I'd bet on load balancing. The new plant won't have the luxury that the 90+ Western European plants have, balancing on the Western international grids.
The Baltic region - future influence and power
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Dalregementet
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Lithuania generates about 19 TWh/year and the link would provide an additional 1 TWh, that is 5% extra. Hardly "load balancing".
Read this article (Let´s get connected): irzikevicius.wordpress.com/2008/02/08/lithuania-%E2%80%93-sweden-%E2%80%98let%E2%80%99s-get-connected%E2%80%99/
By the way... the type of cable that allows this huge transmission (up to 3000 MW) is a Swedish invention (HVDC) and the worlds largest HVDC lab is in Ludvika, Sweden.
Brainpower!True. All seven battalions. If they didnt release the conscripts early due to financial problems. Again.
Dalregementet
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Energy and Power
Both links are on 1000 MW (1 TW) and Sweden will export energy not import - always that negative attitude about Sweden... The link will provide Lithuania with an additional 5% electricity - this is not load balancing.
Sweden has 10 nuclear reactors, Europes largest resources of hydro power and vast resources of bio energy. Sweden produces about 140 TWh per year, Lithuania 19 TWh and Denmark about 40 TWh. But then, 90% of the Swedish energy is from sources that doesn´t have carbondioxid emissions.For Denmark it´s the opposite with 75% of the energy from sources that emitt carbondioxid ... (figures from 2004)
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Both links are on 1000 MW (1 TW) and Sweden will export energy not import - always that negative attitude about Sweden... The link will provide Lithuania with an additional 5% electricity - this is not load balancing.
Sweden has 10 nuclear reactors, Europes largest resources of hydro power and vast resources of bio energy. Sweden produces about 140 TWh per year, Lithuania 19 TWh and Denmark about 40 TWh. But then, 90% of the Swedish energy is from sources that doesn´t have carbondioxid emissions.For Denmark it´s the opposite with 75% of the energy from sources that emitt carbondioxid
... (figures from 2004)Dalregementet
New Member
I agree that we should have a larger field army besides our territorial defence of about 100 000 men, but you need to get to Sweden first... We have a quite large air force and the navy are still strong. The only credible threat, russia, are still in shambles and it will take a long time for them to build up something that is usable...
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Yup I know the figures and configuration of both the Danish and Swedish electricity production.-----------------------------------------
Both links are on 1000 MW (1 TW) and Sweden will export energy not import - always that negative attitude about Sweden... The link will provide Lithuania with an additional 5% electricity - this is not load balancing.
Sweden has 10 nuclear reactors, Europes largest resources of hydro power and vast resources of bio energy. Sweden produces about 140 TWh per year, Lithuania 19 TWh and Denmark about 40 TWh. But then, 90% of the Swedish energy is from sources that doesn´t have carbondioxid emissions.For Denmark it´s the opposite with 75% of the energy from sources that emitt carbondioxid
Sweden is a net importer from all its neighbours. There is nothing to draw from the Swedish grid for export.
The generating capacity isn't there.
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Dalregementet
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This is of course wrong
. The production capability is there and increasing. It works like this, that you buy when the price is cheapest - there is a common nordic market, and you sell to the one who pays best. The supply and demand is handled by Nordel (nordel.org). If the demand increases, then Swedish producers increases hydro- and nuclear production. They can also startup backup power facilities. Sweden can get a minus of 170 MW on "Peak demand which historically happens once every ten year" - I think those days are forever gone with this non existing winter... You have a decreasing energy demand in Sweden due to warmer winters, increased output from Hydro and nuclear energy and then the industry is very active in lowering their energy demand. An example, the pulp mill SCA Östrand and Södra Cell Mörrum have installed burners and generators making them totally self sufficient on electricity and now they are actually able to sell electricity to other consumers.
Dalregementet
New Member
Also, to state that Sweden can´t export energy to Lithiania when Sweden and Lithuania actually have agreed to build a 1000 MW link, and where Lithuania won´t have any electricity to export for a very long time, is of course ridicolous.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
First, you assume that swedish hydropower generating capacity isn't utilised 100%?
Second, you assume that the least competitive Swedish part of "excess" generating capacity, used for internalized load balancing is available? If it is, and is competitive for export, this would be load balancing.
