The Baltic region - future influence and power

[Investigator]

There are 42 000 home guard soldiers (officail figures!) in 69 home guard battalions. They have, in general, a general conscript training as a basis, often much more.

These troops have naturally a lower quality than the field army but is something an agressor have to take into account since they are well armed and skilled in handling their arms. The big difference is stamina but that is also not required in the same degree as in the field army. However, as I said before, it´s quite easy for Sweden to grow in size as long as we have the weapons required, and today we have. An attack doesn´t come from a blue sky, there is first a long period of deteriorating international relations before a war. Countries that doesn´t have additional weaponry will find it difficult to aquire weapons systems in a pre war phase.

Also, Sweden and Finland have an ambition to join Nato and a likely target year is 2015, at least that is what the Swedish defence minister stated a few days ago. The most interesting part with his declaration is that there is no discussion about it afterwards... which means that people are getting used to the thought of being Nato members and that it´s less controversial than earlier.

Hi Dal,

The problem with Nato membership for Switzerland is they may have to fight (unlikely but a distant possibility). Take it from New Zealanders, if you get drawn into a war, not of your choosing, you could have many dead, as we did in WW1 and WW2 (the highest from any nation that had no battles on its territory). It may be best to stay independant and profit from both sides. It worked for Switzerland many years ago.

 

[Rythm]

There are 42 000 home guard soldiers (officail figures!) in 69 home guard battalions. They have, in general, a general conscript training as a basis, often much more.

These troops have naturally a lower quality than the field army but is something an agressor have to take into account since they are well armed and skilled in handling their arms. The big difference is stamina but that is also not required in the same degree as in the field army. However, as I said before, it´s quite easy for Sweden to grow in size as long as we have the weapons required, and today we have. An attack doesn´t come from a blue sky, there is first a long period of deteriorating international relations before a war. Countries that doesn´t have additional weaponry will find it difficult to aquire weapons systems in a pre war phase.

Also, Sweden and Finland have an ambition to join Nato and a likely target year is 2015, at least that is what the Swedish defence minister stated a few days ago. The most interesting part with his declaration is that there is no discussion about it afterwards... which means that people are getting used to the thought of being Nato members and that it´s less controversial than earlier.

Hate to break this to you, but official numbers are seldom to be trusted, especially in the military. Do take the time to speak to your local homeguard commander and he will enlighten you regarding differences between "should-be" and "reality". The Homeguard is seriously understrength. Also, except for a single officer (not the batalion CO) no officer has a proper comission. They are normal conscripts that have been democratically elected to command a platoon, a company or a batalion!

Attacks DO come out of the blue! Denmark and Norway in 1940, Afghanistan 1980, Falklands 1982, Panama 1990, Iraq both in 1990 and 2002. Time these countries hade to react was between a couple of hours up to six months. Now show me a single swedish politician with the guts to call out a general mobilization six months in advance, thereby risking his political career.

Ah, NATO membership. You really believe that the current government will stay in power after 2010? You really think that the Socialdemocrats, green party and former communist party will want to pursue NATO membership? It will not happen, I tell you. At most we will see swedish participation in NRF.

 

[Ths]

I generally agree with Grand Danois, just a few comments:

