The 1st Arab nation to go nuclear?

[Firehorse]

In the last two years, more than a dozen Arab states have announced plans to pursue nuclear power programs. This has raised concerns that such countries are interested in developing nuclear weapons. ..
UAE sets out to become first Arab nuclear state
The UAE, despite having some of the most abundant hydrocarbon resources, says it needs to develop nuclear power to sate strong demand for electricity and water by the fast-growing populations of Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

So, which of them is better positioned to be the 1st to operate a nuclear powerplant and/or develop nukes? Or, will there be several states going nuclear at roughly the same time?

 

[militaryman3121]

i personaly don't think they will even attemed producing them, all talk.

 

[crobato]

These countries may be rich in oil, but are they rich in other mineral resource? You would need to find ways to get Uranium if you want to build a bomb. Countries like Iran and N. Korea are able to pursue nuclear programs even in isolation because they have natural deposits.

 

[militaryman3121]

yeah i agree uranium is not something you can easily buy, the natural deposits are low in some countrys.

 

[SABRE]

So, which of them is better positioned to be the 1st to operate a nuclear powerplant and/or develop nukes? Or, will there be several states going nuclear at roughly the same time?

UAE is not pursuing nuclear weapons & no Arab state is in position to pursue nukes right now. Its not just the uranium or plutonium & facility to enrich or reprocess them you need - you need scientists & technicians who expertise in nuclear energy & have thorough knowledge of the bomb making. & at this moment & perhaps for long time to come there are no such people in Arab states, especially UAE.

 

[Pro'forma]

Unilateral relations between Arab lands and "almost" Arab lands have
seen how useless the nuclear power issue is.

Middle concern lie, where after long deliberation their old hegemony
to supply and demand peace universally is at stake.

 

[masijames]

yeah i agree uranium is not something you can easily buy, the natural deposits are low in some countrys.

they can buy easily from isreal

Masijames; one liners are not allowed as they do not generate productive discussion. Next time please avoid giving one line replies.

- SABRE

 

[eaf-f16]

they can buy easily from isreal

Masijames; one liners are not allowed as they do not generate productive discussion. Next time please avoid giving one line replies.

- SABRE

Yes, I am positive that Israel wouldn't mind providing Egypt and Saudi Arabia with uranium.

Egypt and the GCC countries are not going to enrich uranium on their soil like Iran. This is why it has been acceptable for the "International Community" (US, Israel and friends) for those countries to pursue nuclear energy.

For Egypt, this has more to do with the economy than anything else. I don't think it has anything to do with Iran's nuclear program. Egypt is a very poor country at the end of the day and we get power outages sometimes. Nuclear energy would probably do a world of good for Egypt.

 

[SaudiArabian]

several Arab countries has nuclear reactors to produce energy and a variety of nuclear programs for scientific research. neither has nuclear weapons since it is seen unnecessary and expensive.

the only Arab state close to produce nuclear bombs was Iraq in 1990. it was only few months away from producing the 1st nuclear bomb before invading Kuwait according to an interview with one of the responsible Iraqi nuclear scientists with Riyadh newspaper.

 

[SABRE]

several Arab countries has nuclear reactors to produce energy and a variety of nuclear programs for scientific research. neither has nuclear weapons since it is seen unnecessary and expensive.

the only Arab state close to produce nuclear bombs was Iraq in 1990. it was only few months away from producing the 1st nuclear bomb before invading Kuwait according to an interview with one of the responsible Iraqi nuclear scientists with Riyadh newspaper.

There are several accounts of Iraqi nuclear program. Most believe they had the clandestine program but majority out of that most believe that the program was destroyed by the Israelis & was never pursued again. So if you go with the majority than the statement of Iraq having nuclear weapons program just before Kuwaiti invasion would be flawed.

Another account to Iraqi nuclear weapons, many say, that they never had any such program & did not have know how for the bomb. All they knew how to make was chemical & biological weapons.

On the subjective basis; if Iraq was few days away from making the 1st bomb than they could have waited few days before invading Kuwait. In fact just a test of the nuclear weapons would have removed the necessity for Iraq to invade Kuwait - it could have just dictated its policy to it.

If you ask me I walk between both the above accounts. Iraq may not have the bomb but whatever they could possibly could have used to make the bomb was destroyed by Israelis.

 

[Firehorse]

I've read that the Saudis financed the Pakistani nuclear program- if that's true than the Pakistanis will return the favor if asked. Or maybe the Saudi bomb is already stored in Pakistan? IMO, and I'm not alone, the Iraqi nuclear Wepaons program was spurned by Israeli raid on Osirak, and driven underground.
As for others, how far was Libya in this business?

