Why ASEAN matters - in the era of great power competition

[Ananda]

How Southeast Asia Might React in a Potential Military Conflict Over Taiwan

Beijing could seek to limit the spillover from a Taiwan conflict into the South China Sea and offer to assist in evacuation operations for Southeast Asian citizens.

carnegieendowment.org

How ASEAN react to Chinese Taiwan conflict, seems majority of the members will see how's the invasion perceived in happening. If invasion being unprovoked, most likely negative to China toward supporting more active Taiwan. However if it is considered China invading Taiwan after being cornered by US, then potentially overall majority will stay in the fences.

This study also related in my opinion why China become hostile more to Philippines, despites Vietnam and Malaysia (as examples) even have more military presences in SCS. The studies that shown most likely Philippines become the 'lone wolf' from other ASEAN members, on potential bring outside/external power in SCS. Perhaps that's what seems make China unproportionaly single out Philippines in confrontation.

Either way, the studies just strengthen the assessment on ASEAN dynamics. Especially against China and US conflicts.

 

[Ananda]

Indonesia, Australia cement ties as ‘significant’ defence pact finalised

The move comes as Indonesia’s president-elect Prabowo Subianto prepares to take office later this year.

www.aljazeera.com

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.zawya.com/en/world/australia-indonesia-agree-defence-pact-l0d36dgp%3famp=1

x.com

x.com

Put it here and not in Indonesian or Australian thread, as this in my opinion can also effect the rest of ASEAN. Indonesia as biggest member and Australia also as ASEAN southern neighbors and already have defense pact with Malaysia and Singapore, can increase defense cooperation and operational tied in.

It's off course will not be aim toward China SCS, as it is diplomatically undesirable at this stage. However it is not going to hinder media and political pundits on calculating the security consequences. Indonesia and Australia both increasingly dependent with China businesses, but both also increasingly wary toward Chinese defense move. Not surprising that both shares common concern with behemoth in the north.

However both Indo and Aussie defence pact cooperation already facing up and down for decades. Domestics politics mode always prevalence toward stability defense mood between two neighbors. Even now some in Indonesia always put suspicion toward the southern neighbors on Papua issue, and I believe some in Australia also still raise concern on Indonesia stable commitment against China and human rights.

Still the matter of finding balance is increasingly matter for both nation policies makers.

 

[Ananda]

CNA reporting in first minute the ramming of Philippines and Chinese vessels on SCS. Both claiming other vessel that initiated the ramming. Guess depending on each perspective.

Then at 1:05 report this year Super Garuda Shield military exercise. The exercise that begin in 2006 between Indonesian and US Army, now already evolve on joint branches exercises and already involve regional neighbors. As ussual Indonesia will claim the exercise is not directed to anyone in the region.

The scope of exercise now branches to include cyber warfare, shown increasing importance on cyber security in current stage of military and social development. Although US and Indonesia provide most personal in exercise, in some way this exercise already becoming joint ASEAN drills.

 

[Ananda]

https://www.reuters.com/world/indonesia-join-brics-bloc-full-member-brazil-says-2025-01-06/

Indonesia officially becomes full member of BRICS bloc – DW – 01/07/2025

The BRICS bloc of developing nations has a tenth full member: Indonesia. The world's fourth-most populous nation officially joined the group on Monday, alongside India, Russia, China and others.

www.dw.com

If this is true (as I don't see official Indonesia announcement), then potentially it will be followed by Malaysia and Thailand that already BRICS Partners as Indonesia status at this moment. For that I put this in ASEAN thread as if all three ASEAN members increase their status from Partners to Members, then it will be interesting move on part of ASEAN diplomacy.

For Indonesia personaly this raise question:

1. Indonesia and US relation as Trump already shown hostility to BRICS move on Dedolarisation. Wondering if Trump will support Boeing and rumours LM move on Indonesia fighter competition.
2. How this going to affect Indonesia pararel bid for OECD. No secret Indonesia hope to gain access to both grouping.

Whatever the outcome on all three ASEAN members status in BRICS, this shown ASEAN continues balancing act between Global South rising powers and Western especially US ones.

Add:
No official Indonesian confirmation yet, but China already make statement welcoming Indonesia in to BRICS.

