nfloorl: nfloorl: you live in "la la" land, the Saudis are one of the reasons the US went into Iraq. Arab money (and oil) plays a major role in the western economy. What economic war are you saying we'll lose?!
Third world war escenario, let's imagine
- Thread starter mexsoldier
- Start date
nfloorl: nfloorl: you live in "la la" land, the Saudis are one of the reasons the US went into Iraq. Arab money (and oil) plays a major role in the western economy. What economic war are you saying we'll lose?!Don't be silly!
First lesson in economics: money has no intrinsic value. It is a medium of exchange. Without goods to buy, it's worthless.
Engineer a crash in the west, & a lot of things happen. China crashes, because its economy depends on selling to the west. The oil price goes through the floor. The assets in which Saudi money is invested plummet in price. Suddenly, Saudi Arabia is dirt-poor, desperately trying to scrape together the money to pay for the food imports without which it'll starve. The basis for its economy (exporting oil) has been undercut, as demand for oil has slumped. But in any case, you won't necessarily cause a crash.
BTW, how does Saudi Arabia "pull its money out"? Some is in government bonds, some in shares, some in bank deposits. Dumping your entire holding will depress the prices of the bonds & shares you own. Once you start selling, you'll get a flow of money into your bank accounts. What do banks do with money they have on deposit? Lend it out. Who will be wanting to borrow money? Well, someone is selling so many bonds & shares, that prices have dropped - time to borrow & shove it into securities & equities . . . .
What you'll achieve is a transfer of Saudi-owned assets to foreigners, at discounted prices, using the liquidity you've pumped into the banking system. Thanks very much for boosting my pension!
You see? You may well fail, & merely get rid of your assets & make yourself poorer. If you succeed, it'll be like a suicide bombing that goes phut: some other people are inconvenienced, but you'll be the one inside the suicide belt that half-exploded.
It's not only a crazy idea, it's stupid. Like cutting your throat & bleeding over someone to frighten him. Might work, but at what cost?
Any one you start. It's obvious you don't have the slightest idea about economics. Where do you propose to put the money you get from selling your assets? How do you stop it being recycled within the system?
You don't actually understand the difference between money & underlying assets, do you? If you own a car, sell it to me for cash, then take the cash away & burn it, who is impoverished by the transaction?
You know there are other ways. Out of the 12 OPEC nations 9 of them are Muslim (even though Nigeria is like 50% Muslim but whatever), 1 of the ones that aren't Muslim hates America. Not to mention the top 5 most influential are Muslim. In an economic and energy war the Arabs/Muslims would still win. There are a million ways to put the west in an economic choke hold. Oil gives you major power and probably was the reason for the Iraq War.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_warfare
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_warfare
...
Oil from Iraq is now being sold with the USD, not the Euro. Funny eh.
Also, such a minor pullout from assets in the US, sure, it would slightly damage it but that is a short term effect. Massive pullouts affect DEVELOPING nations much more as that money is what was employing their workers and building their infrastructure. The USA is not in dire need of infrastructure and is pretty much a self sufficient economy.
And as swerve mentioned, to have a tumbling effect on prices, they would infact need to greatly REDUCE the selling cost of their assets, basically dumping Arab money into the US economy and pulling out their only a majority or even a minority of what they invested initially.
No, there isn't a single one. The money only has value because it is invested in productive economies. Reduce the productivity of those economies, & your money loses value. Got it yet? Your money is not a thing in itself, it is a claim on a share of the value of the economies in which it is invested.
That you believe in the notion of an energy war shows your naivety. What do you do with oil, if you don't sell it? Drink it? Where do you get your food from? Your cars? Your air-conditioners? Your desalinators? Your electricity generators?
First of all you mean desalination plants not disalinatators. Don't Gulf Arabs have huge cash reserves? And didn't the GCC nations say they were going to drop the dollar from their foreign exchange reserves to make a GCC currency?
Sorry meant to include this in the previous post: http://americandaily.com/article/12466
You really don't get it, do you? And don't make a fool of yourself by wrongly (yes, you got it wrong) correcting my English. Desalinator (not "desalinatator" ) is a perfectly good word. It's a thing which does desalination. Consider "generator", & "generation plant".
Who makes all that stuff you import? How will you buy it, without exporting? How will you export, if you succeed in destroying your export markets?
