Third world war escenario, let's imagine

[mexsoldier]

imagine the beginings of a massive war, every single country is evolved, terrorist groups in lebanon, iran and egypt had taked the government of their respective countries, they have pledged an union, with them other countries in middle east join to that alliance, sudan, libya, syria, algeria, and some other fundamentalist groups, they have taken the main oil well in the area, the oil prices rise at 115 dollars per oil barrel, venezuela, as member of the opec, stoped the suminister to US, the situation is tense, some countries like mexico or rusia increase their productions, but it is not enough, the fundamentalis alliance, codenamed as IA, began terrorist attacks in the russian oil fields in siberia, US signs a treaty with mexico to protect the gulf of mexico, everithing is tense and that increases when North Korea broke negotiations with US and UN, North Korea Attacks Japan, more than 20 missiles, the korean counterpart of a tomahawk explodes in southern cities of Japan, south korea begins a naval blockade, Russia sends troops to the border with north korea, China sign a non attack pact with AI and NK, japan cry for help, and United States declares war, in less than 4 days more than 30,000 people die in NK, NK send a nuclear bomb to seoul, fortunetly, the SK air force destroys the bomb before it came to seoul, the bomb explodes in the middle of the NK mountains, meanwhile, AI starts attack over israel, although israel's air force is superior in quality, that is not the case of the quantity, but israel succsesfuly defeat lebanon, and takes the southern part of syria, france and the united kingdom just waits until europe get attacked, the united states signs a mutual protection pact with israel, quickly israel invades sirya and jordan, and takes northern egypt, but by 3 weeks after half of the israel forces have been killed, while only 20%of the AI's total did.


Now, what do you think US, Israel and Southkorea going to use, what aircraft carriers they going to use, what kind of weapons did use SK to stop the ICBM of NK, and what will happen with the world and define the status of europe going to take after some time.


note: this is only an imaginary escenario, is not racial, religious and there is not anti-any country thing.

 

[T-95]

imagine the beginings of a massive war, every single country is evolved, terrorist groups in lebanon, iran and egypt had taked the government of their respective countries, they have pledged an union, with them other countries in middle east join to that alliance, sudan, libya, syria, algeria, and some other fundamentalist groups, they have taken the main oil well in the area, the oil prices rise at 115 dollars per oil barrel, venezuela, as member of the opec, stoped the suminister to US, the situation is tense, some countries like mexico or rusia increase their productions, but it is not enough, the fundamentalis alliance, codenamed as IA, began terrorist attacks in the russian oil fields in siberia, US signs a treaty with mexico to protect the gulf of mexico, everithing is tense and that increases when North Korea broke negotiations with US and UN, North Korea Attacks Japan, more than 20 missiles, the korean counterpart of a tomahawk explodes in southern cities of Japan, south korea begins a naval blockade, Russia sends troops to the border with north korea, China sign a non attack pact with AI and NK, japan cry for help, and United States declares war, in less than 4 days more than 30,000 people die in NK, NK send a nuclear bomb to seoul, fortunetly, the SK air force destroys the bomb before it came to seoul, the bomb explodes in the middle of the NK mountains, meanwhile, AI starts attack over israel, although israel's air force is superior in quality, that is not the case of the quantity, but israel succsesfuly defeat lebanon, and takes the southern part of syria, france and the united kingdom just waits until europe get attacked, the united states signs a mutual protection pact with israel, quickly israel invades sirya and jordan, and takes northern egypt, but by 3 weeks after half of the israel forces have been killed, while only 20%of the AI's total did.


Now, what do you think US, Israel and Southkorea going to use, what aircraft carriers they going to use, what kind of weapons did use SK to stop the ICBM of NK, and what will happen with the world and define the status of europe going to take after some time.


note: this is only an imaginary escenario, is not racial, religious and there is not anti-any country thing.

Russia would not increase it's oil production. I think Russia doesn't give a rats ass on what might be "troubling" the west and they would certainly not sacrifice such high oil profits to help them out and ease their troubles. The situation would remain tough for the west, NATO as whole and Israel. And how did they manage to invade Lebanon (hezbollah), Syria, Jordan and take northern Egypt (which basically means they invaded Egypt) without getting two thirds of it's army slaughtered? And they did all this with 600,000 troops against well over 2,500,000 troops? The Arabs would not win but the Israeli army would be worthless and ineffective after such a conflict because of the numbers lost.