Third, yes, new generating capacity is added, but not at that tempo. Wind power renewable biomass, etc.. However, elements will also be shut down: the carbon emitting NG/peat, though marginal.
You won't see excess capacity to the tune of 1000 MW in the Swedish grid inside 2015.
And the Lithuanians are planning on using imported NG to generate electricity in that hiatus.
The only possible scenario would involve Sweden building one or two additional nuclear reactors on the Swedish SE coast. And that takes time too.
Load balancing.
Second, you assume that the least competitive Swedish part of "excess" generating capacity, used for internalized load balancing is available? If it is, and is competitive for export, this would be load balancing.
Third, yes, new generating capacity is added, but not at that tempo. Wind power renewable biomass, etc.. However, elements will also be shut down: the carbon emitting NG/peat, though marginal.
You won't see excess capacity to the tune of 1000 MW in the Swedish grid inside 2015.
And the Lithuanians are planning on using imported NG to generate electricity in that hiatus.
The only possible scenario would involve Sweden building one or two additional nuclear reactors on the Swedish SE coast. And that takes time too.
Load balancing.
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Dalregementet
New Member
I think it´s an obvious assumption that we are not using 100% right now. The peak consumption that I mentioned and where we would import 170 MW which is nothing in this context, is when we have extreme cold in the whole country with temperatures of about -25 degrees celsius. So, yes, if you look at the currenmt weather in Sweden, how it has been the last year and the forecast a few weeks ahead you will see that our consumption is low with respect to that it actually is winter time.
We won´t build a 1000MW link to Lithuania if we don´t have anything to send over that link. Just accept that!
Last but not least, the links from Poland and Sweden are equal in capacity.
There is not really more to add to these facts.
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Grand Danois
Entertainer
Fact: 100% of hydropower capacity (potential) is used over a year. Peaks and lows are evened out over the year which makes for 100%. Fluctuations are accounted for.
Fact: Sweden is a net importer.
Fact: No new nuclear reactors will be built in Sweden inside a decade - if ever.
Fact: The proposed powerline across the Baltic will be ready just before the new Lithuanian nuclear plant goes online - that's 3500 MW of generating capacity - more than twice of the capacity of Ignalina.
Load balancing.
Dalregementet
New Member
I understand that "asset optimization" is not your strong point. You use your production assets in an optimal way. That means for Sweden, which you missunderstand, sometimes import electricity from Norway for example due to that it is cheaper than producing ourselves. That doesn´t mean that we have reached our production maximum. And as I try to get you to understand, we are far from our production maximun since the "winter" is no winter anymore. It has been so for a number of years now with this as the warmest. I´m sitting in a cabin 500 km north of Stockholm, normally this is the coldest period in the winter but there is no snow outside and there is no ice on the baltic sea outside....
I don´t expect it to that much colder the coming years, the opposite if you trust the climate experts. So, yes, we have lots of energy to produce and sell if there is a demand.
Also, the power from the new Lithuanian powerplant will be split by the baltic countries and poland. 1 TWh is not load balancing in that context.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Perhaps I do understand asset optimization and look at in from a "what is actually done" perspective - as in "the system is already optimized for the current situation, not for a prospective and yet hypothetical power line to Lithuania."
That is why net import matters. As does the fact that redundant capacity is usually the most expensive - otherwise there would be no need to import.
That is why net import matters. As does the fact that redundant capacity is usually the most expensive - otherwise there would be no need to import.
Dalregementet
New Member
Well good! Now, the link is going to be built and it will be on 1000MW, which is significant. It´s no use building it if Sweden can´t export energy. In one of your earlier texts, you hinted that the link was for Swedish energy needs, that Sweden would import from Lithuania and that is very much "out in the blue".
You´re righ that reserve power is expensive but as long as you have a demand and buyers, thats no problem. About 2000, the oil price per barrel was 10$ and now it more than 90$ per barrel. As I said - demand and buyers.
Between 2001 and 2006, Swedish energy production capacity increased with about 7%. During the same peroid, Swedish energy consumption decreased with about 3%. The figures for denmark are 1,7% and 2,7% - both increases, so that will be a minus for denmark in reserve capacity.