You talk of cash reserves - held where? How? You really mean bank deposits, not banknotes, since there isn't that much physical cash around. And what does it matter which currency? You can't crash the USA, Japan, or Western Europe without taking them all down. And your own money (GCC, Saudi, whatever) is only worth as much as the economy behind it, unless backed by foreign reserves.
Go away & think, maybe read Basic Economics for Dummies, then come back when you have some idea what you're gibbering about. Then think about the likely reaction to what you propose.
Admin: Post reported for foul language. text deleted.
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No, he is trying to explain to you in a very easy way why your idea is BS.
Nothing else.
And you go on ignoring everything he offers to you.
You don't discuss with facts you shout out your opinion again and again without backing it up while ignoring basic macroeconomic facts.
I get the feeling you don't want to see reality because it doesn't fit into your view of how the world should be and not how it actually is.
Nothing else.
And you go on ignoring everything he offers to you.
You don't discuss with facts you shout out your opinion again and again without backing it up while ignoring basic macroeconomic facts.
I get the feeling you don't want to see reality because it doesn't fit into your view of how the world should be and not how it actually is.
mexsoldier
New Member
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #51
the arabs cannot destroy an economy as big as the american...
ok, you take away your money from american and european banks, if american banks are bankrupt they will not have enough money to buy oil. if american economy gets expensive, we will not buy chinese exports. if we don't buy chinese exports , the chinese will get slowed down, so they will not buy arab oil, so the arabs will fall in bankrupt, the only major export of the arabs is oil, maybe 80 or 90% of the total exports, but americans produce more than 50 % of their own oil, the other half is bought from mexico, venezuela, and of course ME. but america is a very diversified economy, i don't think that the arabs are going to destroy the american economy.
ok, you take away your money from american and european banks, if american banks are bankrupt they will not have enough money to buy oil. if american economy gets expensive, we will not buy chinese exports. if we don't buy chinese exports , the chinese will get slowed down, so they will not buy arab oil, so the arabs will fall in bankrupt, the only major export of the arabs is oil, maybe 80 or 90% of the total exports, but americans produce more than 50 % of their own oil, the other half is bought from mexico, venezuela, and of course ME. but america is a very diversified economy, i don't think that the arabs are going to destroy the american economy.
Very true, but it won't serve you much good to start a war with the ME would it? The Arabs do have some influence over you other wise you wouldn't be paying so much attention to them.
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mexsoldier
New Member
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #53
however, ME still weaker than US
even if ME try to hit american economy, they could be just vaporized, jajajaja, when you want to go from los angeles to san francisco, and the gas prices are high you start to become crazy and send bombs to these ME contries, trust me you don't want to be in california with these energy costs by the skies ($3.15 the gallon in the gas station that is near to my house, and the weather outside at 115 farenheit degrees, the energy bill comes at $350 monthly)that's because of the opec and their high prices.
even if ME try to hit american economy, they could be just vaporized, jajajaja, when you want to go from los angeles to san francisco, and the gas prices are high you start to become crazy and send bombs to these ME contries, trust me you don't want to be in california with these energy costs by the skies ($3.15 the gallon in the gas station that is near to my house, and the weather outside at 115 farenheit degrees, the energy bill comes at $350 monthly)that's because of the opec and their high prices.
Wow, there have been some quite novel and very sophisticated arguments made, perhaps in an attempt to prove that one does not need the simplest or most basic understanding of reality on earth, in order to become a space cadet. This is not meant as an insult to any one person at all! In fact, it is meant to show the very opposite. Any individual can continue to present and argue some new and interesting theories, based upon principles that may be alien and useless to us on earth, but firmly grounded somewhere in the universe. Hence, the opportunity for a person to pursue his/her reality as a space cadet ("Houston, we have a problem")!
Hey, it's all in good fun!
Collapsing a Gov't is difficult enough, especially from the outside. Collapsing strong economies in today's world is not impossible, but it's in the same neighborhood. Now, if you have control of your country's economy, yes, you could kill it if that's the goal (destruction from within is normally not in a State's self-interest).
As Swerve, Waylander, Snayke, and some others have pointed out, it's not so simple and makes no "cents," for some country's to attempt to engage in economic warfare, unless those country's are attempting to commit their own suicide.
I think enough of the basic principles have been pointed out. For example, the "Buy high, sell low," argument is definitely different, but wisdom probably isn't involved in that thought process. There will be a very long line of people who'd be more than happy to buy those "discounted" investments. One would have to wonder if those "suddenly pulling $1 Trillion," understood "investment" (just the word/concept) in the first place.
