NATO in Afghanistan

[evilbrit]

With NATO planning to increase its troop size by 25-30% over the next 18 months one has to ask the question that NATO may be using the excuse of the Taliban and the Afghans weak government to secure a long term military stronghold in one of the most important strategic areas of the unstable world.
There is almost no mentioning of troop/force withdrawal only Generals screaming for more resources.
NATO will continue to build up serious amounts of firepower in Afghanistan until they feel they are in a position of force to force its presence in other local areas of conflict especially Iran.
NATO is an expensive effective force that calls for heavy demands from its members and this conflict is far from over it never will be,NATO need the Taliban excuse to justify the massed build up of force.
With the British withdrawal imminent from Iraq,those forces all now experienced fighting troops will not be going home to the green fields of England but straight to the bases in Afghanistan.
The UK has had 3 previous Afghan wars and has learned well.don`t be fooled by western propaganda these troop losses are well in acceptable levels for the massed planned build up.
Iran be careful ......lol

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

mate i think NATO commanders are screaming for more resources because they dont have enough to sucsessfully meet the goals they were set. the taliban is no "excuse", just look at the casualty reports if you think its a conspiracy. You think NATO forces are shooting each other in order to get more resources? And if you think it should have taken less time then i think you are fundimentaly missunderstanding the nature of a counter insurgency campaign. These operations take years and years because fundimentaly they are not millitary operations, they are economic, political and psycological in nature, the military presance just allows these areas to be imporoved. therefore these campaigns arent conducted in a millitary timeframe. ANY sucsessfull COIN campaign takes years or decades to be sucsessfull. The transfer of UK units from Iraq to afghanistan shows that the powers that be in the UK want to move their effort from a COIN campaign that cant be won to one thet can. To be honnest i think the last thing NATO is worrying about is Iran, they have enough trouble in afghanistan.

 

[Manfred2]

don`t be fooled by western propaganda these troop losses are well in acceptable levels for the massed planned build up.

Could have come straight out of Pravda. Guess I don't have to ask what the Russians think about all this

Iraq can't be won? Stick around, next month will see some very interesting facts and figures coming out.

Why invade Iran? The Ayatollahs has nearly finished ruining the economy, and the people should be ready to over-throw them any month now. The Iranian Govt. NEEDS a war, or any contrived incident to hold on to power. Grabbing British sailors didnt work, so look for mines in Hormuz.

Iran also devloped smart bombs... or claimed to. Look for aggressive moves by the end of the year.

 

[Waylander]

Yehaaaw, light infantry supported by two SPHs, a towed-artillery battery, a company of tanks and some IFVs is going to crawl right into Iran to mopp up some heavy iranian divisions over wast distances while leaving the field in A-stan to the Taliban.
This is going to be a Blitzkrieg.

Why does nobody sees the obvious...?

 

[kato]

Yehaaaw, light infantry supported by two SPHs, a towed-artillery battery, a company of tanks and some IFVs is going to crawl right into Iran to mopp up some heavy iranian divisions over wast distances while leaving the field in A-stan to the Taliban.
This is going to be a Blitzkrieg.

It's even three SPHs. The primary (heavy) towed arty btry only has one platoon though.

 

[Waylander]

I vote for using the 14 Leopard IIA6M in a highly mobile, netcentric operation supported by the unbelievebale firepower of the dutch PzH2000 and british MLRS.
We could even attach some Norwegians in their CV90s to make it a true tracked combined arms bn.

This bn is going to ride through the Iranian defense like a hot knife through butter. :nutkick

The dream of Rumsfeld comes true.

A small (And I mean really small) heavy force supported by airstrikes and many many special forces operations backed up by some light infantry and maybe an orbital bombardement is going to conquer Iran.

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

Iraq can't be won? Stick around, next month will see some very interesting facts and figures coming out.

I hope so mate i truely do. But i've got a funny feeling that what Gen Pretaus (sorry general if i spelt that wrong) says to congress is that small tactical progress has been made in some parts of baghdad but none of the fundimental issues that are causing this civil war have been adressed, in fact they are now worse. There will be a plan for withdrawl in september, IMo the only question is the timeframe.

