Potential "New" states in Europe

[Väring]

As more and more states recognise Kosovo as an independent state, a question occurs; will there be more in Europe and if so, which?

If Europe splits up in more bits and pieces, it will have an impact on security and European politics. The list that I can come up with is:

* South Ossetia (Georgia)
* Abkhazia (Georgia)
* Trans-Dniester (Moldova)
* Faroe Islands (denmark)
* Katalonia (Spain)
* Basque (Spain)
* Scotland (UK)
* Wales (UK)
* Northern Ireland (UK)
* Corse (France)
* Åland (Finland)
* Chechnya (russia)
* Dagestan (russia)

Also, russian minorities can also try to proclaim independence in parts of Estonia and Ukraine.

 

[Grand Danois]

My bet is on that the Faroese will leave the United Kingdom of Denmark within a decade. Full independence is officially only a matter of Faroese wanting to take that path, and tough the population is in a 50/50 split on the issue, I think it will go that way.

They will be aligned to the West, though I don't have an idea of NATO membership or PfP is on the agenda. It may end up with PfP.

(I was much amused when the Faroese pro-independence politician Høgni Hoydal, suggested that the Faroes should be a PfP member a few years ago, as the membership of NATO includes the entire realm.)

 

[kato]

Don't forget Belgium... err, Wallonie and Vlaams Gewest.

 

[drg]

And little old Slavonia.

 

[gvg]

From Wiki (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Free_Alliance, not at 15 posts yet, so you'll have to copy-paste):
The European Free Alliance (EFA) is a European political party.

It consists of various political parties in Europe who believe in either full political independence (statehood), or some form of devolution or self-government for their country or region.

They've got 30 members and 5 observers, so with only 2 parties representing the same region, it's 34 potential new states in the EU. Don't know about the rest of european independece movements.

At the link above, you can find all the parties and the regions they represent.

 

[merocaine]

Can't see to many more really, there not much chance of it happening in the UK,
No chance in spain, I dont think the Catalans have that much of an appetite, ditto the Basques. No chance the French would allow Corsica to leave.
We've seen how far Chechnya's got can see Dagastan want to follow that path.

South Ossetia and Abkhazia are possibles, but only if Russia is willing to back them up with force.
Kosovo got away on the back of a terrorist campain, ethnic cleansing and foreign military intervention. They were a pretty unique case, not many regions have Nato on there side.

Belgium, theres a chance alright, but thats more a 50/50 split down the middle,
All I know about the Faroese Islands is there 6 points in European qualification!

 

[KiwiRob]

I can see Scotland gaining independence although I don't see what benefits it would bring them, Wales will always remain part of the UK, I don't think they have a very strong independence movement, if Northern Ireland ever leaves the UK it would most likely reunite with Eire, so no new state. What about an independent Cornwall or Brittany.

The Sami people of Northern Scandinavia have often called for their own state, so far only Norway have given them some independent decision making ability through the Sami Ting.

I was under the impression that the possible split in Belgium had been patched over?

Now that Kosovo has been given the green light it must give a lot of motivation to groups like the Basques in Spain and France, if the Kosovans can be recognised I can't see any reason why a group like the Basques can't.

What about possible states in the US leaving the Union, I have heard of an independence movements in Texas, California and the most likely state to leave Hawaii.

 

[Waylander]

Thanks for the EFA link.

Muhahahaha, the Bayernpartei is also an observer of the EFA.
Their chance to get an independent Bavaria are zero. They are not even part of the bavarian parliament.

I am impressed by the number of parties from France. The whole lot of Italian independence movement is not surprising. If one just observes their political system a little one is relatively shock resistant.

But I haven't expected that many (8) regions in France which have at least a party voting for their independence.

We were late with our nation state but we seem to have less independence movements than the rest of the big european countries.

 

[nevidimka]

Wow. There is an independence movement in California n Texas? Why would they wanna leave the union? Are they backed by any political party/movement or just rebels?

 

[Generalissimo]

Wow. There is an independence movement in California n Texas? Why would they wanna leave the union? Are they backed by any political party/movement or just rebels?

I live in California, and I can tell you that any movement to secede from the Union in any state is not really serious and has no chance. People here (including myself) often say "I'm sick of (name a problem in the US), we should secede", but it's not really serious. There's certainly no rebel groups or anything like that.

 

[kato]

Their chance to get an independent Bavaria are zero.

On that note, i'm currently attempting to assemble a current ToE and OrBat for an independant South Germany (WBK IV: Bavaria + Baden-Württemberg) from the post-transformation parts of the Bundeswehr stationed there.
Looks impressive as airforce goes, and very impressive when looking at stored spare parts and equipment; not so much when looking at ground forces - due to historical context.

There's also a very minor political group in Baden-Württemberg that tried to get Swabia to join Switzerland postwar.

 

[contedicavour]

I'm not sure what this thread has to do with defence talk ??
Even supposing we started identifying which units are based in what regions I'm not sure it would help identify what armed forces a newly independent region would have. Several Yugoslav units based in Croatia and Slovenia ended up in Serbia, just to give an example.

cheers

 

[kato]

Several Yugoslav units based in Croatia and Slovenia ended up in Serbia, just to give an example.