1. Swedish industry has traditionally been fuelled by cheap energy. The Waterpower resources have generally all been used. there might be some benefits from an upgrade in equipment; but nothing that will rock the world.
The load problem in Swedish power is that the water magazines are 3 weeks supply - tops - and very dependend on the precipitation.
The serious part is that any increase in energy consumption will have to be bought at a very high price.
Swedish industry has never been cheap in labour, which means they had to use cheap energy and the top end of the market. For industrial good this top end has been shrinking. Sweden is saddled with a lot of sunset industries.
2. A lot of the major swedish coorperations have been bought by foreign interests - lets see how many more Volvoes are build in Sweden. I mean that Colin Powell has retired and he tinkers with second hand Volvoes.
3. The Swedish defence Forces are of very little relevance to Nato: They can defend swedish territory - against whom???????
4. The crucial point is that the defence of Scandinavia is the defense - including the opposite shore - of the Baltic Sea. The USA and GB do not have vessels suited for these waters. We saw how poorly ships for the Baltic performed outside, when a Flyvefisken Class deployed to the Mediterainian. A 4m wave action in the Biscay sendt her in for repair on Sardinia.
The task of dominating the Baltic is rather large: It involves coastal defence - which is the task of each nation - which is why we donated a Flyvefisken class. But the real task is to keep the Russian Navy in port and secure transport at sea. Sweden can defend their coastal waters - just.
So why should Nato want Sweden???
The Baltic nations cannot be defended - except in Nato, as an attack on Estonia would result in a general war in central Europe. So the best way f.i. Germany can defend Estonia is perfecting what they are good at: Armoured Forces!
5. Regarding HomeGuards. The role of an effective Home Guard is to cover the back of the nation. The regulars will be deployed overseas. The opposition to the Home Guard will be around a reinforced infantry company - anything larger will in time provoke countermeasures. That is the task the Danish Home Guard is reorganised to lift. It doesn't take much - provided You are on the spot in time.

 

[SlyDog]

The absolute MOST decisive factor IF sweden will seek membership in NATO - or not, is the general opinion among ordinary people!! And before a decision to do so (seek membership in NATO), sweden will probably be in consultation with Finland in this question and do it "in common". But how really knowss, what will happen?

 

[Dalregementet]

Hate to break this to you, but official numbers are seldom to be trusted, especially in the military. Do take the time to speak to your local homeguard commander and he will enlighten you regarding differences between "should-be" and "reality". The Homeguard is seriously understrength. Also, except for a single officer (not the batalion CO) no officer has a proper comission. They are normal conscripts that have been democratically elected to command a platoon, a company or a batalion!

Attacks DO come out of the blue! Denmark and Norway in 1940, Afghanistan 1980, Falklands 1982, Panama 1990, Iraq both in 1990 and 2002. Time these countries hade to react was between a couple of hours up to six months. Now show me a single swedish politician with the guts to call out a general mobilization six months in advance, thereby risking his political career.

Ah, NATO membership. You really believe that the current government will stay in power after 2010? You really think that the Socialdemocrats, green party and former communist party will want to pursue NATO membership? It will not happen, I tell you. At most we will see swedish participation in NRF.

Rythm... You are really funny! I had a big laugh reading your text and I thank you for it. It´s just healthy to have a big laugh sometimes

Well, I don´t have time to check with our home guard if they have any vacancies but as I stated, the most important thinh is to have the hardware.

My laugh was focused on attacks, if they do or don´t come out of the blue.
Well, there were alerts but then, you have to believe them also and another problem was that neither Norway or Denmark could defend themselves anyway. Falklands, the same thing. There were warnings but no one believed them. Iraq - are you really serious?

Panama and Afghanistan - I don´t know but you can´t compare them with Sweden. We actually have organisations focused on monitoring what happens in our neighbourhood and we should get some warning from other countries as well.

Regarding the political part - much can happen and Mona Sahlin doesn´t seem that clever? When she opens her mouth people will think twice about voting on her...

 

[SlyDog]

Swedish industry has never been cheap in labour, which means they had to use cheap energy and the top end of the market. For industrial good this top end has been shrinking. Sweden is saddled with a lot of sunset industries.

In what way is that more valid when it comes to sweden compered to denmark.

Many bransches will addapt - be more efficent, windmills will be built etc

2. A lot of the major swedish coorperations have been bought by foreign interests - lets see how many more Volvoes are build in Sweden. I mean that Colin Powell has retired and he tinkers with second hand Volvoes.

Yaeh "lets see"

3. The Swedish defence Forces are of very little relevance to Nato: They can defend swedish territory - against whom???????

And is the diffrence between sweden and danmark in this case...what?

4. Sweden can defend their coastal waters - just.
So why should Nato want Sweden???

Yaeh ..or denmark?

