Chavez, though he may preach hatred for the west and particularly the United States. For the most part he has no real military might over us, the only real threat would probably be Naval. If Chavez were to send some type of naval convoy to our area of domain (Which is SOUTHCOM if I recall.) then we will take significant notice and possibly action to making sure it doesn't last long. But, if the Cubans want another "communist" despot then they will allow it. But if the seek true democracy then they will take down the Communist in power.
Chavez and Castro
- Thread starter shimmy
- Start date
contedicavour
New Member
I don't expect anything this dramatic to happen. Cubans will just transition gradually to an economically free but politically not free regime, the US won't intervene (too busy elsewhere), and Chavez is likely to keep on wasting his oil money without provoking too openly the USN in one of its backyards... the irony is that Venzuela's Italian made FFGs have been recently upgraded in US shipyards
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radiosilence
jints
Chavez proposed the other day to change Venezuela's constitution to remove presidential term limits and to extend president's time in office to seven years. He has nationalized most of major industries in Venezuela giving himself control of them. He is busy importing the Cuban model into Venezuela. Can't say i am surprise .
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Yes he has proposed a change to the consitution, but on the rest of your post your on thin ground, what has been nationalized? Apart from Oil (in line with most Oil producing countries its been nationalized). Giving himself control of them? I dont think so. Dispite what some may think Venezuela is still a democacy, if the opposition have alienated themselves from the voters by trying to foist a military/upper class coup on the voters then thats their problem.
He has carried out the mandate he was given. If nationalized industry gets your goat then half of europe has imported the "Cuban Model"
radiosilence
jints
Radio, Television and electricity . Telecommunications is in the process of being nationalized. Btw, oil is cream of the crop since it accounts for more than half of Venezuela's exports.
By nationalizing industries, the state is in control of them. Chevez is the head of the state hence he has control of them.
Chavez said "We're moving toward a socialist republic of Venezuela,". I don't hear European leaders saying that nor are they trying to change their constitutions to eliminate head of state's term limits or extending head of state's time in office.If nationalized industry gets your goat then half of europe has imported the "Cuban Model"
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Radio and television havent been nationalised. Television is still 80 percent in private hands.
Oil was nationalised in 1976, the rules were relaxed in the 1990's to allow forigen investment, then tightened up again in 2005. The state oil company was the most powerful political entity in the country when chavez was elected.
But yes the Electricty and Telephone companies has been nationalised.
I certainly dont think he should be altering the consitution to allow himself to serve again.
You have to remember the bunch of career criminals that were in power before the Chavez Goverment, compared to them this guy looks like a saint.
Oil was nationalised in 1976, the rules were relaxed in the 1990's to allow forigen investment, then tightened up again in 2005. The state oil company was the most powerful political entity in the country when chavez was elected.
But yes the Electricty and Telephone companies has been nationalised.
Actully it doesent work like that, the companies are run by a combination of unions, the board of directors, and ministerial control.
Chavez was elected on a clear mandate, I think your beef is with the majority of Venezuelans as much as with Chavez, becoming more Socialist does not mean 'importing the Cuban Model'
I certainly dont think he should be altering the consitution to allow himself to serve again.
You have to remember the bunch of career criminals that were in power before the Chavez Goverment, compared to them this guy looks like a saint.
contedicavour
New Member
Hmm I wouldn't qualify as normally democratic a country where the elected head of state decides to remain president forever, to steal the Central Bank's reserve money and PDVSA's investment budget to open up state supermarkets and state clubs and pay for militia-like supporters.
Sure, this doesn't entitle us to support coups against elected people, but let's face it the moment oil prices go down and Chavez can't buy off the population anymore then he'll become unpopular. Except that by then all terrestrial TV stations will be government-controlled, the president will be for life, militias will control most cities, and any opposition voice will just be crushed.
Don't forget that Castro too was popular after getting rid of Batista...
cheers
PS : oh and by the way this so democratic fellow was a specialist of army coups against elected governments in the past... so he isn't in a good position to complain against coups directed towards him...
Sure, this doesn't entitle us to support coups against elected people, but let's face it the moment oil prices go down and Chavez can't buy off the population anymore then he'll become unpopular. Except that by then all terrestrial TV stations will be government-controlled, the president will be for life, militias will control most cities, and any opposition voice will just be crushed.
Don't forget that Castro too was popular after getting rid of Batista...
cheers
PS : oh and by the way this so democratic fellow was a specialist of army coups against elected governments in the past... so he isn't in a good position to complain against coups directed towards him...
Ok I dont want to get into an arguement about the rights and wrongs of Chavez's domestic policies.
But I will say there is a lot of rubbish bandied about when the name Chavez is mentioned. Personally I would'ent vote for him and I think his policies are misguided, and as you said once oil prices drop its going to be a different story.
But when you say things like "steal the Central Banks money" , you are grossly misrepensenting the facts.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/06268dba-eef3-11d9-8b10-00000e2511c8.html
the financial times is hardly sympathetic to the Chavez Goverment, but at least its a balanced judgement.
But well hey, I guess its a pity that the bunch of unelected admirals, generals, and media moguls and the state Oil company did'ent manage to sieze power in a coup, cause at least then we would'ent have to lose sleep over super markets selling affordable food to the poor, free access to medical care, and the majority of the electorate supporting there goverment.
But I will say there is a lot of rubbish bandied about when the name Chavez is mentioned. Personally I would'ent vote for him and I think his policies are misguided, and as you said once oil prices drop its going to be a different story.
