CIA report: we are not attacking Iran for WMD only

Chrom

New Member
Evicted in 2005 with the US military kicked out by Uzbekistan - they got fed up with being pressured into this.

The US was seriously considering asking Syria for overflight rights in 1991. Does that make them allies?
Where i spoke about allies??? Why US need ANY allies to defeat Iran? US certainly dont need that, and all these asian countries certainly cant provide much military help EVEN if they would want. But embargoing Iran and allowing US overflight/bases - is something of another matter. THIS is very possible.
Increasing the number of "partners" in the socalled CoW? Most of those "partners" (all but 4 or 5) provide between ... well, 20 and 200 soldiers. What good are those for?
Generally, they create nothing but problems for US there - from military point of view. But politically US absolutely need them to participate, showing what it is not just US who occupy Iran - but US with rest of "civilized" world.
 

Firehorse

Banned Member
Those states were under the Soviet system for only few decades, and even then they were "states within the State"! Before Moscow, there was Kiev, and parts of today's Ukraine were part of Poland & Ottoman Turkey for a long time. Central Asia had many ancient kingdoms as well- with links to China, India, Persia & Arabs. All are integral part of our "civilization"!
IMO, there will be no occupation of Iran- if a new conflict starts, it will be by air, sea, and proxys!
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
ArmyAmy just consider that the current aruond 20 000 troops surge in Iraq is unsustainable. How many men do you plan to invade Iran with? :)
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Sure. But as is those troops are tied down in extensive security operations. In fact you don't have enough troops on the groud in Iraq and Aghan as is. You propose to take some of those troops to invade Iran and then somehow there will be enough troops everywhere?
 

IrishHitman

New Member
The only way the US could have Iran is if it had the full deployment of the large EU countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Britain, Greece) AND prepared a draft.

Which, as anyone with a brain will tell you, wouldn't happen.

Iran is considerably larger and more rugged that Iraq, even with the above measures in place, doubt whether the US could hold Iran would remain.
It would get better as time went on due to lack of weapons (Iran currently supplies the Iraqi insurgents). Initially the guerrilla warfare that would take place would cause politically unacceptable death tolls for the West.

There simply isn't enough troops to bring Iran under control without inhumane tactics.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
We certainly are parking a lot of troops right next store though.
Your troops next door are rather busy. Iran has 3 times the population of Iraq, much more than 3 times the area, the two largest ethnic groups (the majority Farsi & the Azeris) are loyal to the state, if not the current president, the terrain is much more rugged (there are forested mountains, for example), it isn't broke as a result of a decade of sanctions, & its military equipment is in fairly good shape.

The USA can bomb Iran flat. It can't conquer & hold Iran, without introducing measures (e.g. large-scale conscription is the only way it could raise the manpower) which would be politically unacceptable at home. An invasion wouldn't be like Iraq in 2003, with generals negotiating by mobile phone how to surrender, & people welcoming the fall of the regime en masse.
 

Sea Toby

New Member
I think as long as the Iranians allow UN inspectors in and cooperate with the UN, the USA will do nothing. This is where Saddam Hussein blew it. Saddam Hussein would still be in power in Iraq if he allowed the UN inspectors to inspect. In other words, don't thread on the UN.
 

Chrom

New Member
I think as long as the Iranians allow UN inspectors in and cooperate with the UN, the USA will do nothing. This is where Saddam Hussein blew it. Saddam Hussein would still be in power in Iraq if he allowed the UN inspectors to inspect. In other words, don't thread on the UN.
He allowed inspectors. These inspectors then openly said how half of them were CIA agents and specifically choosed most sensitive for Iraq defense places. No wonder Saddam was very cautions about allowing inspectors literally EVERYWHERE, even in places clearly not connected to WMD - like SAM sites and HQ bunkers.
 

Cooch

Active Member
He allowed inspectors. These inspectors then openly said how half of them were CIA agents and specifically choosed most sensitive for Iraq defense places. No wonder Saddam was very cautions about allowing inspectors literally EVERYWHERE, even in places clearly not connected to WMD - like SAM sites and HQ bunkers.
Firstly......
That is an interesting proposition, but one that should be supported by reference to source material.

Secondly,,, if you wish to verify that someone is NOT hiding something, then you DO have to look "everywhere". Does anyone really think that it is possible to verify that Saddam didn't have WMD by only looking in the most obvious places?

Sceptically............ Peter
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
HQ structures and SAM sites are unlikely to be WMD storage facilities. Given how few weapons that can be classified as WMD's have been found it's probably safe to assume that there weren't enough for any major practical application in the first place.
 

DarthAmerica

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Your troops next door are rather busy. Iran has 3 times the population of Iraq, much more than 3 times the area, the two largest ethnic groups (the majority Farsi & the Azeris) are loyal to the state, if not the current president, the terrain is much more rugged (there are forested mountains, for example), it isn't broke as a result of a decade of sanctions, & its military equipment is in fairly good shape.

