Ok so back to Gripen and F16 MLU, since I really don't believe MIG29 and used Mirage F1s stand a chance.
Regarding the navy, I imagine the arrival of the 4 Goteborg would accelerate the disposal of remaining Mirnas and probably modify the plans for armament of the locally built OPVs (which would be very lightly armed). Besides, the Goteborg are very good corvettes but are already approx 20 years old, so 1 may be left at port for spares.
cheers
if 4 corvettes are to join, only 2 will be used, 2 might be used for spares.
Also, Croatia will go for Gripens, not Migs or any other aircraft, F16's where only option as Croatia would than replace them in 10-12 years time with F35's.
But now it came out that used F16 might not be so cheap after all, cost of F16 program (12 fighters Block 32 or 40) would exceed 500 million USD, us upgrading fighters to Block 50/52 would cost 10 million USD fighter, spares and supports including C3 would cost in region of another 30 million USD per fighter.
When this is all taken in to account, it would be cheaper to get JAS 39 C/D (E/F upgrade) at cost of 800 million USD and than have good fighter for next 25-30 years than to replace F16 in 10-12 years with another program in this case either F35 or Eurofighter, I strongly believe F35 would be one Croatia would go for.
I do think F35 is best fighter out there, and if it was out there on the market Croatia would probably go for it, but as first aircraft are expected to roll out in late 2015 and Croatian AF needs fighter before the end of 2011...
Difference of 6-7 years before Croatia would get its first F35 fighter are unsurmountable.
Alternative is to have Air Cover by an of the NATO members, Italy, or Hungary, but this would be an even costlier affair, costing Croatia in region of 120 million USD per year.
Only option for Croatia is new fighters.
BTW fighters purchase would be financed by a central government budget not defense budget, and Gripen Consortium is offering 5 year grace in payment period, 4 gun boats, and 150% offset deal.
Meaning Croatia will benefit greatly from Gripen deal and has only to loose from F16 deal.
Same goes for Russian Mig 35 offer, it is of no interest, Russians are offering nothing in return, no real programs or offsets and Mig's are not even compatible with NATO doctrine or needs.
Not to mention the fact Serbia has Mig 29's as well, and since Croatia considers Serbia as the only threat in the region, it would be bad sport to have same technology as your potential enemy.
Not that Serbia would dare to attack Croatia, but you never know.
Anyways, I strongly doubt Croatia will ever acquire anything from Russia when it comes to military technology, Only reason why Croatia is getting Mil 17S is bc of Russian debt to Croatia, Croatia is getting 10 Mil17S and these will replace all the mil' 8's in current use.
Croatia has plans to purchase NH90's sometimes in 2012-2015 time scale, 4-8 machines are sought for SAR/ASW role and 4-8 machines for Army and Peacekeeping ops.
Also additional light helicopters might be procured for needs of Army and Air Force, time will tell.
Croatia has needs for 50-58 helicopters, of which 4-8 ASW/SAR and about 100 fixed aircraft, this also includes 24 JAS 39 Gripens, these are long term needs - 2012-2020.
