Due to flooding caused by Typhoons in Korea no one will be doing any type of movement. If North Korea was to attack it would happen during the winter months when the ground is frozen.
North Korea VS South Korea
- Thread starter yutong chen
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I just painted a picture that the PLA could use as a deception to make NK believe that they are on their side.
It may take them a long time to get fully integrated, if at all possible-before we can talk of a "unified" Korea. That process won't be smooth, and China will have to intervene there anyway. For what it's worth, I hope a comparison with Mongolia is in order:
It's been divided into 3 parts by Russia & China-
1. Byryat Autonomous Republic, now part of the RF;
2. Inner Mongolian Automous Region, part of the PRC;
3. Mongolian Republic, aka Outer Mongolia, now politically fully independent
So, the outer Mongolia sandwitched between #1 & #2 was a buffer state for both Russian and Chinese Empires, and after WWII and until 1991, for the USSR.
For the PRC, there is a lot more at stake in N. Korea than in Mongolia, for many economic, historic & geopolitical reasons.
Then that would be total war for China, South Korea and its people would not tolerate any type of Chinese influence. China and the rest of the world is going to have to accept the fact that both South and North Korea belong to each other as one people, no more Chinese, Japanese, Russian or American influence can keep them apart unless all sides are willing to go to total war. China has nothing to worry about with a whole Korea on their border, they have been dealing with the Russians for how long now and surely that is more of a threat to them than a country who will spend the next few decades fixing a very big mess in North Korea, how long did it take Germany after they were reunited as one to get things normalized. South Korea is not arming herself to the teeth for nothing, plus she is a economic power house who will not let any country dictate policy to her when it comes to her best interests including my country. Korea needs to be reunited and treated with respect. China should use caution, Korean people do have bad tempers, they say it is because of their Mongol bloodline.:shudder
Agreed, plus the U.S really doesn`t want to be there any longer, so it would not be really too hard to ask us to leave and be long distance Chingos.
It remains to be seen if this is even possible, with so much bad blood of hundreds of thousands dead. This is not Germany.
Still, you can trust the Chicom and NK to bargain so hard for a lot of concessions that may make it unacceptable to ROK.
My original post was longer and included a section on "buffer states" of China which I deleted - too many points.
If you look at the map I posted in my original post, look for the following names:
North Korea, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet, Burma, Vietnam.
These places form a almost complete 360 ring around China. With the exception of Vietnam, the rest are either client states, or under PLA control, or in the case of Vietnam, is kept in check militarily.
From the people who brought you the Great Wall, this is the modern version. A protective ring of buffer states. These places are on hair trigger as far as the paranoid Chinese are concerned.
If anyone is still unsure why the PLA invaded Tibet, here's the reason. Or if any "Free Tibet" hippie think a guitar-strumming pop concert will cause the PLA to pack up and leave, he should stop smoking dem thangs.
The Chinese know enough not to get involved in Korea in that way. These 2 cultures have thousand years of exchanges, good and bad.
Yes, China has always wanted Korea to be united. But just not under the US-bed partner South Koreans.
The geo-political situation on the Russian border is slightly different. Russia and China had border clashes, nothing more serious.
OTOH the Korean peninsula is a powder keg, and it is also the doorway for bad things to happen. On that side China faces ROK, Japan, Taiwan and worse of all, USA.
Bad tempers or Mongolian bloodline did not prevent the Koreans from being colonized over and over and over throughout history. Sorry, no one is intimidated by bad tempers. Mongolia, as you already know, is nicely carved up into pieces.
Contrary to what you said, the Chinese have always treated the Koreans as a close relative - the North Koreans that is. There are ethnic Koreans on the Chinese side of the border for generations. (And vice versa.) They have not faced persecution or discrimination. Chinese and Korean cultures are very similar and both are Confucian-based.
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Oh no! The PRC will not intervene on North Koreas side. China regards N. Korea as a problem, & S. Korea as a normal state with which it can deal on good terms. It will not, ever, help N. Korea against the south, unless the south attacks.
Not many, which is one reason why it'll collapse if it attacks. Chinese supplies will instantly dry up.
How do you arrive at Vietnam? China invaded Vietnam in 1979 and from all reports paid for it. They withdraw after 'teaching Vietnam a lesson" but the truth appears that they had performed badly against outnumbered militia forces (a signficant proportion of Vietnamese troops ere in cambodia).
In the 80's Vietnam was a Russian ally and in current times poses a signficant economic challeges to China in some areas. They certainly do not cow tow to China and follow their own path which suggests they are far from a 'buffer state'.
Yes, China supported NK as counterbalance to USA presence in SK. But in case of open conflict i very much doubt China will give NK anything more than just military supplies of average quality and quantity - if even that. NK became much too insignificant, and China greatly rose in power. As such, China dont need NK now.