Perhaps, looking at just one of Prince Bandar's house's/estate's in can be used as a small example. He's had this $135-$150 million asset/investment on the market in Aspen CO. for a good length of time already ("suddenly pulling out investments"? Not so much. Not so sudden.) Maybe, if he were willing to take a loss in order to sell the large home ($75M?), someone would take it off his hands. If not, that $135M-$150M valued party-property continues to be a great source of property tax income for the US (as long as it sits in the "Saudi asset dept." Saudi money is flowing into the US due to their asset).
When we stop talking about "chump change," and look at some places where larger sums of money exist, there are usually some "rules/laws" and "oversight." The NYSE is worth $10 Trillion+ on its own (maybe valued at something more, this is just off the top of my head). Let's say all $1 Trillion is invested in the market, how does one, "suddenly sell off all of those 'assets'"? Before that's explained, just read some SEC rules.
However, if laws, computers that WILL shut-down the market, and so on didn't exist, I'd love to see the "asks" go across the screen (just for comedy).
The same goes for Banks! "I'd like to withdraw $1 Trillion. Please put it all in a suitcase with newly printed $100 Notes only. Thanks"!
-"No problem sir! But first let me show you where we sell the suitcase. Our cheapest model is this beautiful piece that will carry all that paper. It only cost's $1 Trillion, but it's top quality and 100% made in the USA. Shall I start filling the suitcase with paper"?
Hyperbole, but one should probably know how banks work, before proposing the impossible.
Going into detail regarding China gets more complicated, but Swerve and others make it clear why Economic Warfare will not cripple Western economies,
it will destroy that of the ME. If ME/Oil can get China to buy it's product in Yuan, China could become one of the worlds largest oil suppliers (i.e. cheap oil)
-911 cost the US well over $1 Trillion (add other Western countries and use whatever multiple you want).
-The US war in Iraq is approaching $1 Trillion.
The economy is still "working."
-Throw in another $Trillion that the ME pulls out of the US.
Done?
Now the US and CFS pull out of Iraq (troops/people, not paper). How do oil states pay for protection? $1 Trillion in Arms from West (or do Arms prices rise)? Nice.
That $1 Trillion invested in going oil free could go a long way. Want to buy Western products that don't need oil? Do the Chinese want to keep (buying) producing products that need oil, especially if the West has alternatives? What do they sell anymore? High priced oil based items? Maybe India and China want an oil price war... Not so much!
As I and other's mentioned, oil isn't a drink, unless gold is traded for goods, there will be a large and upset population.
Having said this, I'm frankly impressed with the UAE. They've looked towards the future and almost completely changed and diversified their economy. Abu Dhabi and Dubai are having a "friendly war" (invested crazy Biiiiiiilions) over who will become the top hub and the top destination of the ME. I believe they're set to become the largest economy in the ME, if it hasn't already happened. Same with the largest buyers of arms from the West. They're building a large "space program." See the recent deals with Boeing and other Western companies that they've made. This is what's called investment. Taking money made in one area, and turning it (over) into owning tangible assets that are built upon. The two smallest countries in the ME have realized this, and I don't question why they are the 2 most advanced countries in the ME. Do you?
JMHO,
peace and off to "la la land"
Hey, it's all in good fun!
Collapsing a Gov't is difficult enough, especially from the outside. Collapsing strong economies in today's world is not impossible, but it's in the same neighborhood. Now, if you have control of your country's economy, yes, you could kill it if that's the goal (destruction from within is normally not in a State's self-interest).
As Swerve, Waylander, Snayke, and some others have pointed out, it's not so simple and makes no "cents," for some country's to attempt to engage in economic warfare, unless those country's are attempting to commit their own suicide.
I think enough of the basic principles have been pointed out. For example, the "Buy high, sell low," argument is definitely different, but wisdom probably isn't involved in that thought process. There will be a very long line of people who'd be more than happy to buy those "discounted" investments. One would have to wonder if those "suddenly pulling $1 Trillion," understood "investment" (just the word/concept) in the first place.
Perhaps, looking at just one of Prince Bandar's house's/estate's in can be used as a small example. He's had this $135-$150 million asset/investment on the market in Aspen CO. for a good length of time already ("suddenly pulling out investments"? Not so much. Not so sudden.) Maybe, if he were willing to take a loss in order to sell the large home ($75M?), someone would take it off his hands. If not, that $135M-$150M valued party-property continues to be a great source of property tax income for the US (as long as it sits in the "Saudi asset dept." Saudi money is flowing into the US due to their asset).