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson’s Remarks on Indonesia Becoming a Full Member of BRICS_Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

https://www.reuters.com/world/indonesia-join-brics-bloc-full-member-brazil-says-2025-01-06/

Indonesia officially becomes full member of BRICS bloc – DW – 01/07/2025

The BRICS bloc of developing nations has a tenth full member: Indonesia. The world's fourth-most populous nation officially joined the group on Monday, alongside India, Russia, China and others.

www.dw.com

If this is true (as I don't see official Indonesia announcement), then potentially it will be followed by Malaysia and Thailand that already BRICS Partners as Indonesia status at this moment. For that I put this in ASEAN thread as if all three ASEAN members increase their status from Partners to Members, then it will be interesting move on part of ASEAN diplomacy.

For Indonesia personaly this raise question:

1. Indonesia and US relation as Trump already shown hostility to BRICS move on Dedolarisation. Wondering if Trump will support Boeing and rumours LM move on Indonesia fighter competition.
2. How this going to affect Indonesia pararel bid for OECD. No secret Indonesia hope to gain access to both grouping.

Whatever the outcome on all three ASEAN members status in BRICS, this shown ASEAN continues balancing act between Global South rising powers and Western especially US ones.

Add:
No official Indonesian confirmation yet, but China already make statement welcoming Indonesia in to BRICS.

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson’s Remarks on Indonesia Becoming a Full Member of BRICS_Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

I just found two articles, one is from Antara, the other from Jakartapost. I expect we can regard this is a confirmation of the BRICS-membership.
Ekonom nilai keanggotaan BRICS tingkatkan posisi tawar RI di mata OECD - ANTARA News

Indonesia joins BRICS bloc as full member - Asia & Pacific - The Jakarta Post

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Well, it seems things are now escalating between Cambodia and Thailand.

Thailand seals border with Cambodia after military clashes kill at least 12 people

Ruzie tussen Thailand en Cambodja escaleert: burgers gedood en grens gesloten

There are reports that Cambodia fired two rockets from BM-21 launchers, and that Thailand sent 6 F-16s to bomb targets in Cambodia.

Hopefully other ASEAN countries can cool down the situation and convince the two countries to cease fire.

Edit
If these are really recent videos clips from the last two days between the two countries, than it means there are more than 2 rockets fired by the Cambodian BM-21 launcher(s). A whole salvo, at least 10 rockets.

 

[Ananda]

Why are Thailand and Cambodia engaged in a border conflict?

Territory mapped during France’s colonial rule is behind clash that has exposed tensions between the countries

www.theguardian.com

I suspect internal politics both in Thai and Cambodia matters. Current Thai PM family and Hun Sen actually in good terms. However her call to Hun Sen being leaked and create problem for her, that now she's basically suspended.

Whether now Hun Sen or Thai strong Military want to make points to each other, I suspect matters like that happening.

 

[koxinga]

Yes. Hun Sen and Thai conservatives both benefit indirectly from this, while the root cause is not resolved

What is wild though are dumb Western commenters insisting that Cambodia must be taking orders from China CCP to do this.

 

[Ananda]

Some photos already circulating online of Cambodian positions being overun by Thai's army. This batch I take from Keris FB, but they also got it from on-line sources. If this is origate on Hun Sen's action, I don't know what he's thinking on baiting stronger opponent. If this is flexing results from Thailand Military faction, then definitely it is aiming to give massage to Thaksin's faction on their recent political rises.

Either way, perhaps this is why Cambodia that asking more for ceasefire Cambodia calls for ‘immediate ceasefire’ with Thailand as deadly clashes enter a third day, while their army of online PPL that send massage Cambodia want peace. While Thai's online PPL act more demanding for Cambodia come clean to admit they create the border crisis.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

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Some photos already circulating online of Cambodian positions being overun by Thai's army. This batch I take from Keris FB, but they also got it from on-line sources. If this is origate on Hun Sen's action, I don't what he's thinking on baiting stronger opponent. If this is flexing results from Thailand Military faction, then definitely it is aiming to give massage to Thaksin's faction on their recent political rises.

Either way, perhaps this is why Cambodia that asking more for ceasefire Cambodia calls for ‘immediate ceasefire’ with Thailand as deadly clashes enter a third day, while their army of online PPL that send massage Cambodia want peace. While Thai's online PPL act more demanding for Cambodia come clean to admit they create the border crisis.