In the Soviet system that was actually intentional - conscripts from Estonia ended up serving in Siberia, Ukrainians in Kasachstan and so on. With the intention that you don't get a potentially "traitorous" unit composed of "locals".

supposing we started identifying which units are based in what regions

Ah hell, let's try it...

Example Bavaria + Baden-Württemberg (too lazy to sort em out); population ~26 million people:

- two Luftwaffe wings (JBG32, JG74)
- eight air defense squadrons (FlaRakGrp 22,23)

- one mechanized Bde (PzBde 12)
- one mountain inf Bde (GebJgBde 23)
- one light inf Bde (DF Bde)
- one "auxiliary" brigade (HTrBde, missing its artillery Rgt)
- about 1500 men worth in special forces (KSK + others)

- plenty of logistics and combat support units (eg EW)
- plenty of depots and maintenance units (about 10 billion euro worth in spare parts alone...)
- plenty of stationary systems (radar, medical, IT...)

 

[Jon K]

There's also a very minor political group in Baden-Württemberg that tried to get Swabia to join Switzerland postwar.

But that ended up quickly as no one could make any sense what they were talking about, I would guess

As for Åland, the pacifist sentiment is a strong part of identity, as Åland is exempted from conscription and is demilitarized. Thus independent Åland would be neutral and without any armed force except the Police. As for what kind of police Åland would need, the headline in Nya Åland newspaper about two years back when I was there was "Who has stomped the roses in front of the public library?"

 

[kickars]

What about an independent Cornwall or Brittany.

It's funny that every Cornish I know never think they are English. But they always think they are British, though. So personally I think they just simply want to be independent from England rather than the UK.

 

[Waylander]

I would me really amazed if there would be even one unit supporting and defending an independent south germany.

Are there any independence movements within europe which could hope of having any chance of support by the local military units?

 

[kato]

Are there any independence movements within europe which could hope of having any chance of support by the local military units?

Transnistria, though they have their own army of course.

Faroe Islands maybe - they should have some local units under the Danish Homeguard at least?

Åland - doesn't the Finnish military have some unit that's entirely composed of Åland locals? With Swedish as mandatory language?

I would me really amazed if there would be even one unit supporting and defending an independent south germany.

Wouldn't be so sure about 10th PzDiv, or a couple GebJg subunits there actually
There aren't any "local" units of course - simply the requirement for soldiers to switch to another unit every 3 years takes care of that. There might be some chance in the reserves. I.e. the RKs, as these actually consist of locals. Of course those only bring ... what, 2000 men at most? to the table in the entire South German area
Definitely not enough to sustain the ensuing war with Germany that would be mandatory by German constitution.

 

[Waylander]

Ok, I forgot the usual angry bavarian Gebirgsjäger reservist.

I thought there are just police forces at the Faroes.
Our danish members are going to know it.

 

[kato]

But that ended up quickly as no one could make any sense what they were talking about, I would guess

It's actually a pretty old idea. Originally started in the times when Napoleon occupied the area, cropped up again after each World War.

Affected not just South Germany, but also Western Austria (Vorarlberg, which is also "Alemannic") - Vorarlberg voted 81% in favour to join Switzerland in 1918, but this was shot down by both Austria and Switzerland quickly. Similar ideas in South Germany were squashed before they ever got that far. Remember that 1919 was a rather volatile year for Germany, with parts of Bavaria also declaring an independant Soviet state (went down rather ugly).

Post-WW2 ('45-'47), there were two basic political lines in South Baden-Württemberg (in particular in French-occupied South Baden), with one line advocating South Baden joining Switzerland, and the other line advocating an independant Swabian-Alemannic Federation on Baden, Württemberg and Bavarian territory, with Alsace, Switzerland, Tirol and Vorarlberg as well as Liechtenstein joining this federation in the long term.

France didn't like these further ideas at all, so the group advocating this line didn't get permission to form an official political party. Initially, France wasn't all that opposed to an autonomous Alemannic state as a buffer state to Germany.

Switzerland itself has always been opposed to the idea as this would increase the number of Germans in the Swiss federation, which would rather disturb their national culture mix.

The last "separatist" move in the area was in 1956, when the city of Büsingen, a German enclave surrounded by Switzerland, which entered into negotiations on joining Switzerland - which faltered only after German higher authorities intervened, and Switzerland withdrew from the negotiations. The same city had already voted in 1918 on joining Switzerland with 96% in favour, and since 1947 already was in a free-trade zone with Switzerland (renegotiated 1967; the Swiss Franc is actually the primary legal currency in the city, and Switzerland has partial police and tax authority in the city).

 

[Grand Danois]

Ok, I forgot the usual angry bavarian Gebirgsjäger reservist.

I thought there are just police forces at the Faroes.
Our danish members are going to know it.

Yup. Only Danish service personnel and mostly for SAR and fisheries inspection since the end of the Cold War.

The Faroese aren't conscripted, but may volunteer. No home guard.