Yes, but that potential bad temper is matched up to a economy that is becoming a powerhouse, ROK is not a poor country like Mongolia. And you are kidding right with the brotherly love between China and Korea, former Soviet influence was more firmly implanted in place in North Korea versus Chinese influence, South Koreans do not trust the Chinese and they do have a dark history in their existance, but on that same note ROK does invest in China and they do have a good relationship, which China would also factor in before letting the balloon go for war, its all about money.The Chinese know enough not to get involved in Korea in that way. These 2 cultures have thousand years of exchanges, good and bad.
Yes, China has always wanted Korea to be united. But just not under the US-bed partner South Koreans.
The geo-political situation on the Russian border is slightly different. Russia and China had border clashes, nothing more serious.
OTOH the Korean peninsula is a powder keg, and it is also the doorway for bad things to happen. On that side China faces ROK, Japan, Taiwan and worse of all, USA.
Bad tempers or Mongolian bloodline did not prevent the Koreans from being colonized over and over and over throughout history. Sorry, no one is intimidated by bad tempers. Mongolia, as you already know, is nicely carved up into pieces.
Contrary to what you said, the Chinese have always treated the Koreans as a close relative - the North Koreans that is. There are ethnic Koreans on the Chinese side of the border for generations. (And vice versa.) They have not faced persecution or discrimination. Chinese and Korean cultures are very similar and both are Confucian-based.
Actually, most of us are assuming Firehorse is wrong and China will not support NK, & are baffled by his insistence that China will act against what everyone else sees as its own interests.
I don't want to go into 'out of topic' of this thread but I want to mention simply about the facts.
1. there is no evidence of direct genetical Molgolian blood line of Koreans. Well, the two people are similar but compared to other neighbourhoods it is not significantly close. Though many Korean people believe the close relation of Mongolians, Japanese and north-eastern ethnic groups of China are closer genetically.
2. In Chinese history, Korea was continually colonised but it is a political term. There was no direct governmental control of China but there were political relations with feudalism. For example, did Holy Roman Empire colonise the western european countries? no. But Politically, it was respected. The classical diplomatic relation is exaggerated by China. There was no residential chinese colonialist in korea. Korea had its own independent government, army, and economy. Without diplomatic emissary, there was no interaction between them. Even trade was only accepted by following the emissary. The only exception in Korean history is Ching Dynasty's Yuan Shikai's intervention between 1884-1894. But it was not the internal control but the diplomatic counter action against Japan. Of course Ching was defeated by Japan soon. In fact, China is colonised by Hun, Mongolians, Manchurians, etc. throughout the history in terms of residential movement and direct political control.
3. Usually, Chinese think Korean culture is close to their culture but Koreans do not agree with it. According to current Chinese policy, every ethinic group and culture within the current boudary is 'Chinese.' Therefore, Chinese think 'asian culture' is chinese. From Uighur and Tibetan to Korean and Manchurian culture, even Thai culture (Dali) are considered as a part of Chinese culture. It is useful method to control the big country. Nevertheless, neighbour countries use different language, clothes, housing, and food from 80% of Chinese, Han.
Evri
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"China achieved a strategic victory by minimizing the future possibility of a two-front war against the USSR and Vietnam."
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/prc-vietnam.htm
The above quote paints for you the very desperate situation back when China was skirmishing with Russian military in the north, and Vietnam in the south. Putting one and one together, it is not hard for China to arrive at the conclusion that something much bigger was afoot.
If "body count" is the only measure of success or failure, then, shall we declare US the victor of the Vietnam War and Russia the victor of the Afghanistan War....?
That the PLA's performance was poor is undoubted. But you must see from the POV of "war being an extension of diplomacy".
Had China had not boldly invaded Vietnam, Russia and Vietnam might have gotten ideas about attacking first. At least this was what China feared.
The invasion took both Vietnam and Russia by surprise and showed a resolve they didn't think China had against such odds.
The invasion also proved conclusively that Russia will not intervene directly in Vietnam's favour. This must have given Vietnam a lot of second thoughts about its neat little arrangements with Russia.
"Beijing's policy was actually a diplomatic success, since Moscow did not actively intervene, thus showing the practical limitations of the Soviet-Vietnamese military pact."
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/prc-vietnam.htm
In other words, a bad invasion was better than if China had just sat on its hands doing fxxkall. It eliminated any further thoughts of a combined pact against China. Instead it put Vietnam on the defensive.
No matter how badly China did in the 1979 invasion, Vietnam clearly will not want to invite another invasion, will they? And they did not introduce any foreign powers into the border region to cause further aggravation.
Therefore, I qualify Vietnam as a "buffer" for China against foreign powers. They only have to maintain the status quo there. China is clearly in no danger of being invaded by Vietnam. And as tension continue to ease, each side can reduce the number of divisions stationed there.