 

[Dalregementet]

I generally agree with Grand Danois, just a few comments:

1. Swedish industry has traditionally been fuelled by cheap energy. The Waterpower resources have generally all been used. there might be some benefits from an upgrade in equipment; but nothing that will rock the world.
The load problem in Swedish power is that the water magazines are 3 weeks supply - tops - and very dependend on the precipitation.
The serious part is that any increase in energy consumption will have to be bought at a very high price.
Swedish industry has never been cheap in labour, which means they had to use cheap energy and the top end of the market. For industrial good this top end has been shrinking. Sweden is saddled with a lot of sunset industries.
2. A lot of the major swedish coorperations have been bought by foreign interests - lets see how many more Volvoes are build in Sweden. I mean that Colin Powell has retired and he tinkers with second hand Volvoes.
3. The Swedish defence Forces are of very little relevance to Nato: They can defend swedish territory - against whom???????
4. The crucial point is that the defence of Scandinavia is the defense - including the opposite shore - of the Baltic Sea. The USA and GB do not have vessels suited for these waters. We saw how poorly ships for the Baltic performed outside, when a Flyvefisken Class deployed to the Mediterainian. A 4m wave action in the Biscay sendt her in for repair on Sardinia.
The task of dominating the Baltic is rather large: It involves coastal defence - which is the task of each nation - which is why we donated a Flyvefisken class. But the real task is to keep the Russian Navy in port and secure transport at sea. Sweden can defend their coastal waters - just.
So why should Nato want Sweden???
The Baltic nations cannot be defended - except in Nato, as an attack on Estonia would result in a general war in central Europe. So the best way f.i. Germany can defend Estonia is perfecting what they are good at: Armoured Forces!
5. Regarding HomeGuards. The role of an effective Home Guard is to cover the back of the nation. The regulars will be deployed overseas. The opposition to the Home Guard will be around a reinforced infantry company - anything larger will in time provoke countermeasures. That is the task the Danish Home Guard is reorganised to lift. It doesn't take much - provided You are on the spot in time.

------------------

1. Ths - don´t bother. I work in the swedish industry. I work with automation and power for ABB. We export world wide, especially from Sweden. 10% of ABB's turnover is from Sweden alone. The know how Sweden has regarding automation and power is unique - within ABB and compared to other companies. Deleted The number of mills in Sweden is huge . Pulp, paper, metals, mining, power and chemical - and we have the same energy price as anyone else. The hydro power stands for about 45% of the Swedish electric power production. I can´t take you serious since there are so many errors in your text. Deleted

2. ???? Volvo is very successful and will continue to be that.... in Sweden. Ths - I have worked for Volvo in the past. Text deleted due to language

3. Text deleted due to language

4. Deleted

5. No comment.

Mod edit: Text deleted from post for violations of forum rules #'s 5,7,12 & 15.
-Preceptor

 

[Ths]

SlyDog: The major difference between the Danish Forces and the Swedish is that since (and to a large extend during) the cold war Danish forces have been foreseen and planned for action far from Danish territory:

1. The Frigates hunting non-existing trawler in the North Atlantic.
2. The polar patrols of Sirius.
3. The bulk of the Danish army has alway been preplanned to fight alongside the Germans - during the cold war in Slesvig - Holsten, now on the Russian Polish boarder with poles and germans.
4. The new helicopter, suffering such teething troubles, are foreseen to provide transport for a btn airborne.
5. The Airforce has always concentrated on cooperating with other Nato forces - now the main task is providing aircover for the Baltic states - and catching whatever bombers that get through that first line of defence.
After the cold war there was designated units (and they trained for it) for action far remote from Danish territory.
6. The new generation of Danish Warships are designed to operate far from Danish shores. Absalon-class, the minesweeping system, the new patrol ships (Frigates) - the corvettes are being fased out - they did not have the endurance needed. The new artic cutter - they are in reality patrol icebreakers (Niels Ebbesen class) - to sail NORTH of Greenland.

Deleted but there is no way Swedish forces are anywhere near that usefullness outside Sweden!

