A hypothetical EU force structure

[Waylander]

There are not that many Leopards left in storage and I would be happy if we keep them there ready for reactivation if the need arises.

Apart from upgrading some of them to PSO standard I would save the money and stay with A4s in the warehouses.
If a really big danger is coming our way there should be enough time to upgrade the reserve Leopards.

The rest is already sold anyway and development goes on.
Maybe there is also money left for restarting the Leopard successor project and push it a little bit.

 

[Grand Danois]

And ISR? Go ahead with AGS? What to get instead of the Eurohawk? I'm assuming Global Hawk will no longer be available.

Yikes! Just found out the Airbus 321 has been dropped from the AGS.

NATO Axes Airbus From AGS System

By PIERRE TRAN
November 19, 2007

NATO has quietly dropped a planned Airbus 321 sensor aircraft and its yet-to-be-developed radar from its Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS) eye-in-the-sky program, more than halving the planned price tag and relying solely on American-built, high-altitude, long-endurance Global Hawk UAVs, a NATO official said.

In response, France, once a full partner in the AGS program, has reduced its support and will now merely be associated with it, a second NATO official said.

Germany and other partners had balked at the planned 3.3 billion-euro ($4.8 billion) cost of a mixed Airbus-and-UAV fleet, the first official said.
The scaled-back program would consist of eight Global Hawks and an off-the-shelf radar, and carry a price tag of less than 1.5 billion euros, a French defense official said.

An Oct. 25-26 meeting of NATO's Conference of National Armaments Directors confirmed a July decision by the program committee to scratch the A321.

etc...

 

[kato]

Mmm, let's see...

1) Iirc Netherlands has the only strike-length Mk41. Germany and Spain have tactical (?). Scalp Naval wouldn't be necessarily the solution there, maybe you could dig out that KEPD350 Taurus naval version for that. Might be a bit too big, but reworkable for Mk41 just like Scalp Naval for Sylver.

2) ESSM: couple solutions.
a) Diehl gets ESSM production deal (they're a "industrial team member" for ESSM anyway, the whole thing is a NATO affair)
b) Switch to a different missile adapted to Mk25 ESSM canisters. VL Mica, LFK NG or similar would probably be workable in some regard.

3) MPAs: I'd suggest a medium-term euro-wide switch to Casa CN-235MP, backed-up with some medium-sized longer-range Airbus frame with EADS electronics in some nations (UK, FR, GE). Basically, just what's planned/thought of for the most part anyway as P-3 replacement.

 

[kato]

Maybe there is also money left for restarting the Leopard successor project and push it a little bit.

You mean the one finally dropped 10 years ago in favour of A5 and A6?

There are not that many Leopards left in storage and I would be happy if we keep them there ready for reactivation if the need arises.

Couple hundred maybe in Germany. Another 200 or 300 in other nations (eg Switzerland, Sweden).

I'd support some being reactivated - say keep it up at 500 active for Germany (10 btls + RÜZ/GÜZ) in 2017, but that's about it.

For overview, MBTs in the EU at the moment, numbers very roughly:
MLC70
1,700+ Leopard 2
350+ Challenger 2
MLC60
300+ Leclerc
200+ Ariete
200+ Leopard 1
MLC50
700+ AMX-30
400+ T-72 variants

Definitely at least needs some consolidation.

 

[Waylander]

Yeah, exactly that.
One cannot upgrade the Leopard indefenitely and if one wants to field a new platform in, let's say, 2020-2025 one has to start.
Maybe in cooperation with the UK, Italy and others, but I don't believe that France wants to get rid of the Leclerc that soon.

If you beef up the tank bns from 6 to 10 one also needs to add some more mech inf bns (currently 8 active + 1? reserve). I would even say if one has to decide between more mech inf or more tank I would choose the mech inf. They can be better used during most oversea deployments without giving up too much hard punch.