Completely wrong, dude.
Remind me... since when did China agree to a US military solution? That's a wet dream for the West and a nightmare for China.
You guys living in the west, have no idea of how much China dread the prospect of the US coming anywhere near the Chinese border.
I hope the US is not misreading China like you all are. Otherwise we're all in deep shxt.
C'mon... that's ridiculous and frankly quite childish subject to pursue with all due respects... For e.g. are Americans "bad tempered" as a people? NO. Yet they won the friggin' WW2. So please move on...Please don't put words in my mouth to forward your argument. Where did I say "brotherly love"?
Many N Koreans live in China. Many Chinese live in N Korea. Fact.
Many North Koreans fought with the Chicoms against the Japs and the Nationalists. Many Chinese returned the favour in Korea. Fact.
And Soviet influence changed... what?
Where, did I say S Koreans trust the Chinese?
Over simplifying.
It is ridiculous to suggest that China will sacrifice her border security over trade with one single country like South Korea.
If a US-sponsored invasion of N Korea is successful, China will be within arty range of US military. Now tell me how is that supposed to help the Chicom continue thinking about making money?
I'm not talking about a US military solution, Where did you get that idea from? Nor the US coming near Chinas border. BTW, why does China dread the prospect of US troops on its border? Think about that for a while, then think about what a land war between China & the USA in Korea means.
Think it through: if North Korea invades the south, where do Chinas interests lie? In N. Korean victory? Of course not! That would cost China a fortune, & leave the biggest liability on its borders even more of a problem. The best hope for China is a swift defeat of N. Korean forces. Chinas main problem is how to manage the aftermath.
China might benefit from intervening, but not to fight either the USA or S. Korea. Any intervention can be prepared by demanding a UN-supervised ceasefire, offering to mediate, announcing that China will do all it can to ensure humanitarian aid reaches the victims of the war, etc., etc., while privately contacting other governments & expressing concern about the fate of N. Korean nuclear & chemical weapons & hinting at the need for them to be made safe. Present itself as a peacemaker & protector of general international interests. Chinese troops can then move in to seize N. Korean WMD bases & secure lines of communication to them, & to occupy border areas to 1) prevent a flood of refugees across the border (corral them on the N. Korean side, & call for international assistance to feed them), & 2) keep the US forces away from the border. It can then bargain the occupied areas away as part of a general settlement involving US withdrawal.
Tell me again about that US military solution.
But there is a fundamental difference between a possible unprovoced attack of NK against the south without consulting the Chinese government (Remember the more or less successfull bomb test?) and an offensive military action by the USA to solve the problem of the "axis of evil".
I think nobody here denies that such an offensive move by the US is going to provoke a very harsh reaction by the Chinese.
But the majority here is just thinking that the Chinese support for an unprovoced attack by NK without consulting them is not going to end with the same result.
Chinese are not dumb.
There is a real possibility that if Korea gets united there will be no foreign troops on their soil anymore. It is not going to be that hard for the Koreans to make the US leave the country.
So China would have a united Korea on their border without US presence on their border. Right now SK is one of the big trading partners of China in this region and they have a normal relationship.
And the costs and problems of a reunification are going to give the Koreans so many headaches that China can count on them being totally busy with that for the next decades.
This is not East and West Germany when it comes to economy. East Germany was still the richest country of the eastern sattelite states while NK is just dark...
BTW, to go even further off-topic.
Isn't it a popular theory that the Japanese Islands have been colonised by people from all over the Asian coast be it Koreans from the south or people from Siberia from the north (resulting in the Ainu in the north) and that especially from the beginning of the Yayoi-time (300b.c.-300a.d.) more and more Korean settlers arrived at the Islands and influenced the later Japanese culture alot.
I think nobody here denies that such an offensive move by the US is going to provoke a very harsh reaction by the Chinese.
But the majority here is just thinking that the Chinese support for an unprovoced attack by NK without consulting them is not going to end with the same result.
Chinese are not dumb.
There is a real possibility that if Korea gets united there will be no foreign troops on their soil anymore. It is not going to be that hard for the Koreans to make the US leave the country.
So China would have a united Korea on their border without US presence on their border. Right now SK is one of the big trading partners of China in this region and they have a normal relationship.
And the costs and problems of a reunification are going to give the Koreans so many headaches that China can count on them being totally busy with that for the next decades.
This is not East and West Germany when it comes to economy. East Germany was still the richest country of the eastern sattelite states while NK is just dark...
BTW, to go even further off-topic.
Isn't it a popular theory that the Japanese Islands have been colonised by people from all over the Asian coast be it Koreans from the south or people from Siberia from the north (resulting in the Ainu in the north) and that especially from the beginning of the Yayoi-time (300b.c.-300a.d.) more and more Korean settlers arrived at the Islands and influenced the later Japanese culture alot.
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