When we stop talking about "chump change," and look at some places where larger sums of money exist, there are usually some "rules/laws" and "oversight." The NYSE is worth $10 Trillion+ on its own (maybe valued at something more, this is just off the top of my head). Let's say all $1 Trillion is invested in the market, how does one, "suddenly sell off all of those 'assets'"? Before that's explained, just read some SEC rules.
However, if laws, computers that WILL shut-down the market, and so on didn't exist, I'd love to see the "asks" go across the screen (just for comedy).
The same goes for Banks! "I'd like to withdraw $1 Trillion. Please put it all in a suitcase with newly printed $100 Notes only. Thanks"!
-"No problem sir! But first let me show you where we sell the suitcase. Our cheapest model is this beautiful piece that will carry all that paper. It only cost's $1 Trillion, but it's top quality and 100% made in the USA. Shall I start filling the suitcase with paper"?
Hyperbole, but one should probably know how banks work, before proposing the impossible.
Going into detail regarding China gets more complicated, but Swerve and others make it clear why Economic Warfare will not cripple Western economies,
it will destroy that of the ME. If ME/Oil can get China to buy it's product in Yuan, China could become one of the worlds largest oil suppliers (i.e. cheap oil)
-911 cost the US well over $1 Trillion (add other Western countries and use whatever multiple you want).
-The US war in Iraq is approaching $1 Trillion.
The economy is still "working."
-Throw in another $Trillion that the ME pulls out of the US.
Done?
Now the US and CFS pull out of Iraq (troops/people, not paper). How do oil states pay for protection? $1 Trillion in Arms from West (or do Arms prices rise)? Nice.
That $1 Trillion invested in going oil free could go a long way. Want to buy Western products that don't need oil? Do the Chinese want to keep (buying) producing products that need oil, especially if the West has alternatives? What do they sell anymore? High priced oil based items? Maybe India and China want an oil price war... Not so much!
As I and other's mentioned, oil isn't a drink, unless gold is traded for goods, there will be a large and upset population.
Having said this, I'm frankly impressed with the UAE. They've looked towards the future and almost completely changed and diversified their economy. Abu Dhabi and Dubai are having a "friendly war" (invested crazy Biiiiiiilions) over who will become the top hub and the top destination of the ME. I believe they're set to become the largest economy in the ME, if it hasn't already happened. Same with the largest buyers of arms from the West. They're building a large "space program." See the recent deals with Boeing and other Western companies that they've made. This is what's called investment. Taking money made in one area, and turning it (over) into owning tangible assets that are built upon. The two smallest countries in the ME have realized this, and I don't question why they are the 2 most advanced countries in the ME. Do you?
JMHO,
peace and off to "la la land"
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"The NYSE is worth $10 Trillion+ on its own"
I think you mean that amount is exchanged yearly or something. Remember, if I buy 10 dollars of shares from you and you buy it back, that's considered 20 dollars exchanged on the share market. They rise to crazy figures the amount that is turned over.
I think you mean that amount is exchanged yearly or something. Remember, if I buy 10 dollars of shares from you and you buy it back, that's considered 20 dollars exchanged on the share market. They rise to crazy figures the amount that is turned over.
I think he means the total value of companies quoted on the NYSE, in which case I think it's an underestimate.
i think some of you people got it all wrong, the economy is not that importent in ww3, ww3 will be over before cash/oil reserves are over.
some of you said that Israel will loose 1/2-2/3 of its army in war between the arab states, thats impossible, first, because not all arab states are going to take on Israel, the most likely scenario will be Hezbullah taking over power in Lebanon, sings a pact with Iran and Syria.
now, its very importent who will strike first,
If Israel will strike first, it will probably be right after Hezbullah will take over Lebanon,;
1) Israel declares war on Lebanon and attacks Lebanon to remove Hezbullah.
2) Syria comes to the rescue of Hezbullah.
3) Iran sends 100's of long range missiles to Israel.
4) Israel nukes Iran, turning every inch into glass.
5) Israel, now with 1000's of civilians dead, burns Lebanon to the ground, and attacks Syria, destroying its army, and does not listen to UN call for a cease-fire, captures Damascus and ends the war in the ME with several 10's of 1000's of dead, mostly civils.
