New Chinese Ballistic Missile Submarine Spotted

[Todjaeger]

With how things are going with US these days, I think it's an advantage for Russia if more and more nations holds better SSBNs...just so that ABMs are gonna get outnumbered.

I wouldn't think that Russia would be overly worried about the US missile defence system, certainly not enough to assist other countries in developing SSBN. After all, those SSBN could at some future point end up pointed at Russia.

As for overwhelming the US missile defence system, that really shouldn't be all that difficult. Under present plans there are to be something like 18 interceptor missiles. Assuming there was an event where the system was used, just by launching 19 ballistic missiles then the system is already overwhelmed. And that's assuming everything worked perfectly with each interceptor eliminating one incoming missile. Factor in actual system availability, reliability and/or MIRV-equipped ballistic missiles and a somewhat different picture is painted.

-Cheers

 

[BlahBlahBlah1]

I wouldn't think that Russia would be overly worried about the US missile defence system, certainly not enough to assist other countries in developing SSBN. After all, those SSBN could at some future point end up pointed at Russia.

As for overwhelming the US missile defence system, that really shouldn't be all that difficult. Under present plans there are to be something like 18 interceptor missiles. Assuming there was an event where the system was used, just by launching 19 ballistic missiles then the system is already overwhelmed. And that's assuming everything worked perfectly with each interceptor eliminating one incoming missile. Factor in actual system availability, reliability and/or MIRV-equipped ballistic missiles and a somewhat different picture is painted.

-Cheers

For future preparations...US will build more and more. Interceptors are always cheaper than nuclear missiles.

 

[Ares]

There was a second XIA. Reports were that when it was launched it had a reactor accident/failure and it sunk because of it. Many books including Janes reports this.

 

[BlahBlahBlah1]

There was a second XIA. Reports were that when it was launched it had a reactor accident/failure and it sunk because of it. Many books including Janes reports this.

I read that somewhere too...makes sense to be building 2 of something...but who knows.

 

[crobato]

I highly doubt that everyone just missed China building another Xia...it's not easy to hide the money and resources going into a nuclear sub.

If there is a place in the world, that such circumstances can happen it is in China. Remember no one managed to post a picture of a second Chinese boomer until recently, and even then, half of the people would denounce it as some PS. [The GE picture of the boomer matches this picture, which confirms it as not being PS].

Even if people managed to take pictures of the sub, there is fear of recrimination of the pics were posted in some forum. Webmasters may take it out, and posters may feel they may get jailed. Once after the PLAN made the Type 093 sub formal, we have like two or three pictures suddenly emerging out of the woodwork. This case shows that Chinese internet forum goers are still intimidated about government censorship, even though, some people had no problems posting the Type 054A frigate in construction pics.

Another problem lately is that the PLAN have removed all the visible pennant numbers in their subs, into pennants that are so small you have to walk up the sub to see them. Thus if I see pictures of black subs for example, its impossible to tell if the pictures are only about one sub, two, or three or more. You only know and confirm that at least this class of sub is in the water, and at least one of them, but identification for more is difficult.

I don't think China built another Xia like the Xia 406. The report that there is a second Xia after 406 is just that, a rumor, and so is its alleged demise. 406 was a test bed. We know the value of earlier reports. They also claimed similarity to the Victor III and alleged Russian help. Now when pictures are revealed, the 093 looks a lot more like a 688 that it can be mistaken as such, than a Victor III. That sizes you the value of such reports, especially from Jane's.

This does not mean that much later, that they will build another, an improved Xia intended as a testbed for JL-2 firing. By then their technology would have been more mature.

 

[BlahBlahBlah1]

If there is a place in the world, that such circumstances can happen it is in China. Remember no one managed to post a picture of a second Chinese boomer until recently, and even then, half of the people would denounce it as some PS.

Yes, it's hard to identify or take a picture for that matter. But, you can tell if China is building another sub by monitoring it's resources. Hence DoD predicted many weapons before pictures or direct evidence were declassified.

