U.S. triumph against Iran: Mission not so easy, if not impossible
I find most commentaries about U. S. military capabilities interesting and some true, but highly suspect when applied to a war plan against Iran. I tend to disagree with the notion that U. S. forces will prevail in any campaign against Iran due to their air superiority, hi-tech satellites, awesome C4 and or awe-inspiring Air force/Navy fire power. No doubt U.S has awesome military power when compared to Iran, but Iran can not be compared to Iraq for many practical reasons, and I can list few real ones.
1. Iraq had a potpourri armed forced beaten by 28 years of constant wars and internal strife. The force lacked intelligence gathering and had no functioning SAM systems, plus Iraq had no Navy at all. The Iraqi army was an empty shell incapable of any organized operation due to attrition and slow destruction by 13 years of isolation from the world, lack of training due to severe economic hardship “trade embargo and devaluation of the Iraqi Dinar”, lack of cohesion and most importantly lack of loyalty to the regime. Those adverse conditions rendered that force into national liability. Iraqi armed forces no longer had any stomach for fighting i.e. defending a tyrant who destroyed their homeland in two decades of constant internal and external reckless wars. Hence, that force was a police force kept under arms by constant regime terror “through many layers of secret police organizations” to protect the regime from internal revolution, but never a legitimate military force capable of defending the motherland even against a small regional force, let alone the mighty US of A.
2. Iraq’s armed forces were sitting ducks, as their formations, their weapons, their command and control and even the name of most of their low ranking officers were known by U.S. intelligence agencies, thanks to 13 years of UN weapon inspection teams “mostly U.S. spies”. Thus, the US army had a virtual Turkey-shoot and no real war. Iraq’s armed forces simply abandoned their weapons and went home, because they refused to fight, it was an effortless operation concluded in day one. So, the so-called Shock and Awe was nothing more than waste of U.S tax payer’s money to make a fire cracker show for Mr. Rumsfield.
Based on these facts, it’s ridiculous to compare Iran to Iraq. The following reasons “should” make US military planners very worry:
1. Iran possesses a collection of modern highly lethal anti-ship missiles in the world today. Their Navy arsenal includes large numbers of the Russian Moskit, Yakhont, and Alpha anti-ship missiles (ASMs). Iran may also have the updated Chinese Sizzler anti-ship missile in its arsenal. Iran also has the indigenously produced Noor ASM, which is based on the Chinese C-802. The Iranians version of the C-802 “NOOR” has an extended range of 200 kilometers--more than enough to span the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. The Noor ASM, by the way, is what Hezbollah used to hit the Israeli missile corvette HANIT during Israel's invasion of Lebanon in July, 2006. In short, with their ASM capability alone, the Iranians have the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz. They may even have the potential to turn the entire Persian Gulf into a "killing pond" for sinking U.S. ships. SUNBURN, C-802, Yakhont and locally made HOOT cruise missiles, when combined with the vast array of sophisticated mines that could be laid within 48 hours along Iran’s sea shores in the Persian Gulf, sea of Oman and further south in the Arabia Sea transforming these areas to “don’t enter killing zones.”
2. The Iranians have real-time satellite recon/intelligence about
Ships entering western parts of the Indian Ocean, sea of Oman,
the Arabia Sea and the Persian Gulf. The Iranians could pinpoint
the coordinates of U.S. carrier strike forces and monitor U.S.
military chatter 24/7.
3. Iran has the most cohesive, highly developed spy network in the region with real-time intelligence on U.S. forces in Iraq, Afghanistan, Qatar, UAE, S. Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Turkey and the Caspian Sea region. According to Iran’s former national security secretary Mr. Rohani: “we can not compete with America in quantity or quality of hardware, except we must surpass them in our intelligence gathering as a matter of national survival.” In contrast, U.S. has hazy “satellite based” intelligence about Iran’s military assets. U.S. Lacks accurate data or intelligence on Iran’s war fighting capabilities, so the U.S. military “especially the U.S. Navy” can get in serious trouble if Iran were to be attacked by the U.S. “God forbid.”
4. The state of readiness in Iran’s naval forces is top notch. The navy’s special-forces units are of the best trained and best equipped in the world. They are highly professional men and very motivated. The force conducts war games and exercises almost in by-weekly bases. The U.S. Navy is well aware of Iran’s naval assets, and most of these assets can not be destroyed by the U.S. Air force or the U.S. Navy unless they plan to spend the next 5 years hunting for those assets. Without getting rid of these highly threatening assets the U.S will be facing retaliation attacks all over the Gulf region and in Sea of Oman for a long time to come. It’s prudent for U.S. war planners to question the virtues of the so-called precision strikes against Iran’s infrastructure, since U.S. Air Force and Navy can not eliminate Iran’s so-called nuclear installations or stop Iran from pursuing nuclear technology, unless of course they embark on a all out war, which means bring up the draft and invade Iran with an overwhelming force and that requires a million man Army, and even then it’s merely a pipe dream since U.S. has no capacity to pacify the Iranian nation of 80 million people with a land mass exactly 4 times the size of Iraq.
Only one remark - no matter what Iran do, USA will not believe it what Iran dont want nuclear weapon. And USA is right here - intentions may change, capabilities will persist. It doesnt matter IF Iran indeed want nuclear right now. Iran MIGHT start wanting it in future - and only that matters.