The USA can bomb Iran flat. It can't conquer & hold Iran, without introducing measures (e.g. large-scale conscription is the only way it could raise the manpower) which would be politically unacceptable at home. An invasion wouldn't be like Iraq in 2003, with generals negotiating by mobile phone how to surrender, & people welcoming the fall of the regime en masse.
The USA has ZERO interest in "invading and occupying" Iran nor would that be necessary if Iran became a threat. The primary interest the USA has with Iran is not allowing it to become a regional hedgemon or nuclear power while simultaneously courting a strategic alliance with Iran.


-DA
 

Marc 1

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
HQ structures and SAM sites are unlikely to be WMD storage facilities.
And that is why you do need to inspect those facilities. Tell me if you were trying to hide WMD's would you hide them in a large facility marked "WMD storge Bunker" or seek somewhere else less likely for them to be found. Remember the UN inspectors were looking for not just the weapons but personnel and papers on the designs as well. HQ structures could hold plans/ dispositions etc. Remember, Sadam was desperate to hide these damn things - the fact that conclusive proof the world and the UN were seeking - (large number of weapons) were not found is not conclusive proof that they did not exist.

Richard Butler gave a very insightful interview years later where he described being delayed entry at the front of installations whilst large numbers of covered vehicles were smuggled out the back. They would forcast to the Iraqi administration that they intended to inspect facility X (which under the 'rules' they were constrained by they were supposed to do), then try to switch the inspection location to facility Y en route to X. If I remember correctly there were a total of 200 inspectors - half of whom were administrators/admin people etc. The remaining inspectors were so closely shaddowed (under the pretense of being protected) that they had virtually no chance of finding the damn things anyway. It was another UN farce.

Toward the end of the inspection process or very early on in the war quite a few convoys of trucks aparently disappeared over the border into Syria (tracked to the border by airborne recon assets or satellites IIRC). Richard believes this was when WMD left Iraq (maybe they weren't developed sufficiently to employ them?). Now Iraq and Syria are not exactly bed buddies, but when "The Great Satan" is knocking at your door and you have the ability to acquire WMD's that someday in the future may come in handy, you'd open your border as the Syrian's did.

So whilst the there were never any WMD found Richard believes they found enough circumstantial evidence with their inspections to suggest they were developing them.
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Toward the end of the inspection process or very early on in the war quite a few convoys of trucks aparently disappeared over the border into Syria (tracked to the border by airborne recon assets or satellites IIRC). Richard believes this was when WMD left Iraq (maybe they weren't developed sufficiently to employ them?).
Bullshit - Iraq wasn't developing WMD during that time, and nobody suspected them of it either. The WMD certain nations suspected Iraq of were the ones they supposedly retained instead of destroying them.

C-Weapons degrade over time. Stall production for enough time, and you'll have no usable agents left to use. You don't produce C-weapons in industrial numbers in a little shack behind the house. Iraq had no facilities left to produce them.

There's more important stuff that Syria could have gotten from Iraq at that point. Money, Missile Technology (in particular regarding rocket motors), certain personnel, aircraft spare parts, precursor chemicals.

Sure, maybe a few hundred or thousand C shells. But that's nothing of worth. Syria produces chemical weapons of its own, has been doing it at least since the 90s.

At this point, btw, Richard Butler wasn't involved with UNSCOM at all anymore, with zero insight into the data at that point of time. He was rather criticized for a number of actions in the late 90s as well, especially his "cooperation" with the US State Department, and US Intelligence Agencies. See in particular criticism by his deputy Eric Fournier. There was good reason he was removed from UNSCOM then.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
The USA has ZERO interest in "invading and occupying" Iran nor would that be necessary if Iran became a threat. The primary interest the USA has with Iran is not allowing it to become a regional hedgemon or nuclear power while simultaneously courting a strategic alliance with Iran.


-DA
That would be better directed at the person who hinted that the USA might be interested in invading Iran, rather than one of those who disagrees with him.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
And that is why you do need to inspect those facilities. Tell me if you were trying to hide WMD's would you hide them in a large facility marked "WMD storge Bunker" or seek somewhere else less likely for them to be found. Remember the UN inspectors were looking for not just the weapons but personnel and papers on the designs as well. HQ structures could hold plans/ dispositions etc. Remember, Sadam was desperate to hide these damn things - the fact that conclusive proof the world and the UN were seeking - (large number of weapons) were not found is not conclusive proof that they did not exist.

Richard Butler gave a very insightful interview years later where he described being delayed entry at the front of installations whilst large numbers of covered vehicles were smuggled out the back. They would forcast to the Iraqi administration that they intended to inspect facility X (which under the 'rules' they were constrained by they were supposed to do), then try to switch the inspection location to facility Y en route to X. If I remember correctly there were a total of 200 inspectors - half of whom were administrators/admin people etc. The remaining inspectors were so closely shaddowed (under the pretense of being protected) that they had virtually no chance of finding the damn things anyway. It was another UN farce.