Where is Saudi in all this? Is Russia with AI or the west? Dose the US move to invade Iran? And what happens to all the troops that they committed to Iraq? Does Iran hit the Green Zone in Iraq with chemical weapons and kill tens of thousands of US troops? How the hell did SK stop a ballistics missile with an airplane???

 

[Son_of_rain]

Yes Russia, won't move a finger to help the west. Moreover she will try to make them fall deeper. Because then the will be able again to become empire.
also the alliance between all the Arabic countries is problematic for today.

 

[T-95]

Yes Russia, won't move a finger to help the west. Moreover she will try to make them fall deeper. Because then the will be able again to become empire.
also the alliance between all the Arabic countries is problematic for today.

It's not to become an empire it's just because they don't care. China wouldn't care either and won't move to help the west out, in fact it might even support the Arab countries. The same with Russia they'd probably help the Arabs. America and all NATO nations would have trouble keeping the war up because of oil embargoes and the price of oil (money and fuel are essential for war), the Arab countries, China and Russia won't have trouble with oil or money because of the huge cash reserves and oil wealth. Israel won't have trouble with oil or money (I think). But the overwhelming manpower thrown at them will mean that they will have to commit all their resources to fighting the war and repelling Arab/ME forces in a multi-front war with Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt and Iran. NK would be invaded by the US no problem but will pound SK and any European country with in reach) with hundreds of BM's before it can be invaded.

Also the thing about Arab countries being in an alliance or even the thought of extremists taking over the gov't is unlikely. The Muslim Brother Hood fags get their asses kicked in Egypt by police every day and then thrown in jail and their not even that popular I think maybe 12% of pop. like them. Plus with no weapons how are they gunna take over the gov't? The Egyptian people like this other Egyptian guy named Amr Moussa or something, he's the Arab League Secretary-General, they want him to be president.

 

[XaNDeR]

This scenario is writen very complex , can you please write it a little more understandable , maybe like this :

1. blablabla

2.Us starts blablabla

3.China signs blabblabla

 

[mexsoldier]

ok

sorry, i don't speak a lot of english, just excuse me for my spelling , but yeah all of the stuff you said is correct, but this is only imaginary, and why russia won't help? she maybe is waiting for the US destruction...

 

[mexsoldier]

pd

and thank you for take a time and watch my thread, i will write more for this page.

 

[mexsoldier]

and remember fundamentalist

they are crazyyy, you don't know what they going to do...

 

[Grand Danois]

I know the rough numbers, but don't have the time to do it properly.

But it would be interesting to see what fraction of the oil that the US and Europe consumes actually come from Russia and the Middle East.

 

[T-95]

I know the rough numbers, but don't have the time to do it properly.

But it would be interesting to see what fraction of the oil that the US and Europe consumes actually come from Russia and the Middle East.

The US gets 20% of it's oil from ME dunno how much from Russia. I don't know about Europe but i think it's safe to assume that Russia and ME supply a major portion of their oil (and gas) needs. Not to mention the nearly 1 trillion dollars Arab countries invest in America every year they can just pull out all their investment and make their economy crash and I'm sure that the 20% of oil supply gone, high oil prices and huge multi-front war effort would hamper any efforts to make the US economy rebound. Also I think 2/3 of Europe's oil comes through the Suez canal which Egypt (with the largest navy in the ME) can just block from coming through the canal and put choke on Israel, Europe and the west in general. It would be a tough war for both sides.

 

[Grand Danois]

The US gets 20% of it's oil from ME dunno how much from Russia. I don't know about Europe but i think it's safe to assume that Russia and ME supply a major portion of their oil (and gas) needs. Not to mention the nearly 1 trillion dollars Arab countries invest in America every year they can just pull out all their investment and make their economy crash and I'm sure that the 20% of oil supply gone, high oil prices and huge multi-front war effort would hamper any efforts to make the US economy rebound. Also I think 2/3 of Europe's oil comes through the Suez canal which Egypt (with the largest navy in the ME) can just block from coming through the canal and put choke on Israel, Europe and the west in general. It would be a tough war for both sides.

Going by memory. US and Europe both produce more than half their oil needs. The rest is spread out between South America, Africa, and of course the ME.

The amount of internally produced and imported (Brazil) biofuels are on the increase.

Oil reserves in both US and Europe vary between 90-120 days of full consumption.

The consumer prices may go through the roof. But there would be plenty of oil to wage war with.

 

[T-95]

Going by memory. US and Europe both produce more than half their oil needs. The rest is spread out between South America, Africa, and of course the ME.

