A German victory in Russia was not considered unlikely by many in the West, who just like the Groefiz (Greatest leader of all times ) underestimated the resolve and the ressources of the Soviet people and their regime. One could have imagined the transportation of oil from the formerly Russian oilfields to Japan by rail and in the summer by ship, if the USA remained out of the war. This in turn might have induced Japan to bind the Siberian forces in the east, with unknown effect on Barbarossa.
Firn
How Long Japan has to wait until says German was able to completely out run Stalin's forces..?
If operations Barbarossa was focus enough to take the oil fields in the caucacus (and not as it turn out divided German forces by also attacking Moscow)..even then by achieving completed controls on Soviets oil fiels in Caucacus..the german will at leats (at best) need another year to secure lines for transporting raw materials to Japan by Siberia.
Historical data show that Japan only have few months of raw materials to support her manufacturing capabilties and military readiness.
Historical oil data productions and raw materials sources at that time already show that the significant oli and refineries sources in East and South East Asia at that time lies on Dutch East Indies and British Malaya. Japan did not have time to wait for another year..Japan has to get those materials ASAP. Thus British and Dutch colonies in SEA was the only answered.
If the Chinese oils on western China already fully developed as it stands now/present time..then Japan will not has to move down south to get the raw materials she needed. But the raw materials maps situations on the 40's still show the developed and fully ready raw material sources was only on SEA.
The American colony at Philipines did not provide the raw materials Japan needed. Philipnes and the US only srve as stumbling blocks for Japan to attack British and the Dutch in SEA.
That the questions that I asked on my previous posts on this thread... Will US do nothing and let the Japan takes on British Malaya and Dutch East Indies..if Japan leave the US alone..??
If the conclusions show that the US will do nothing if the Japan did not strike first..then I believe the Japan's Higfh Command will be happy not to attack Pearl Harbour and latter on the US possitions on Philipines..
However as it's turned out that the US will not let Japan has the upper hand in Asia by absorbing the raw materials on British and Dutch colonies in SEA.
If the US won't let Japan took Brirish Malaya and Sutch East Indies...then no other options left for Japan to attack Pearl Harbour..
The questions on this US will's that essentials on determining wheather Japan has to attack US or not on achieving her goal to be self sufficients in Raw Materials..
Once they decided that the US will was strong to hindered Japan's goals on acquaring SEA raw materials...then no other choices left than to attack first and try her best to neutralises as much as US Pacific Fleet that Japan could.
And by doing this Japan has to commited her forces fully on facing the US thus can't left much resources on Taking USSR forces on Siberia.
Thus actually it's left the questions..why Hitler willing to proclamed war on US whille the Japan has not shown indications that she willing to take on the USSR at same time still doing her projects taking on the US and the Allies acrross Pacific and Asia.
Historical reports show that the US publics still much divided on the Nazi's anyways by the 1941.
