Third world war escenario, let's imagine

[T-95]

I'm sorry did you just claim the Arabs invest 1 trillion dollars a YEAR into the US economy? Is this USD or other? If you are claiming the Arabs are buying into the US economy with 1 trillion USD a year, could you tell me where they get this money from?

The Middle East and North Africa have a total GDP of 1.34 trillion USD(2002 estimate). What you are claiming is that the Arabs can own the entire US economy in 12 years as the US GDP is totalled at around 12 trillion USD. :/ They must not spend a lot on their own countries.

However, I do believe you mean that the Saudis have 1 trillion invested into the US economy which I have heard somewhere before. A sudden pullout of 1 trillion from any economy would pretty much cause damage.

As for the scenario, how did terrorists just seize all these governments? I'd say Israel would act right after a terrorist group such as Hezbollah seized power of a nation, let alone several. Also I don't believe that things would go so smoothly. Transition would not go so easily as you have the problem of loyalists.

China would keep to their neutrality as they usually do. They would not benefit in aligning themselves with the IA. The Chinese have adopted western views on politics and have postured themselves as such according to benefits. That's why they and the US are such large trading partners.

Russia would get involved as they have been attacked as stated in the OP by this IA. That's pretty much a declaration of war. But I ask, how did a force from IA randomly waltz into Sibera? It doesn't border the Middle-East and its quite far away. Also, how does Russia send troops to the North Korean border? They don't have a border with North Korea nor would the Chinese allow them to. It's not like they have great relations.

In a war between Israel and those nations, Israel would most definately win in a defensive war as they have done in the past. As for numbers, someone mentioned 600,000 vs 2,500,000? There is a difference in quality that you must remember. I don't think Israel would bother invading. Once they eliminate their military capabilities, what's the point of invading? Occupying their territory would not serve them any good. The US would aid Israel without a pact.


As for North Korea, that seems a bit random but ok. South Korean forces are not to be taken lightly. They have the economic power to fund a well equipped military (as they have right now). At 600,000 strong, they can defend themselves quite well from a North Korean invasion. Having 1 million soldiers does not automatically make the North Korean military stronger. There's the problem of providing continuous supplies to their soldiers and with surperior air power from South Korea and the USA, they would be hard pressed to rush forward supplies. Also with Japanese involvement (who also have quite a fine military), North Korea wouldn't stand much of a chance having to fight off the air forces of South Korea, USA and Japan while having no control of the seas which allows invasion points all along their coast IF they were to try and use their manpower against the South Korean military. Also there are US forces deployed in South Korea who could also render assistance although a small insignificant force, anything helps.

Anyway, probably some wrong bits in there but oh well.

nfloorl: nfloorl: nfloorl: nfloorl: Look it up Saudis alone invested nearly 800 billion dollars in the US economy in 2006. Kuwaitis own over 40% of Daimler Chrysler. I think Saudi Arabians qualify as Arabs. And It is true Israel will win and the idea of extremist taking over the gov't is very unlikely as I said before. The Muslim Brotherhood and extremism in general is not as popular in the Arab countries as the media makes it seem.

 

[mexsoldier]

i have learned a lot

thank you, i have never see the situation of that perspective, i will take more information in my next trhead
thank u

 

[metro]

imagine the beginings of a massive war, every single country is evolved, terrorist groups in lebanon, iran and egypt had taked the government of their respective countries, they have pledged an union, with them other countries in middle east join to that alliance, sudan, libya, syria, algeria, and some other fundamentalist groups, they have taken the main oil well in the area, the oil prices rise at 115 dollars per oil barrel, venezuela, as member of the opec, stoped the suminister to US, the situation is tense, some countries like mexico or rusia increase their productions, but it is not enough, the fundamentalis alliance, codenamed as IA, began terrorist attacks in the russian oil fields in siberia, US signs a treaty with mexico to protect the gulf of mexico, everithing is tense and that increases when North Korea broke negotiations with US and UN, North Korea Attacks Japan, more than 20 missiles, the korean counterpart of a tomahawk explodes in southern cities of Japan, south korea begins a naval blockade, Russia sends troops to the border with north korea, China sign a non attack pact with AI and NK, japan cry for help, and United States declares war, in less than 4 days more than 30,000 people die in NK, NK send a nuclear bomb to seoul, fortunetly, the SK air force destroys the bomb before it came to seoul, the bomb explodes in the middle of the NK mountains, meanwhile, AI starts attack over israel, although israel's air force is superior in quality, that is not the case of the quantity, but israel succsesfuly defeat lebanon, and takes the southern part of syria, france and the united kingdom just waits until europe get attacked, the united states signs a mutual protection pact with israel, quickly israel invades sirya and jordan, and takes northern egypt, but by 3 weeks after half of the israel forces have been killed, while only 20%of the AI's total did.


Now, what do you think US, Israel and Southkorea going to use, what aircraft carriers they going to use, what kind of weapons did use SK to stop the ICBM of NK, and what will happen with the world and define the status of europe going to take after some time.

note: this is only an imaginary scenario.