The amount of internally produced and imported (Brazil) biofuels are on the increase.

Oil reserves in both US and Europe vary between 90-120 days of full consumption.

The consumer prices may go through the roof. But there would be plenty of oil to wage war with.

120 days of oil supply IMO won't be enough for a third world war.

 

[Grand Danois]

120 days of oil supply IMO won't be enough for a third world war.

Those 90-120 days would keep the economies running as they are NOW for 12-16 months. They are not meant to replace the entire consumption, but to replace lost imports.

If you only lose 20-25% of your consumption, you'll have time to respond; diversify; cut inefficient uses; increase use of alternatives, in that 12-16 month period.

And the increase in cost will cut the most lavish uses straight away in the civilian sector, so it would probably be longer.

I don't see oil as being a constrainer for waging war in that kind of (unrealistic ) scenario.

 

[T-95]

Those 90-120 days would keep the economies running as they are NOW for 12-16 months. They are not meant to replace the entire consumption, but to replace lost imports.

If you only lose 20-25% of your consumption, you'll have time to respond; diversify; cut inefficient uses; increase use of alternatives, in that 12-16 month period.

And the increase in cost will cut the most lavish uses straight away in the civilian sector, so it would probably be longer.

I don't see oil as being a constrainer for waging war in that kind of (unrealistic ) scenario.

But I'm pretty sure the trillion dollars being pulled out would be seeing that the US gov't is 800 billion dollars in debt. I'm pretty sure that's 1/13 of the US economy ebing lost right there. Not to mention closure of canals and shipping lanes.

 

[Grand Danois]

But I'm pretty sure the trillion dollars being pulled out would be seeing that the US gov't is 800 billion dollars in debt. I'm pretty sure that's 1/13 of the US economy ebing lost right there. Not to mention closure of canals and shipping lanes.

Not disputing (or discussing) the economic effects. Just pointing out that oil won't be a physical constrainer for waging the actual war.

OTOH think of the loss of revenue to the oil producers in the ME, the loss of export markets to China, etc...

World GDP would plummet.

 

[T-95]

Not disputing (or discussing) the economic effects. Just pointing out that oil won't be a physical constrainer for waging the actual war.

OTOH think of the loss of revenue to the oil producers in the ME, the loss of export markets to China, etc...

World GDP would plummet.

There are always buyers for oil so the ME countries won't suffer and if anything their oil revenues would actually go up. China might suffer because American won't be able to afford buy as much as they did before and it would leave a lot of Americans unemployed or underpaid but the US's economy won't suffer to the extent that it would make major difference in China's exports(America would feel it harder than China would). The world GDP as whole would plummet because the west makes up a major if not most of the worlds economy. ME countries GDP's (excluding Turkey which would suffer significantly) would go down by a small margin and as I said before for some countries in the ME it will actually go up quite significantly.

 

[Grand Danois]

There are always buyers for oil so the ME countries won't suffer and if anything their oil revenues would actually go up. China might suffer because American won't be able to afford buy as much as they did before and it would leave a lot of Americans unemployed or underpaid but the US's economy won't suffer to the extent that it would make major difference in China's exports(America would feel it harder than China would). The world GDP as whole would plummet because the west makes up a major if not most of the worlds economy. ME countries GDP's (excluding Turkey which would suffer significantly) would go down by a small margin and as I said before for some countries in the ME it will actually go up quite significantly.

I pointing towards "war potential" in case of a "WW3", not the economical fallout.

But anyway, I'll address some points. The US is the major export market for China. That means US dollars are being spent buying up oil for production in China. If the US doesn't buy, then China won't buy oil. If oil output in the ME remains the same but the customer goes way... Then oil prices would plummet. Demand/consumption.

Labour cost in China is small compared to the cost raw materials. The West is the other way round. Cost of goods from China follows the cost of raw material, most significantly oil. China will have to absorb teh rise in cost in oil vis a vis the market.

EU is a lesser export market for China, but also a significant one.

The customer disappears. Who else can afford to buy oil and goods in these quantities - and pay a good price.

No. You cannot look at war potential from this perspective.

Realise that the Western navies will have total control of all SLOCs from day 1. Suez may be out of reach, and trade may be denied from a few countries by their own choice, but the rest is open. That means the entire world is available.

The oceans will be denied to all hostiles or entities working for those. They will have no trade except with neighbours they share land borders with.