Toward the end of the inspection process or very early on in the war quite a few convoys of trucks aparently disappeared over the border into Syria (tracked to the border by airborne recon assets or satellites IIRC). Richard believes this was when WMD left Iraq (maybe they weren't developed sufficiently to employ them?). Now Iraq and Syria are not exactly bed buddies, but when "The Great Satan" is knocking at your door and you have the ability to acquire WMD's that someday in the future may come in handy, you'd open your border as the Syrian's did.

So whilst the there were never any WMD found Richard believes they found enough circumstantial evidence with their inspections to suggest they were developing them.
So in other words it was a choice between national security and international honesty. After all are you seriously going to let people go through all your top secret facilities, your documents which could include mobilization plans, deployment plans and procedures, and could include maps of everything, from SAM sites, to storage depo's? It was ridiculous to demand that kind of openness and naive to expect it. Finally WMD's have been found in Iraq. Just not enough of them to justify the accusations thrown around before the invasion, and especially the implications of the accusations.
 

Marc 1

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
So in other words it was a choice between national security and international honesty. After all are you seriously going to let people go through all your top secret facilities, your documents which could include mobilization plans, deployment plans and procedures, and could include maps of everything, from SAM sites, to storage depo's? It was ridiculous to demand that kind of openness and naive to expect it. Finally WMD's have been found in Iraq. Just not enough of them to justify the accusations thrown around before the invasion, and especially the implications of the accusations.
Well summarised. The whole thing was a farce from beginning to end - a typically poorly planned and executed UN 'gesture'. It didn't help that so many of the inspectors and so much of the impetus was from the US. If there was any chance of these inspections being successful the force needed to be composed of personnel from countries not part of the 'coalition of the willing' for an independent assessment (neutral europeans, africans, south americans south east asians etc answerable to the UN only). Even then given their numbers it is doubtful they would have been successful.
 

Chrom

New Member
Firstly......
That is an interesting proposition, but one that should be supported by reference to source material.

http://www.worldpress.org/Asia/2405.cfm
Can you explain your role in the GATEWAY program?

GATEWAY was really a C.I.A. operation. It was set up in Bahrain, the "gateway" to Iraq for all inspectors. Weapons inspectors stayed in Bahrain, came through Bahrain and were briefed and debriefed [by GATEWAY officials] in Bahrain and the U.N. co-operated with this program.

Australia was asked to join the program and I went to set up the Australian aspect of it and for a while there were two British officers also attached to GATEWAY.

The information gathered was used to help the U.S. (and Australia and the U.K.) brief the U.N.. We were the collection point for the information. One could ask why did you need a collection point but [it was necessary] especially in the early days when UNSCOM and U.N. inspectors weren't very well organized and didn't really have such a collection point themselves.

The information GATEWAY collected was then put together with other intelligence collected by other means; by satellites or whatever. So some details that the inspectors thought may not have been important would be added by the GATEWAY team to other information which might [prove to be] quite useful - in fact in some cases very useful — in putting together missions to target particular facilities.

All of the U.N. teams would meet at the GATEWAY headquarters [in Bahrain] and the C.I.A., and myself, would brief the teams before they went in on what to expect and if they going to inspect a particular facility, what to expect of that particular facility.

Wouldn't the C.I.A.'s involvement have compromised the U.N. inspectors?

It did and yes, some of the information that was collected may have been used for other purposes and of course it was the U.S. not the U.N. [who ran GATEWAY]. But it was agreed by the U.N. to co-operate with the program, there was no prohibition in [appearing before GATEWAY].

A lot of countries were interested in what Iraq was doing not just the U.S. The Russians and the French and other countries were up to the same thing it's just the U.S. had this team there called GATEWAY.

Fellow weapons inspector Scott Ritter has accused UNSCOM Chairman Richard Butler of allowing Western intelligence to hijack the weapons inspection process for their own information collection purposes. In particular, Ritter refers to the installation of a "black box" in UNSCOM's Baghdad headquarters. What is your opinion?

It was questionable about whether we should have ever installed the black box. We [the U.N.] collected intelligence on Iraq. We flew U2 spy aircraft — with U.S. pilots but under UN markings — over Iraq collecting intelligence.

That was approved by the U.N. Security Council.

However, when things became difficult, particularly in 1998 in the latter stages of UNSCOM, although we'd already uncovered a lot in Iraq, there were still unaccounted for materials, equipment and even weapons.

As Iraq was not co-operating, UNSCOM — the weapons inspectors — took [the intelligence gathering] one step further and installed eavesdropping equipment in our headquarters, listening devices so we could pick up Iraqi communications.

Unlike the U2 aircraft, this had not been approved by the Security Council.

Secondly,,, if you wish to verify that someone is NOT hiding something, then you DO have to look "everywhere". Does anyone really think that it is possible to verify that Saddam didn't have WMD by only looking in the most obvious places?

Sceptically............ Peter
This is very wrong proposition, which can be ( and certainly was) used to conduct all kind of misbehavior.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0208/S00006.htm
worth reading as well.
 
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