Sorce: sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elproduktion
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Yes, I suggested either load balancing or for export to Sweden - due to the massive generating capacity of the Ignalina replacement. I don't know who the customers will be though.
Load balancing is probably the answer.
Both Sweden and Denmark will have to look very carefully at the sources over the coming years, particularly as new nuclear facilities are ruled out.
Windpower will play a role in this, e.g. last year Vattenfall announced it would spend 10 bn sek on wind turbines and preparing the grid for approp load distribution. Denmark will build a number of huge off shore wind farms and probably also a cable under Storebælt in order to better internalize the fluctuations from wind power. But even that will not be enough and biomass will have to take a huge part in it, in order to have baseload and redundancy.
It is a boondoggle without nuclear.
Well, 'nuff said.
Load balancing is probably the answer.
Both Sweden and Denmark will have to look very carefully at the sources over the coming years, particularly as new nuclear facilities are ruled out.
Windpower will play a role in this, e.g. last year Vattenfall announced it would spend 10 bn sek on wind turbines and preparing the grid for approp load distribution. Denmark will build a number of huge off shore wind farms and probably also a cable under Storebælt in order to better internalize the fluctuations from wind power. But even that will not be enough and biomass will have to take a huge part in it, in order to have baseload and redundancy.
It is a boondoggle without nuclear.
Well, 'nuff said.
What 100000 soldiers are you refering to?
Dalregementet
New Member
Home guard are about 40 000 men. Officers, regular and reserve, about 22000, the rest are trained conscripts. Then, one thing is active units but Swedens ability to fast increase in size is considerable. A main bottleneck for increasing is material. Sweden still has 280 Leopard 2 tanks and about 500 CV 90 which is quite a lot.
Dalregementet
New Member
-----Yes, I suggested either load balancing or for export to Sweden - due to the massive generating capacity of the Ignalina replacement. I don't know who the customers will be though.
Load balancing is probably the answer.
Both Sweden and Denmark will have to look very carefully at the sources over the coming years, particularly as new nuclear facilities are ruled out.
Windpower will play a role in this, e.g. last year Vattenfall announced it would spend 10 bn sek on wind turbines and preparing the grid for approp load distribution. Denmark will build a number of huge off shore wind farms and probably also a cable under Storebælt in order to better internalize the fluctuations from wind power. But even that will not be enough and biomass will have to take a huge part in it, in order to have baseload and redundancy.
It is a boondoggle without nuclear.
Well, 'nuff said.
Almost... I talked to a friend of mine working with Power technology and he told me that all Swedish nuclear powerplants will upgrade their output with 15% in the next coming year. Since one Barseback reactor already has stopped, that will mean that Sweden will add "half a nuclear reactor" in increased capacity within a year. Also, the hydro power plants are also
being upgraded, becoming more efficient. So extra resources are and will to an even higher extent be availiable.
now 'nuff said
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Those numbers are not accurate. Home Guard passed 25000 last year, going down. Conscripts are mobilization-only, except for the 3rd term volunteers who amount to roughly 1800 soldiers. The quality of the Homeguard is heavily disputed even within the armed forces, and can at best be considered to be a well disciplined collection of small units capable of conducting limited surveillance and guardduties. Swedens ability to quickly enlargen the amount of soldiers is severly limited, even when counting the strategic readiness reserve. Partly due to an officercorps heavily overaged.
Dalregementet
New Member
There are 42 000 home guard soldiers (officail figures!) in 69 home guard battalions. They have, in general, a general conscript training as a basis, often much more.
These troops have naturally a lower quality than the field army but is something an agressor have to take into account since they are well armed and skilled in handling their arms. The big difference is stamina but that is also not required in the same degree as in the field army. However, as I said before, it´s quite easy for Sweden to grow in size as long as we have the weapons required, and today we have. An attack doesn´t come from a blue sky, there is first a long period of deteriorating international relations before a war. Countries that doesn´t have additional weaponry will find it difficult to aquire weapons systems in a pre war phase.
Also, Sweden and Finland have an ambition to join Nato and a likely target year is 2015, at least that is what the Swedish defence minister stated a few days ago. The most interesting part with his declaration is that there is no discussion about it afterwards... which means that people are getting used to the thought of being Nato members and that it´s less controversial than earlier.
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