 

[Aliph Ahmed]

As for others, how far was Libya in this business?

Libya was quite ahead. US for the record showed surprise when recieved the nuclear equipment from Libya. I remember reading Libya was twice as ahead as US or other intelligences antcipated.

Libya only decided to abandon its program when the shipment it purchased from black market was caught and seized. Military strikes were simply inevitable and the only way to come around of them was to come clean.

 

[Firehorse]

If you think of it, Israel is "the Jewish state", but the breakdown is

Jewish 76.4% (of which Israel-born 67.1%, Europe/America-born 22.6%, Africa-born 5.9%, Asia-born 4.2%), non-Jewish 23.6% (mostly Arab) (2004)

- so, it's almost a 1/4 Arab!
IMO, Saudi Arabia will be (if not already) the 1st to get nukes. The holiest shrines & the largest oil reserves are there, and also they won't allow GCC states to get there 1st.

 

[SaudiArabian]

There are several accounts of Iraqi nuclear program. Most believe they had the clandestine program but majority out of that most believe that the program was destroyed by the Israelis & was never pursued again. So if you go with the majority than the statement of Iraq having nuclear weapons program just before Kuwaiti invasion would be flawed.

Another account to Iraqi nuclear weapons, many say, that they never had any such program & did not have know how for the bomb. All they knew how to make was chemical & biological weapons.

On the subjective basis; if Iraq was few days away from making the 1st bomb than they could have waited few days before invading Kuwait. In fact just a test of the nuclear weapons would have removed the necessity for Iraq to invade Kuwait - it could have just dictated its policy to it.

If you ask me I walk between both the above accounts. Iraq may not have the bomb but whatever they could possibly could have used to make the bomb was destroyed by Israelis.

well what i said is all from a very long interview with an Iraqi nuclear scientist who was involved in the two Iraqi nuclear programs.

the Iraqi nuclear reactor which was bombed in 1981 by israel is Osirak reactor, built by support of France. its completely for scientific research and wasn't a threat for israel. however , the reactor was an excellent opurtunity for Iraqi nuclear scientists to gain the know-how and suffecient training in the nuclear field.

in ~1986 , the nuclear project was revived again but this time not for scientific research , it was entended entirely to produce nuclear bombs. this time the project was Iraqi 100% and was very confidential they even had specific policy when importing some pieces from outside to avoid any intelligence attraction. their plans worked and they were about to produce the 1st bomb after the invasion of Kuwait by few months. the Iraqi scientist criticized Saddam's decision of invasion and said he should've waited till the production of the nuclear bomb.

Saddam probably never thought he face such a global coalition. the Iraqi nuclear program is one of the reasons to force KSA to avoid a long term war with Iraq and instead to establish the coalition mainly with the US forces to ensure quick air strikes to destroy the Iraqi nuclear program before its too late.

this nuclear project was one of the main targets for the coalition air forces during Kuwait liberation war. it was completely destroyed in air strikes.

 

[SABRE]

I've read that the Saudis financed the Pakistani nuclear program- if that's true than the Pakistanis will return the favor if asked. Or maybe the Saudi bomb is already stored in Pakistan? IMO, and I'm not alone, the Iraqi nuclear Wepaons program was spurned by Israeli raid on Osirak, and driven underground.
As for others, how far was Libya in this business?

The did provide funds for nuclear research but not for the bomb - although they knew what this research was all about. As for returning favor it has already been turned down by Pakistan. A nuclear umbrella can perhaps be provided to the KSA. However, no chance of proliferation by either side - especially with the Pakistan's nuclear watchman, the Strategic Plans Division (SPD) in place.

It is said Libya would have been ready to make the bomb within few years time (estimated 5 years according to some) had the American invasion of Iraq not made them think otherwise. They were getting everything almost ready made according to reports, all they had to do was put them in place.

well what i said is all from a very long interview with an Iraqi nuclear scientist who was involved in the two Iraqi nuclear programs.

the Iraqi nuclear reactor which was bombed in 1981 by israel is Osirak reactor, built by support of France. its completely for scientific research and wasn't a threat for israel. however , the reactor was an excellent opurtunity for Iraqi nuclear scientists to gain the know-how and suffecient training in the nuclear field.

in ~1986 , the nuclear project was revived again but this time not for scientific research , it was entended entirely to produce nuclear bombs. this time the project was Iraqi 100% and was very confidential they even had specific policy when importing some pieces from outside to avoid any intelligence attraction. their plans worked and they were about to produce the 1st bomb after the invasion of Kuwait by few months. the Iraqi scientist criticized Saddam's decision of invasion and said he should've waited till the production of the nuclear bomb.