From which i see on internet, the Cambodian army is really primitive. Bare chested amateurs who look like underfunded rebels and firing chinese made machine guns which jam every time after a couple of rounds.

And the air force is completely hopeless.

 

[Vivendi]

Nathan Ruser has made a detailed timeline of events on the border between Thailand and Cambodia: https://x.com/Nrg8000/status/1948587538538762530

Unrolled thread:
Thread by @Nrg8000 on Thread Reader App

So it seems this round of tension started in February of this year, when a group of Cambodian soldiers escorted civilians to visit an ancient temple. The group reportedly sang the Cambodian national anthem and was later stopped by Thai security officials.

Hopefully things will calm down. With Thailand being a US ally and Cambiodia a "friend" of China, is there a risk this can turn into another proxy war?

 

[koxinga]

Hopefully things will calm down. With Thailand being a US ally and Cambiodia a "friend" of China, is there a risk this can turn into another proxy war?

I am curious @Vivendi , on why Western commenters continue to allude to some Chinese play here or see it from that lens.

As you pointed, this has roots in a long running dispute. It is also clear that the current flare up is being used by the Hun family to strengthen their domestic position, and it got out of control.

SEA states have agency. Those reasons might well be petty, self serving and short sighted, but still, they have their own motives. Sometimes it aligns to a larger power agenda and they go along (e.g Indochina conflicts in the 70s ); but it is more of one using another.

It is also weird for me to see Thailand being described as an US ally, since they have been moving closer to the Chinese orbit in recent years.(E.g being rejected for F35s, buying Chinese subs, VT4 tanks)

 

[Ananda]

Thailand and Cambodia agree to talks in Malaysia after four days of fighting

It comes after US President Donald Trump told both sides to press for a ceasefire.

www.bbc.com

This will settle within ASEAN framework. Don't understand why some Western commentators bring US and China factors on this dispute. This is matter of their internal politics, and ASEAN will try to handle through ASEAN way.

 

[Vivendi]

I am curious @Vivendi , on why Western commenters continue to allude to some Chinese play here or see it from that lens.

I have not seen many Western commenters allude to Chinese play. However, this is China's "back yard" so even if they did not initiate this, they will play a role. The question is what role they want to play.

It is also weird for me to see Thailand being described as an US ally, since they have been moving closer to the Chinese orbit in recent years.(E.g being rejected for F35s, buying Chinese subs, VT4 tanks)

Thailand is still officially and literally a US ally, please read the first sentence on this official US web site: Thailand: Background and U.S. Relations | Congress.gov | Library of Congress

You are of course right that Thailand is moving closer to China, but as of today, Thailand remains a treaty ally of the US. As for the F-35, a number of countries around the world has been denied access to this 5. gen stealth jet, including other US allies like Turkey, and several countries in the Middle East. A number of reasons were listed for why Thailand could not get the F-35, including full order books and lack of infrastructure in Thailand, however one key factor was probably security concerns. U.S.-Thai Military Alliance Is At A Crossroads | Aviation Week Network

 

[Vivendi]

Thailand and Cambodia agree to talks in Malaysia after four days of fighting

It comes after US President Donald Trump told both sides to press for a ceasefire.

www.bbc.com

This will settle within ASEAN framework. Don't understand why some Western commentators bring US and China factors on this dispute. This is matter of their internal politics, and ASEAN will try to handle through ASEAN way.

ASEAN seems very ineffective to me. Most likely this will be handled through bilateral negotiations, and the main (and perhaps only) role of any other ASEAN country will be to host the negotiations. Analysts agree with me:

Thailand-Cambodia clashes pose a serious test to ASEAN centrality | Lowy Institute

ASEAN has largely failed to play a significant role in the Myanmar crisis, and also in the disputes in the SEA waters, mainly triggered by Chinese aggression. It is not clear to me why you believe this crisis will be any different. Unless you simply refer to the above mentioned role of one ASEAN country hosting the talks between the two parties.

 

[Ananda]

It is not clear to me why you believe this crisis will be any different. Unless you simply refer to the above mentioned role of one ASEAN country hosting the talks between the two parties.