I could also envision to station some more Leopards from the stocks at the GÜZ and RÜZ Nord which could be used to increase training without having to redeploy whole companies and bns. Wiring and preparing the tanks for RÜZ costs time which could be used for more training, live fire runs, etc.
And one wouldn't run down the frontline equipment that fast.

This new program could also lead to a better consolidation of the current heavy forces in europe.

 

[XaNDeR]

You mean the one finally dropped 10 years ago in favour of A5 and A6?


Couple hundred maybe in Germany. Another 200 or 300 in other nations (eg Switzerland, Sweden).

I'd support some being reactivated - say keep it up at 500 active for Germany (10 btls + RÜZ/GÜZ) in 2017, but that's about it.

For overview, MBTs in the EU at the moment, numbers very roughly:
MLC70
1,700+ Leopard 2
350+ Challenger 2
MLC60
300+ Leclerc
200+ Ariete
200+ Leopard 1
MLC50
700+ AMX-30
400+ T-72 variants

Definitely at least needs some consolidation.

1700 leo 2's ? Im not sure numbers of all the country's that have them , but how exactly does that number dispearse on other country's ?

 

[kato]

1700 leo 2's ? Im not sure numbers of all the country's that have them , but how exactly does that number dispearse on other country's ?

Once deliveries are complete, roughly, in the EU:

Germany: 408 (58 A4, 125 A5, 225 A6)
Greece: 353 (183 A4, 170 A6 HEL)
Spain: 327 (108 A4, 219 E)
Poland: 128 (A4)
Finland: 124 (A4)
Sweden: 120 (Strv-122)
Austria: 114 (A4)
Netherlands: 82 (A6)
Denmark: 57 (A5DK)
Portugal: 37 (A6)

Comes out to 1,750 total even. Note that that's the active stock, not including the reserves.

For European Non-EU countries, Switzerland, under Armee XXI also still operates about 200 Pz87 (A4 equivalent, with 134 planned for electronics upgrade), and Norway also operates 52 A4NO (to be upgraded to A5).

---

edit:

btw, I was understating Leo 1 numbers it seems. Within the EU, there are currently 760 Leopard 1 in various versions active (574 Greece, 132 Belgium, 54 Italy).

Most of these will disappear though:
- Italy is pretty much only waiting for funds to upgrade that last Btl with Ariete.
- Belgium is planning to retire their Leo 1 for Stryker (or something similar, 105mm gun on Piranha III anyway).
- Greece is retiring 223 older Leo 1 variants right now.

---

2nd edit:

gotta up the T72 numbers too.

Poland - 819 (586 T72M1, 135 T72M1Z, 98 PT91A)
Bulgaria - 432 (T72M2)
Czech Rep - 30 (T72M4CZ)
Slovenia - 54 (M84)
Slovakia - 51 (T72)

Total 1,386 active. Couple hundred more in reserve.

Also add some 600+ T-55 variants, mostly the 315 TR-85 in Romania. Other nations phase them out at the moment.

 

[MarcH]

In my opinon the land forces are no problem so far.

Where we would have serious issues are Navy and Airforce.
European carrier pilots are trained in the US. Additionally, the CVF+ JSF B model strike carrier solution would need an alternative.
So let's say we standardize on the French PA 2 variant to get carrier groups that operate independent. Rafale would become standard european carrier aircraft and some Hawkeyes bought from the US.
To get a running system, lets say France gets one PA 2, UK 2, Italy and Spain one each.
CdG used mostly for training purposes.

We would need an European pilot training, since ENJJPT would most probably be suspended. May be we could overcome this silly imperial measurenment system and convert to metric system.
And of course, we would need a european strategic lift command as well as a larger tanker pool.

For Germany, I would change the following:
Heer: Split the 10. Panzerdivision. Add one mech. infantery brigade to 10. Panzerdivision, and form with Gebirgsjägerbrigade 23 and one new light infantery brigade an addtional division.

Luftwaffe: No short term changes.

Marine: Add one additonal F-124. Expand the F-125 order to 8 vessels, and add a Sylver VLS to the design, including Aster 15/30.
Four large LHD and 3 EGV's to improve the expeditionary capabilities.