If Israel waits and is attacked by an Iranian nuke:
1) Israel tries to destroy the nuke with the Arrow missile
now, there are 2 scenarios:
first scenario:
1) Israel destroy's the Iranian nuke in the Stratosphere.
2) Israel can nuke Iran right now, but im going with the fun scenario, Israel goes by land, using its Air supremacy to take out everything in its way, including Syria, and heads to Iran, this scenario is unlikely but possible.
3) Israel uses special forces and air force to take out Iran's nuclear capabilaty, while land and air forces destroy Irans milletry(i know it sound impossible but you need to remmember that Israeli air force and armor core are better and larger then those of Iran, the Iranian infantry is the only threat but can be destroyed by the use of air force, artillery and small nukes or N-bombs).
4) Israel puts in power a new gov in Iran, then returns her army to Israel.
this scenario will need the U.S to aid Israel by supplying her with ammo and spare parts.
now the second scenario(the scary one):
1) Israeli arrow cannot handle the Iranian missile or Iran sends more nukes.
2) Israel is destroyed
3) Israeli nuclear bunkers and subs laounch 500-600 nuclear weapons into every country in Israel's shit-list, destroying most of the ME, Asia and N.Africa(according to some estimations Russia is also one of the possible targets).
4) Israeli Mossad operatives, now without a homeland, execute the Armageddon scenario, activating suitcase nukes and spreading bio/Chemical weapons in any city/country that was in the list, but was not hit.
total casualties estimation: 0.3-1.5 billion:shudder
some of you said that Israel will loose 1/2-2/3 of its army in war between the arab states, thats impossible, first, because not all arab states are going to take on Israel, the most likely scenario will be Hezbullah taking over power in Lebanon, sings a pact with Iran and Syria.
now, its very importent who will strike first,
If Israel will strike first, it will probably be right after Hezbullah will take over Lebanon,;
1) Israel declares war on Lebanon and attacks Lebanon to remove Hezbullah.
2) Syria comes to the rescue of Hezbullah.
3) Iran sends 100's of long range missiles to Israel.
4) Israel nukes Iran, turning every inch into glass.
5) Israel, now with 1000's of civilians dead, burns Lebanon to the ground, and attacks Syria, destroying its army, and does not listen to UN call for a cease-fire, captures Damascus and ends the war in the ME with several 10's of 1000's of dead, mostly civils.
If Israel waits and is attacked by an Iranian nuke:
1) Israel tries to destroy the nuke with the Arrow missile
now, there are 2 scenarios:
first scenario:
1) Israel destroy's the Iranian nuke in the Stratosphere.
2) Israel can nuke Iran right now, but im going with the fun scenario, Israel goes by land, using its Air supremacy to take out everything in its way, including Syria, and heads to Iran, this scenario is unlikely but possible.
3) Israel uses special forces and air force to take out Iran's nuclear capabilaty, while land and air forces destroy Irans milletry(i know it sound impossible but you need to remmember that Israeli air force and armor core are better and larger then those of Iran, the Iranian infantry is the only threat but can be destroyed by the use of air force, artillery and small nukes or N-bombs).
4) Israel puts in power a new gov in Iran, then returns her army to Israel.
this scenario will need the U.S to aid Israel by supplying her with ammo and spare parts.
now the second scenario(the scary one):
1) Israeli arrow cannot handle the Iranian missile or Iran sends more nukes.
2) Israel is destroyed
3) Israeli nuclear bunkers and subs laounch 500-600 nuclear weapons into every country in Israel's shit-list, destroying most of the ME, Asia and N.Africa(according to some estimations Russia is also one of the possible targets).
4) Israeli Mossad operatives, now without a homeland, execute the Armageddon scenario, activating suitcase nukes and spreading bio/Chemical weapons in any city/country that was in the list, but was not hit.
total casualties estimation: 0.3-1.5 billion:shudder
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), one of the largest markets in the world for trading stocks and bonds, based in New York City. In 2001 the NYSE listed—that is, traded—the stocks of about 3,000 companies, valued at about $17 trillion.
From Microsoft Encarta 2006. It says traded, so that doesn't mean all those companies are worth 17 trillion dollars. Traded as in bought and sold that year.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Nope, read it again. Listed = traded. The $17 trillion is the value of the 3,000 companies. Semantics.