Not being funny, but both sides have a cultural piece of land deep within the other sides border. And outside players like Turkey and Iran also influence here.
The Caucasus regional militaries- news and discussion
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EXCLUSIVE-UPDATE 3-Russia warns against Georgia NATO membership
US fears Russian arms flow to Abkhazia
U.S. says it regrets Russia's moves on Abkhazia
IMO, it's all part of the process of chipping away those former Soviet Republics from Russia's orbit. The Caucasus is the strategically placed area, by anyone's standards- between the 2 large inland seas, bordering on Russia, Turkey & Iran, with oil & pipelines. The Russians will surely resist farther NATO encroachment!
US fears Russian arms flow to Abkhazia
U.S. says it regrets Russia's moves on Abkhazia
IMO, it's all part of the process of chipping away those former Soviet Republics from Russia's orbit. The Caucasus is the strategically placed area, by anyone's standards- between the 2 large inland seas, bordering on Russia, Turkey & Iran, with oil & pipelines. The Russians will surely resist farther NATO encroachment!
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Georgia says "very close" to war with Russia
If the war were to start, and georgia is on her own, IMHO it could be worse than anything we've seen so far in that part of the World!
If the war were to start, and georgia is on her own, IMHO it could be worse than anything we've seen so far in that part of the World!
It almost started once already. The Georgians arrested the Russian officers on espionage charges and Russia cut off all communication. Iirc the North Caucus MD was put on red alert status. It's not likely Georgia will risk war with Russia. The Second Chechen war proved that even a decimated Russian army will still defeat any third rate opponent given that the political will to fight is there. I have no doubts the political will is there currently, which means bad news for Georgia.
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Well, my assessments were correct so far.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4511016.ece
http://vologda.kp.ru/daily/24145/362279/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/11/AR2008081101372_pf.html
http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php?/site/article/5568/
IMO, it's only a matter of time before shooting starts again- so far Russia gained less than she had hoped for, in the long term.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4511016.ece
http://vologda.kp.ru/daily/24145/362279/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/11/AR2008081101372_pf.html
http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php?/site/article/5568/
IMO, it's only a matter of time before shooting starts again- so far Russia gained less than she had hoped for, in the long term.
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Long term, where do you think the russia's want the borders to be?
If they took all the coastline and border with turkey that would be very good for them, probably Russias best case scenario I think
Obviously bad for US, UK and Norway, relations between russia and the US/UK are already strained, clearly i cant see either US/UK reacting militarily, though i guess they have other options
If they took all the coastline and border with turkey that would be very good for them, probably Russias best case scenario I think
Obviously bad for US, UK and Norway, relations between russia and the US/UK are already strained, clearly i cant see either US/UK reacting militarily, though i guess they have other options
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Wherever there is a majority of Russian passport holders (current and future), those areas would be reclaimed, just like S. Ossetia & Abhazia. Eastern & Southern Ukraine is next! Georgia doesn't need to be annexed- an allied government there is enough.
weasel1962
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I certainly doubt so. Don't forget its Georgia who started the ball rolling on this one. Russia took the opportunity provided and made full use of it.
What I think will happen going forward is an escalation of Russian provocation along its borders (ie bully) to test waters on how far it can push these states.
US attempts to "punish" Russia for the Georgian misadventure is pathetic. If anything, it probably removes any leverage (however minimal it already is) vis a vis Russia.
The state dept is severely misreading the ground opinion in Russia. There's a lot of support for Russian actions so far which appears to be
(i) Patriotic (since it defends Russia)
(ii) Justified (since its stopping genocide)
(iii) Victimised (that's how Russia appears to be seen)
(iv) Unfair (that's how Russians believe the west is trying to portray Russia in as bad a light as possible)
By ignoring the fact that Russia did not actually start this, it has given the Russian Govt the opportunity to portray double standards in "western" media and govt treatment.
Apparently it is ok for Bush to invade a sovereign country (actually 2), but not Russia defending Russians. (Just my reading not necessarily my opinions). Many neutral observers I've spoken to, already appear to have this view and are going to end up with this impression.
The simple message Russia is spreading is that so long someone is a US ally, one can do anything including genocide with US support. Not exactly the kind of image the US wants to portray.
I certainly doubt so. Don't forget its Georgia who started the ball rolling on this one. Russia took the opportunity provided and made full use of it.
What I think will happen going forward is an escalation of Russian provocation along its borders (ie bully) to test waters on how far it can push these states.
US attempts to "punish" Russia for the Georgian misadventure is pathetic. If anything, it probably removes any leverage (however minimal it already is) vis a vis Russia.
The state dept is severely misreading the ground opinion in Russia. There's a lot of support for Russian actions so far which appears to be
(i) Patriotic (since it defends Russia)
(ii) Justified (since its stopping genocide)
(iii) Victimised (that's how Russia appears to be seen)
(iv) Unfair (that's how Russians believe the west is trying to portray Russia in as bad a light as possible)
By ignoring the fact that Russia did not actually start this, it has given the Russian Govt the opportunity to portray double standards in "western" media and govt treatment.
Apparently it is ok for Bush to invade a sovereign country (actually 2), but not Russia defending Russians. (Just my reading not necessarily my opinions). Many neutral observers I've spoken to, already appear to have this view and are going to end up with this impression.
The simple message Russia is spreading is that so long someone is a US ally, one can do anything including genocide with US support. Not exactly the kind of image the US wants to portray.
Locking thread at present. A discussion is going on regarding the fate of the similar Caucasian Powderkeg thread. Depending on the outcome of the discussion, the effected threads might remain locked, merged, etc. Do not open new/additional threads on the topic for the time being, as there are concerns regarding posting quality and behavior.
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