People in this region will deal their own way, and not base some Western analysts and commentator. Again this is nothing to do with China and only minimal US factor no matter what Trump says.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

This border problem between Cambodia and Thailand exists already for decades, and over the years they sometimes exchange fire. ASEAN countries are not always compact, same with the EU, OPEC and other organizations. But all ASEAN-countries prefer peace in the area, only the way to convince other states to start peace negotiations is done in a polite and gentle way, often not in public. Totally different with the american way, by demanding and blackmailing.
If a cease fire will come between Cambodia and Thailand, big chance Trump will claim it is all because him and his great diplomatic skills. And after this he will probably demand the Nobel Price for Peace.

 

[Ananda]

Thailand, Cambodia agree unconditional ceasefire

5 days of cross-border hostilities to end at midnight

asia.nikkei.com

Like I, Koxinga, Sandhi said time to time, this is nothing to do with China or US. It is more their own political flexing. For that so far neighborhood approach more workable. Talking ASEAN doesn't work because Myanmar or SCS is clearly Western superiority complex. Myanmar already have internal civil war even before Military Junta in power. SCS being negotiate with more complex approach as China even have dispute with ASEAN neighbors on SCS, but also top investors and trade partners for most ASEAN.

Thinking that Euro logic has to work with Asian logic, clearly that drive some Western analysts or Commentaries. Again those that said that only have western side mindset superiority.

Trump will claim that he is the one that drove this ceasefire, same as what he claim with recent Indo-Pakistani ones. However all this so far shown the fact China or US card has minimal effect on this dispute.

 

[koxinga]

ASEAN seems very ineffective to me. Most likely this will be handled through bilateral negotiations, and the main (and perhaps only) role of any other ASEAN country will be to host the negotiations. Analysts agree with me:

ASEAN has largely failed to play a significant role in the Myanmar crisis, and also in the disputes in the SEA waters, mainly triggered by Chinese aggression. It is not clear to me why you believe this crisis will be any different. Unless you simply refer to the above mentioned role of one ASEAN country hosting the talks between the two parties.

Oh it is absolutely ineffective, if your yardstick is to induce positive change in either Myanmar or Cambodia or any other disputes.

Part of that reason is the belief that while you can encourage, cajole, persuade, ASEAN's construct specifically, the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) of 1976, sets out non-interference as a core tenet (but also renunciation of the threat or use of force).

While individual States can hold diverse views (E.g on the 2021 Myanmar Coup, condemnation vary in strengths), the collective position is to avoid puntative measures, but just.... talk. Therefore, I am not surprised that at the end of the day, it took sticks (EU/US sanctions) to play the bad cop, while ASEAN played the good cop/disappointed parent when it came to Myanmar.

@Ananda - I would say there are some truth on the effectiveness or the lack of ASEAN as I have seen it up close. The Five Point of Consensus (Myanmar) and Code of Conduct for Managing Disputes in SCS have not gotten anywhere but no one will be willing to admit the real reasons and will keep talking and raising it up. In the case of this conflict, it also shows significant limitations. Current Sec-Gen for ASEAN is H.E. DR. Kao Kim Hourn from Cambodia. Predictably, he kept his mouth shut.

Also, to be factually accurate, western values such as democracy and human rights are explicitly part of ASEAN, through 2003 Declaration of ASEAN Concord II and the 2008 ASEAN Charter. However, they are just words. Pragmatism is probably the universal value as well as non-interference, which drives ASEAN's behaviour.

 

[Ananda]

However, they are just words. Pragmatism is probably the universal value as well as non-interference, which drives ASEAN's behaviour.

Agree on that, that's why I said the western logic is not going to work entirely with Asian logic, in this case ASEAN logic. For that calling ASEAN ineffective because what happened on Myanmar or how ASEAN conduct interaction with China on LCS, clearly Western logic superiority bias.

ASEAN not working on pushing common values, Pragmatism on making compromise is ASEAN logic. Saying that ineffective because thats not how EU work (as example), clearly trying to push one yardstick to others on how to behave.

ASEAN effectiveness is to make the region relatively can work with each other, and not pushing values to one another. ASEAN being build to make common ground on how to have working neighbourhood relationship. Remember one of common push for ASEAN was not having someone like Soekarno coming again in the region and try to force his ideas (in this case revolutionary ideas) in the neighbourhood.