Mod edit: Deleted text violating forum rule #15.
-Preceptor

 

[Dalregementet]

Ths,

There are things that you have gotten all wrong. First, Sweden embraces foreign investments in Sweden and we also invest in other countries.

But you must understand that, foreign investment doesn´t mean that the "decision power" moves out of Sweden - it can actually be the opposite. I´ll give you a few examples so that you understand.

Ericsson - massive investments from other countries. Foreign investments in Ericsson is about 55% but they only have 1,9% of the votes. This is due that Sweden can have different votes depending on share type. An A-share in Ericsson is worth 1000 votes compared to a B-share that only has 1 vote. In that way, Sweden can retain control of companies even though the majority of the capital is from foreign sources.

Regarding Volvo, there is 2 Volvo. Volvo Car, which has been sold to Ford and the Volvo AB, where you have trucks, busses, heavy construction equipment, aero engines etc. Volvo AB sold the car part to Ford and used that money to buy Renault Truck division and Samsung Heavy Construction Equipment. So we sell and we buy.

Regarding Saab, there is also 2 Saab. Saab automobile, which has been sold to GM and then Saab, the defence company. Saab (defence) are owned by the Swedish state, Investor (the Wallenberg family) and BAe. The Wallenberg family controls or have a big influence in ABB, Ericsson, Atlas Copco, Electrolux, SEB (Bank), Scania, AstraZeneca and much more. Regarding Denmark, Saab bought Maersk Data Defence which is now incorporated in the Saab group. I really appreciate the (former Maersk) Tacticall product that we from now on also will promote for different Oil & Gas customers. So, in that way Denmark also benefits from strong foreign owners.

 

[Ths]

Dalregementet:

The basic difference between Danish and Swedish industry is that Danish industry has a lot of small firms and Sweden has a few large. The small firms give flexibility, but has disadvantages in economies of scale. In a changing enviroment flexibility is more important. The industries You mention are typical sunset industries. I will not enter into a debate on the pricemechanisms on energy.

Your remark on Flyvefisken was one I would have let slide, if it wasn't illustrative of a very basic misconception:
Ships are build for the waters they are intended to operate in. Flyvefisken class is an excellent ship - for the Baltic Sea and her short choppy waves! Not to mention the plug-in concept, that allows the fighting power of a big ship to be distributed on several small.

Actually You feed one of my pet prejudices: Discussing naval architecture with a Swede is like asking a person born blind about the colours. Does Gustav Vasa or Kronan ring a bell? I consider the Swedish submarine programme a final admission of defeat: You given up hope that any of your contraption will actually float!

 

[Ths]

So the Wallenbergs are influential... You still insist on calling Sweden a democracy: We have problems enough with Mærsk - they are big; but very restrained politically.

The crucial point is that foreign investments can disinvest with the snap of a finger. This current crisis on the international investment market will probably hit Sweden far more than Denmark.
Building windmills may be quixotic, but there appear to be a market for them.
Actually - in the short term - the panik might benefit Swedish industry, as these shares may be on the rising stern of the Titanic.

 

[SlyDog]

SlyDog: The major difference between the Danish Forces and the Swedish is that since (and to a large extend during) the cold war Danish forces have been foreseen and planned for action far from Danish territory:

1. The Frigates hunting non-existing trawler in the North Atlantic.
2. The polar patrols of Sirius.
3. The bulk of the Danish army has alway been preplanned to fight alongside the Germans - during the cold war in Slesvig - Holsten, now on the Russian Polish boarder with poles and germans.
4. The new helicopter, suffering such teething troubles, are foreseen to provide transport for a btn airborne.
5. The Airforce has always concentrated on cooperating with other Nato forces - now the main task is providing aircover for the Baltic states - and catching whatever bombers that get through that first line of defence.
After the cold war there was designated units (and they trained for it) for action far remote from Danish territory.
6. The new generation of Danish Warships are designed to operate far from Danish shores. Absalon-class, the minesweeping system, the new patrol ships (Frigates) - the corvettes are being fased out - they did not have the endurance needed. The new artic cutter - they are in reality patrol icebreakers (Niels Ebbesen class) - to sail NORTH of Greenland.