Definitely Noted

Economics: I don't think would play a significant role in this. Perhaps, if markets were kept open (not much of a chance, IMO, with computers shutting everything down. Maybe some people would make money speculating on oil. Pulling "all the" money out of the US=banks are closed. As GD said, China needs $$, and shutting down oil to the US (regardless of some other places not mentioned where the US can get oil from-- Nigeria and so on) can be bad for China who has to buy "$100+" oil and other raw materials. Since China has started to produce higher end items, they have cheap labor, but they buy a lot of sophisticated machinery from Germany (precise tooling, cutting, molding, etc) & other places in Europe, which has replaced a good amount of cheap labor. This situation might in fact bring the US/EU/China closer dues to mutual interests.

There are many Chinese in E. Siberia, and Russia wouldn't want and influx of NK's sent through China.

War: NK, trying to set off a nuke would most likely get a response that's worse than a round of UN sanctions.

I'm not sure about the strange alliances in the ME who IA/AI are able to form. Jordan might not be completely stable but She has friends to help an already very good military. Egypt might have a similar situation, but I don't think (let's say the Muslim Brotherhood--off the top of my head, I believe 15%-20% representation-- T-95 might know more accurately) could take over everything in Egypt w/o getting a quick response.

Syria and Lebanon might be a problem for the population in Israel, but I don't know how long Damascus would last. I doubt Israel would show "measured restraint" with Hizbollah or Syria. Europe might use naval forces off of the shore of Lebanon and Syria to shut down ports (not under any UN mandate), and/or use firepower.

If Iran is Immediately "closed down," its friends will have to think twice about what they want to do... they can become very lonely if they make the wrong choice.

I guess the Saudis or UAE aren't really that involved, unless I missed it in the scenario (I guess they're part of OPEC). I have an idea what they'd do: nothing militarily to it's west, and "smuggle oil " out.

I don't know, there's a lot going on here and this matrix of what countries "will do" is getting too complex for me.

 

[swerve]

... Look it up Saudis alone invested nearly 800 billion dollars in the US economy in 2006. ...

No they didn't. That's twice the entire GDP of Saudi Arabia. (source: World Bank)

Kuwaitis own over 40% of Daimler Chrysler.. ...

Wrong again.
% of share ownership
Emir of Kuwait - 6.9
Germany - 39.4
Other Europe - 36.3
USA - 17.0
Other - 7.3

From http://www.daimlerchrysler.com/

 

[Waylander]

Maybe one should stop to underestimate the economic might of the US and to a lesser extent the western european countries.
If the US enters a full scale war and changes from a civilian to a military economy they have the ability to outpoduce anybody else. Add to this the capabilities of the G8 (Which are naturally allies of the US) and one gets an imagination of how far away the rest still is.
For sure the withdrawal of some investments is going to hurt but it will not scratch the economic might of the US.

BTW, Daimler is going to split from Chrysler...in more unfriendly words this means they throw it away to save themselves.

 

[Brandon]

Not trying to be picky Waylander, but not all the countries of G8 are naturally allies of the U.S. Yes, 7 of them are, but Russia is definitely not one of our allies, especially with the events going on now.

 

[Waylander]

Ah, shit I meant G7.
While russia has only limited member status one always talks about G8 so it just popped out when I wrote my post.

 

[Incognito129]

Those 90-120 days would keep the economies running as they are NOW for 12-16 months. They are not meant to replace the entire consumption, but to replace lost imports.

If you only lose 20-25% of your consumption, you'll have time to respond; diversify; cut inefficient uses; increase use of alternatives, in that 12-16 month period.

And the increase in cost will cut the most lavish uses straight away in the civilian sector, so it would probably be longer.

I don't see oil as being a constrainer for waging war in that kind of (unrealistic ) scenario.

The estimate includes domestic production. Its not 12-16 months. If we lose all access to oil exports we will have a 6 month supply.

 

[Grand Danois]

The estimate includes domestic production. Its not 12-16 months. If we lose all access to oil exports we will have a 6 month supply.

Bugger then. You may be right.

But then again, I didnt assume we'd lose all our imports, only the ME sources. So that woudl make it 9-12 months?

 

[T-95]

No they didn't. That's twice the entire GDP of Saudi Arabia. (source: World Bank)



Wrong again.
% of share ownership
Emir of Kuwait - 6.9
Germany - 39.4
Other Europe - 36.3
USA - 17.0
UOther - 7.3

From http://www.daimlerchrysler.com/

1) Sorry, my mistake they invested only $700 billion in the EU and US together (and that's a conservative estimate) . Their GDP is less than $400 billion dollars but the value of their assets eclipse that figure.
http://www.saudi-american-forum.org/Newsletters/SAF_Essay_22.htm

2) I stand corrected.

 

[mexsoldier]

who want to lose their own money?

yeah, i rethinked, Arabs don't want to lose their own money, no oil exports no
Rolls Royce, no oil exports no huge bank accounts in Switzerland, no oil exports no expensive and high range of destruction weapons...