Why invade Iran? The Ayatollahs has nearly finished ruining the economy, and the people should be ready to over-throw them any month now. The Iranian Govt. NEEDS a war, or any contrived incident to hold on to power. Grabbing British sailors didnt work, so look for mines in Hormuz.

A foreigin threat has been the tool of many an unpopular government. Saddam used the same trick, first Iran then the west. Remember the way he treated all of those UN WMD inspectors? He even got bombed for it. All of us thought he was hiding something and the Iraqie people theought that he was the only thing between them and the yankee invaders. The Iranians are doing the same thing, but they dont need a war, they need to keep the threat there. Saddam pushed it too far and he got a war, and then he met the hangman.

 

[nero]

.

well said ozzy

the iranians r too clever not to escalate the situation.

infact it is the saudis who want a escalation to the standoff between iran & the U.S.A . it well help the saudi economy if the price of crude oil hovers around the $ 80/ barrel levels.

 

[swerve]

...
Iraq can't be won? Stick around, next month will see some very interesting facts and figures coming out.

I've lost count of how many times I've heard that.

Why invade Iran? The Ayatollahs has nearly finished ruining the economy, and the people should be ready to over-throw them any month now. The Iranian Govt. NEEDS a war, or any contrived incident to hold on to power. Grabbing British sailors didnt work, so look for mines in Hormuz.

Iran also devloped smart bombs... or claimed to. Look for aggressive moves by the end of the year.

So why invade? If you're right, the thing to do is quietly (so as not to alert them) prepare, act ineffectual & indecisive, & wait for them to start it, at which point they discover their awful mistake. But somehow, I don't see that happening. Invading Iran, after the Iraq fiasco . . . . nfloorl:

 

[Manfred2]

the iranians r too clever not to escalate the situation.

Hmmm, sounds like an intersting premise for a war game

Could Iran block the Gulf for more than a week? Let's set the time frame for this coming November, the start of the heating season in the Northern Hemisphere.

If I were the Iranians, I would deploy 2 of the Kilo-class submarines off Aden, and use them to mine the southern end of the Red Sea. Then the submarines move to the wild and chaotic coast of Somalia, re-arm from a trawler, and move on to the the deeper, more submarine-friendly Arabian Sea.

Those two submarines are probably doomed, but they can make this a battle in depth for the opening phase, and scatter the Allied Navies' attention for at least a day. The properly timed release and arming of the mines in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden could cause havoc.

Iran itself has a large enough suface fleet to screen the deployment of Mines in the Strait of Hormuz. They could be quickly sunk, but not before every ship and boat under Iranian control had dumped all their mines. In true terrorist manner, they could do so in a completly random pattern, thus making it an even more effective minefeild.

Iran has just developed a smart-bomb. This makes sense if you want to eliminate other nations off-shore oil platforms, and thus make Iran the only nation with intact, productive oil facilities. To the Iranian point of view, this would make thier own platforms too valuable to destroy (they would probably rig their own with explosives, to prevent siezure).

Non-Iranian ships and airliners could also be hijacked or intercepted, and brought into Iranian ports and airfields, for human shields.


Okay, that is my scenrio. Counter moves, anyone?

 

[radiosilence]

Iraq can't be won? Stick around, next month will see some very interesting facts and figures coming out.
.

Senator Warner, one of the most influencial members of the senate and former chairman of the Armed Services Committee yesterday called for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. When Sept. 15 comes around you might be the only one believing that Iraq can be won.

 

[Manfred2]

Warner? Yeah, I know who he is, and I expect teh press will be giving him a LOT of attention today, maybe even tomorow too.

I used to live in his district, even visited his office a couple of times. He is what's know as a RHINO, a Repulblican In Name Only.

I know the surge is working because teh political opposition in the US is no longer talking about anything to do with Military failure. Now, they are concentraiting on trying to make everyone believe we are looking at a political failure. That's the best they can do now.