Big ticket development programmes:
-SatCom/Link , Galilleo, additonal space survaillance.
-a new SAM system, to replace MEADS
-new heavyweight fighter. stealthy, longrange, multipurpose, prohibitive expansive
-UCAV's to supplement the beast
-ARMIGER revived
-new heavylift helicopter

 

[Waylander]

Heer: Split the 10. Panzerdivision. Add one mech. infantery brigade to 10. Panzerdivision, and form with Gebirgsjägerbrigade 23 and one new light infantery brigade an addtional division.

That's what I meant with fielding again a new 1. Gebirgsdivision while retaining full strength at the heavy divisions. The question is if one wants to make the new Division lighter than the old one or field again a similar TO&E.
I would support your idea of making it lighter.

It is not as if we are excessive with our active (or inactive) number of combat units right now.

-SatCom/Link , Galilleo, additonal space survaillance.

Isn't Galileo now back on track?
I have to admit that I have no idea of european space surveillance asstes beside HELIOS and SAR-Lupe. What does the other european countries (especially UK) have here?

a new SAM system, to replace MEADS

Maybe we could buy the US part of it and go on on our own. maybe with more EU participants. Would be a good option for an integrated future EU SAM/ABM-defense.

 

[kato]

Isn't Galileo now back on track?

Galileo is funded for 2008 (only) under the EU's compromise budget. Could still fail.

I have to admit that I have no idea of european space surveillance asstes beside HELIOS and SAR-Lupe. What does the other european countries (especially UK) have here?

France also has the Syracuse sats for milcomm, and the Pleiades-HR observation system. Italy has some series of dual-use surveillance sats, the Cosmo-Skymed-series, and the Sicral series for comms. The UK has the "Skynet" series for military comms (... they should watch that movie again, right?), and the single dual-use TopSat surveillance mini-sat.
Skynet 4/5, Syracuse-3 and Sicral-1 form the dedicated sole NATO joint system for UHF and SHF communications for the next 15 years (!).

Maybe we could buy the US part of it and go on on our own. maybe with more EU participants. Would be a good option for an integrated future EU SAM/ABM-defense.

Bleargh, MEADS. I'd say we ditch the whole thing, as it's just PAC-3 with new C3 systems anyway, and buy SAMP-T instead a couple years down the line. And with "we" i mean all Patriot users in the EU.
Gives me an idea - IRIS-T SL for ESSM replacement, IRIS-T SLS for RAM upgrade? Could fit.

 

[MarcH]

That's what I meant with fielding again a new 1. Gebirgsdivision while retaining full strength at the heavy divisions. The question is if one wants to make the new Division lighter than the old one or field again a similar TO&E.
I would support your idea of making it lighter.

It is not as if we are excessive with our active (or inactive) number of combat units right now.

Well, thought about giving them their own helicopters, making them partly airmobile. Some Tigers (with a damn gun) as scout/escort asset, some NH-90 and (now the problematic part) some CH-53. Assuming the US cuts back in numbers, we could probably buy some used examples and bring them on GS standard till the HTH ist available. Finally we would need someone to operate from those new LHD's.

The new mechanized brigade would get the PSO's, Pumas, transports and engineer kit. (In short everything you would want for playing around in no mans land)

Bleargh, MEADS. I'd say we ditch the whole thing, as it's just PAC-3 with new C3 systems anyway, and buy SAMP-T instead a couple years down the line. And with "we" i mean all Patriot users in the EU.
Gives me an idea - IRIS-T SL for ESSM replacement, IRIS-T SLS for RAM upgrade? Could fit.

Well, why not take the C3 systems from MEADS (the best part in my opinon) and merry them with SAMP/T ?

 

[kato]

Hmm, personally i like the helos right where they are - centralized in their own division, which is intended to stack units onto other divisions as needed. Eases up maintenance and training demands.

