Third world war escenario, let's imagine

nyrhex

New Member
~200 is the number I would go by.
200 was in the 80's, and based on the time that had past and the improvment of technology that had maid it possible to make more nukes per year, i would go by 500-600.

think of it, in the early 70's it was 20, in the early 80's it was 200, in 2007 it should be a hell of allot more.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
200 was in the 80's, and based on the time that had past and the improvment of technology that had maid it possible to make more nukes per year, i would go by 500-600.

think of it, in the early 70's it was 20, in the early 80's it was 200, in 2007 it should be a hell of allot more.
You're so deep in speculation here. ;)
 

Snayke

New Member
They have nuclear capability, yes, but that doesn't mean they went into full production and stockpiling of nuclear warheads
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Nope, read it again. Listed = traded. The $17 trillion is the value of the 3,000 companies. Semantics.
And that was in 2001, when the pre-millennium bubble had burst. It's quite a bit higher now. Most companies aren't listed (there are a hell of a lot more than 3000 companies in the USA!), & there are a lot of other things to invest in, so that's only a fraction of the avenues by which Saudis could invest in the USA. e.g. owner-occupied residential property in the USA was valued at over $12 trillion in 2001, & a lot more now.

The US stock market fell by a few times as much as T-95s hypothetical Arab asset withdrawal after its millennum peak, without causing a catastrophe. A 5% drop in housing prices would take the same nominal sum out of the US economy - and that's a minor blip, by historical standards. Spread across equities, government securities, etc, Arabs may own 1-2% of US tradable assets.
 

XaNDeR

New Member
im not speculating, im estimating, based on the latest figure that was 400 in the mid 90's, you are the one who is speculating here.
Israel has 75-200 warheads

Source:

Norris, Robert S., William Arkin, Hans M. Kristensen, and Joshua Handler. "Israeli nuclear forces, 2002," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 58:5 (September/October 2002)
 

metro

New Member
Nope, read it again. Listed = traded. The $17 trillion is the value of the 3,000 companies. Semantics.
Yeah, it sounds pretty crazy when you hear the amount, but that number makes up the combined market capitalization of all the listed companies on the exchange (As GD said, about 3,000). I've seen everywhere from $10T to near $20T, I went with the most conservative number I remembered.
 

mexsoldier

New Member
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even if israel have a lot i don't think they'll use it

200 was in the 80's, and based on the time that had past and the improvment of technology that had maid it possible to make more nukes per year, i would go by 500-600.

think of it, in the early 70's it was 20, in the early 80's it was 200, in 2007 it should be a hell of allot more.

because, if israel takes those countryes, lebanon and syria, if there is nuclear pollution, what is the economic use for them, the only area cultivable is the little area near to the mediterranean sea, there is where the people lives, and there is where the bombs could explote, if that zone is radiactive, i think there is no reason to attack with nuclear bombs at all, and i don't think the israeli's have all of those bombs, maybe 200 hundred maximum, but we don't should forget that they are so sacred of the ME, that they will have more in another places.
 

metro

New Member
The difference between our estimates of when Iran will have a nuke and Israel's, is that our estimate is based upon the having the actual bomb. Israel's estimate is based upon when Iran will "pass the point of no return." This doesn't mean Iran reaching the point where taking out their facilities causes fallout because of production. Israel looks at "the point of no return" as Iran being able to pass all of the technical hurdles, and having complete knowledge of being able to do everything themselves.

I've seen the estimates for a long time of Israel having around 200 warheads (some say up to 500, very high est. IMO). I believe that (Ret. USAF) Lieutenant General Thomas McInerny (a guy who wanted us to bomb Iran), said that our estimate is that Israel maintains around 85 warheads.

I read something where he said that bombing Iran "today" would take us one or two days with about 25,000 aim points attempted. I'm not any kind of expert on the AF, so I don't know if that sounds like it's possible or not based in reality. Anyone know if that's even feasible ("attempting") or is it (near) impossible? I just have no idea if that's a very large number or something that's "no problem"?
 

nyrhex

New Member
Israel has 75-200 warheads

Source:

Norris, Robert S., William Arkin, Hans M. Kristensen, and Joshua Handler. "Israeli nuclear forces, 2002," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 58:5 (September/October 2002)
well the figure 200 was in 1986, when Mordechai Vanunu said the reactor was makeing 10 nukes a year, for 18 years, in 97' the number grow to 400. in 10 years from 200 to 400, 10 years from 97' to 2007 is about 500-600.
 

nyrhex

New Member
because, if israel takes those countryes, lebanon and syria, if there is nuclear pollution, what is the economic use for them, the only area cultivable is the little area near to the mediterranean sea, there is where the people lives, and there is where the bombs could explote, if that zone is radiactive, i think there is no reason to attack with nuclear bombs at all, and i don't think the israeli's have all of those bombs, maybe 200 hundred maximum, but we don't should forget that they are so sacred of the ME, that they will have more in another places.
i said that in the ww3 scenario Israel would nuke Iran, and use its army to destroy the Syrian army, and use its air power to burn Lebanon, with Napalm
and stuff. Israel will only nuke Syria and/or countrys close to her with small nukes or Neutron bombs. the only scenario to nuke countrys close to Israel is in the sampson option, when Israel is destroyed.

based on the info provided by Mordechai Vanunu, the Israeli H-bombs are the only bombs manufactured in the nuclear reactor in Dimona, and are 10-20 times bigger then the Hiroshima bomb, makeing 50 bombs more then enough for the entire ME. the rest of the bombs are for super powers like Russia.

and im not including the fact that somewhere in the mid 90's Israel switched to manufacture thermonuclear bombs.
 

XaNDeR

New Member
well the figure 200 was in 1986, when Mordechai Vanunu said the reactor was makeing 10 nukes a year, for 18 years, in 97' the number grow to 400. in 10 years from 200 to 400, 10 years from 97' to 2007 is about 500-600.
A figgure from 2002 shows 75-200 , where did you get 400 in 97 , give me a source .
 

XaNDeR

New Member
In wikipedia i found this - By the mid 2000s estimates of Israel's arsenal ranged from 70 to 400 nuclear warheads, although a figure closer to the lower bound is more likely.[1]
 
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