Resources wise, US and Europe cannot be shut down. Everybody else can.

 

[Brandon]

This situation is unrealistic, even if we're pretending. I know everyone thinks that the Arabs want to kill and attack the U.S., but that is just the extremists. If you look, the United States has military bases in almost every Arab country and despite tensions, still have the U.S. Military Training Mission to Saudi Arabia, where our troops help theres. We wouldn't sell F-15's and AWACS to Saudi Arabia if we didn't have a good relationship. Of course, our relationship with Israel is strong, but we also large bases in the U.A.E., Bahrain, etc. I believe a more realistic scenario would be the U.S., the Arabs, and Israel (yes, I said that correctly), going against a common enemy, Iran.

 

[T-95]

This situation is unrealistic, even if we're pretending. I know everyone thinks that the Arabs want to kill and attack the U.S., but that is just the extremists. If you look, the United States has military bases in almost every Arab country and despite tensions, still have the U.S. Military Training Mission to Saudi Arabia, where our troops help theres. We wouldn't sell F-15's and AWACS to Saudi Arabia if we didn't have a good relationship. Of course, our relationship with Israel is strong, but we also large bases in the U.A.E., Bahrain, etc. I believe a more realistic scenario would be the U.S., the Arabs, and Israel (yes, I said that correctly), going against a common enemy, Iran.

I have to agree with you. The Iranians keep involving them self in Arab affairs and it's starting to make people mad. Not to mention that they can safely be blamed for what happened in Lebanon in 2006. But Arabs would never join Israel to go against a Muslim country that's just fantasizing about a world that will never exist.

 

[Snayke]

Not to mention the nearly 1 trillion dollars Arab countries invest in America every year they can just pull out all their investment and make their economy crash and I'm sure that the 20% of oil supply gone, high oil prices and huge multi-front war effort would hamper any efforts to make the US economy rebound.

I'm sorry did you just claim the Arabs invest 1 trillion dollars a YEAR into the US economy? Is this USD or other? If you are claiming the Arabs are buying into the US economy with 1 trillion USD a year, could you tell me where they get this money from?

The Middle East and North Africa have a total GDP of 1.34 trillion USD(2002 estimate). What you are claiming is that the Arabs can own the entire US economy in 12 years as the US GDP is totalled at around 12 trillion USD. :/ They must not spend a lot on their own countries.

However, I do believe you mean that the Saudis have 1 trillion invested into the US economy which I have heard somewhere before. A sudden pullout of 1 trillion from any economy would pretty much cause damage.

As for the scenario, how did terrorists just seize all these governments? I'd say Israel would act right after a terrorist group such as Hezbollah seized power of a nation, let alone several. Also I don't believe that things would go so smoothly. Transition would not go so easily as you have the problem of loyalists.

China would keep to their neutrality as they usually do. They would not benefit in aligning themselves with the IA. The Chinese have adopted western views on politics and have postured themselves as such according to benefits. That's why they and the US are such large trading partners.

Russia would get involved as they have been attacked as stated in the OP by this IA. That's pretty much a declaration of war. But I ask, how did a force from IA randomly waltz into Sibera? It doesn't border the Middle-East and its quite far away. Also, how does Russia send troops to the North Korean border? They don't have a border with North Korea nor would the Chinese allow them to. It's not like they have great relations.

In a war between Israel and those nations, Israel would most definately win in a defensive war as they have done in the past. As for numbers, someone mentioned 600,000 vs 2,500,000? There is a difference in quality that you must remember. I don't think Israel would bother invading. Once they eliminate their military capabilities, what's the point of invading? Occupying their territory would not serve them any good. The US would aid Israel without a pact.


As for North Korea, that seems a bit random but ok. South Korean forces are not to be taken lightly. They have the economic power to fund a well equipped military (as they have right now). At 600,000 strong, they can defend themselves quite well from a North Korean invasion. Having 1 million soldiers does not automatically make the North Korean military stronger. There's the problem of providing continuous supplies to their soldiers and with surperior air power from South Korea and the USA, they would be hard pressed to rush forward supplies. Also with Japanese involvement (who also have quite a fine military), North Korea wouldn't stand much of a chance having to fight off the air forces of South Korea, USA and Japan while having no control of the seas which allows invasion points all along their coast IF they were to try and use their manpower against the South Korean military. Also there are US forces deployed in South Korea who could also render assistance although a small insignificant force, anything helps.

Anyway, probably some wrong bits in there but oh well.