize it's much more complex then I'm describing it was just the way you mention the Hezbollah and how much trouble they gave Israel. There just another group imposing the will on people from Lebanon there's no difference then Israeli shells being fired at rocket launchers, there still being killed.
I don't think I'm underestimating Iranian air force capabilities I think there best weapon/aircraft are there Su-24s and I think it's there only asset. Face it if your don't buy new platforms in ten years what do you think your going to have?
I agree with the 2nd part. Yes, the Iranians need to modernize as the Tomcat and the Phoenix will remain potent for only so many years. The SU-24 Fencer is a good jet but in an AWACS environment, nap of the earth flying won't hide them anymore.
Actually, Middle Eastern studies was one of my hobbies. Hezbollah is a Shiite organization, supported by Iran since it is also a Shiite state. The Shiites in Lebanon are native to that country, just like the Sunnis and Druze. The Shiites used to have literally no power, and when Israel drove the PLO from Lebanon in 1979-80, the Shiites openly welcomed this "liberation" since the PLO and the Palestinians are majority Sunni. Things went sour when Israel decided to occupy southern Lebanon, where most of the Shiites lived, and that's where this conflict began...... in a nutshell.
I don't agree with many of Hezbollah's policies, especially since Israel withdrew from Southern Lebanon. However, objectively speaking, they are an irregular army and no irregular force will meet a well equipped and organized adversary on the battlefield. That would be suicide and expecting them to do so would be foolish. Hezbollah, as an irregular military force, is considered one of the best trained and equipped forces around. The Israelis paid dearly for underestimating them. For example, they nearly lost a frigate when Hezbollah attacked it with an anti-ship missile. Israeli soldiers returning from the front could barely believe how well equipped these guys were. Some compared their level of equipment to Israel's own well equipped special forces.
Granted, Israel could have tried leveling all of southern Lebanon but that really wouldn't have helped them. The thousands of civilian casualties would have given Hezbollah a huge propaganda victory and caused them little physical harm since most of them were protected in hundreds, if not thousands of hidden concrete underground bunkers all across southern Lebanon. I read an interesting assessment of Hezbollah's tactics written by several US generals, as part of a study, and they were very impressed. Interesting since the US military is not a sympathetic audience for Hezbollah as an organization.