I'm not underestimating the Swedish efforts (doubt it is possible), but there is no way Swedish forces are anywhere near that usefullness outside Sweden!

Ths: Everything you write make sense in a selfexplanible way - all this happen becouse you are part of NATO...so?

Are you aware about the change in sweden when it comes to defence (and politics in general)- I really wonder. For 20 yaers ago would an operation in a somewhat close cooperation with NATO (as in Afghanistan) been unthinkable. Sweden are included in "Partnership for Peace" ,participate in many exercises. I think most off the equipment are nowdays adapted to NATO-standard, it seems to be pretty much cooperation between sweden and US in R&D-area, sweden are now member in EU.....ect, ect, ect...all this happen during 15 yaers or so. And you say "nothing have happened"...ok

 

[SlyDog]

So the Wallenbergs are influential... You still insist on calling Sweden a democracy: We have problems enough with Mærsk - they are big; but very restrained politically.

The crucial point is that foreign investments can disinvest with the snap of a finger. This current crisis on the international investment market will probably hit Sweden far more than Denmark.
Building windmills may be quixotic, but there appear to be a market for them.
Actually - in the short term - the panik might benefit Swedish industry, as these shares may be on the rising stern of the Titanic.

Ths : Are you doing anything else than "blackpainting" - every time you descibe anything "sweden related" its to 99,99% very negative -at least

 

[Dalregementet]

So the Wallenbergs are influential... You still insist on calling Sweden a democracy: We have problems enough with Mærsk - they are big; but very restrained politically.

The crucial point is that foreign investments can disinvest with the snap of a finger. This current crisis on the international investment market will probably hit Sweden far more than Denmark.
Building windmills may be quixotic, but there appear to be a market for them.
Actually - in the short term - the panik might benefit Swedish industry, as these shares may be on the rising stern of the Titanic.

--------------

First, regarding danish shipbuilding... well, the Swedish ships HMS Gävle and Sundsvall from the 4th naval squadron managed to sail down to the mediterranian, and back, without any problems (www.4sjostridsflj.mil.se/index.php?lang=S&c=news&id=38472) .

Your reference to an event more than 300 years ago shows that it was a long time since denmark did anything useful in this context . Regarding Swedish submarines, they are rated as state of the art and it´s no surprise that the US is leasing one in order to do anti submarine exercises (http://www.knbc.com/news/10116514/detail.html?rss=la&psp=news). The story behind is that a Swedish sub was able to sneak up to a US carrier (50 meters away) without being detected and take som photographs to document the event.

Yes Sweden is a democracý allowing free enterprises - we´re not a communist country... I agree that there are always fluctuations on the world market but that´s something we can handle. And that "snap with a finger" is something I only hear leftist's say. Totally unrealistic!

And I agree, If we would work with something more basic like... pig farms, then it probably would be more secure - I mean people always need to eat . But then again, the profits are not good enough .

Building wind mills is of course a good thing and something for the future. Ehh, but I know that Vestas will get some new competitors and that is less fun... Also, the components that wind mills need are most often from ABB plus the power transmission technology (HVDC). HVDC is needed for secure and efficient power distribution - swedish technology of course. So, it´s not that big margin left when you have paid all suppliers

 

[Ths]

Sly dog:

It's a bit more complicated than that:

During WW1 we were able to keep out of it - just and with the skin of our teeth.
WW2 showed to our dismay, that - in spite of all political and diplomatic tricks - it was impossible for us to stay out of trouble - even if the occupation of Denmark was a consequence of the occupation of Norway - and thus not in itself an agression against Denmark - which by the way troubled the German administration tremendiously.

Any thought of a Nordic Defence Pact after WW2 - which had been investigated during the 1930'ies - was stillborn - despite great efforts from Danish side.
If we were to survive as a nation we had to enter the NATO and thus accept the premises of NATO, which determines the Danish military into the smallest detail. Not that we don't have influence in areas of expertise: Prominently the naval operations in the Arctic.