This from the same people that said we could not defeat Iraq in 1991, and again in 2003. Then they said we could never establish a Democracy there, or find Saddam, and on and on.

It's called raising the bar, and is another dirrty trick... but that's politics. I would rather stick to military matters.

 

[merocaine]

I know the surge is working because teh political opposition in the US is no longer talking about anything to do with Military failure. Now, they are concentraiting on trying to make everyone believe we are looking at a political failure. That's the best they can do now.

It was always about political failure, there was never any chance of the US being beaten militarly. Can you imagine any senario when a minority within a minority (ie the sunni insurgents) would defeat the occupation forces and reasert their historical dominance over the Shia and Kurds.
What the US is seeking is a democratic, non secterian unified state where western oil companies have as close to unfettered access as possible, and where Iranian influence is reduced to a minimum, and kurdish asperations for a independent state fade away.
Now how lightly is that.

 

[evilbrit]

Can you imagine any senario when a minority within a minority (ie the sunni insurgents) would defeat the occupation forces and reasert their historical dominance over the Shia and Kurds.

Smells like of an old bit of Irish nationalism or wishful thinking or maybe both.

 

[contedicavour]

Iran has nothing to fear (unfortunately...) from the outnumbered NATO forces trying to hunt for guerrillas and to preserve some sort of peace to allow for reconstruction...
Besides, there is a sizeable minority of Shi'ites in eastern Afghanistan who wouldn't exactly be happy with NATO forces rolling west...
On the other hand, this is a place where Iran and the West can cooperate, since the Iranian authorities despize the al-qaeda factions behind the talibans

cheers

 

[merocaine]

Smells like of an old bit of Irish nationalism or wishful thinking or maybe both.

Excuse me? what the hell is that supposed to mean?

 

[contedicavour]

Excuse me? what the hell is that supposed to mean?

Ignore him or we'll get the thread closed
Amazing how a discussion can be hijacked by nonsense !

cheers

 

[merocaine]

Ignore him or we'll get the thread closed
Amazing how a discussion can be hijacked by nonsense !

cheers

Good Advice, never feed the troll....

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

It was always about political failure, there was never any chance of the US being beaten militarly. Can you imagine any senario when a minority within a minority (ie the sunni insurgents) would defeat the occupation forces and reasert their historical dominance over the Shia and Kurds.
What the US is seeking is a democratic, non secterian unified state where western oil companies have as close to unfettered access as possible, and where Iranian influence is reduced to a minimum, and kurdish asperations for a independent state fade away.
Now how lightly is that.

Well said mate.

Viewing a counter insurgency campaign from a purely military perspective is fundimentaly misguided and above all wrong. COIN campaigns have less to do with military prowess and everything to do with achieving political goals. Now you cant put gun's to people heads and say 'stop killing each other' and expect to achieve anything more than both of them to start killing you. More troops on the ground now does nothing to resolve the deep and hate filled divides between different ethnic and religious groups, which are deeply ingrained in the nations history. I dont understand why people expect 5 brigades to somehow mend such complex and ingrained issues.

 

[contedicavour]

Well said mate.

Viewing a counter insurgency campaign from a purely military perspective is fundimentaly misguided and above all wrong. COIN campaigns have less to do with military prowess and everything to do with achieving political goals. Now you cant put gun's to people heads and say 'stop killing each other' and expect to achieve anything more than both of them to start killing you. More troops on the ground now does nothing to resolve the deep and hate filled divides between different ethnic and religious groups, which are deeply ingrained in the nations history. I dont understand why people expect 5 brigades to somehow mend such complex and ingrained issues.

Agree. That's why I'd keep troops into heavily fortified bases lending only emergency aid to governement troops. It's up to the Iraqis to find a half decent way of governing themselves in a federal structure. It is however up to the US (and coalition forces) to make sure the worst is avoided (Iranian invasion, mass ethnic/civil war) just by being present... This would force the current government to start acting seriously...

cheers