 

[Grand Danois]

TBM - MEADS is vastly superior to anything you can build from the Aster. I wouldn't go down that path. Build a completely new system or keep MEADS.

 

[Waylander]

Hmm, I would also let the helis were they are and than beef up the Jägerregiment 1 a bit.
Make a real air assault brigade out of it.
I also think we have enough CH-53 but we need to give the GS upgrade to more of them.

Mountain troops traditionally work often enough with helicopters but IMHO not often enough to justify a direct attachement.

And I wouldn't attach the Leopard IIPSO also not to a special unit but have them in a seperated pool to deploy them to the oversea missions when needed.

For normal mechanized combat a Leopard IIA6(hopefully upgraded with the EX toys) fits much better and that's what a mech brigade should be equipped with.

In the end we would also need another tank bn with Panzerbrigade 21 just having two combat bns.
And that's damn lousy!

 

[kato]

A rough overlook, ground forces...

We're looking at roughly 85 combat brigades present at the moment in the EU (for comparison: the US Army is rearranging brigade structure to shift from 33 to 42 brigades at the moment).

Mix overall is about 20% Armor Bdes, 50% nominal MechInf Bdes of various flavours, 20% light specialized infantry (paratroopers, airmobile, marines, mountain inf...), the rest are "specialized" combat bdes in some countries (couple arty bdes, air defense etc).

Don't see much reason to change this mix, overall. Or to expand this in size, realistically. Maybe a slight rearrangement in some countries to form effective brigade-level battle groups?

 

[Waylander]

But for individual countries it might be usefull to add some new brigades.

And don't foregt that the normal eastern looking brigade is smaller than the normal western one.

In the end this might seem to be enough with a united force, but as long as we have individual forces one has to look at the individual cpacities one can deliver to a mission.

 

[kato]

And don't foregt that the normal eastern looking brigade is smaller than the normal western one.

Depends really, as a lot of Eastern militaries have been forced to rearrange their brigades to NATO levels and structures in the last 5-10 years.

A tank battalion and two standard infantry battalions (each with the usual three combat coys, plus mortars and AT in the inf btl), and a mixed artillery btl backing this up, with logistics, air defence and further support also hinged at brigade level.
Sounds rather familiar, doesn't it? - That's a Romanian mechanized brigade, not a German one.

 

[Waylander]

Hmm, my mistake.

I thought that the bulke of eastern european forces is still organized in WarPac style.

Apart fromthe example, how many parts of the eastern armed forces have changed to western TO&Es?

 

[kato]

Apart fromthe example, how many parts of the eastern armed forces have changed to western TO&Es?

hmm...

Romania - supposedly about all transformed (2000 to 2002 time frame)
Hungary - "transformed" in 00-05 time frame
Czech Rep. - "transformed", 95-99 (with a lot of problems appearing)
Slovakia - "modeled after US structure"
Slovenia - reorganized ahead of joining NATO (with some German support iirc)

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - new militaries, reformed with NATO structures

Poland - ongoing transformation process, not very clear

Absolutely no idea what's going on in Bulgaria, i think i got all others there.

 

[metro]

I don't want to be a traitor or anything, but in this situation and feeling all isolated and lonely, what the heck!

I just got word that Donald Trump has obtained a new building in NYC. A whole lot of diplomats from around the world, who previously "worked" in the building, have been given 48hrs to depart the country. A bunch of flags were removed a few hours ago, while Donald's last name "TRUMP" is already up on the building. To make a long story short, our leadership has sent the UN packing. So we're kind of, sort of, definitely pulling out of the UN--the ink on the document is already dry. I didn't vote for the idiot who's now is power, so don't kill the messenger. All money that was going to the UN from us... isn't going there anymore. The new prez also wants any equipment and/or parts that has been funded, by the US (whether a complete vehicle or a simple spark-plug) to stay here or to be sent here.
That's all I know right now. I just wanted to give everyone the head's up... because I'm cool like that!

More to come if I hear anything else...
-isolated