 

[metro]

The West cuts off all ocean/sea vessels going into the ME, and a couple of desalination plants/pipelines/rivers carrying water through the ME are "taken over," now you have drinking water vs. oil?!? How much for a Gallon of Cold Water? How much for a Gallon of Oil (IMO, trying to drink it, won't do the body good)? I'm just wondering because I think most people can live without Oil Flowing at 100% for a lot longer than trying to live without Drinking Water.

I Live near on the Great Lakes too, so $150/gal Water to the ME would be some nice income!

 

[Snayke]

nfloorl: nfloorl: nfloorl: nfloorl: Look it up Saudis alone invested nearly 800 billion dollars in the US economy in 2006. Kuwaitis own over 40% of Daimler Chrysler. I think Saudi Arabians qualify as Arabs. And It is true Israel will win and the idea of extremist taking over the gov't is very unlikely as I said before. The Muslim Brotherhood and extremism in general is not as popular in the Arab countries as the media makes it seem.

Per year or just total amount? There is a big difference. Also, it wouldn't matter how much of one car company the Kuwaitis own. They have to have enough influence over many MAJOR companies to even scratch any economy. You start selling shares for low prices to devalue the company and suddenly consumers and shareholders lose confidence in that company. That's only if they had enough shares in a lot of companies and in strategic industries. You could have 1 share in every single corporate entity in the US and the total would have you dropping your jaw to the ground but it still wouldn't do anything to the US economy if you suddenly sold it all. And remember, they INJECTED this money into the US economy using their own income, not American money. This is Arab money in the US economy.

But yeh, the Middle-East investing 800 billion dollars US a year into the west is like saying they have no money left in 2 years of investing. And I mean it in the literal sense where they can't pay their own salaries or provide any services to the population, becoming a defunct government.

 

[mexsoldier]

ok, arabs win this time, but america...

nobody has said how much money have America invested in ME? is a big big big sum of money, trust me...

 

[AussiePatriot]

The countries that dont have large industrial bases, the technology, resources and economy to support a prolonged war effort will not last long at all in my opinion.

A lot of countries around the world dont have the capacity to manufacture ammunition or weapons of the basic design and the nations that do manufacture weapons and ammo will be busy supplying their own needs.

Thats why most/all of the muslim middle eastern countries will grind to a bloody halt after a short time of sustained battle after no other nation resupplying them material.

Iran loses 200 MBT's, 60 APC's, 160 aircraft, 40 helicopters in one week? How do they replace them?

THEY DONT! EVER!!!

 

[swerve]

1) Sorry, my mistake they invested only $700 billion in the EU and US together (and that's a conservative estimate) . Their GDP is less than $400 billion dollars but the value of their assets eclipse that figure.
http://www.saudi-american-forum.org/Newsletters/SAF_Essay_22.htm
....

That's the total accumulated value of Saudi investments in 2003, not the amount invested last year. Says so on the site. To put it in perspective, that's < 10% of the value of foreign-owned assets in the UK. i.e. Saudi holdings, spread over all W. Europe & N. America, are < 10% of foreign-owned assets in the UK alone. Although the absolute numbers may seem large, Saudi assets are small beer compared to those of the big players, such as the UK, Japan, Germany, & of course the USA.

 

[swerve]

...However, I do believe you mean that the Saudis have 1 trillion invested into the US economy which I have heard somewhere before. A sudden pullout of 1 trillion from any economy would pretty much cause damage.....

Except that long before you'd sold it all, the prices of the assets you were selling would have dropped, so you'd actually get much less.

 

[T-95]

nobody has said how much money have America invested in ME? is a big big big sum of money, trust me...

I honestly don't know. It may be investing substantially in Iraq but I would doubt it would even come close to $100 billion in total investments in the whole of the ME (excluding Turkey, Israel). They would lose a lot more money than we would.

 

[T-95]

That's the total accumulated value of Saudi investments in 2003, not the amount invested last year. Says so on the site. To put it in perspective, that's < 10% of the value of foreign-owned assets in the UK. i.e. Saudi holdings, spread over all W. Europe & N. America, are < 10% of foreign-owned assets in the UK alone. Although the absolute numbers may seem large, Saudi assets are small beer compared to those of the big players, such as the UK, Japan, Germany, & of course the USA.

A trillion dollars gone just like that would result in a massive amount of unemployment and would be a crushing blow to the western economy.

 

[Waylander]

And who besides the western economies buys the oil of the middle east or sells them advanced tech and machinery?

Trying to play the economic war game against the west is not going to help the ME nations.
It is a game they are going to loose.
Even when they try to pull back their investments (And others already pointed out what problems for themselves this would cause) it is not going to hurt the western economies in a way which would prevent them to go onto full scale war economy and crush the ME.

It is just wishfull thinking nothing more.
I do not intend to sound arrogant or something like that but one has to see reality.