 

[gf0012-aust]

If there is a place in the world, that such circumstances can happen it is in China. Remember no one managed to post a picture of a second Chinese boomer until recently, and even then, half of the people would denounce it as some PS. [The GE picture of the boomer matches this picture, which confirms it as not being PS].

I'm not so sure you would want to take that as an example of real life assessment.

eg, I'm a member of an discussion group that includes an ex ONI Sino-analyst/specialist. He was making noises to us about chinese sub advances well before (12 months) they were in the public press. His info about the Carrier developments have similarly spot on.

Just because its not in the public domain doesn't mean that its a discussion point further down the line. OSINT releases are not Intel releases by any shape fashion or form...

 

[LancerMc]

I know the site Sino-Defence has posted the development of a new Chinese SSBN for sometime. Xia was a complete catastrophe and no none further development of the class were launched. The Jin even is the graining image seems to be a significant step forward in Chinese submarine construction. The PLAN is recent years has made great strides in improving their submarine fleet. They even developed a new diesel attack sub in almost complete secrecy a few years ago.

I am curious though that the Jin bears a striking resemblance to a Modern Russian Delta IV SSBN. I wouldn't be surprised if the PLAN was having problems in designing a new boat that would have the Russian step-in and help.

 

[crobato]

Yes, it's hard to identify or take a picture for that matter. But, you can tell if China is building another sub by monitoring it's resources. Hence DoD predicted many weapons before pictures or direct evidence were declassified.

What they predicted is another boomer, circa allegedly launched in 2004. It is believed that this boomer **should** be the 094. But are we sure its really the 094 or just an enhanced Xia class? The only real fact is that there is a second boomer. That's it. We just assumed its 094. But the PLAN hasn't confirmed that it is.

The PLAN didn't confirm before that there is a 091 mod with skewed screws until the 80th Anniversary of the PLA having an exhibit.

As for the so called Jin class looking like a Delta, well that's because the Deltas were basically taking an existing SSN design and turning it into an SSBN. It's not like an SSBN design built from the start like the Typhoons and Ohios. If you're doing what is basically a conversion, you're going to get that hump back.

The Xia is basically the SSBN counterpart to the Han. By this logic, the 094 should look like a humped 093. But the pictures we have seen don't match what this is supposed to look, and the sail is more of the Han and Xia than it is with the 093. It didn't match that of the desktop models. Some of the Chinese bloggers are claiming we are not seeing the real 094 yet.

 

[contedicavour]

Now that we know where this second boomer is, it would be interesting to see if it can sail or not. The original Xia is almost not operational, let's see this new one.
By the way, I'd be surprised if the USN didn't have a SSN ready to track this new boomer the moment it leaves the base !

cheers

 

[BlahBlahBlah1]

Now that we know where this second boomer is, it would be interesting to see if it can sail or not. The original Xia is almost not operational, let's see this new one.
By the way, I'd be surprised if the USN didn't have a SSN ready to track this new boomer the moment it leaves the base !

cheers

I'm wouldn't jump to any conclusions that this is a Xia.

 

[contedicavour]

I'm wouldn't jump to any conclusions that this is a Xia.

True, but at this point we know what its armament will be (JL2s) and what probably matters most to the USN is if this SSBN is operational or not. Hence the likely Improved LA class SSN probably lurking out there waiting for sea trials of the new Chinese boomer... if this ever happens...

cheers

 

[Pathfinder-X]

True, but at this point we know what its armament will be (JL2s) and what probably matters most to the USN is if this SSBN is operational or not. Hence the likely Improved LA class SSN probably lurking out there waiting for sea trials of the new Chinese boomer... if this ever happens...

cheers

Upgraded Xia class is fully operational, but does not carry the JL-2. The hull has been fitted with acoustic tile and painted black, with the serial number removed.