But when you say things like "steal the Central Banks money" , you are grossly misrepensenting the facts.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/06268dba-eef3-11d9-8b10-00000e2511c8.html
the financial times is hardly sympathetic to the Chavez Goverment, but at least its a balanced judgement.
But well hey, I guess its a pity that the bunch of unelected admirals, generals, and media moguls and the state Oil company did'ent manage to sieze power in a coup, cause at least then we would'ent have to lose sleep over super markets selling affordable food to the poor, free access to medical care, and the majority of the electorate supporting there goverment.
radiosilence
jints
I think if you look at Venezuela's oil policy, you will see that Chavez is in control of it.merocaine said:
The legislature, 167 seats are held by Chavez loyalists thanks to an election boycott by the opposition in 2005. These are the people who rubber stamp his policies. I wouldn't call that a clear mandate with opposition bycotting the election in the legislature. There is no checks and balances.
Actually its an almost total majority, I like the term rubber stamp though, it implies the pariliment is a bunch of unelected cronies.
The opposition knew they were going to lose so they made the incredibly stupid decision to bycott the election, they also tried to smear the election by claiming laughably that it was rigged. All rubbish, the carter center declared it to be free and fair.
By the way he won the Presidential election by about 25%.
heres the EU's take
http://www.eueomvenezuela.org/pdf/pre_statement_en.pdf
you think or you know?
In that he is the head of state and leader of the goverment and appoints the Oil Minister to his cabinate I dont think you should be to suprised. I would imagine that the Oil industry being the most important part of the Goverments portfolio since 1976 has been under the control of every president since.
Again most decisions are taken by the board of directors and various experts.
radiosilence
jints
One of the meaning of Rubber Stamp is - body that gives perfunctory approval or endorsement of a policy without assessing its merits.
Thatswhat i was going for.
You might be right but the opposition claimed that the voting machines were manipulated and accused the electoral body of favouring pro-government candidates.
Carter center observed the legislative election in 2005?
Who appoints those board of directors? Who are those board of directors accountable to ?
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Yeah the flaw in the voting machines was spotted about a week before the elections and was rectified to the satifaction of the EU monitoring body by the electorial body.
That was just given as the excuse to pull out of the election in an effort to rob it of legitmacy.
Yeah I'm pretty sure the carter center monitored the election, I'll see if I can find a link.
To be honest I'm not sure, I'd guess the goverment (at least 60%) and private shareholders (up to 40%)
contedicavour
New Member
To summarize, I'd say that we're back to the usual old argument : if a (more or less) democratically elected leader turns into a dictator, should we just accept this or turn to temporarily undemocratic tools to restore democracy ? In early '90s Algeria for instance nobody complained when the military stopped the fundamentalists from taking power despite the fact that they had won the 1st round of voting.
Anyway, I'd increase military support for Colombia and Brazil so that Chavez feels some pressure from neighboring countries. Lula is already fed up with Chavez' posturing in Latin America, and Uribe is obviously hostile since farc seems to be supported by Chavez... If his oil financed weapons buying spree is neutralized by weapons transfers to Colombia and Brazil then I guess we'll have contributed to his eventual downfall.
cheers
Anyway, I'd increase military support for Colombia and Brazil so that Chavez feels some pressure from neighboring countries. Lula is already fed up with Chavez' posturing in Latin America, and Uribe is obviously hostile since farc seems to be supported by Chavez... If his oil financed weapons buying spree is neutralized by weapons transfers to Colombia and Brazil then I guess we'll have contributed to his eventual downfall.
cheers
radiosilence
jints
IMO, increasing military aid to his neighbors would be counter productive unless he starts threatening them. He will used the increase military aid to his neighbors as even more evidence that the US wants to invade Venezuela and rally his people around him.
I suppose, I mean if they just open up their economy they can practice the "communism" that the PRC. Chavez probably will waste his oil and whatever tax money he can get from the poor that put him in office on some reckless and foolish operation to bother other nations in the region.I don't expect anything this dramatic to happen. Cubans will just transition gradually to an economically free but politically not free regime, the US won't intervene (too busy elsewhere), and Chavez is likely to keep on wasting his oil money without provoking too openly the USN in one of its backyards... the irony is that Venzuela's Italian made FFGs have been recently upgraded in US shipyards
cheers
radiosilence
jints
What makes you think he will tax his "base" ? Thats like committing political suicide. He has built up a social infrastructure similar to canada which is targeted at helping the poor.
contedicavour
New Member
Similar to Canada ?? Just because Chavez is importing Cuban doctors and nurses doesn't mean he's established a functioning National Health Service
The population is still very young, so he doesn't have to spend on retirement entitlements.
He has increased "social spending" by setting up militia-led facilities where it is true that you get low cost medical treatment and more education. However the problem is that these facilities serve as indoctrination camps filled with Cuban personnel. By the way, as soon as oil falls these camps will lack medicines and the only teachers available will be in "bolivarian ideology" ...
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radiosilence
jints
This is what he has done during his first 5 years in office and has continue to build on it since being relected. National health care, a water infrastructure program, housing, food security, loans to spur industries and cooperative businesses, and a host of education programs with everything from basic literacy to university education.Similar to Canada ?? Just because Chavez is importing Cuban doctors and nurses doesn't mean he's established a functioning National Health Service
contedicavour
New Member
I'm not saying all is bad. My point is just that education is more indoctrination and that state-provided food security (through the state supermarkets) is a recipe for disaster. It will just kill off private enterprise and will malfunction as soon as Chavez has spent all of the oil dollars.
My admiration goes to programmes such as Lula's, who while caring for the poorest with state subsidies (on condition that children go to school), isn't distorting or expropriating private enterprise.
cheers