Saddam probably never thought he face such a global coalition. the Iraqi nuclear program is one of the reasons to force KSA to avoid a long term war with Iraq and instead to establish the coalition mainly with the US forces to ensure quick air strikes to destroy the Iraqi nuclear program before its too late.

this nuclear project was one of the main targets for the coalition air forces during Kuwait liberation war. it was completely destroyed in air strikes.

Hmm. I am not challenging you. You could be right or lets say the person who gave the interview could be correct but given the recent trend of adventure-journalism I don't trust many of the newspaper reports & interviews.

The information above brings more question to mind. I.e. Did Iraq had enough funds to re-divert to nuclear program when war was ongoing with Iran? They had already diverted much of their funds to conventional weapons from USSR, UK, France & even USA along with their R&D of Chemical & Biological weapons?

 

[SaudiArabian]

Hmm. I am not challenging you. You could be right or lets say the person who gave the interview could be correct but given the recent trend of adventure-journalism I don't trust many of the newspaper reports & interviews.

The information above brings more question to mind. I.e. Did Iraq had enough funds to re-divert to nuclear program when war was ongoing with Iran? They had already diverted much of their funds to conventional weapons from USSR, UK, France & even USA along with their R&D of Chemical & Biological weapons?

the interview included the scientist's , Dr.Nu'aiman Al Nueimi , photos doing the interview (available mainly in the original paper not internet version thats why i didn't consider it a journalist adventure). according to him , he insisted that the cost of the 2nd Iraqi nuclear program was no more than 750 million $ not 10 Billion $ as it was claimed by the US nor it was 100 Billion $ as Chalaby claimed in London.

these are the links to the interview but unfortunately in Arabic only even thought its a dungeon of information about Iraq's nuclear programs

http://www.alriyadh.com/2006/01/21/article124408.html
http://www.alriyadh.com/2006/01/22/article124648.html
http://www.alriyadh.com/2006/01/23/article124976.html
http://www.alriyadh.com/2006/01/24/article125215.html

 

[SABRE]

the interview included the scientist's , Dr.Nu'aiman Al Nueimi , photos doing the interview (available mainly in the original paper not internet version thats why i didn't consider it a journalist adventure). according to him , he insisted that the cost of the 2nd Iraqi nuclear program was no more than 750 million $ not 10 Billion $ as it was claimed by the US nor it was 100 Billion $ as Chalaby claimed in London.

these are the links to the interview but unfortunately in Arabic only even thought its a dungeon of information about Iraq's nuclear programs

http://www.alriyadh.com/2006/01/21/article124408.html
http://www.alriyadh.com/2006/01/22/article124648.html
http://www.alriyadh.com/2006/01/23/article124976.html
http://www.alriyadh.com/2006/01/24/article125215.html

Actually I "can" read Arabic but "can't" understand it

I'll try to get it translated (May be you can do that).

 

[Firehorse]

My intuition is as good as ever-

Saudi Arabia most likely would develop nuclear weapons if Iran acquires them, according to a report to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

And they already have IRBMs, as been discussed on this forum!

Could Iraqi technicians & scientists be employed by other states? I presume many of them left the country since 2003!

Between 1972 and 1974, Pakistan had persuaded Libya, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, to fund its nuclear weapons programme. ..The funding from Libya, Iraq and Saudi Arabia was rooted in the significant political orientations of Pakistan’s nuclear weapon policies. Pakistan was not acquiring nuclear weapons capacity only to counter India’s conventional military superiority. Bhutto had told leaders of the OIC in 1974 that Pakistan’s bomb would be an ‘Islamic bomb’ and could be the foundation for Islamic countries acquiring strategic military capacities to counter other nuclear weapons powers. http://www.hindustantimes.com/Story...1d07ffb&&Headline=Radioactive+nation:+Opinion

 

[T-Rex]

It is not only the question of funding, natural resource and intellectual resource. The biggest determinant is a backbone. the Arab regimes don't have a backbone, they are simply too weak to resist the US pressure.

 

[T-Rex]

UAE is not pursuing nuclear weapons & no Arab state is in position to pursue nukes right now. Its not just the uranium or plutonium & facility to enrich or reprocess them you need - you need scientists & technicians who expertise in nuclear energy & have thorough knowledge of the bomb making. & at this moment & perhaps for long time to come there are no such people in Arab states, especially UAE.
----------------------------------------------------------------

It is not only the question of funding, natural resource and intellectual resource. The biggest determinant is a backbone. the Arab regimes don't have a backbone, they are simply too weak to resist the US pressure.


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