 

[contedicavour]

Upgraded Xia class is fully operational, but does not carry the JL-2. The hull has been fitted with acoustic tile and painted black, with the serial number removed.

Has it sailed recently ? Or is it stuck in harbour ?

cheers

 

[crobato]

Now that we know where this second boomer is, it would be interesting to see if it can sail or not. The original Xia is almost not operational, let's see this new one.
By the way, I'd be surprised if the USN didn't have a SSN ready to track this new boomer the moment it leaves the base !

cheers

At that time the GE picture is taken, this boomer is not in its home base but apparently visiting another naval base. The only place where this sub is made is in Huludao, and the naval sub base is at Qingdao (also famously known as the place where Tsingtao beer comes from, Tsingtao is actually the Wade Giles pronounciation of Qingdao which is Pinyin). The GE pic of the Xia in a dry dock is the Qingdao base, with three Hans parked in the bay.

But the 2nd boomer is clearly in Dalian, which means its not both in the place where it is made, and its not in its home port. It definitely is finished and running around.

I have all three locations in GE. The Huludao yard apparently has a sub, a 093 presumably in the process of assembly in a dry dock when the satellite image was taken.

 

[Firehorse]

It looks like I was right about Hainan basing! and here is another reason to give boomers ASAT capability:

High seas in the north Pacific posed the first obstacle as the USS Lake Erie prepared to launch a three-stage missile. Beyond a certain point, rough seas can interfere with the cruiser's launch procedures. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080221...d_satellite;_ylt=AjSHLwoqSYhHHaq9.lkSQNJg.3QA

What's the usual launch depth of SLBMs? I would magine that a sub wouldn't be affected by bad weather as much as a surface ship!

 

[Grand Danois]

It looks like I was right about Hainan basing! and here is another reason to give boomers ASAT capability:


What's the usual launch depth of SLBMs? I would magine that a sub wouldn't be affected by bad weather as much as a surface ship!

Read it again: interfere is not the same as exclude!

ASAT mission is suicide for a boomer. Waste of an extremely expensive asset.

A boomer also lack the sensors to conduct the intercept.

 

[Firehorse]

I've read a few years ago that the USN boomers could also be given BMD mission, besides SSGN convertions. Thay can be supported by others with sensors. A boomer can do many other things besides strategic deterrance, with or without SLBMs!

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

I've read a few years ago that the USN boomers could also be given BMD mission, besides SSGN convertions. Thay can be supported by others with sensors. A boomer can do many other things besides strategic deterrance, with or without SLBMs!

IIRC a couple of USN SSBN's were being converted to SSGN's and SOCOM assets. These should fulfill a neice need the USN has nicely.

However PLAN is not the USN (not even close). The US have spare boomers that they dont need to fulfill the BM role. Chinese boomers on the other hand are few and far between. Virtually all of them are needed to fulfill the role they were designed for, strategic deturrence. That being said why on earth would PLAN bother giveing one of their most precious and expensive asstets a role that will compromise them when used and that could easill be handled by land based systems? Theres a big difference between wether it could be done and wether it should be done.

 

[Firehorse]

Well, now they may not want to use them in this role, but as more being built it may very well be the case! It all dependents on the way they intend to use those SSBNs in the future- as a deterrant only or as multi-role platforms.

.. the Aegis system was the BMD system of choice for this important anti-satellite mission because Aegis ships could easily move into the launch location required to intercept the satellite at the appropriate time and orbital location to minimize the likelihood that unwanted debris might fall on populated areas. This same flexibility can enable a global BMD capability because ships can operate in about two-thirds of the earth's surface which is covered by water.
http://www.aim.org/guest-column/make-navy-missile-defense-all-it-can-be/

If this is true for the USN, why not for the PLAN? Considering that China doesn't have Aegis-like CGs, if they use their boomers and surface ships (for radar support), IMHO, it may be possible! And if not using subs, they could refit some surface ships with interceptor missiles.