As an aside: If dalregementet wanted to slam a Danish shipconstruction he should have chosen "Beskytteren" - I've heard of a sister hull where the thrustblock was nearly torn away in following sea: Beskytteren is now the flagship of the Estonian Navy where the sensitivity to Atlantic following seas is not critical.

During the cold war we cooperated very closely with Germany and Jyske Division was in Corps with 6.PzGre - a construction taken up generally by NATO after the cold war. As the junior partner in that cooperation we reaped advantages beyond our contribution.

The Swedish problem is that there is no real substitute for 60 years of Deleted... erh cross training on all levels command and private. I recall being shown the Roland by a German Unteroffizier - danish talking by the way - as a mere HomeGuard Private!
At the other end of the scale: Immediately after 9-11 our prime minister publicly declared our secret files open to US inspection - normally secret services trade their secrets. Believe me that has paid off.

If Nato was desperate, then Sweden might be able to get a good deal; but not now.

Mod edit: Text deleted for violating forum rules #'s 8 & 15.
-Preceptor

 

[swerve]

Ths : Are you doing anything else than "blackpainting" - every time you descibe anything "sweden related" its to 99,99% very negative -at least

No, he doesn't. Hence my previous question.

 

[SlyDog]

THS

Jaha? It doesnt make much sense to debate and discuss with anybody who have "looked the door and thrown the key".

Some off your points is behaps valid - and I'm sure you know alot more than me about the subject we talk here - but it doesnt disable me complitly to recognize your way too argument in many ways are pure Text deleted due to language..

Besides: The future is pretty much unknown.

Edit:

Swerwe, i dont understand you, what "previous question"?

Mod edit: Deleted text for violating forum rule #5.
-Preceptor

 

[Dalregementet]

Sly dog:

It's a bit more complicated than that:

During WW1 we were able to keep out of it - just and with the skin of our teeth.
WW2 showed to our dismay, that - in spite of all political and diplomatic tricks - it was impossible for us to stay out of trouble - even if the occupation of Denmark was a consequence of the occupation of Norway - and thus not in itself an agression against Denmark - which by the way troubled the German administration tremendiously.

Any thought of a Nordic Defence Pact after WW2 - which had been investigated during the 1930'ies - was stillborn - despite great efforts from Danish side.
If we were to survive as a nation we had to enter the NATO and thus accept the premises of NATO, which determines the Danish military into the smallest detail. Not that we don't have influence in areas of expertise: Prominently the naval operations in the Arctic.

As an aside: If dalregementet wanted to slam a Danish shipconstruction he should have chosen "Beskytteren" - I've heard of a sister hull where the thrustblock was nearly torn away in following sea: Beskytteren is now the flagship of the Estonian Navy where the sensitivity to Atlantic following seas is not critical.

During the cold war we cooperated very closely with Germany and Jyske Division was in Corps with 6.PzGre - a construction taken up generally by NATO after the cold war. As the junior partner in that cooperation we reaped advantages beyond our contribution.

The Swedish problem is that there is no real substitute for 60 years of cross dressing... erh cross training on all levels command and private. I recall being shown the Roland by a German Unteroffizier - danish talking by the way - as a mere HomeGuard Private!
At the other end of the scale: Immediately after 9-11 our prime minister publicly declared our secret files open to US inspection - normally secret services trade their secrets. Believe me that has paid off.

If Nato was desperate, then Sweden might be able to get a good deal; but not now.

Oh, I can be very positive about Sweden - now You ask for it: I have more than once stated, that I consider Sweden excellent for dumping toxic waste and incarcerating criminally insane.

I wonder where Grand Danois are right now? Or have danes an exception to the forum rules

 

[Grand Danois]

I wonder where Grand Danois are right now? Or have danes an exception to the forum rules

Yes they have (not). I read this paragraph the way it was meant.

 

[Ths]

Don't worry Grand Danois: My artistic skill is not to drawing cartoons!